BrianM

Doug Baldwin 2018 Outlook

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He fell from WR9 to WR14 in PPR last year.   Had one more TD, but quite a drop in catches and yards.

 

Graham and Richardson are gone, and thusfar only replaced with middling talent.

 

Seattle as a whole seems to be fading a bit, with the Rams already a top team and perhaps SF on the rise.

 

So, what of Baldwin in 2018?

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Potentially career year coming.    I do think they draft a wr but that’s usually not a hinderance right away. 

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One would have to think there are more guys added to the mix, but that wouldn't really bug me.   Right now outside of Baldwin we have Lockett, Jaron Brown, McEvoy, Ed Dickson, and Vannett.   There's plenty for Baldwin even if they add two strong candidates for targets.   

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Baldwin's ADP will be lower than previous years, and he'll be a bargain most likely.

 

This could this also be a sign that they have more confidence in Lockett stepping up.  I'm thinking this could also be Lockett's career year as well, and he can probably be bought for virtually nothing.

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22 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Potentially career year coming.    I do think they draft a wr but that’s usually not a hinderance right away. 

 

 

 I doubt this is his career year. I think you get what you will always get with this offense last couple of seasons. . frsustration if you dont' own Wilson. Some weeks they put up a ton of points and the next the points are not there. Baldwin will finish somewhere from wr9-15. I don't think he fills up the hole left by Paul Richardson who made his money with the deep ball which was a testament to Richardsons emerging play.  I think someone else steps into that hole. 

Baldwin is the wr to own in SEA but i'm not bullish on  SEA overall as an offense.

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My gut is telling me that this is the year the burden finally becomes too much for Russ, and he has a bit of a lull or injury.  He is capable of putting up stinkers (first couple of weeks and every game vs the Rams lately come to mind) and i'm thinking these happen more frequently.  That has me cautious on Baldwin.  However, I have no issue with Baldwin's game, and volume has to be coming............including potential garbage time as this gutted defense retools a bit.    

 

All of that is speculation of course.  The one statistical nugget I can throw out there is this-  Russ just came off a QB1 overall season........yet Baldwin's yardage and catches were down from the year prior.    Jimmy Graham was relevant, sure, but Baldwin had one more TD than he did in 2016, and that's Graham's wheelhouse.    Am I reading too much into this? 

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16 minutes ago, BrianM said:

The one statistical nugget I can throw out there is this-  Russ just came off a QB1 overall season........yet Baldwin's yardage and catches were down from the year prior.    Jimmy Graham was relevant, sure, but Baldwin had one more TD than he did in 2016, and that's Graham's wheelhouse.    Am I reading too much into this? 

 

 

Wilson was throwing the deep ball more to Richardson and making those big chunky plays. There were games Baldwin wasnt even on the radar. Take a look at the game vs the Texans where Wilson played lights out but baldwin was MIA as anexample

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6 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

 I doubt this is his career year. I think you get what you will always get with this offense last couple of seasons. . frsustration if you dont' own Wilson. Some weeks they put up a ton of points and the next the points are not there. Baldwin will finish somewhere from wr9-15. I don't think he fills up the hole left by Paul Richardson who made his money with the deep ball which was a testament to Richardsons emerging play.  I think someone else steps into that hole. 

Baldwin is the wr to own in SEA but i'm not bullish on  SEA overall as an offense.

Graham is gone as well, defense is falling apart.  I don't see how anyone could possibly think this won't be a career year.

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22 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Graham is gone as well, defense is falling apart.  I don't see how anyone could possibly think this won't be a career year.

 

Agreed that on paper, everything is set up for Baldwin to have a great season, possibly even a career year.

 

SEA lost 2 top targets from 2017 (Jimmy G and Richardson), including major RZ weapon in Graham.

 

Defense will seemingly take another big step back, leading to the team having to score more points.

 

Run game does not seem like it will take any significant steps forward, meaning the team will continue to have to rely on Wilson and the passing game to move the ball and score points.

 

Baldwin will continue to be Russel's most experienced and trusted WR option.

 

Whether or not everything materializes into big stats for Baldwin remains to be seen but the reasoning behind the expectations is really hard to argue against.

Edited by J.T. Marlin

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So those with Baldwin optimism, you're grabbing him as a top 10 WR?  Or is that too high?    

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52 minutes ago, BrianM said:

So those with Baldwin optimism, you're grabbing him as a top 10 WR?  Or is that too high?    

 

Not too high at all, considering he's reached that 2 of the past 3 seasons and his main RZ target competition is gone.

 

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Thanks- trying to establish an expected ceiling for his ADP.    It doesn't sound like he's going to have a wide ranging ADP across leagues.    A

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

So those with Baldwin optimism, you're grabbing him as a top 10 WR?  Or is that too high?    

He's finished as a top 12 WR three years in a row.  I don't see why not.

 

I could still see them trading Earl Thomas, which would obviously make their defense even worse.

Edited by RMJ_12

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On 4/19/2018 at 2:03 PM, RMJ_12 said:

Graham is gone as well, defense is falling apart.  I don't see how anyone could possibly think this won't be a career year.

