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Sony Michel 2018 Outlook


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1 hour ago, Panthor said:

 

that's like saying it is unpredictable because someone could get hurt.  the whole point is there are defined roles.  it is predictable.  but you can't control outside forces.  just because it take a little more effort to read the tea leaves in NE doesn't mean they can't be read.  calling it unpredictable is simply lazy

Prediction is relative phrase. Unless they have at least a solid RB that has a strong reputation of being a good pass blocker and secure ball holder, it's difficult to predict who will be getting snaps at RB in November. But knowing who's going to play week to week is less difficult. The problem arises that when you draft, you don't pick a player for week 1 or week 2. Given that every RB they have is either a rookie who's missed a lot of camp due to injury or niche player at best, this is easily a situation that could blow up in your face if you overdraft. I like Michel as a late round guy for the upside, but everyone seems to have high probability of being a wasted pick by season's end.

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Alvin Kamara was in a similar, if not worse, situation with the Saints at the start of 2017.  Now Kamara's being selected in the first round of fantasy football drafts.

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1 hour ago, Digitalpower35 said:

Exactly why I draft him late round. 

If you're looking for a Kamara comp should be looking at Trequan Smith.

 

And really who isn't looking for that.

 

Sony? He's more like a rich mans James White.

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2 hours ago, Storenut said:

Well one is a RB and the other a WR. So...

 

FYI, when arguing on the internet you should usually have your example/players correct (especially on this forum). 

I meant burkhead... My apologies.  I feel most people could probably piece that together though, oh well.

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1 hour ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

Hogan and Michel have similar prices? Hogan is around 40 while Michel is 90 in Yahoo. Burkhead is around 60.

I meant burkhead naturally my mistake.  Yahoo adp is pretty questionable from what I've seen of it.  The two NE rbs are about 1 round apart usually from my experience.

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Reasons I Like Sony...

 

- I have a hard time seeing 28 year old Rex Burkhead becoming a 200+ touch player after never having handled more than 95 in any one season. Especially considering he plays special teams and might even return punts this year.

 

- James White seems pretty much capped at ~40 carries a year with ~60 catches.

 

- Rookie running backs who were drafted in the first-round over the last six years finish as a RB1 80 percent of the time.

 

- The Patriots have shown they have no issues giving a RB 300+ touches in a season (Blount, Ridley, and Dillion)

 

- I think there is like a 25% chance neither Hill or Gillislee either don't make the final roster or are inactive on Sundays which would open up big TD upside for Sony.

 

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1 hour ago, AJ92 said:

Reasons I Like Sony...

 

- I have a hard time seeing 28 year old Rex Burkhead becoming a 200+ touch player after never having handled more than 95 in any one season. Especially considering he plays special teams and might even return punts this year.

 

- James White seems pretty much capped at ~40 carries a year with ~60 catches.

 

- Rookie running backs who were drafted in the first-round over the last six years finish as a RB1 80 percent of the time.

 

- The Patriots have shown they have no issues giving a RB 300+ touches in a season (Blount, Ridley, and Dillion)

 

- I think there is like a 25% chance neither Hill or Gillislee either don't make the final roster or are inactive on Sundays which would open up big TD upside for Sony.

 

 

Interesting.  Can you provide details?

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1 hour ago, AJ92 said:

Reasons I Like Sony...

 

- I have a hard time seeing 28 year old Rex Burkhead becoming a 200+ touch player after never having handled more than 95 in any one season. Especially considering he plays special teams and might even return punts this year.

 

- James White seems pretty much capped at ~40 carries a year with ~60 catches.

 

- Rookie running backs who were drafted in the first-round over the last six years finish as a RB1 80 percent of the time.

 

- The Patriots have shown they have no issues giving a RB 300+ touches in a season (Blount, Ridley, and Dillion)

 

- I think there is like a 25% chance neither Hill or Gillislee either don't make the final roster or are inactive on Sundays which would open up big TD upside for Sony.

 

 

80% of the time...ALL the time

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6 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

The debate between patriots RBs can go on back and forth into oblivion. Do yourself a favor and stay away from all of them. 

 

You make it sound like youre drafting a Rb from the Lions or something.

