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Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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3 hours ago, Breesus said:

I have Barkley as my #6 RB in .5 ppr right now. I personally want to spend my top pick on an already more established RB. There is a big mental leap from the college game to NFL but RB is probably one of the easier positions for rookies to grasp. 

 

I get whoever wants to take the shot on him because of his talent & opportunity. I’d advise people to look at Eli & their o-line and determine their trust in them when trying to decide. I personally don’t trust Eli that much anymore and could see him struggling, he has seemed to get worse than better with age. And their o-line should improve but still makes me nervous. Bell,DJ,Gurley,Kamara, & Zeke all either have better offensive lines, QB’s, or both (besides DJ but he is a proven freak of nature imo) so I still have those guys above him for those reasons. 

For now anyways :huh:

 

For myself in a keeper league where many of those RBs that would be taken before him are gonna be kept. I’m gonna take a shot on him if he’s available. 

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18 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Axe Elf?  Is that you?

Ironically the claim that “Because X did that Y will do it also” is more along the lines of Axe Elf as opposed to what dashoe is saying. It’s a simple fallacy and also andecdotal evidence. As I mentioned before, if someone has 11 fingers we don’t say “humans have 10 or 11 fingers”. Statistical outliers aren’t used in evaluation.

 

Now, I’m not implying that a bad RB cannot have a good season. I’m implying that “MJD was good” is not validation of the claim. If your evidence is a few players over the course of nearly a decade than you don’t have a claim. In order to prove that claim you would have to say “Over the last 10 years X RBs finished in the top 12 on teams in the bottom 10.”  

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Top 10 finishers by year for last 5 years on teams not in the top 20 standings wise (Fantasy finish, team finish) :

 

2017: Jordan Howard (10, 28)

2016: Johnson (1, 21), Shady (3, 22), Gordon (8, 27), Howard (9, 29)

2015: Martin (3, 25), (6,22), Forte (9,24), Woodhead (10, 29)

2014: Forte (4, 26) 

2013: Shady(2, 24), Johnson (9, 20), Peterson (8, 25), Jackson (10, 24)

 

You would expect 37.5% of players to be on the bottom 12 teams if it were to be equal. It is 26%. That being said, the notion that bad teams don't have RB1s is false. 26% isn't too far off from what you would expect. The real trap is drafting not very good RBs on bad teams because you expect volume. Not a single guy above is JAG that did good because of volume. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Ironically the claim that “Because X did that Y will do it also” is more along the lines of Axe Elf as opposed to what dashoe is saying. It’s a simple fallacy and also andecdotal evidence. As I mentioned before, if someone has 11 fingers we don’t say “humans have 10 or 11 fingers”. Statistical outliers aren’t used in evaluation.

 

Now, I’m not implying that a bad RB cannot have a good season. I’m implying that “MJD was good” is not validation of the claim. If your evidence is a few players over the course of nearly a decade than you don’t have a claim. In order to prove that claim you would have to say “Over the last 10 years X RBs finished in the top 12 on teams in the bottom 10.”  

But humans do have 10 or 11 fingers if a human is born with 11 fingers. We may not say it but it is empirically true.

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2 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

But humans do have 10 or 11 fingers if a human is born with 11 fingers. We may not say it but it is empirically true.

My point isn't that it's impossible. My point is that it's a statistical outlier so we don't try to pass it as the norm.

 

Likewise, in fantasy there are statistical outliers in terms of players and even entire seasons and using that as the norm is silly. I find that when someone is making a claim and then they use one example to support it as quite lazy. Well, what about the other 100 examples that disprove that claim? Or, if your claim is correct you should be able to present data to support it. 

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14 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

But humans do have 10 or 11 fingers if a human is born with 11 fingers. We may not say it but it is empirically true.

 

and people with 11 fingers suck

Edited by dashoe
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39 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Ironically the claim that “Because X did that Y will do it also” is more along the lines of Axe Elf as opposed to what dashoe is saying. It’s a simple fallacy and also andecdotal evidence.

I don't see how you got this from my post.  I never said that he would be good because MJD was good.  It proves that it IS possible when he stated that "If the Giants suck, Barkley WILL suck".  Pretty easy to understand for everyone else.

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3 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I don't see how you got this from my post.  I never said that he would be good because MJD was good.  It proves that it IS possible when he stated that "If the Giants suck, Barkley WILL suck".  Pretty easy to understand for everyone else.

 

Man you really don't get the point do you?  if I make the statement  if the giants suck then barkley will suck it's an opinion not anything empirical however you feel the need to interject that if mjd di x  then that means barkley won't suck which is a terrible terrible attempt at analysis.  Your factoid does not refute my opinion in any context.  Zero

Suck is a subjective term based on a personal bias. You are providing an irrelevant piece of data to me because you have no idea what suck means to me. In other words your attempt at a counter argument is completely useless and flaccid because i don't care about what MJD did and it does not refute my OPINION that if the giants suck so will Barkley.

I get it you threw in the MJD factoid to make it appear you are a knowledgeable fact based fantasy football player with a high acumen. Same as the guy who wears horn rim glasses with no prescription lenses. He just wants to LOOK intelligent.

 

Dude there is no nothing for you to counter other than simply saying "Hey dashoe I disagree with your opinion pal. I think even if the giants suck barkley will or can be a stud!"

 

You are doing somersaults when hop would suffice :lol:

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Man you really don't get the point do you?  if I make the statement  if the giants suck then barkley will suck it's an opinion not anything empirical however you feel the need to interject that if mjd di x  then that means barkley won't suck which is a terrible terrible attempt at analysis.  Your factoid does not refute my opinion in any context.  Zero

Suck is a subjective term based on a personal bias. You are providing an irrelevant piece of data to me because you have no idea what suck means to me. In other words your attempt at a counter argument is completely useless and flaccid because i don't care about what MJD did and it does not refute my OPINION that if the giants suck so will Barkley.

