tootallball

Sony Michel 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

I don't see how this team will morph into a Michel centric one this year, being it looks likely it maybe the last of the trio of Brady, Gronk, Edelman. I'd be shocked to see Brady not wanting to go out with an MVP caliber campaign. This is a very deep backfield with James White entrenched as the pass catcher and very trusted, Michel will be a tough guy to rely on. Even giving him the D Lewis role, Burkhead would need to be injured again, and Michel will need to earn big trust in a complex scheme. He's a long term Dynasty play for me.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, GhostOfCap said:

I feel like people are underselling Michel's upside in 2018. Let's all remember that New England ranked 11th in rush attempts last season 6th in rushing TD's. They lost coach's most reliable back who totaled over 200 touches and 9 TD's last season. This guy has legitimate 230 carry and 40 reception upside. I wouldn't put 1300 yards and double digit scores out of the question. His ADP is RB25 and I don't think there's a guy in the 18-24 range that I would rather have. 

 

Yes, but some of that usage has to be attributed to Burkhead's injuries.  In fact, 6 of Lewis's 9 TDs came in games where Burkhead was injured.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, The Invictus said:

I don't see how this team will morph into a Michel centric one this year, being it looks likely it maybe the last of the trio of Brady, Gronk, Edelman. I'd be shocked to see Brady not wanting to go out with an MVP caliber campaign.

 

Brady would rather go out with a SB than an MVP campaign.

 

It doesn't need to be Michel centric for him to put up huge numbers.  The offense scores a lot, and its running backs get more touchdowns than any other team over the last few years.  New Orleans took the New England model and put it on steroids in 2017 (literally, now that I think of Ingram), but the Patriots forged the path.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Brady would rather go out with a SB than an MVP campaign.

 

It doesn't need to be Michel centric for him to put up huge numbers.  The offense scores a lot, and its running backs get more touchdowns than any other team over the last few years.  New Orleans took the New England model and put it on steroids in 2017 (literally, now that I think of Ingram), but the Patriots forged the path.

I don't recall the last time any Pat's RB put up 'Huge Numbers' , maybe Corey Dillon? That was eons ago when it was a completely different offense. Coupled with a lesser Offensive Line not exactly built to run, and J White the pass down RB, this offense will run through Brady and the passing game as long as the key players are on the field. Maybe Michel will become this years Kamara, but I'd lay my money against it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, The Invictus said:

I don't recall the last time any Pat's RB put up 'Huge Numbers' , maybe Corey Dillon? That was eons ago when it was a completely different offense. Coupled with a lesser Offensive Line not exactly built to run, and J White the pass down RB, this offense will run through Brady and the passing game as long as the key players are on the field. Maybe Michel will become this years Kamara, but I'd lay my money against it.

Others are pointing out that the Patriots rushing numbers and TD's are quite high. Usually league-leading. But those numbers get spread around to 3-4 RB's. And Brady is always a threat to sneak TD's if they are inside the 1/2-yard line. The argument is Michel could end up seeing the bulks of those touches and TD's. Similar to how Blount scores a bundle of TD's a couple years ago.

 

I'll probably always be pessimistic towards the Patriots' backfield. Due to the unpredictability. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, devaster said:

Others are pointing out that the Patriots rushing numbers and TD's are quite high. Usually league-leading. But those numbers get spread around to 3-4 RB's. And Brady is always a threat to sneak TD's if they are inside the 1/2-yard line. The argument is Michel could end up seeing the bulks of those touches and TD's. Similar to how Blount scores a bundle of TD's a couple years ago.

 

I'll probably always be pessimistic towards the Patriots' backfield. Due to the unpredictability. 

I'm certainly not disputing the GL opportunities for the RB's in what will no doubt be a top offense. But key point you made is But those numbers get spread around to 3-4 RB's. It would be on par with the Mackinaw Peach and Aurora Borealis that a Rookie comes in this offense and not only takes lead but puts up weekly reliable Fantasy numbers.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, The Invictus said:

I'm certainly not disputing the GL opportunities for the RB's in what will no doubt be a top offense. But key point you made is But those numbers get spread around to 3-4 RB's. It would be on par with the Mackinaw Peach and Aurora Borealis that a Rookie comes in this offense and not only takes lead but puts up weekly reliable Fantasy numbers.