 

I'm not saying that Baldwin won't have a career year, but I am more skeptical.

 

Last year Wilson threw more than ever; in fact, he throws more and more every year: 393 (2012), 407 (13), 452 (14), 483 (15), 546 (16), 553 (2017).

 

Yet percentage-wise, he threw less to Baldwin despite the increased pass attempts.

 

On one hand, you might say, Seattle sucked so hard last year, Wilson had better start peppering Baldwin in 2018. On the other hand, one might say, Wilson is spreading the ball out more as he's developing his vision as a QB. This year will determine which is true.

 

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On 4/19/2018 at 12:24 PM, J.T. Marlin said:

 

Agreed that on paper, everything is set up for Baldwin to have a great season, possibly even a career year.

 

SEA lost 2 top targets from 2017 (Jimmy G and Richardson), including major RZ weapon in Graham.

 

Defense will seemingly take another big step back, leading to the team having to score more points.

 

Run game does not seem like it will take any significant steps forward, meaning the team will continue to have to rely on Wilson and the passing game to move the ball and score points.

 

Baldwin will continue to be Russel's most experienced and trusted WR option.

 

Whether or not everything materializes into big stats for Baldwin remains to be seen but the reasoning behind the expectations is really hard to argue against.

 

Scheme changes are always a source of major risk to my mind.

 

Can someone explain why odds are high that Schottenheimer's offense will maintain or elevate Seattle's offensive production?   And, no, "anything is better than Bevell" is not what I'm looking for.

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5 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Scheme changes are always a source of major risk to my mind.

 

Can someone explain why odds are high that Schottenheimer's offense will maintain or elevate Seattle's offensive production?   And, no, "anything is better than Bevell" is not what I'm looking for.

 

I don't think Marlin even implied that the offense will be better. Only that Baldwin's opportunity is going from good to gargantuan. 

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I don't think Marlin even implied that the offense will be better. Only that Baldwin's opportunity is going from good to gargantuan. 

I agree.  

 

Baldwin is a great under the radar WR with upside.

 

PPR:  D. Hopkins > A. Brown > OBJ > K. Allen > D. Adams > J. Jones > M. Thomas > D. Baldwin > AJ Green > M. Evans

 

Baldwin is a tier 2 WR, and a great option in the 2nd round. (Currently projected #20)

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

I agree.  

 

Baldwin is a great under the radar WR with upside.

 

PPR:  D. Hopkins > A. Brown > OBJ > K. Allen > D. Adams > J. Jones > M. Thomas > D. Baldwin > AJ Green > M. Evans

 

Baldwin is a tier 2 WR, and a great option in the 2nd round. (Currently projected #20)

 

I could split hairs but seems close enough. Baldwin should finish top 12 easy, top 10 with any luck, top 6 with good luck. 

Edited by Lord_Varys

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9 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I'm not saying that Baldwin won't have a career year, but I am more skeptical.

 

Last year Wilson threw more than ever; in fact, he throws more and more every year: 393 (2012), 407 (13), 452 (14), 483 (15), 546 (16), 553 (2017).

 

Yet percentage-wise, he threw less to Baldwin despite the increased pass attempts.

 

On one hand, you might say, Seattle sucked so hard last year, Wilson had better start peppering Baldwin in 2018. On the other hand, one might say, Wilson is spreading the ball out more as he's developing his vision as a QB. This year will determine which is true.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who is Wilson going to spread the ball to?  I think that's kind of the point.  He's virtually guaranteed to have to throw the ball even more this year and has less targets to use.

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4 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who is Wilson going to spread the ball to?  

 

This is the question.

 

And no one knows, not Carroll, not Wilson.

 

Dickson? Darboh? McAvoy? McKissic? Dez? Brandon Marshall? Decker?

or the rookies they’ll draft next week?

 

I expect clarity will not surface until August.

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6 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

This is the question.

 

And no one knows, not Carroll, not Wilson.

 

Dickson? Darboh? McAvoy? McKissic? Dez? Brandon Marshall? Decker?

or the rookies they’ll draft next week?

 

I expect clarity will not surface until August.

Exactly.  So for now we have to assume he targets Baldwin more.

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7 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

This is the question.

 

And no one knows, not Carroll, not Wilson.

 

Dickson? Darboh? McAvoy? McKissic? Dez? Brandon Marshall? Decker?

or the rookies they’ll draft next week?

 

I expect clarity will not surface until August.

 

Eh. Dez is the only one that scares me.  Graham was a red zone magnet last year and a big reason Baldwin was relatively down. Since Dez is basically  a TD dependent TE at this stage in his career, he can really damage Baldwin's upside. 

 

Maybe Seattle takes a stud wr prospect, but this class isn't really that great. And none of the other FAs anymore are any good. 

 

I expect we'll have clarity much sooner than August. 

Edited by Lord_Varys

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I think Seattle will be sub-average this year and behind in a lot of games. If so he may get a lot of "garbage time" yards. Not sure about the TD's. At this point I think he's a mid tier WR2 in Non-PPR. 

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