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4 minutes ago, whips02 said:

 

80% of the time...ALL the time

I checked, pretty sure he’s not wrong. But I attribute that to being few RBs taken in the 1st round. I can’t see Sony getting enough work to be a RB1 or even rb2, but who knows with the Pats.

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Interesting.  1st round RBs last 6 years: Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Trent Richardson, Tavon Austin, Doug Martin, David Wilson. 

 

Can probably throw out Austin, who was primarily a receiver from the start.  And Wilson fumbled his way out of a real chance as rookie. Pretty impressive success rate as rookies.   I'm convinced.  Its true these teams don't burn a 1st on a RB just to use the guy part time. 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, OrangeCrush said:

So let's do the homework:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft#Player_selections

2017 draft: Fournette (8), McCaffrey (15, but 10 in PPR)

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/rb.php?year=2017

 

2016: Zeke (2)

2015: Gurley (5), Gordon (53)

2014: none

2013: Tavon Austin (-)

2012: Trent Richardson (9), Doug Martin (2), David Wilson (47)

 

So that's out of 9 RBs in the first round, I get 6 (if you count CMC). That's not 80%.

Now, just for fun, let's take a look at the Running Backs selected by NE in the past 6 years:

2017: none

2016: none

2015: none

2014: James White (144)

2013: none

2012: none
So, out of the RBs drafted by NE, 0% ended up as RB1.

Last but not least, does anyone know the percentage the Hoodie did something like everybody else?

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9 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Last but not least, does anyone know the percentage the Hoodie did something like everybody else?

 

Why did Hoodie use a 1st round pick on a RB when they need help on defense and they have been fine with bargain bin RBs?

 

And Im not sure why are people are counting Austin as a RB.

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24 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Why did use a 1st round pick on a RB when they need help on defense and they have been fine with bargain bin RBs?

I honestly have no earthly idea other than that he saw value, or possibly his Excel sheet crashed. It's clear what they really needed was defense.

 

If BB saw value, that's usually because he has a different view than most of us (which is, let's face it, how he's been successful for 15+ years).

 

He has no set patterns. He plays the opponent, plays the matchup and I think Sony had the skills they lost with Lewis: speed, pass catching, versatile.

 

I expect Lewis type usage: 15 touches per game once he establishes some confidence and trust. I picked up Lewis on the wire last year, and that was pretty good, so I'd be happy with that. Not a chance I'm paying RB1/bellcow prices for Sony though (but that's not where he's going).

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21 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

So let's do the homework:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft#Player_selections

2017 draft: Fournette (8), McCaffrey (15, but 10 in PPR)

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/rb.php?year=2017

 

2016: Zeke (2)

2015: Gurley (5), Gordon (53)

2014: none

2013: Tavon Austin (-)

2012: Trent Richardson (9), Doug Martin (2), David Wilson (47)

 

So that's out of 9 RBs in the first round, I get 6 (if you count CMC). That's not 80%.

 

 

Tavon Austin got 9 carries his rookie year and almost exclusively played WR.

 

So out of 8 RBs selected in the first round since 2012 we have 6 top 10 finishes which is only 75% so my bad the stat I read seems to be 5% off but look at the touch total for all of these guys.

 

- Fournette: 304 touches

- McCaffrey: 222 touches

- Zeke: 354 touches

- Gurley: 250 touches

- Gordon: 217 touches

- Richardson: 318 touches

- Martin: 368 touches

- David Wilson: 132 touches

 

These numbers still show when a team takes a RB that high, with the exception of Wilson, they plan to use him a lot.

 

Also I'd like to point out the Michel is currently the 10th highest paid RB in the NFL so drafting him that high, paying him all that money, and then giving Rex Burkhead 20+ touches a game would kinda crazy. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I honestly have no earthly idea other than that he saw value, or possibly his Excel sheet crashed. It's clear what they really needed was defense.

 

If BB saw value, that's usually because he has a different view than most of us (which is, let's face it, how he's been successful for 15+ years).

 

He has no set patterns. He plays the opponent, plays the matchup and I think Sony had the skills they lost with Lewis: speed, pass catching, versatile.

