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Ronald Acuna 2018 Outlook


Carlos Correa

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56 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

You should sell high. High and in fastballs and breaking balls in the dirt are imminent.

I'm cool with walks, runs, and stolen bases. 

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1 hour ago, dkrocka said:

You should sell high. High and in fastballs and breaking balls in the dirt are imminent.

 

lol.  b/c they'll have better chances vs Freeman w/ runners on...

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The flyball revolution mostly comes from swing load. There is a lot of power AND loft generated from dropping your back shoulder when loading to swing. Most power hitters do it. The good is that you can obliterate anything at the knees inside or out... or even below the knees. The bad is that it makes you susceptible to high heat because your "uppercutting"... along with breaking balls where your basically doubling your launch angle.

 

Additionally, Acuna has quite a stride. When his timing is on he's going to absolutely destroy baseballs. When his timing isn't on, he's going to look foolish against quality breaking balls. Like Bozo the clown silly.

 

Furthermore, there are a TON of rookies that hit the ground running only to run into the sophomore slump. It's very common, even extremely common because of this simple fact: After about 2 or 3 hundred at bats a book begins to form about hitter's strengths/weaknesses... Pitchers adjust and attack accordingly. Then Acuna will have to adjust back. And back and forth it goes.

 

Still, Acuna has blazingly fast hands... Hopefully his hands are so fast that he's the type that can look for off-speed and obliterate fastballs anyway.

 

I'm not saying Acuna is going to bust... But if you're anointing a streaky player as a first rounder or even 5th rounder based off of 40 at bats, you're most likely going to be disappointed.

 

PS: I had a nearly identical swing to Acuna growing up, granted I'm not even a fraction as talented.

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The problem with that is you liken Acuna to other rookies when guys like him are extremely rare. He missed half a year and is still in the big leagues at 20; he's been in the league about a week and has the Braves' two hardest hit balls all year; he's shown speed in the very top tier of baseball; and he's an asset defensively. Of course he'll probably struggle but his floor with those tools is still a really good ballplayer and if he makes regular contact, he's a star right off the bat at age 20.

 

I always like to see what the Major League teams are telling me with regard to a player. The Braves have inserted him 2nd in the lineup on a division leading team and opposing pitchers are throwing less pitches in the zone to Acuna than they are to the average player. This tells me they don't think it's a mirage, either.

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4 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

The problem with that is you liken Acuna to other rookies when guys like him are extremely rare. He missed half a year and is still in the big leagues at 20; he's been in the league about a week and has the Braves' two hardest hit balls all year; he's shown speed in the very top tier of baseball; and he's an asset defensively. Of course he'll probably struggle but his floor with those tools is still a really good ballplayer and if he makes regular contact, he's a star right off the bat at age 20.

 

I always like to see what the Major League teams are telling me with regard to a player. The Braves have inserted him 2nd in the lineup on a division leading team and opposing pitchers are throwing less pitches in the zone to Acuna than they are to the average player. This tells me they don't think it's a mirage, either.

Tell me why the lineup card doesn't read ender-albies-freeman-acuna when ender Albie's and Freeman are protypical 1 2 and 3 hitters respectively. I guarantee you acuna is streaky, be careful.

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17 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Tell me why the lineup card doesn't read ender-albies-freeman-acuna when ender Albie's and Freeman are protypical 1 2 and 3 hitters respectively. I guarantee you acuna is streaky, be careful.

Define streaky; I've owned him in a dynasty since 2016 and he's been good the entire time. I'm not worried. If the batting average slips, he'll still steal bases and hit dingers and if he keeps up the batting average, then watch out.

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Hitting like s--- in AAA until game before callup. Big stride suggests potential timing issues. You should hope for something like benintendi's line from last year. Remember Matt wieters? Brett lawrie... The last braves prospect compared to Hank Aaron named Jason heyward? Name a prospect besides bryant, Harper, Stanton, judge, and Braun that was amazing from day 1 until the season ended... How about joc pederson... Be careful.

