cohenstantinople

Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

2 for 1 trades mean nothing.   It’s about the caliber of players and situations involved.   Penny has a terrible line and still has to win the job.    Guice has another mid round rb to beat out as well as a talented receiving back in CT.   Neither are guaranteed successes at the NFL level.  

     Barkley is the most gifted player by far— going top 6-7 overall IN REDRAFT with no meaningful comp, in an excellent situation.   It’s as close to a guarantee as you will get in fantasy.   Good players like Guice and Penny come and go, but generational talents like Barkley do not.   You don’t trade generational talents-  you build around them.  

 

It’s an interesting debate-  id love to hear from other experienced dynasty players on this

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think it depends on your roster, your league and your settings.  

 

To give a hypothetical, in a 12 team 1/2 ppr dynasty where you start two flex plays with very long benches and even talent distribution among owners, if I have everything filled EXCEPT two running back spots, I might consider a two for one.  I don’t think I’d do Penny and Guice, but it’s certainly reasonable. 

 

Basically, the deeper the league the more I’d consider two or more lesser prospects for one exceptional one. 

 

In most situations I lean towards value consolidation in trades (ie, keeping or getting the better players).  The reason being that you can always have a shot at drafting another good RB every year, but Barry Sanders/Tomlinson/Adrian Peterson only come along once a decade or so.  

 

I don’t have anything really revolutionary to offer on this one, other than I wouldn’t trade Saquon unless I was getting an exceptional offer of two other players (ie Fournette and Zeke)   

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

2 for 1 trades mean nothing.   It’s about the caliber of players and situations involved.   Penny has a terrible line and still has to win the job.    Guice has another mid round rb to beat out as well as a talented receiving back in CT.   Neither are guaranteed successes at the NFL level.  

     Barkley is the most gifted player by far— going top 6-7 overall IN REDRAFT with no meaningful comp, in an excellent situation.   It’s as close to a guarantee as you will get in fantasy.   Good players like Guice and Penny come and go, but generational talents like Barkley do not.   

 

You don’t trade generational talents-  you build around them.  After some reflection, I’d keep Barkley over any other 2 rookie backs.  

 

It’s an interesting debate-   id love to hear from other experienced dynasty players on this. 

 

@Bartos

@vikingapocalypse

@mrblonde1984

@Iron-cock

@petekrum

@Winky

@Rolling Thunder

@Packdog

@BlakeP42

@JHM_13

@Lord_Varys

 

 

I'd love to give my two cents, but after seeing who's involved in this convo, it's a hard pass for me. Enjoy

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

2 for 1 trades mean nothing.   It’s about the caliber of players and situations involved.   Penny has a terrible line and still has to win the job.    Guice has another

 

 

Let's keep  the premise in context before it turns into something that isnt relevant to my point. it's not  strictly 2:1 the trade prop was  1.02+1.03 picks for the 1.01 pick. I wouldnt do that trade for a rb regardless of how generational people think he is. As I mentioned Fournette was labeled as generational talent and placed in a perfect situation as an everydown rb but in hindsight would he have been worth any other 2 of cmc+hunt+kamara+mixon? I will take my chances and keep my 1.02+1.03 picks and let the barkley owner enjoy him

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8 hours ago, psygolf said:

 

 

 

Would it be fair to compare the rejected trade to someone rejecting a Ginn Jr + DBowe offer for Calvin in 2007 -?

Hindsight bias is great isn't it? 

 

McFadden for Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles.

 

Interesting how that works...

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39 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Let's keep  the premise in context before it turns into something that isnt relevant to my point. it's not  strictly 2:1 the trade prop was  1.02+1.03 picks for the 1.01 pick. I wouldnt do that trade for a rb regardless of how generational people think he is. As I mentioned Fournette was labeled as generational talent and placed in a perfect situation as an everydown rb but in hindsight would he have been worth any other 2 of cmc+hunt+kamara+mixon? I will take my chances and keep my 1.02+1.03 picks and let the barkley owner enjoy him

Haha, sure use the only example that benefits your side of the debate.  Plenty of other examples were already laid out for you.  Last year's RB class was an outlier.  That doesn't happen every year.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Haha, sure use the only example that benefits your side of the debate.  Plenty of other examples were already laid out for you.  Last year's RB class was an outlier.  That doesn't happen every year.

You beat me to it by one minute.

 

Last year's RB class was ridiculous.  So many guys made an instant impact.

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13 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Haha, sure use the only example that benefits your side of the debate.  Plenty of other examples were already laid out for you.  Last year's RB class was an outlier.  That doesn't happen every year.

 

Come on guy why wouldnt i use the most recent and relevant example that supports my premise? :)  it still doesnt change my philosophy because it's not about the rb position it's about the value of the picks to me

i don't think 1.01 is worth 1.02+1.03 in a rookie draft where rb talent overall is very good'it's not like the rb's after barkley completely suck and are playing behind dominant studs

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11 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Hindsight bias is great isn't it? 

 

McFadden for Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles.

 

Interesting how that works...

Yeah like Zeke for Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake.  Todd Gurley for Ameer Abdullah and T.J Yeldon.

 

It does work!

 

Very interesting you used Forte and Charles when they were the 5th and 8th RB's selected.

 

More realistic would be McFadden for Jonathan Stewart and Felix Jones.  Or even McFadden for Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall. 

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yeah like Zeke for Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake.  Todd Gurley for Ameer Abdullah and T.J Yeldon.

 

It does work!

 

Very interesting you used Forte and Charles when they were the 5th and 8th RB's selected.

 

More realistic would be McFadden for Jonathan Stewart and Felix Jones.  Or even McFadden for Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall. 

First off, where an RB is selected in realty does not reflect where they will/should be selected in fantasy. 

