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Carlos Correa

Ronald Acuna 2018 Outlook

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He’s chasing off speed pitches down below the zone. The league has adjusted to him and now he needs to counter back. 

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36 minutes ago, Stickfig13 said:

Needs a day off 

acuna doesnt rest.....

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36 minutes ago, Stickfig13 said:

Needs a day off 

Nah! HR of CE jr bottom of the 8th to take the lead.

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I haven't been able to see this guy play much. Curious for those who have, where he seems to be struggling most currently. 

 

Anyone who watches the ATL games have any info what he's struggled with lately ?

 

I know being a rookie he'll have ups and downs, but wasn't sure if he's been chasing bad pitches, or trying to crank too many HR's. Just stirring up some conversation for those of you watching the games what you're seeing lately. 

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11 minutes ago, tonywow said:

I haven't been able to see this guy play much. Curious for those who have, where he seems to be struggling most currently. 

 

Anyone who watches the ATL games have any info what he's struggled with lately ?

 

I know being a rookie he'll have ups and downs, but wasn't sure if he's been chasing bad pitches, or trying to crank too many HR's. Just stirring up some conversation for those of you watching the games what you're seeing lately. 

 

Had an RBI single in the 8th last night for his 2nd hit of the game to take the lead after albies triple and later came around to score himself.

 

Looks like a certified stud out there to me.

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18 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Had an RBI single in the 8th last night for his 2nd hit of the game to take the lead after albies triple and later came around to score himself.

 

Looks like a certified stud out there to me.

1st rounder next year

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lines out 398 ft. ... :( ...also hit a sharp grounder that the fielder made a nice play on, so although he went 0-4 he did have a few hard outs.

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I remember back when he was young and full of promise. Already 20 now and putting up 0fers. I guess they can’t all be Juan Soto. 

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Acuna was one of the most talked about and anticipated players in the minors before his call-up, and somewhat strangely I haven’t heard a ton about him since. Thought I would give a quick update on what his numbers are looking like under the hood! He’s currently hitting .260/.324/.450 with 4 HRs and 2 SBs in 111 PAs. He’s supported that line with an 8.1% walk rate and a below average 27% K rate and overall he’s posted a 111 wRC+ to this point. The K rate stands out in a negative way, and I’ll go into more detail later but I just wanted to point out that his swinging-strike rate is actually about league-average so the high K rate isn’t a bat-to-ball skills issue.

Taking a look at Acuna’s batted ball data, the first thing that stands out is that he’s hitting a very low amount of line-drives at just 11.3%. That’s odd because all last year over 3 levels in the minors, he hit line-drives at an above-average rate and that was good because line-drives are the least likely form of batted ball contact to be turned into an out. Among hitters with at least 100 PAs, that ranks 4th worst in the majors and that’s arguably holding his BAPIP and therefore batting average down somewhat despite posting a reasonable .328 BAPIP currently. His groundball rate is sitting at 47.9% right now which is the 63rd highest in the majors. His flyball rate is at 40.8% right now and that’s a good mark and should let him rack up HRs with his plus plus raw power. Acuna is fairly pull focused, but not overly with a decent 42.3% pull rate. What is interesting is that Acuna is posting by far the lowest opposite field contact rate of his career at 15.5% when he’s typically averaged between low-mid 30% opposite field contact in the minors. The lowered opposite field contact rate has resulted in a very high 42.3% centerfield contact rate which ranks as the 16th highest mark in the majors right now and tells me that he’s on time a lot at the plate and not late to fastballs.

Looking at Acuna’s quality of contact stats, it’s where he really shines! His 43.7% Hard Contact rate ranks 35th in the majors among those with at least 100 PAs and ranks ahead of names like Yoan Moncada, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Gary Sanchez among others. He’s supporting that with a super impressive 93.8 MPH average exit velocity which ranks in a tie for 9th best in the majors with Giancarlo Stanton, Robinson Cano, and Matt Olson. According to Baseball Savant, his % of ball hit 95+ MPH is 52.1% and that ranks 14th best in the majors. He’s also barreling the ball at an above-average rate of 8.1% per PA which ranks 61st best in the majors. I also want to point out that his current 9.9% soft contact rate ranks as the 13th best in the majors right now. Essentially, when he makes contact, he hits it hard and that’s super impressive considering his lack of MLB experience and the fact that he can still add more strength as he matures more physically in the future. The power ceiling on him going forward is immense :o

Let's take a look at Ronald Acuna’s plate discipline metrics:

His out-of-zone swing% is 31.3%                                        MLB average is 29.9%
His zone swing % is 70.9%                                                  MLB average is 66.8%
His overall swing % is 47.4%                                               MLB average is 45.9%
His out-of-zone contact % is 60.2%                                   MLB average is 62.5%
His zone contact% is 89.9%                                                MLB average is 85.2%
His overall contact rate is 78.3%                                        MLB average is 76.8%
His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone is 40.7%    MLB average is 43.2%
His swinging-strike% is 10.3%                                            MLB average is 10.6%

