cohenstantinople

Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

And rashad Jennings had 10.2 y/c 

 

Not last year he didn't.  Nor the year before that.

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3 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

I think it's a lot more realistic than 7.2 ypc--and anyway, I was just making the point that unless you have a Point Per Carry scoring system, 300 carries doesn't mean much by itself--it's what you DO with those carries that earns points in fantasy football.

 

You're wrong, 300+ carries means a ton (hell 250+ for that matter). How many back in the league do you think have received 300 carries the last 3 seasons?

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6 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Leveon Bell is one of the best receiving RBs in the league. 

 

He's never averaged 10 yards per catch. 

 

Axually he did nudge over 10 in 2014 (10.3), but his career average is 8.5.

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15 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

10 yards per catch seems awfully optimistic.  Tarik Cohen and Dion Lewis only averaged 6.7 yards per catch last year.

 

Shane Vereen, Wayne Gallman and Paul Perkins averaged 5.8, 5.7 and 5.8 yards per catch respectively for the Giants last year.

 

Cool, Kamara did - and Mixon, Gurley... Not one of those names listed did because not one of them is even remotely close to as talented. 

 

I don’t know what’s so difficult to comprehend - Saquon Barkley is literally everything you like about Kamara, Leveon, DJ, Zeke - with either a bigger frame or more athleticism 

 

His ability receiving out the backfield is as good as it gets - and he’s got 2 offensive minded coaches who will feed him accordingly. He is going to catch 60+ passes, he is going to touch the ball 20-25 times a game, and he’s going to do so while defenses key on Odell Beckham.

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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1 minute ago, paulwall29 said:

You're wrong, 300+ carries means a ton (hell 250+ for that matter). How many back in the league do you think have received 300 carries the last 3 seasons?

 

Doesn't matter.  I'll take the RB with 200 carries averaging 5.8 yards per carry over the RB with 350 carries averaging 2.4 yards per carry every time.

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1 minute ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Cool, Kamara did - and Mixon, Gurley... Not one of those names listed did because not one of them is even remotely close to as talented. 

 

Le'Veon Bell averaged 7.7 yards per catch last year.  I guess Barkley as a rookie is about 50% better than Bell in his fifth season?

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2 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Le'Veon Bell averaged 7.7 yards per catch last year.  I guess Barkley as a rookie is about 50% better than Bell in his fifth season?

 

and Leveon averaged 9 ypr his rookie year followed by 10+ ypr his second season ... great point. Duke Johnson almost averaged 10 ypr this year as well ... it’s not unheard of, nor is it impossible.

 

Barkley, 1 way or another, is going to put up 1500+ total yards. Good night 

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3 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

and Leveon averaged 9 ypr his rookie year followed by 10+ ypr his second season ... great point. Duke Johnson almost averaged 10 ypr this year as well ... it’s not unheard of, nor is it impossible.

 

What are you, the king of the straw men?

 

I never said it was impossible, I said it was "pretty optimistic."  And it is.

 

EDIT:  Oops, I went back and looked, and I said it was "awfully optimistic."  Figured I'd better come correct myself before the mall lawyers got to it first.

 

And it still is.

 

Edited by Axe Elf

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1 minute ago, Axe Elf said:

 

What are you, the king of the straw men?

 

I never said it was impossible, I said it was "pretty optimistic."  And it is.

 

Says the guy who mentions 2 smurfs nowhere near as good as Barkley and a bunch of Giants retreads who don’t even warrant discussion as “support” for the argument - that 1500 yards is also with only 4 ypc, which can obviously be higher.

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Just now, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Says the guy who mentions 2 smurfs nowhere near as good as Barkley and a bunch of Giants retreads who don’t even warrant discussion as “support” for the argument - that 1500 yards is also with only 4 ypc, which can obviously be higher.

 

Just out of curiosity...  What does it mean when you say, "Good night" at the end of a post?

 

I thought it meant you were done making yourself look silly for the evening, but here you are still diggin' that hole...

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Still waiting for an actual rationale for why Saquon can’t meet/exceed those projections 

 

I can’t wait for his first blow up game and the inevitable “sell high, defenses are gonna like watch film” BS sure to come ..

