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Saquon Barkley 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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PPR:
1. Gurley
2. Bell
3. Kamara
4. Johnson
5. Saquon

He's climbing up for me... and I don't usually like Rookie RB's in the 1st.

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31 minutes ago, ponza88 said:

PPR:
1. Gurley
2. Bell
3. Kamara
4. Johnson
5. Saquon

He's climbing up for me... and I don't usually like Rookie RB's in the 1st.

 

league i was referencing earlier goes one better ... the other 11 owners are allergic to any rookies. period. 

 

now, not saying that they are never rostered by other teams besides mine, but they gotta slide far for another chap to take the plunge - i can almost assure that if i chose to, i could have Barkley/Penny/Guice/Michel/RoJo as my stable this season ... and they will be drafted well below ADP in said league. 

 

each league is different, as we all know - so, in my case, i am kinda certain he's there at lucky 7 for me.  lotta scared/conservative coin in slots 1-6.   their loss.  

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12 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

league i was referencing earlier goes one better ... the other 11 owners are allergic to any rookies. period. 

 

now, not saying that they are never rostered by other teams besides mine, but they gotta slide far for another chap to take the plunge - i can almost assure that if i chose to, i could have Barkley/Penny/Guice/Michel/RoJo as my stable this season ... and they will be drafted well below ADP in said league. 

 

each league is different, as we all know - so, in my case, i am kinda certain he's there at lucky 7 for me.  lotta scared/conservative coin in slots 1-6.   their loss.  

 

I got #8 in a 10 team. All new people but i doubt Barkley makes it past 7. If he does i may grab him, but honestly im not sure if he or Odell will benefit more from the offense. Cause at the end of the round i have a choice between the two.... you still got Hopkins, Hunt, Fournette as well in that spot after 6. Crazy year, honestly cant go wrong with anyone but Barkley is climbing up for me as well but i dont think i’ll get him.

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1 hour ago, ponza88 said:

PPR:
1. Gurley
2. Bell
3. Kamara
4. Johnson
5. Saquon

He's climbing up for me... and I don't usually like Rookie RB's in the 1st.

No Zeke in top 5 is nuts.

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30 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

No Zeke in top 5 is nuts.

 

PPR would be the only reason, but I agree nonetheless

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34 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

No Zeke in top 5 is nuts.


You're right, my bad.

PPR:
1. Gurley
2. Bell
3. Kamara
4. Zeke

5. Johnson
6. Saquon

I want to put Johnson over Zeke... but I'm having a really hard time with it.

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I'm likely going to be the 5th or 6th pick (out of 12) in my .5 PPR draft and at first I wasn't crazy about it but now I am loving that spot in the draft after seeing the options in this range as well as who is still there in the 2nd round.

 

Kamara? Saquon? Hopkins?

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1 hour ago, ponza88 said:


You're right, my bad.

PPR:
1. Gurley
2. Bell
3. Kamara
4. Zeke

5. Johnson
6. Saquon

I want to put Johnson over Zeke... but I'm having a really hard time with it.

Your gut is right! DJ > Zeke easily for me in PPR. 

 

Is pretty much the entire offense? Check

Amazing pass catching abilities? Check 

Runs with power and purpose, guaranteeing him goal line looks and scores? Check 

Decent defense to keep scores reasonably close? Check 

Shown the ability to withstand a huge workload? Check

Already succeeded in a sub par offense? Check 

 

 

David Johnson is pretty much in the exact same position that made him the consensus #1 pick last year. For me, hes the #2 overall player in ppr after Gurley.

 

Edited by furbz420
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4 hours ago, furbz420 said:

David Johnson is pretty much in the exact same position that made him the consensus #1 pick last year. For me, hes the #2 overall player in ppr after Gurley.

 

 

Couldn't disagree more.  This season, he has way more question marks at the QB position, a brand new offense/coaching staff that will not be the pass first offense that we were used to under Arians, and  the Cardinals are carrying one of the lowest win totals in the NFL.  This team may be bad.  

 

I won't say that all of these differences will necessarily create a negative impact on DJ, but to say that he is in the same exact position as last season is crazy.  A lot to think about when it comes to this Cardinals team.   

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I mentioned it in another thread, but the last two games DJ has played have ended in season-ending injuries. And sure people can say they're fluky, but it can't be completely dismissed. Zeke is a safer pick IMO. Slightly lower ceiling, but barring trouble with the law, a considerably higher floor. DJ is one serious injury away from the commentary going from fluky injuries to can't stay healthy.