I get it you threw in the MJD factoid to make it appear you are a knowledgeable fact based fantasy football player with a high acumen. Same as the guy who wears horn rim glasses with no prescription lenses. He just wants to LOOK intelligent.

 

Dude there is no nothing for you to counter other than simply saying "Hey dashoe I disagree with your opinion pal. I think even if the giants suck barkley will or can be a stud!"

 

You are doing somersaults when hop would suffice :lol:

You seriously can't read, can you?

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You seriously can't read, can you?

 

I only need to read you :lol:

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If healthy, Barkley is likely to be a highly productive fantasy back this year because even if the Giants fall way behind in every game, Barkley will get receptions out of the backfield galore.

 

The real question is, in 2019, will Barkley be in the discussion for number 1 overall?  Barring a severe injury, I think the answer is going to be "yes.'

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Top 10 finishers by year for last 5 years on teams not in the top 20 standings wise (Fantasy finish, team finish) :

 

2017: Jordan Howard (10, 28)

2016: Johnson (1, 21), Shady (3, 22), Gordon (8, 27), Howard (9, 29)

2015: Martin (3, 25), (6,22), Forte (9,24), Woodhead (10, 29)

2014: Forte (4, 26) 

2013: Shady(2, 24), Johnson (9, 20), Peterson (8, 25), Jackson (10, 24)

 

You would expect 37.5% of players to be on the bottom 12 teams if it were to be equal. It is 26%. That being said, the notion that bad teams don't have RB1s is false. 26% isn't too far off from what you would expect. The real trap is drafting not very good RBs on bad teams because you expect volume. Not a single guy above is JAG that did good because of volume. 

 

See a recurring theme of Bears RBs on there. 

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29 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I only need to read you :lol:

Then start doing it

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Then start doing it

I already finished your 2 words book it wasnt exactly a page turner. . .:lol:

 

So yeah back on topic, if the giants suck barkley will suck.

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Just now, dashoe said:

I already finished your 2 words book it wasnt exactly a page turner. . .:lol:

 

So yeah back on topic, if the giants suck barkley will suck.

Very odd that you pick possibly one of the best receiving backs in the league to suck if the team sucks, shouldn't you be in the Derrick Henry or Jordan Howard thread?

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17 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Very odd that you pick possibly one of the best receiving backs in the league to suck if the team sucks, shouldn't you be in the Derrick Henry or Jordan Howard thread?

 

Quite odd that you  qualify Barkley as 'possibly one of the best receiving backs in the league' when he has yet to play an NFL down?   I'll play your silly game with you. Do you have any data from an NFL game that determines that barkley is 'possibly one of the best reciveing backs in the league' or is that your opinion or are you going to stress the word 'possibly' which then i can be applied to any rb which you can say the same about penny,sony,royce are 'possibly' the best recieving backs in the league. 

 

I don't think it's quite odd that i would have the opinion that barkley will suck if the giants suck, there is nothing outrageous or improbable about that opinion.  No different than stating an opinion that this is the year AB will bust or this season kenny britt will be fantasy relevant or this year  Josh gordon will finish as wr1(all of these examples are not my true opinions aside of course from Josh Gordon will finish as wr1 because it has been predestined).

 

You seem to have hangups about other peoples opinions you don't agree with don't you?  

Reminds me of another poster in this thread who has a penchamt of  posting college highlight clips and attacking dissenting opinions.

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19 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Quite odd that you qualify Barkley as 'possibly one of the best receiving backs in the league'

 

Quote

You seem to have hangups about other peoples opinions you don't agree with don't you? 

Irony.

 

That's my opinion, so why are you disagreeing with it ????

 

 

 

Do you not know what these forums are for or do you just like to complain about every post that disagrees with you or proves you wrong?

Edited by RMJ_12

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28 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

Irony.

 

That's my opinion, so why are you disagreeing with it ????

 

 

 

Do you not know what these forums are for or do you just like to complain about every post that disagrees with you or proves you wrong?

 

 

I swear you are trolling dude but i'm having fun with it (sometimes i get a sense that some guys make nonsensical debates with me in certain threads because i may have hurt their feelings in other threads ):lol:

 

I said i would play your game .

 

Look up the meaning of irony, read my previous post and then look in the mirror :lol:

Edited by dashoe

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Quite odd that you  qualify Barkley as 'possibly one of the best receiving backs in the league' when he has yet to play an NFL down? 

 I didn't realize you lose your ability to catch 5 yard passes once you get to the NFL.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

 I didn't realize you lose your ability to catch 5 yard passes once you get to the NFL.

 

Still trolling. . .:lol:

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13 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Still trolling. . .:lol:

What do you want?  stats?  Barkley caught 18% of his teams completions last season.

 

Seriously, you're worthless to everyone's time.

Edited by RMJ_12

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26 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

What do you want?  stats?  Barkley caught 18% of his teams completions last season.

 

Seriously, you're worthless to everyone's time.

 

Still trolling. . .:lol:

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The chances of Barkley being a stud this year is way higher than him being a bust that’s a fact. Volume/opportunity, talent, fresh legs, and high IQ. Giants have excellent wide receivers to open the field. You gotta be kidding yourself if you think this guy will suck this year. Should you take him over gurley, bell or Zeke? Probably not but I wouldn’t think your crazy doing so because I think he’s gonna be that good. He definitely is worthy without a doubt of a mid to late 1st round pick. No debate there. 

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How is the giants oline looking? Weren’t they pretty terrible last year?

Edited by CABLE87

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