As you can see, Acuna expands his zone slightly more than league average, and that’s not a great thing as his out-of-zone contact skills are about 2.3% worse than league average right now. The good news is he’s aggressive on strikes which tells me that he recognizes them, and is 89.9% zone contact rate is well above-average which shows that he doesn’t miss too many of them! I find it interesting that he’s seeing fewer strikes than league average, that tells me that either MLB pitchers are scared of him and showing respect, and/or they are trying to get him to chase and get himself out. Regardless, his swinging-strike rate is about average (actually 0.3 above-average) and that’s really impressive for a guy with that little MLB experience and for a guy with that sort of bat speed. That bat control combined with the very impressive quality of contact numbers is what makes him special IMO! If he can tighten his strike zone further in the future and force pitchers to come to him, he will hit a lot of HRs!!!!

Honestly, there’s a ton to like about Acuna and I’m so excited to see how he does ROS and in his career. He’s got a special combination of crazy bat speed that generates really impressive quality of contact numbers, and bat control. Add in plus speed on the bases and he’s a 5 category player in fantasy with a huge ceiling! He doesn’t have any platoon issues or anything, and Statcast thinks he’s underperformed some with an xAVG of .269 and xSLG of .526 compared to his real-life numbers of .260 and .450. I think we’ll likely see some ups and downs over the course of this season, but the raw skills are undeniable and not many guys in fantasy have a higher upside.

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Definitely appreciate all that information Garlando. I was hoping for some breakdowns on Acuna now that the sample size is a bit more robust since his call up. The numbers look pretty darn promising for ROS. 

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6 hours ago, Stickfig13 said:

So when does he start to help our fantasy teams win? 

 

He was helping my team more when he was in the minors. They need to get this kid out of the 2 hole for the time being. Hitting under .200 in the last 2 weeks now and striking out in 17 straight games. Bat him 6th or 7th until he can heat up.

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21 hours ago, Carlos Correa said:

 

He was helping my team more when he was in the minors. They need to get this kid out of the 2 hole for the time being. Hitting under .200 in the last 2 weeks now and striking out in 17 straight games. Bat him 6th or 7th until he can heat up.

 

He looked ok today

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12 minutes ago, rrrrich46 said:

Flipped him this morning for Paxton. 

You mean your opponent flipped Paxton for Acuna

 

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1 hour ago, Cdub2k said:

You mean your opponent flipped Paxton for Acuna

 

No. I meant what I said. It's a points league where the top 10-15 SPs are far more valuable than the top bats. I also have Soto and Vlad Jr, so I'm ok I think. 

 

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Anyone see his HR off Kimbrel? It's like he was off balance reaching for the outside of the plate and just flicked his bat and it went into the bullpen. That is tremendous casual power.

 

https://www.mlb.com/video/acuna-jrs-solo-home-run/c-2085542483

 

Anyway, after going 3-5 today, let's hope it's the start of a good run. Every rookie goes through an adjustment period.

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1 minute ago, lassetjus said:

Anyone see his HR off Kimbrel? It's like he was off balance reaching for the outside of the plate and just flicked his bat and it went into the bullpen. That is tremendous casual power.

 He hits so many deep fly balls to CF it makes me sad .... they need like 10 - 15 more feet, at 19, to Center, ..... pull or go oppo or age 2 years already!

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The hype around this guy reminds me of Gregory Polanco. Called him a 5 tool player yadda ya. ESPN anaylsts like Karabel were like he will be the best ever, must add. We all know how Polanco turned out.

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10 hours ago, lassetjus said:

Anyone see his HR off Kimbrel? It's like he was off balance reaching for the outside of the plate and just flicked his bat and it went into the bullpen. That is tremendous casual power.

 

https://www.mlb.com/video/acuna-jrs-solo-home-run/c-2085542483

 

Anyway, after going 3-5 today, let's hope it's the start of a good run. Every rookie goes through an adjustment period.

 

Good lord, he looked off balance to you?

 

I sae him recognize a 97mph fastball from kimbrel and got the bat actoss the zone to hit an ooposite field home run.

 

All i needed to see was Kimbrel say "wow" as Acuna was rounding the bases. Even Kimbrel was impressed Acuna got around on that pitch.

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8 minutes ago, Steelers72 said:

The hype around this guy reminds me of Gregory Polanco. Called him a 5 tool player yadda ya. ESPN anaylsts like Karabel were like he will be the best ever, must add. We all know how Polanco turned out.

Yes, and they also said that about Mike Trout so clearly by your analysis he has an equal shot at turning into the next Trout.

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13 minutes ago, Steelers72 said:

The hype around this guy reminds me of Gregory Polanco. Called him a 5 tool player yadda ya. ESPN anaylsts like Karabel were like he will be the best ever, must add. We all know how Polanco turned out.

Better than polanco right now. 

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