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16 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Hitting like s--- in AAA until game before callup. Big stride suggests potential timing issues. You should hope for something like benintendi's line from last year. Remember Matt wieters? Brett lawrie... The last braves prospect compared to Hank Aaron named Jason heyward? Name a prospect besides bryant, Harper, Stanton, judge, and Braun that was amazing from day 1 until the season ended... How about joc pederson... Be careful.

 

So wrong on so many levels it isn't worth typing past this point

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46 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Hitting like s--- in AAA until game before callup. Big stride suggests potential timing issues. You should hope for something like benintendi's line from last year. Remember Matt wieters? Brett lawrie... The last braves prospect compared to Hank Aaron named Jason heyward? Name a prospect besides bryant, Harper, Stanton, judge, and Braun that was amazing from day 1 until the season ended... How about joc pederson... Be careful.

just off top head trea, correa, bellinger, seager, posey, abreu, cespedes, hanley, 

 

sorry trea had 40 abs the year before

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I don't even own him, so you think I'd be bitter or something, but I'm not and that post made no sense to me.

 

It is true that he was hitting like crap in AAA before he got called up, but that could very well have been because he just didn't care.  Also, I'm sure he will slump at some point once pitchers adjust, but given the talent and how good he's been when he's actually tried, I don't see why he wouldn't bounce back when the time comes.

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5 hours ago, dkrocka said:

Hitting like s--- in AAA until game before callup. Big stride suggests potential timing issues. You should hope for something like benintendi's line from last year. Remember Matt wieters? Brett lawrie... The last braves prospect compared to Hank Aaron named Jason heyward? Name a prospect besides bryant, Harper, Stanton, judge, and Braun that was amazing from day 1 until the season ended... How about joc pederson... Be careful.

 

Quoted so I can pull this back up again in September. Hope you're still around by then. 

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On 5/3/2018 at 6:11 PM, Febonacci said:

This kid is going to be a top 20 player this year. Who knows how good he can get. Closest player to challenge Trout in the past 6 years.

You know all this after a week huh? 

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On 2018-05-03 at 8:11 PM, Febonacci said:

This kid is going to be a top 20 player this year. Who knows how good he can get. Closest player to challenge Trout in the past 6 years.

I really like Acuna! But I think you were looking for the “ Bold statement “ forum.

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17 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

just off top head trea, correa, bellinger, seager, posey, abreu, cespedes, hanley, 

 

sorry trea had 40 abs the year before

I wouldn't challenge the likelihood of stardom from blue Chip prospects over the past ten years if i were u. The list of failures dwarfs the success list.

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10 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

I wouldn't challenge the likelihood of stardom from blue Chip prospects over the past ten years if i were u. The list of failures dwarfs the success list.

 

Outnumber? Maybe

Dwarfs? No

 

Honestly I'm coming off a shift and way too tired to break it down year by year but even if you just google "top prospects of 20**" and check out the top 10-20 guys on any of those lists you'll see plenty of busts sure, but you'll also see a lot of productive MLB players and most of the superstars in the league currently. 

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2 hours ago, Baur10 said:

 

Outnumber? Maybe

Dwarfs? No

 

Honestly I'm coming off a shift and way too tired to break it down year by year but even if you just google "top prospects of 20**" and check out the top 10-20 guys on any of those lists you'll see plenty of busts sure, but you'll also see a lot of productive MLB players and most of the superstars in the league currently. 

Yeah? Take the top 12 overall players drafted in the first round today. Review if they were drafted in the top 50 in their second year. You'll find that bryant might be the only one that supports to not accept, say, a Christian yelich swap.

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Go ahead and do top prospects of 2016 even. I'll give you an extra year rather than sophomore season. Or 2017. You'll find the odds of acuna getting drafted in the top 50 are not even close to 50 percent. With that said he would have to massively exceed reasonable expectations where you don't turn a profit right now.

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dkrocka,

what point are you trying to make regarding his draft position/prospect ranking? I've read this page a couple times and you lost me somewhere in there. Genuinely curious. 

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16 minutes ago, cs3 said:

dkrocka,

what point are you trying to make regarding his draft position/prospect ranking? I've read this page a couple times and you lost me somewhere in there. Genuinely curious. 

I too lost track of the point he was/is trying to make. Quite frankly I don’t care. I have Acuna in a dynasty so whatever drocka is saying means nothing to me.

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