BrianM

Doug Baldwin 2018 Outlook

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19 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

**stares at the name and looks for hidden joke**

 

Come on, stop making up names.

 

**looks him up and realizes he is an actual player**

 

giphy.gif

Damore you know...

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Baldwin seems like the kind of dude that likes to play up his injuries and status. Dude is fine, or at least as fine as he normally is.

He's not scaring me a bit, he's just helping me get him for cheap. 

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On 29/8/2018 at 9:20 PM, collucho said:

Dropped to me in the 4th because of that comment. He was going in the 2nd a little while ago. Couldn't pass up that value!

exactly the same. i got him in late 4th round. :) 

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As someone who invested a 3rd rounder in him, I am nervous.

 

But I guess no news is good news?!

 

Maybe it's telling that Seattle hasn't made any moves for a WR, a position they're already fairly weak at.

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No one wanted to gamble on him in my 10man draft last night. I pretty much had to pick him up when he was still there in the 7th round. I really hope he's just exaggerating how bad his knee is. 

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2 minutes ago, Elcapitan said:

No one wanted to gamble on him in my 10man draft last night. I pretty much had to pick him up when he was still there in the 7th round. I really hope he's just exaggerating how bad his knee is. 

I took him in the 6th round in one league.

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Grabbed him everywhere I can. He's the type of guy you need to take a shot on when he falls in drafts. The risk is definitely worth the reward and when he's playing he's going to be the focal point of their offense. 

 

To be fair though I still think I'd prefer if they held him out a week or 2 to see if the issue gets better but he knows his body and knows when he's ready to go.

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Let me also post this pic here, which I made for @FreakFries in the Carson thread:

image.png.5cfb6cc513970e93bee645ccd55df37a.png

Mind you, I'm not a hater. Baldwin is a great WR, but he's also been playing for 7 straight years and this month he will be 30. I don't think he will suck but I don't think either you should expect any 2015/2016 production out of him.

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Can’t wait for Doug to ball out this year, and have all our injury concerns washed away and then bask in our draft value glory. 

 

Week 1? Start the stud. 

Edited by jccouger
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I probably should be concerned, but I'm not worried about this knee thing at all.  Thinking Baldwin will be just fine on game days and do what he always does.  Top 10 WR season coming up

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The Seahawks basically lost WRs Richardson/Kearse and TEs Graham/Willson and replaced them with WRs Brandon Marshall/David Moore and TE Nick Vannett. Maybe Marshall gets some red zone looks, but I see an increase in overall volume in 2018, if healthy.

 

Baldwin had 125 targets (22.8% target share, 16 RZ targets) in 2016 and 116 targets (22.1% target share, 8 RZ targets) in 2017. Those numbers have to go up in 2018. 

 

 

Summary – Baldwin’s Largest Ceiling Yet

"Even at under 125 targets, Baldwin has finished as the fantasy football WR11, WR8, and WR10 in his last three campaigns. With Graham and Richardson removed, Baldwin should now see the highest volume of his career, especially in the red zone. He’s flat-out dominated within the 20 before, flashing unbreakable chemistry with Wilson en route to shattering scoring records in 2015. As a clear cut target hog for one of the league’s best signal-callers, expect Baldwin to put up his best TD totals in years while setting a career high in yardage. He’ll be 2018’s Keenan Allen  — a third round WR who finishes among the top-15 overall."

 

http://rotostreetjournal.com/2018/03/26/seahawks-doug-baldwin-fantasy-football/

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7 minutes ago, Woonga24 said:

is he an automatic start @DEN?

 

 

I’ve been trying to decide the same thing. I think you have to look at your matchup/other players on your team. Do you need a guaranteed floor? If so Baldwin probably isn’t your guy. But his ceiling certainly isn’t low. Besides Lockett (who has never posted 700+ yards in a season), Baldwin is the only surefire receiver in this offense, and could easily see 10+ targets week 1, especially this early in the season when Wilson is still getting used to the other (downgraded) options around him.  

 

Also, while I don’t think the seahawks defense is going to be bad, on paper they’re undoubtably worse than in years past. Playing from behind could really boost his target share and YPC even more.

 

I’m rolling out Baldwin in my flex this week over Burkhead and Hyde, for reference. 

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I'm starting Baldwin this week. I was one who was worried immediately about his knee comments but hes now a full go for this weekend.  He's a solid WR that isn't going to put up massive 30 burgers like some players but you didn't draft him as such.   He's that consistent cog in your championship team that produces each week.

 

I was glad to hear that his knee has always been a problem... not that it is a good thing but it is something he has always played with.  I wonder if he decides to have surgery once his playing career is over?

 

Having said that I think he is in line for another 1000 yard season and I don't see why he can't get another 8 TDs - similar to last year.  If he has a good year he could push 1150 yards and 10TDs.

 

For his production he is a fairly "cheap" option at WR as long as his knee isn't a long term concern.  He was WR14 in standard last year and I would say he had a "quiet" year. He's going around WR15 right now which I think is fair value for what he could produce this year.

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Just now, Geaux Saints said:

Doesn't Baldwin usually struggle out of the gate?

No, that is Wilson who struggles. But last year things started to turn around and I expect good things from Baldwin and Wilson.  One of my big regrets this year was not getting any piece of Wilson in my leagues.

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