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Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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I’ve said this before, believe me or not - up to you - in practices closed off to the media, Barkley has spent considerable amounts of time working as a WR 

 

I don’t mean motioning into the slot, I mean playing wide receiver. He is going to catch a ton of passes in this offense, as it’s literally the first attribute Shurmur looks for in a RB - not to mention his OC Shula is the guy who fed Mccaffrey 80+ receptions his rookie year. 

 

Short version: No I couldn’t care less about his early season schedule. 

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/new-york-giants/Bolt/Pat-Shurmur-Saquon-Barkley-could-handle-a-massive-workload-117761109/

 

Shurmur also had trouble comparing him to any running back he's ever coached or watched play in the NFL.

"He is unique for me because he has quickness and he has speed," Shurmur said. "He can score touchdowns from any part of the field and he has a couple of things I am looking for. Number one, he can catch the football. That is first and foremost. He has great vision and then he has what we call in coaching ‘collision balance’. When he goes through the hole and someone tries to tackle him, he can keep his balance, but also when he is stepping up to try and block someone, he has a good set of lowers to drop his weight on him. We are going to nitpick him, I’m sure, at some point, but this is a guy that can do everything."

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast
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21 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

I’ve said this before, believe me or not - up to you - in practices closed off to the media, Barkley has spent considerable amounts of time working as a WR 

 

I don’t mean motioning into the slot, I mean playing wide receiver. He is going to catch a ton of passes in this offense, as it’s literally the first attribute Shurmur looks for in a RB - not to mention his OC Shula is the guy who fed Mccaffrey 80+ receptions his rookie year. 

 

Short version: No I couldn’t care less about his early season schedule. 

 

 

Last year everyone who wrote fantasy articles said you need to sell high on Gurley because of his SOS over the back half of the season. If you are an elite multifaceted back it doesn't matter the defenses you play because you will still get the ball plenty. So the only thing left to debate is wether or not you think he is an elite back, I think he is but if you are an owner who doesn't believe he is elite than you will obviously avoid him.

Edited by Ddam2013
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1 minute ago, Ddam2013 said:

Last year everyone who wrote fantasy articles said you need to sell high on Gurley because of his SOS over the back half of the season. If you are an elite multifaceted back it doesn't matter the defenses you play because you will still get the ball plenty. So the only thing left to debate is wether or not you think he is an elite back, I think he is but if you are an owner who doesn't believe he is elite than you will obviously avoid him.

 

Yes. In fact many were saying to sell high on him after week 1. 

 

Bobby Sylvester of the fantasypros podcast was weekly advocating to sell Gurley high. 

 

Always good to remember these cautionary tales of the past when elite RBs were underestimated. 

 

Especially for an RB about whom Alvin Kamara's head coach said is the best RB prospect of the past 25 years. 

 

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14 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Yes. In fact many were saying to sell high on him after week 1. 

 

Bobby Sylvester of the fantasypros podcast was weekly advocating to sell Gurley high. 

 

Always good to remember these cautionary tales of the past when elite RBs were underestimated. 

 

Especially for an RB about whom Alvin Kamara's head coach said is the best RB prospect of the past 25 years. 

 

 

a point that continues to be ignored ... 

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36 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Yes. In fact many were saying to sell high on him after week 1. 

 

Bobby Sylvester of the fantasypros podcast was weekly advocating to sell Gurley high. 

 

Always good to remember these cautionary tales of the past when elite RBs were underestimated. 

 

Especially for an RB about whom Alvin Kamara's head coach said is the best RB prospect of the past 25 years. 

 

 

Bobby Sylvester is a moron. Don't know how Mike T puts up with him.

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https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-saquon-barkleys-pass-game-impact-for-nyg

 

"Barkley totaled 644 yards after the catch, the most among draft-eligible backs last season. Barkley’s total at Penn State is one more yard after the catch than Giants running backs combined to haul in (643) all last season... A big part of his ability to pick up yards after the catch is Barkley’s skills at making defenders miss. In 2017, Barkley forced 14 missed tackles on his receptions, tied for second most among draft-eligible backs...Those extra yards after the catch put Barkley in a league of his own. Barkley was the only college running back to receive more than 50 targets and average more than 10 yards per reception last season (11.7 yards per reception on 65 targets)...Barkley brings a more secure set of pass-catching skills to the New York backfield. In his final two seasons at Penn State, Barkley had just five total drops on 102 targets. Since 2006, the only NFL backs to record at least 100 targets with five or fewer drops in a season are Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Christian McCaffrey."

 

* Shurmur's RBs [Mckinnon, Cook, Murray put up ~80 receptions last year ... Barkley is better than them.] 

