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Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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35 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You can only start as many guys as your league allows you.  Just because you get 2 guys for 1 that doesn't mean it makes your team better.  Usually in a fair trade the team getting the best player wins the trade.  If your 14 team league has 4 flex spots maybe you win that trade, otherwise Barkley's talent wins that trade alone.

 

It only takes 1 of the 2 picks to bust to make the trade a total nightmare anyway.  Barkley is the only player in this draft considered a sure thing.

 

Ususally when i prop a fair trade, I try to offer a guy a player or players that he needs to make his team better for a player or players that will make my team better. 

I don't trade to win the trade I trade to make my team better. 

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When trading 2 for 1 you can't just look at the trade as is..  Barkley for Guice and Penny actually equals Barkley and free agent pickup for Guice and Penny.

 

Also if you already have a decent RB on your team I don't see how you can trade Barkley for 2 RB's.  Why?  To make your team deeper?  You want the best starting lineup possible.  There are no bye weeks in the playoffs.

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20 hours ago, P@ckersFan said:

In a dynasty league where a bad decision can hamstring you for years trading 2 players with unknown usage for 1 super-stud that you know is going to get monster volume seems like a no brainer to me. 

Aka Elohim applies to picks for me, if you can get an established stud utilizing some unknown chips I’m al over it.

 

i tried like hell to pry Saquon away offering a haul beyond what was discussed here and it was promptly turned down.

 

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17 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

To be fair you never would have taken Hunt or Kamara at 1.02 or 1.03.

 

This

 

Hindsight analysis doesn't help anyone.

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I guess while talking about unknowns, Saquon still exactly that.  Until he does it at the nfl it’s all speculation, but he seems like a safe bet 

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9 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

 

 

Good morning

 

Let me guess ... someone will knock the level of competition in the clips? It’s just to show his diverse skillset, athletic ability, and the fact that he actually can (and does) run with power. 

 

 

here he is on the biggest stage, vs the #1 run defense in college football ...

 

Let me guess ... “take away that 92 yard run and he was just decent” (the hole was big, the actual impressive part is the fact the DB has the angle on him and at 230+ pounds he runs by him effortlessly than essentially jogs into the endzone)

 

Theres a reason he’s regarded, by pretty much everyone who knows the game, as the best RB prospect to come out in a very long time. Accept this, and the fact he will be touching the ball in a variety of ways 20 times/game, and draft accordingly. 

 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast
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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

This

 

Hindsight analysis doesn't help anyone.

 

Then what exactly do you call analyzing the past performance of teams and players and your personal selection process as a basis for decisions made this season?

 

hindsight: understanding of a situation or event only after it has happened or developed.

 

Picking up a hot piece of metal without wearing a glove in hindsight was a bad idea.

Using  a 1st round pick on a QB in hindsight wasnt a good drafting strategy for my fantasy team

Talking about my irritable bowl syndrome during the first date in hindsight is probably the reason why I didnt get the second date

 

See how that works? :lol:

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46 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Then what exactly do you call analyzing the past performance of teams and players and your personal selection process as a basis for decisions made this season?

 

hindsight: understanding of a situation or event only after it has happened or developed.

 

Picking up a hot piece of metal without wearing a glove in hindsight was a bad idea.

Using  a 1st round pick on a QB in hindsight wasnt a good drafting strategy for my fantasy team

Talking about my irritable bowl syndrome during the first date in hindsight is probably the reason why I didnt get the second date

 

See how that works? :lol:

 

You should use the results to influence your decision paradigm moving forward— but without a proper sample size....it’s just cherry picking.     As evidenced by the variety of examples posted.  

 

There isnt a wrong or right answer to this trade question yet.    Roster construction and personal views of the players involved should be the guiding principle here.   

 

I won’t trade a guy who I think could be generational unless im blown away by the offer.

 

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12 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

You should use the results to influence your decision paradigm moving forward— but without a proper sample size....it’s just cherry picking.     As evidenced by the variety of examples posted.  