 

I expect Lewis type usage: 15 touches per game once he establishes some confidence and trust. I picked up Lewis on the wire last year, and that was pretty good, so I'd be happy with that. Not a chance I'm paying RB1/bellcow prices for Sony though (but that's not where he's going).

At first glance I have to agree why would they spend a first on him and not use him.  Then I remember Laurence Maroney who they didn't give one start to his rookie year.  Honestly I drafted Micheal late last night.  But not expecting much.

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2 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Then I remember Laurence Maroney who they didn't give one start to his rookie year.

 

Sure but that's because they had Corey Dillion and they still gave Maroney 197 total touches in 14 games his rookies year which is only15 less than what Dion Lewis got last year. If Michel gets the same touch count Maroney got plus the goal line work he's probably a top 15 RB this year.

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1 minute ago, AJ92 said:

 

Sure but that's because they had Corey Dillion and they still gave Maroney 197 total touches in 14 games his rookies year which is only15 less than what Dion Lewis got last year. If Michel gets the same touch count Maroney got plus the goal line work he's probably a top 15 RB this year.

Didn't realize that and that is true.  But Maroney still only got 17 starts in 4 years after 16.  So its not like Bill felt tied to his first round RB.  Honestly I hope your right and he gets 15 touches a game I drafted him last night.  I'm just worried he will be the typical NE RB.  100 and 2 tds one week and 4 touches for 20 the next.

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

So let's do the homework:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft#Player_selections

2017 draft: Fournette (8), McCaffrey (15, but 10 in PPR)

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/rb.php?year=2017

 

2016: Zeke (2)

2015: Gurley (5), Gordon (53)

2014: none

2013: Tavon Austin (-)

2012: Trent Richardson (9), Doug Martin (2), David Wilson (47)

 

So that's out of 9 RBs in the first round, I get 6 (if you count CMC). That's not 80%.

Now, just for fun, let's take a look at the Running Backs selected by NE in the past 6 years:

2017: none

2016: none

2015: none

2014: James White (144)

2013: none

2012: none
So, out of the RBs drafted by NE, 0% ended up as RB1.

Last but not least, does anyone know the percentage the Hoodie did something like everybody else?

Tavon Austin wasnt drafted as a RB man, cmon you're desperately grasping for straws here

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21 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Didn't realize that and that is true.  But Maroney still only got 17 starts in 4 years after 06.  So its not like Bill felt tied to his first round RB.  Honestly I hope your right and he gets 15 touches a game I drafted him last night.  I'm just worried he will be the typical NE RB.  100 and 2 tds one week and 4 touches for 20 the next.

 

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36 minutes ago, youngrice said:

At first glance I have to agree why would they spend a first on him and not use him.  Then I remember Laurence Maroney who they didn't give one start to his rookie year.  Honestly I drafted Micheal late last night.  But not expecting much.

That was more of  a product of him just not being very good. He was out of the league a few years later. 

If Michel is as good as some thought, there is a very good chance he becomes a legit feature back and helps take some pressure off of Brady. But based on his knee and the fact that the reports out of camp weren't great to begin with, he would be a late round flier for me. 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

So let's do the homework:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft#Player_selections

2017 draft: Fournette (8), McCaffrey (15, but 10 in PPR)

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/rb.php?year=2017

 

2016: Zeke (2)

2015: Gurley (5), Gordon (53)

2014: none

2013: Tavon Austin (-)

2012: Trent Richardson (9), Doug Martin (2), David Wilson (47)

 

So that's out of 9 RBs in the first round, I get 6 (if you count CMC). That's not 80%.

Now, just for fun, let's take a look at the Running Backs selected by NE in the past 6 years:

2017: none

2016: none

2015: none

2014: James White (144)

2013: none

2012: none
So, out of the RBs drafted by NE, 0% ended up as RB1.

Last but not least, does anyone know the percentage the Hoodie did something like everybody else?

 

Far more important, and a factor that people in this thread are overlooking, is not what round they were picked in, but their draft position.

 

Yes, technically Sony Michel is a "1st-Round" pick, but is it truly fair to compare his pedigree to Fournette and Barkley?

 

How many of the RBs on that shortlist were taken 31st overall versus in the top 10?  Top 5?

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