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16 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Still waiting for an actual rationale for why Saquon can’t meet/exceed those projections 

 

I can’t wait for his first blow up game and the inevitable “sell high, defenses are gonna like watch film” BS sure to come ..

You make great points cyb, following it up with those good nights and have a nice days are unnecessary.

 

i had Barkley at 1000 yds 500 rec yds axe is off on this one

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14 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Still waiting for an actual rationale for why Saquon can’t meet/exceed those projections 

 

I can’t wait for his first blow up game and the inevitable “sell high, defenses are gonna like watch film” BS sure to come ..

 

That's not the rationale that you should be waiting for, because there is NO rationale for why he CAN'T meet or exceed those projections.

 

There are extensive rationales for why it is UNLIKELY for Saquon to meet or exceed those projections--or at least not as likely as several other RBs being drafted equal to or lower than Barkley.

 

THOSE are the rationales that are in your lap and which you should quit poo-pooing if you want to give yourself the best odds of hitting on your RB1 this season.

 

Fortunately, I CAN wait for his first blow up game before I start expecting them on the reg.  When they happen reliably, then Barkley is a first round pick.  Can it happen?  Sure!  I just don't see any reason to BET on it happening when there are so many other safer bets available.

 

2 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

i had Barkley at 1000 yds 500 rec yds axe is off on this one

 

How am I off?  I haven't made any projection of my own, nor have I said he would get more or less than that.  I HAVE said that expecting him to average 10 yards per catch or more is "awfully optimistic."  And I have also said that Barkley COULD even exceed those projections.  But the bottom line, that I have stated MANY times, is that there are better bets for that kind of production--or more--among RBs that are being drafted equal to or later than Barkley--and in that regard, I am not "off."

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I mean just the fact that there are THIRTY-TWO pages of this thread in June is evidence of Barkley's "iffiness."  Go to the Fournette thread, it's just like 4 pages of people saying, "Yep, the man is a beast, set up to succeed in an offense that will lean on him, and if I can reasonably obtain him, I will."  The Fitzgerald thread is only 2 pages of people saying, "Yep, Fitz is as safe as they get for WR1 production at a WR2 price."

 

Those guys are slam dunks.  Josh Gordon is not.  His thread is 20 pages long, filled with the abundant pros and even more abundant cons.  20 pages of iffy.

 

Barkley's iffy number is 32 and counting.

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55 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

That's not the rationale that you should be waiting for, because there is NO rationale for why he CAN'T meet or exceed those projections.

 

There are extensive rationales for why it is UNLIKELY for Saquon to meet or exceed those projections--or at least not as likely as several other RBs being drafted equal to or lower than Barkley.

 

THOSE are the rationales that are in your lap and which you should quit poo-pooing if you want to give yourself the best odds of hitting on your RB1 this season.

 

Fortunately, I CAN wait for his first blow up game before I start expecting them on the reg.  When they happen reliably, then Barkley is a first round pick.  Can it happen?  Sure!  I just don't see any reason to BET on it happening when there are so many other safer bets available.

 

 

How am I off?  I haven't made any projection of my own, nor have I said he would get more or less than that.  I HAVE said that expecting him to average 10 yards per catch or more is "awfully optimistic."  And I have also said that Barkley COULD even exceed those projections.  But the bottom line, that I have stated MANY times, is that there are better bets for that kind of production--or more--among RBs that are being drafted equal to or later than Barkley--and in that regard, I am not "off."

Then quit beating around the bush and project. It's sounds like you wouldn't even consider him in the 3rd.

 

considering all of your projections are from the year before this makes sense 

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

Then quit beating around the bush and project. It's sounds like you wouldn't even consider him in the 3rd.

 

I generally DON'T make projections of the "50 catches for 700 yards and 4 TDs" variety--more like "So and so should finish in the top 15; all it would take is this many yards on this many catches," something like that.  The projection is the positional ranking, more than the specific stats.  You've seen my projections for Barkley littered throughout this thread--he's a prospect with a decent shot at being in the top 15, with top 10 upside, who carries more risk than guys like Leonard Fournette, Howard and McCoy who are being drafted equal to or lower than Barkley.  I would definitely consider him in the 3rd, but chances are, I'll never have the privilege of doing so.