 

There isnt a wrong or right answer to this trade question yet.    Roster construction and personal views of the players involved should be the guiding principle here.   

 

I won’t trade a guy who I think could be generational unless im blown away by the offer.

 

 

smart. i know the "generational" tag gets thrown around a bit too much at times ... but there's no question Barkley has HOF ability with the frame/skillset that is essentially unfair.

 

Like, Faulk/Tomlinson potential ... and bigger. 

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59 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

You should use the results to influence your decision paradigm moving forward— but without a proper sample size....it’s just cherry picking.     As evidenced by the variety of examples posted.  

 

There isnt a wrong or right answer to this trade question yet.    Roster construction and personal views of the players involved should be the guiding principle here.   

 

I won’t trade a guy who I think could be generational unless im blown away by the offer.

 

 

As i said before it's what you value and your philosophy of roster construction.  For fantasy purposes 'generational' talent has no value for me because that designation doesnt neccessarilly outperform or give a fantasy team an edge. AB-DJ-Bell-kamara-rodgers-Gronkowski etc  were not drafted as generational talents however they are dominant in fantasy.

 

So real world Barkley is a great pick for his team and generational etc but in fantasy world he is another potential elite rb but my goal is to fill 9 starting and 6 bench slots with current and potential elite players.

So if  you offer me 1.02+1.03 or more for my 1.01, I will do that trade every time without hesitation. I value the extra options with the high picks more than I value the perceived "sure thing" with the generational talent .

 

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

my goal is to fill 9 starting and 6 bench slots with current and potential elite players.

You already have a team in place.  You act like you have to build a starting lineup with rookies only.

 

2 hours ago, dashoe said:

if you offer me 1.02+1.03 or more for my 1.01, I will do that trade every time without hesitation. I value the extra options with the high picks more than I value the perceived "sure thing" with the generational talent.

"Generational" talent doesn't come out of the draft every year.  You could potentially have another LaDanian Tomlinson and you're talking about trading him.  All it takes is for one of those 2 picks to bust for the trade to go to sh-t.  Look at the past rookie dynasty drafts.  For example the top 5 picks of recent rookie dynasty drafts based on adp are:

 

2017:  (good draft)

1 - Fournette

2 - McCaffrey

3 - Corey Davis

4 - Joe Mixon

5 - Dalvin Cook

 

2016: 

1 - Ezekiel Elliott

2 - Corey Coleman

3 - Laquon Treadwell

4 - Josh Doctson

5 - Sterling Shepard

#2 RB was Derrick Henry

 

2015: 

1 - Todd Gurley

2 - Amari Cooper

3 - Melvin Gordon

4 - TJ Yeldon

5 - DeVante Parker

 

2014: 

1 - Sammy Watkins

2 - Mike Evans

3 - Bishop Sankey

4 - Carlos Hyde

5 - Brandin Cooks

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26 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You already have a team in place.  You act like you have to build a starting lineup with rookies only.

 

"Generational" talent doesn't come out of the draft every year.  You could potentially have another LaDanian Tomlinson and you're talking about trading him.  All it takes is for one of those 2 picks to bust for the trade to go to sh-t.  Look at the past rookie dynasty drafts.  For example the top 5 picks of recent rookie dynasty drafts based on adp are:

 

2017:  (good draft)

1 - Fournette

2 - McCaffrey

3 - Corey Davis

4 - Joe Mixon

5 - Dalvin Cook

 

2016: 

1 - Ezekiel Elliott

2 - Corey Coleman

3 - Laquon Treadwell

4 - Josh Doctson

5 - Sterling Shepard

#2 RB was Derrick Henry

 

2015: 

1 - Todd Gurley

2 - Amari Cooper

3 - Melvin Gordon

4 - TJ Yeldon

5 - DeVante Parker

 

2014: 

1 - Sammy Watkins

2 - Mike Evans

3 - Bishop Sankey

4 - Carlos Hyde

5 - Brandin Cooks

 

 

Let me help you out almost every year there is some rookie touted as a generational talent , now if u want to keep it to rb's  fournette-trent-gurley-zeke-bush-mcfaddden  and you can name more for various other positions. It's pretty much a marketing term that's good biz for the NFL that builds excitement and helps them to monetize their draft process. So great for the NFL but doesnt help me much in fantasy. Generational is not a term i can assign a standardized value too, generational is an opinion.