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38 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-saquon-barkleys-pass-game-impact-for-nyg

 

"Barkley totaled 644 yards after the catch, the most among draft-eligible backs last season. Barkley’s total at Penn State is one more yard after the catch than Giants running backs combined to haul in (643) all last season... A big part of his ability to pick up yards after the catch is Barkley’s skills at making defenders miss. In 2017, Barkley forced 14 missed tackles on his receptions, tied for second most among draft-eligible backs...Those extra yards after the catch put Barkley in a league of his own. Barkley was the only college running back to receive more than 50 targets and average more than 10 yards per reception last season (11.7 yards per reception on 65 targets)...Barkley brings a more secure set of pass-catching skills to the New York backfield. In his final two seasons at Penn State, Barkley had just five total drops on 102 targets. Since 2006, the only NFL backs to record at least 100 targets with five or fewer drops in a season are Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Christian McCaffrey."

 

* Shurmur's RBs [Mckinnon, Cook, Murray put up ~80 receptions last year ... Barkley is better than them.] 

HOw many college RBs have 100+ targets and fewer than 6 drops?  Was that information available?

 

it would be interesting to see how many college players have done it

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Honestly, isn’t it bad to be low like that all the time? Can’t you tear your acl like that? 

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I'm officially onboard this train in 4 of my leagues :)

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1 hour ago, wonderbread said:

Can we all just agree that Szechuan is the best RB (not named Christine Michael) to have ever been born?

Cadillac Williams says hello

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2 hours ago, wonderbread said:

Can we all just agree that Szechuan is the best RB (not named Christine Michael) to have ever been born?

Szechuan? YES!

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His ADP is #7. I think guys like DJ really should be better value, but if he falls to you and you really feel he will be better than Zeke or Bell or DJ or AB... Snag him by all means.

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12 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Saquon Barkley = bigger, faster, stronger than Christine Michael 

 

+ a better receiver 

 

upside = immortality

 

You left out vision and football IQ.

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IN

 

drew 7 hole for my second (of three) ppr league last night ... would expect Gurley/Zeke/Bell/DJ/AB/Nuk (possibly Kamara if Nuk slides) ... then this kid is all mine. i will pound that "draft" button like a mo'

 

local league, all in the greater NYC area, but thankfully there are no blind homer idiots who will snag this kid simply because he plays tackle foosball for the Jints - if he is scooped prior to my turn it will be due to an astute owner who welcomes 300 touches and double digit TDs. 

 

we draft in this league night before season opening game ... hope he has a "meh" exhibition month. 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

IN

 

drew 7 hole for my second (of three) ppr league last night ... would expect Gurley/Zeke/Bell/DJ/AB/Nuk (possibly Kamara if Nuk slides) ... then this kid is all mine. i will pound that "draft" button like a mo'

 

local league, all in the greater NYC area, but thankfully there are no blind homer idiots who will snag this kid simply because he plays tackle foosball for the Jints - if he is scooped prior to my turn it will be due to an astute owner who welcomes 300 touches and double digit TDs. 

 

we draft in this league night before season opening game ... hope he has a "meh" exhibition month. 

 

 

 

I selected him 4th overall in our rotoworld .5 PPR because I fully expect 300-320 touches with 70 receptions (that’s 15 carries, 3-5 receptions per game ... no reason to expect less from him) as he is essentially a DJ clone with slightly more strength / athletic ability 

 

A “risk”, sure ... but he’s worth it. Talent, workload, and defenses not being able to key solely on him (a la Fournette/DJ) have me quite optimistic 

 

Cant stack the box with Odell/Shep/Engram ... not to mention the OL (particularly the left side) should be vastly improved 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/pff_giants/status/998913368009396224

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/pff_giants/status/1000104969331130368

 

 

Here’s what happens when his left side,  against the best CFB run defense, did their job

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast
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How about #2 Overall??

I'm in multiple leagues, and I already have Bell and Gurley. I also like to spread things out, so I own a lot different players.

 

In a best-ball, mostly draft and hold league, would I be crazy to take him #2 overall. It's probably between him and Zeke if I decide not to double up on Bell or Gurley.

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2 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

How about #2 Overall??

I'm in multiple leagues, and I already have Bell and Gurley. I also like to spread things out, so I own a lot different players.

 

In a best-ball, mostly draft and hold league, would I be crazy to take him #2 overall. It's probably between him and Zeke if I decide not to double up on Bell or Gurley.

 

That's where I'd take him.

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11 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

How about #2 Overall??

I'm in multiple leagues, and I already have Bell and Gurley. I also like to spread things out, so I own a lot different players.

 

In a best-ball, mostly draft and hold league, would I be crazy to take him #2 overall. It's probably between him and Zeke if I decide not to double up on Bell or Gurley.

 

In PPR, I would consider him over Zeke

 

 

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18 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

In PPR, I would consider him over Zeke

 

 

Thanks. It's full PPR.

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