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Sony Michel 2018 Outlook

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4 hours ago, Dirtywater97 said:

Wasn't Kamara stuck in a 3 headed committee to start the year and ridiculously underrated because people were worried about his usage.... ?.

 

Sounds like I'll be having shares in all my leagues.

Totally agree.  All this negativity surrounding a player that many had ranked as the #2 RB in this draft class after Saquon that was just taken in rd 1 by NE - a team that had some major defensive issues in 2017, which didn't use either of their two 1st rd picks on an impact def player.  This is just a long way of saying that the Pats didn't take this guy to sit him.  He's going to play plenty in 2018 and I will be targeting him aggressively.  The comp to the Kamara situation is fitting (i.e. suppressed ADP because everyone worried about Ingram and AP).

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Steal?   He was projected to be drafted @ that spot, Chubb will be a steal

You just wait.

 

4 hours ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

Dalvin cook had 3 fumbles in 16, only lost 1.

Kamara had 2 only lost 1 in 16.

Not sure where those numbers came from.

 

Point is where michel landed. The stubborn use of RBBC and Pats are notorious for putting guys in the dog house after fumbles. Other teams give a little more lee-way usually.

 my fumble numbers look better for just because. 

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6 hours ago, BrianM said:

First thing i thought of was "how long before he gets benched for fumbling?"      I really like Michel, but I hate the landing spot.    I think maybe next year he gets a full load, but I'm skeptical BB and McDaniels throw tons of volume at him right out of the gate.    Burkhead's getting plenty.  White isn't going anywhere, and somebody, Hill or Gill, is gonna be a redzone guy.    What's left after all that?

 

Wow...probably the most underrated fantasy relevant point made here. May be wise to pickup Burkhead cheap right now.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Wow...probably the most underrated fantasy relevant point made here. May be wise to pickup Burkhead cheap right now.

 

Hill is even cheaper. 

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Just now, dmb3684 said:

 

Hill is even cheaper. 

 

True, but Hill isn't guaranteed to make the roster -- only 150k of his contract is guaranteed, I believe.

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55 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

True, but Hill isn't guaranteed to make the roster -- only 150k of his contract is guaranteed, I believe.

 

I'd guess Hill replaces Gillislee and Michele, Lewis.

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Agree with the above sentiment. I also think that they wouldn't have spent a 1st round pick on a RB if they didn't intend to use him. 

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Agree with the above as well. I think this backfield will ultimately come down to Burkhead and Michel while White still catches his 50 balls for the year. Even with some rotations I think Michel will be the unquestioned lead back with Burkhead filling in strategically and stealing some red zone like last year. Overall though, plenty of fantasy points to be had from the NE backfield and Michel is the best RB on the roster. 

Edited by Fort4242

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I'm probably buying into Sony Michel 100% come draft time. He is a talented back, the Patriots have an obvious good offense and I seriously doubt they would spend a 1st round pick on an rotational RB. Hopefully people will be a little scared off because of the Patriots RB syndrome so he drops cause I want shares of Sony in all my leagues.

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Belichick understands capital and players value in relation to the cap. It's why the Patriots have been so dominant with so many moving roster pieces over an unprecedented length of time. That being said he recognizes the direction the NFL offense is going in which is exploiting the Running Back v Linebacker match up (see Kamara and the saints) Belichick exploited the same matchup first with the TE position. 

 

With that type of draft capital, the opportunity the patriots' offense allows, and Sony's talent his upside is undeniable. If fears of fumbling and RBBC push his ADP past the 6-7th round you gotta bet on his upside.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MilkSteakandjellybeans said:

Belichick understands capital and players value in relation to the cap. It's why the Patriots have been so dominant with so many moving roster pieces over an unprecedented length of time. That being said he recognizes the direction the NFL offense is going in which is exploiting the Running Back v Linebacker match up (see Kamara and the saints) Belichick exploited the same matchup first with the TE position. 

 

With that type of draft capital, the opportunity the patriots' offense allows, and Sony's talent his upside is undeniable. If fears of fumbling and RBBC push his ADP past the 6-7th round you gotta bet on his upside.

 

If he's there in the 5th you draft him without thinking about it.

 

Agree whole heartedly with the rest of your analysis.  League got taller and faster on defense to counteract WRs, so RB mismatches are coming in vogue.

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Yupp, and eventually as LBs get quicker and more athletic to match up with RBs (also smaller), I think the league will eventually transition back to power football and pounding the ball and emphasis on running games to counteract that.  

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6th round seems fine with me.   I dont think he gets a lot of touches right out of the gate- just my thinking that NE is patient and he has to earn trust/share.  Once he does get there, I think he easily outshines the other backs on the roster.   Its just going to be a patient ride, might take a few months.   

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6 minutes ago, GhostOfCap said:

Michel or McKinnon in dynasty?

 

Michel easily. McKinnon is ordinary.

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22 minutes ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

:ph34r:

If he pulls a Kareem Hunt you might not see him until 2019.

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4 hours ago, GhostOfCap said:

Michel or McKinnon in dynasty?

 

McKinnon. Elite athlete, top-15 RB last year (and top-10 the final 6 games of 2016 as well), and won't get benched the first time he fumbles. 

 

If you choose a NE RB high, you get what you deserve.

 

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Love the player. Definitely has the chance to transcend the restrictions of the offense. Probably the most talented back in NE since Martin, maybe since Dillon's first year.

 

That said, the Patriots aren't going to give him the ball based upon draft status or name, and James White has a role locked down as much as anyone in the league. Typically, you'll do okay just drafting whomever falls among the NE backs in the mix. Late flier on Burkhead seems reasonable, for instance.

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On ‎5‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 12:42 PM, GhostOfCap said:

Michel or McKinnon in dynasty?

I think Michel is the choice, but it has to be at the right value. Picking Michel means looking to the future, because I don't think Michel gets the desired workload until Belichick is gone. And I expect Belichick gone after the 2018 season.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

I think Michel is the choice, but it has to be at the right value. Picking Michel means looking to the future, because I don't think Michel gets the desired workload until Belichick is gone. And I expect Belichick gone after the 2018 season.

Belichick runs the Patriots' draft.  And Belichick picked Sony in the 1st round after losing a similar player, Dion Lewis, in free agency.  Why would we have to wait until Belichick is gone to see Michel on the field, toting the rock?

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If anything I think Michel's value is higher this year than it is in the future.  Brady and Bill may be gone soon.  Then who knows what the Pats look like.  Who knows if they even re-sign Michel after his rookie deal.  He could wind up on a new team.  Stock is super high now, but long term has more question marks.

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Michel & Chubb will be a lesson in knowing the guys in your room.  If your league has a Georgia fan in it or even SEC guys, you're going to have to reach for either running back.  They're likable, work hard, and explosive.  

 

We'll be seeing a lot of jazz hands the next several years.  

 

 

.

Edited by kidtwentytwo

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