Edited by BGDDYKWL
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8 hours ago, CABLE87 said:

 

I got #8 in a 10 team. All new people but i doubt Barkley makes it past 7. If he does i may grab him, but honestly im not sure if he or Odell will benefit more from the offense. Cause at the end of the round i have a choice between the two.... you still got Hopkins, Hunt, Fournette as well in that spot after 6. Crazy year, honestly cant go wrong with anyone but Barkley is climbing up for me as well but i dont think i’ll get him.

 

I'm making the bet he gets plenty of targets and touches in ppr to finish top 10 but I'm not optimistic about double digit TD's, unlike many I think you will see jstew vulture some goal line work and his solid pass protection is overlooked. I don't think you can go wrong taking Barkley # 4,5 or 6 off the board however  after bell-zeke it's really a slice and dice on outlooks of kamara-dj-barkley for me. I would even add I wouldnt blink if fournette was taken in the top 5 because I think he is going to have an amazing sophmore season particularly with their defense ability to pass defend and ivory gone.  The guy on the wrap around who grabs fournette may get the season winning equivalent of the guy who took Gurley in the 2nd last year. 

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2 hours ago, SvanE42 said:

 

Couldn't disagree more.  This season, he has way more question marks at the QB position, a brand new offense/coaching staff that will not be the pass first offense that we were used to under Arians, and  the Cardinals are carrying one of the lowest win totals in the NFL.  This team may be bad.  

 

I won't say that all of these differences will necessarily create a negative impact on DJ, but to say that he is in the same exact position as last season is crazy.  A lot to think about when it comes to this Cardinals team.   

Yea I have to say I agree, DJ worries me this year. Not saying he will have a bad season but there are other guys I'm gunning for ahead of him easily 

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11 hours ago, ponza88 said:

5. Saquon

He's climbing up for me...

Climbing without playing one minute?

This is based on OTA, or other inside info? Or is the hype getting to you a bit?

 

Not dismissing it, mind you, but personally I think there are safer options in the top 15 - Hopkins, Julio, Hunt or Fournette should be able to get similar production with less risk.

 

I love rookies, but at the right price. Saquon @ 6 may work out, but it won't be me.

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8 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Climbing without playing one minute?

This is based on OTA, or other inside info? Or is the hype getting to you a bit?

 

Not dismissing it, mind you, but personally I think there are safer options in the top 15 - Hopkins, Julio, Hunt or Fournette should be able to get similar production with less risk.

 

I love rookies, but at the right price. Saquon @ 6 may work out, but it won't be me.


It's from watching film, reading articles, watching documentaries, and looking at the Giants Offense as a whole.

I'm starting to warm up to Saquon a bit. Besides the Due Diligence i've done, I also like him as a person and where he landed. 

The Giants is the perfect landing spot.

I agree, there are safer options... but his unrealized ceiling coupled with what professionals have said about him... makes for a very exciting lottery ticket in the first round.

If he's a generational talent like some say, he may be a league winner.

Edited by ponza88
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25 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Climbing without playing one minute?

This is based on OTA, or other inside info? Or is the hype getting to you a bit?

 

Not dismissing it, mind you, but personally I think there are safer options in the top 15 - Hopkins, Julio, Hunt or Fournette should be able to get similar production with less risk.

 

I love rookies, but at the right price. Saquon @ 6 may work out, but it won't be me.

 

Volume bet for me on an overall improved Giants offense. I don't see how the OC doesnt feed his rb with an immobile aging QB

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29 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I don't see how the OC doesnt feed his rb with an immobile aging QB

1. Yes.

2. But... Are we now expecting rational behavior from coaching staff? ;)

3. Also, feeding the RB is good. Relying on one weapon is bad.

Just saying, it's not a done deal yet. 

 

Look, this kid looks to be the real deal (on wheels of steel). I'm just a bit wary of the hype. If you guys pick him up at #5 or 6, I can't really fault you. I just want him a little lower.

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9 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

1. Yes.

2. But... Are we now expecting rational behavior from coaching staff? ;)

3. Also, feeding the RB is good. Relying on one weapon is bad.

Just saying, it's not a done deal yet. 

 

Look, this kid looks to be the real deal (on wheels of steel). I'm just a bit wary of the hype. If you guys pick him up at #5 or 6, I can't really fault you. I just want him a little lower.


All things considered...

For me, as of today, it would be (PPR):

1. Gurley
2. Bell
3. Kamara
4. Johnson
5. Brown
6. Zeke
7. Hopkins
8. Saquon

Edited by ponza88

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25 minutes ago, ponza88 said:


All things considered...

For me, as of today, it would be (PPR):

1. Gurley
2. Bell
3. Kamara
4. Johnson
5. Brown
6. Zeke
7. Hopkins
8. Saquon

Gurley 1, Zeke 2.