 

Second off, thanks for further displaying how ridiculous using hindsight bias is to prove a point. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

First off, where an RB is selected in realty does not reflect where they will/should be selected in fantasy. 

 

Second off, thanks for further displaying how ridiculous using hindsight bias is to prove a point. 

Hindsight bias?  I used the 1st RB selected traded for the 2nd and 3rd RB's selected.  Btw none of these #1 RB's are near the prospect that Barkley was coming out.

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56 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

You beat me to it by one minute.

 

Last year's RB class was ridiculous.  So many guys made an instant impact.

 

Last years rb class was not considered ridiculous  before the season started, it was considered deep. Aside from people going  gaga over fournette-cmc-mixon no one was screaming about game cahnging impact of kamara+hunt, 2 rbs that their respective teams traded up to get in the 3rd rd.   The 2018 rb class is graded just as talented as the 2017 so if you think the 2017 class was ridiculous then it doesnt make sense in my view to trade 1.02+1.03 for barkley.

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16 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Last years rb class was not considered ridiculous  before the season started, it was considered deep. Aside from people going  gaga over fournette-cmc-mixon no one was screaming about game cahnging impact of kamara+hunt, 2 rbs that their respective teams traded up to get in the 3rd rd.   The 2018 rb class is graded just as talented as the 2017 so if you think the 2017 class was ridiculous then it doesnt make sense in my view to trade 1.02+1.03 for barkley.

To be fair you never would have taken Hunt or Kamara at 1.02 or 1.03.

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6 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

To be fair you never would have taken Hunt or Kamara at 1.02 or 1.03.

 

To be fair it wouldnt't have mattered for me because I would never trade  a 1.02+1.03 for a 1.01 pick; but look at my sig and you see hunt and kamara on my championship team. Now i need to find this years value picks:D 

Now if we all had the same philosophies, rankings, strategies and valuations then this wouldnt be a fun hobby. 

 

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

To be fair you never would have taken Hunt or Kamara at 1.02 or 1.03.

But you might have taken Dalvin and McCaff. 

 

Thats still way more valuable than Fournette. 

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I see both sides of this argument. I think it probably depends where the rest of your team is in dynasty. If you are 1 player away, do it. If not, build for the future

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1 hour ago, Experienced Rookie said:

But you might have taken Dalvin and McCaff. 

 

Thats still way more valuable than Fournette. 

I don't think we'll know that for a few years

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13 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I don't think we'll know that for a few years

It doesn't take years to realize value in a dynasty league though. It's like the stock market. 

 

Last preseason Fournette's value was clearly higher. Let's say:

Fournette $29

Dalvin $18

McCaff $15

 

And NOW:

Fournette $31

Dalvin $28

McCaff $22

 

If someone had traded Fournette for both of those players last summer, they could now turn around and trade either/or and cash in pretty good. 

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1 hour ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-saquon-barkleys-pass-game-impact-for-nyg

 

Oh look, something actually worth discussing. Saquon’s ability to have a significant / instant impact in 2018.

thank you for the post. what i wrote the other day about the impact barkley can have on that offense is about word for word with what i wrote. thanks again.

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Even If Barkley is the superior running back, you're literally getting the next two players off the board. 

 

Football is a violent game, so I'd argue that two commodities right after Barkley is a better play long term in a dynasty format, simply due to injury. 

 

This thread reminds me of the C MAC thread last year but with gas thrown on it. C MAC went top 4 last year in our dynasty hybrid redraft league and Barkley will be the number one pick this year. 

 

Would I be a bottom feeding team to have a chance at this? 

 

No. 

 

So If I wouldn't tank for him, I'm def not trading picks 1.02 and 1.03 for him. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

Even If Barkley is the superior running back, you're literally getting the next two players off the board. 

 

Football is a violent game, so I'd argue that two commodities right after Barkley is a better play long term in a dynasty format, simply due to injury. 

 

This thread reminds me of the C MAC thread last year but with gas thrown on it. C MAC went top 4 last year in our dynasty hybrid redraft league and Barkley will be the number one pick this year. 

 

Would I be a bottom feeding team to have a chance at this? 

 

No. 

 

So If I wouldn't tank for him, I'm def not trading picks 1.02 and 1.03 for him. 

 

 

You can only start as many guys as your league allows you.  Just because you get 2 guys for 1 that doesn't mean it makes your team better.  Usually in a fair trade the team getting the best player wins the trade.  If your 14 team league has 4 flex spots maybe you win that trade, otherwise Barkley's talent wins that trade alone.

 

It only takes 1 of the 2 picks to bust to make the trade a total nightmare anyway.  Barkley is the only player in this draft considered a sure thing.

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

You can only start as many guys as your league allows you.  Just because you get 2 guys for 1 that doesn't mean it makes your team better.  Usually in a fair trade the team getting the best player wins the trade.  If your 14 team league has 4 flex spots maybe you win that trade, otherwise Barkley's talent wins that trade alone.

 

It only takes 1 of the 2 picks to bust to make the trade a total nightmare anyway.  Barkley is the only player in this draft considered a sure thing.

I agree with that sentiment but what If you find two amazing players with those next two picks. 

 

I'm almost never at the top of the draft so I don't focus on stuff I'm never gonna have a chance to draft. To me, draft picks are life blood, I pile them up. 

 

That's how I found 

 

Jags D and Kamara last year after the 15th round. 

 

There is always stuff you can get a deal on, If you do your due dilligence. 

 

That being said, I think Saquon is an amazing talent, he's gonna be on the team in our league that's yet to make the playoffs. Ever. :lol:

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23 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Usually in a fair trade the team getting the best player wins the trade.

 

Usually in a fair trade nobody "wins" the trade and both teams improve themselves.

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