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18 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

I generally DON'T make projections of the "50 catches for 700 yards and 4 TDs" variety--more like "So and so should finish in the top 15; all it would take is this many yards on this many catches," something like that.  The projection is the positional ranking, more than the specific stats.  You've seen my projections for Barkley littered throughout this thread--he's a prospect with a decent shot at being in the top 15, with top 10 upside, who carries more risk than guys like Leonard Fournette, Howard and McCoy who are being drafted equal to or lower than Barkley.  I would definitely consider him in the 3rd, but chances are, I'll never have the privilege of doing so.

Also wrong on Gordon but this proves that you only take last year into account. 

 

Should i I pull up stats of the draft masters we were in last year? 

Edited by bhawks489

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14 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Also wrong on Gordon but this proves that you only take last year into account. 

 

Should i I pull up stats of the draft masters we were in last year? 

 

Sure.  I'd be interested to see if I suffered the loss of more or less than 40% of my team in that one.  Pretty sure I had Allen Robinson, who was on pace for 480 receptions and 8160 yards when he went down.  If I just hadn't lost him, I'd have taken the crown easily.

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

You make great points cyb, following it up with those good nights and have a nice days are unnecessary.

 

i had Barkley at 1000 yds 500 rec yds axe is off on this one

 

Thank you - I’ve embraced the ignore feature more and more as I learn that certain posters are literally trolling with no knowledge of (reality) football whatsover. 

Not even worth the acknowledgement of a debate.

 

Years ago you could actually discuss real football on here. Now it’s 99% emoji-laden “burns” from people who probably don’t even understand the game outside of Maddenx power rankings. and “expert” ranks. 

 

I’m actually going to bed, so don’t take this the wrong way ... Good night.

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4 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Thank you - I’ve embraced the ignore feature more and more as I learn that certain posters are literally trolling with no knowledge of (reality) football whatsover. 

Not even worth the acknowledgement of a debate.

 

Years ago you could actually discuss real football on here. Now it’s 99% emoji-laden “burns” from people who probably don’t even understand the game outside of Maddenx power rankings. and “expert” ranks. 

 

I’m actually going to bed, so don’t take this the wrong way ... Good night.

I tried

 

"night"

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58 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Sure.  I'd be interested to see if I suffered the loss of more or less than 40% of my team in that one.  Pretty sure I had Allen Robinson, who was on pace for 480 receptions and 8160 yards when he went down.  If I just hadn't lost him, I'd have taken the crown easily.

Pretty sure you didn't do so well lol. FF is quite a bit of luck

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9 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Pretty sure you didn't do so well lol. FF is quite a bit of luck

 

Even Axe Elf can't predict injuries.

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19 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Even Axe Elf can't predict injuries.

Or some of 2018....

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5 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Doesn't matter.  I'll take the RB with 200 carries averaging 5.8 yards per carry over the RB with 350 carries averaging 2.4 yards per carry every time.

 

Let's do a little deductive reasoning here. Do you think it follows that a team will give a running back 300 carries if they average 2.4 ypc--obviously not. So let's just say that Saquon averages 4 ypc, which is an extremely reasonable expectation, as just about every running back that gets 270+ carries hits that mark (and as I said, you're a clown if you are seriously trying to posit that Barkley will average 2.4 ypc). The workhorse back that gets 300 carries at a 4 ypc clip will finish with 1,200 yards and your guy that has the prettier 5.8 ypc at 200 carries will finish with 1,160. So to come close to the same production your guy has to hit peak performance for a season, which is extremely difficult to predict, whereas my workhorse is essentially locked into that amount of production based on volume alone. This is why you are a fool to discredit the amount of volume a guy that was taken number 2 overall will get. You are being obtusely stubborn and defying simple probability. 

Edited by paulwall29
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32 pages and it’s not even training camp yet. I guess this is the new Derrick Henry thread :lol:

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