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6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

personally I think there are safer options in the top 15 - Hopkins, Julio, Hunt or Fournette should be able to get similar production with less risk..

What risk?  You don't draft a RB #2 overall to not be a workhorse.  Even Trent Richardson got 318 touches as a rookie.  Barkley is as safe as they come, otherwise he wouldn't be a 1st round fantasy pick.  What's really the difference between taking him #5 overall or #11 overall.  He's still someone's 1st pick.  "Safe" doesn't necessarily have to mean proven in Barkley's case.  He's guaranteed to be top 10 in touches.

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6 hours ago, ponza88 said:

I agree, there are safer options... 

 

scared money don't make money ... i never once enjoyed a gambling venture when playing safe  -  even if i came up bupkis, i was happy for the ride i decided to take.  part of this is my track mentality: "bet a little to win a lot".   this is not to say i never plunked coin on chalk, but, ferchrissakes, the thrill is vacant.  big friggin' deal.    (btw, i know you are not personally advocating for the "safer" option, just wanted to riff off your quote).

 

 

6 hours ago, ponza88 said:


 but his unrealized ceiling coupled with what professionals have said about him... makes for a very exciting lottery ticket in the first round.

If he's a generational talent like some say, he may be a league winner.

 

THIS.  

 

i really can't see not pouncing on this kid if he's there ... and if i get a higher slot in my third league than the 7 or 11 holes i drew thus far in the other two then it's gogogo time.  right now the only guy i crave more is Gurley ... Zeke/DJ are sensational proven commodities, but both of their offenses will be in a state of flux this year ... could be lean gigs for both.  if they stand for the whole 16 they will be very productive, no question, but the limitations of their supporting casts cannot be dismissed.  Bell would give me slight pause in passing, and that Stillers offense is certainly the most potent of any of the situations of the guys we're discussing here - but i just get an off vibe with Bell this year ... dunno, man ... ya got the Ben factor as well, that offense goes in the freakin' terlet when he's absent, that whole sitch with the contract ... meh ... just not loving it.  and i wanna love my first round pick.

 

36 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

What risk?  You don't draft a RB #2 overall to not be a workhorse.  Even Trent Richardson got 318 touches as a rookie.  Barkley is as safe as they come, otherwise he wouldn't be a 1st round fantasy pick.  What's really the difference between taking him #5 overall or #11 overall.  He's still someone's 1st pick.  "Safe" doesn't necessarily have to mean proven in Barkley's case.  He's guaranteed to be top 10 in touches.

 

well said, especially the reminder of TRich ... on an anemic offense, toiling in Cleveland.  

 

i'd guarantee that if the kid plays at least 14 games that he'll be at least top 5 without question.  the table is set.  the tools are abundant.  the supporting cast is potent and hungry. the O-Line is revamped and ready to roll.  i firmly believe his ceiling is realistically attainable, and that's #1 overall.

 

7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Climbing without playing one minute?

This is based on OTA, or other inside info? Or is the hype getting to you a bit?

 

Not dismissing it, mind you, but personally I think there are safer options in the top 15 - Hopkins, Julio, Hunt or Fournette should be able to get similar production with less risk.

 

I love rookies, but at the right price. Saquon @ 6 may work out, but it won't be me.

 

nobody loves them some Nuk this year more than me ... but if presented with both, i snag the Jints phenom.  

 

the other chaps are Jim Dandy for back end of the first, and all with legit questions themselves ... injuries, Reid, etc.  i'd say Lenny Snaps is my choice given that lot .... toss in MGIII and Keenan and Thomas and Cook, as well.   it's not a horrible place to be this year, i'll say that.

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No sure there is an argument for Hopkins over Saquon in ppr. At least I don't see one. Ppr is all about catching balls and regardless of the perception that wrs are much more valuable, the reality is that running backs who catch balls and get all carries are the most valuable fantasy players by a mile in this format. Saquon is going to catch 50 or 60 balls. That's gold and much more valuable than a wr. 

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1 hour ago, Mattice1 said:

No sure there is an argument for Hopkins over Saquon in ppr. At least I don't see one. Ppr is all about catching balls and regardless of the perception that wrs are much more valuable, the reality is that running backs who catch balls and get all carries are the most valuable fantasy players by a mile in this format. Saquon is going to catch 50 or 60 balls. That's gold and much more valuable than a wr. 

 

I think 50-60 is his floor to be honest. I have no doubt in my mind he tops 50 receptions 

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28 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

I think 50-60 is his floor to be honest. I have no doubt in my mind he tops 50 receptions 

Yep. I agree completely. Which is why people taking Hopkins first are crazy. Running back catching balls wins ppr leagues and has for a long time(LT, DJ, priest/lj, etc). 

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