 

So you can focus on the term 'generational talent' and what it means to you. I have already stated i don't value the term and it doesnt apply to what I value in roster construction for fantasy.

 

So once again if u offer me 1.02+1.03 or more for my 1.01 I will lift your offer without hesitation because i value optionality. There is sort of randomness in outcomes of rookies who become elite players. You value the so called perceived 'certainty' that's fine.

 

So you have your process and I have mine and that's ok:lol:

Edited by dashoe

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Let me help you out almost every year there is some rookie touted as a generational talent , now if u want to keep it to rb's  fournette-trent-gurley-zeke-bush-mcfaddden  and you can name more for various other positions. It's pretty much a marketing term that's good biz for the NFL that builds excitement and helps them to monetize their draft process. So great for the NFL but doesnt help me much in fantasy. Generational is not a term i can assign a standardized value too, generational is an opinion.

 

So you can focus on the term 'generational talent' and what it means to you. I have already stated i don't value the term and it doesnt apply to what I value in roster construction for fantasy.

 

So once again if u offer me 1.02+1.03 or more for my 1.01 I will lift your offer without hesitation because i value optionality. There is sort of randomness in outcomes of rookies who become elite players. You value the so called perceived 'certainty' that's fine.

 

So you have your process and I have mine and that's ok:lol:

 

If you treat every draft as thought the 1.01 is less valuable than the 1.02 + 1.03 you won't be very successful in serious dynasty leagues.  

 

No serious owner would even think to offer just the 1.02 + 1.03 for Barkley; it's insulting. 

 

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

If you treat every draft as thought the 1.01 is less valuable than the 1.02 + 1.03 you won't be very successful in serious dynasty leagues.  

 

No serious owner would even think to offer just the 1.02 + 1.03 for Barkley; it's insulting. 

 

 

 

So 'serious" is a standard qualifier for dynasty leagues  say versus less serious, more serious, somewhat serious, extremely serious, insanely serious or almost serious?

 

It's difficult to incorporate the opinion of a guy who makes the type of statement you made below :D

 

 

 

7 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

This

 

Hindsight analysis doesn't help anyone.

 

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Serious = money leagues, particularly those with entry fees > $100. 

 

There's an opening in one of my dynasty leagues now (entry fee $280) if you're interested. 

 

No serious dynasty owner would accept the 1.02 + 1.03 alone for Barkley. Maybe in free leagues, though. 

 

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21 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

Serious = money leagues, particularly those with entry fees > $100. 

 

There's an opening in one of my dynasty leagues now (entry fee $280) if you're interested. 

 

No serious dynasty owner would accept the 1.02 + 1.03 alone for Barkley. Maybe in free leagues, though. 

 

Define "opening"

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On 6/29/2018 at 8:04 PM, joshua18 said:
On 6/29/2018 at 8:04 PM, joshua18 said:

 

Silver division

 

https://www.mastersfantasyfootballleagues.com/orphan_teams.php

 

   tried to get in. lookig at orphan teams..... it wouldnt let me because i couldnt put in the state of iowa as my address?????? dont think they are allowed in iowa. i was going to buy a bronze team that had 3 top stars at rb/wr/te.....zeke-obj-graham. stafford at qb. alex collins was other rb? wr was a shambles.....traded away a lot of talent it seemed or just didnt draft much after he had zeke and beckham? maybe he had to clean house trade to get those 2 guys? ....not much else. first pick was a 2.03???? $108 buy in. 10 players 20 roster spots/ 1ir. i was going to go on that team. would have tried to move up in draft for a first round rb. guice/penny/micheal???? not bad.

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On 6/29/2018 at 2:49 PM, dashoe said:

 

 

So 'serious" is a standard qualifier for dynasty leagues  say versus less serious, more serious, somewhat serious, extremely serious, insanely serious or almost serious?

 

It's difficult to incorporate the opinion of a guy who makes the type of statement you made below :D

 

 

 

 

 

I've had that dude on ignore for years; but always get a kick out of leagues defined as 'serious".

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Is anyone nervous about Saquon's schedule to open the season?  Warren Sharp ranked the Giant's schedule as the 4th most difficult in the league overall and

 

No team plays a tougher Weeks 1-7 schedule than the Giants, who face four top-ten teams in their first seven games (Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Jaguars) as well as the Panthers and Texans. Collectively, the G-Men draw the second-most-difficult schedule of pass defenses in the league. The second half of the season is considerably easier, including five bottom-ten opponents in Weeks 8-16. 

 

I know this kid is talented, but a slow start seems very likely with Jags, @ DAL, @ HOU, NO all in the first four weeks.  Even though the Giants invested in their offensive line this off season, PFF still ranks them the 25th best unit in the league.  Saquon showed in college that he can succeed behind a bad line but these are the small things that are pushing Saquon below Hopkins and Kamara for me in PPR.  

 

 

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10 minutes ago, SvanE42 said:

Is anyone nervous about Saquon's schedule to open the season?  Warren Sharp ranked the Giant's schedule as the 4th most difficult in the league overall and

 

No team plays a tougher Weeks 1-7 schedule than the Giants, who face four top-ten teams in their first seven games (Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Jaguars) as well as the Panthers and Texans. Collectively, the G-Men draw the second-most-difficult schedule of pass defenses in the league. The second half of the season is considerably easier, including five bottom-ten opponents in Weeks 8-16. 

 

I know this kid is talented, but a slow start seems very likely with Jags, @ DAL, @ HOU, NO all in the first four weeks.  Even though the Giants invested in their offensive line this off season, PFF still ranks them the 25th best unit in the league.  Saquon showed in college that he can succeed behind a bad line but these are the small things that are pushing Saquon below Hopkins and Kamara for me in PPR.  

 

 

 

Not at all. The more difficult the opponent, the more targets he's going to get in catch-up mode.

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12 minutes ago, SvanE42 said:

Is anyone nervous about Saquon's schedule to open the season?  Warren Sharp ranked the Giant's schedule as the 4th most difficult in the league overall and

 

No team plays a tougher Weeks 1-7 schedule than the Giants, who face four top-ten teams in their first seven games (Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Jaguars) as well as the Panthers and Texans. Collectively, the G-Men draw the second-most-difficult schedule of pass defenses in the league. The second half of the season is considerably easier, including five bottom-ten opponents in Weeks 8-16. 

 

I know this kid is talented, but a slow start seems very likely with Jags, @ DAL, @ HOU, NO all in the first four weeks.  Even though the Giants invested in their offensive line this off season, PFF still ranks them the 25th best unit in the league.  Saquon showed in college that he can succeed behind a bad line but these are the small things that are pushing Saquon below Hopkins and Kamara for me in PPR.  

 

 

 

his best attribute, and the reason I am so high on him in fantasy, is his receiving ability. Those yards can, and will, count too. 

 

Also, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

everyone of those defenses you're afraid of is mediocre at best VS RBs in the passing game

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16 minutes ago, SvanE42 said:

No team plays a tougher Weeks 1-7 schedule than the Giants, who face four top-ten teams in their first seven games (Eagles, Saints, Falcons, Jaguars) as well as the Panthers and Texans. Collectively, the G-Men draw the second-most-difficult schedule of pass defenses in the league. The second half of the season is considerably easier, including five bottom-ten opponents in Weeks 8-16. 

What does facing good pass defenses have to do with Saquon? If anything it's good for him.

Edited by RMJ_12

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