 

You are correct. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Invictus said:

I don't recall the last time any Pat's RB put up 'Huge Numbers'

 

Produced a fantasy RB1 in each of the last two seasons.  One with a huge TD total, the other with huge efficiency.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Invictus said:

 But those numbers get spread around to 3-4 RB's.

 

White will always have his role.  Sure.

 

Gilly got an audition last year.  Failed.  Rex took over.  Got hurt.  Lewis took over.  Ran with it.

 

Year before, it was all Blount, with White getting his 50 receptions that he gets every year.

 

Despite spreading it around, for whatever reason, they produce fantasy RB1s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

White will always have his role.  Sure.

 

Gilly got an audition last year.  Failed.  Rex took over.  Got hurt.  Lewis took over.  Ran with it.

 

Year before, it was all Blount, with White getting his 50 receptions that he gets every year.

 

Despite spreading it around, for whatever reason, they produce fantasy RB1s.

This. Pats offense can easily support an RB1 and possibly an RB2 on the same team.

 

Sony is the best RB they've had in a LONG time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Produced a fantasy RB1 in each of the last two seasons.  One with a huge TD total, the other with huge efficiency.

 

2017 ~ D Lewis   896/6 Rush  214/32/3 Rec... Total 209 Pts with Burkhead missing 6 games

 

2016 ~ L Blount 1161 /18  234 total

 

Both of these RB's brought a unique set of skills to the table, and Burkhead was either not there or injured.

 

So, if you think Michel will be a combination of the two as a Rookie at his current price... not for me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

White will always have his role.  Sure.

 

Gilly got an audition last year.  Failed.  Rex took over.  Got hurt.  Lewis took over.  Ran with it.

 

Year before, it was all Blount, with White getting his 50 receptions that he gets every year.

 

Despite spreading it around, for whatever reason, they produce fantasy RB1s.

 

Gronk was hurt most of the year Blount scored all those TDs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The Invictus said:

I'm certainly not disputing the GL opportunities for the RB's in what will no doubt be a top offense. But key point you made is But those numbers get spread around to 3-4 RB's. It would be on par with the Mackinaw Peach and Aurora Borealis that a Rookie comes in this offense and not only takes lead but puts up weekly reliable Fantasy numbers.

 

Who's the 4th RB? The 3rd RB is obviously James White but he doesnt get enough work to consider him a threat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still remember Blount being quite volatile despite scoring all those TD's. He was relegated to pretty much use in standard only. And 2016 had a ton of RB injuries and poor performances.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Who's the 4th RB? The 3rd RB is obviously James White but he doesnt get enough work to consider him a threat.

For me he's enough threat in the pass game to cap Michel's early potential. The biggest threat is Burkhead who has the closest all around skill set to Michel, though not as talented. Plus White is hugely trusted in pass protection and knowing this offense which is among the most complex. It wouldn't shock me at all to see either one of the GL short yardage Backs see action, Gillislee or Hill etc. We all know BB and if you're not 'Doing Your Job' exactly as it should be, you're watching.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Too many RBs in the kitchen. Then add Bilitricks to the equation and the RB usage changes depending on each game plan. Add in his fumble troubles and there are a number of red flags.  Is the upside there? For sure but he could be frustrating to own week to week depending on how he is used.

 

Right now I don't know if I can draft him with the questions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Right now I don't know if I can draft him with the questions.

He's a 4th rounder now, which is a steep price. If you can get him a couple rounds later (not gonna happen), I'm in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

He's a 4th rounder now, which is a steep price. If you can get him a couple rounds later (not gonna happen), I'm in.

Sometimes.

You gotta reach.

Go against the grain. 

IF ..he does what Dion did the second half of last yr, you look like a genius for going against the trend & what the "pros" in the industry say. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

He's a 4th rounder now, which is a steep price. If you can get him a couple rounds later (not gonna happen), I'm in.

Will have to see how preseason plays out.  If it looks like he will be the feature back then some of the questions will answer themselves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Will have to see how preseason plays out.  If it looks like he will be the feature back then some of the questions will answer themselves.

I don’t think you can make assumptions based on Sony’s usage in the preseason.  I suspect Sony will show skills, but disappoint in actual usage.  

 

Many people thought White was going to be the MAN after the Super Bowl heroics... didn’t happen.

 

I usually look at NE RB’s on the waiver wire for streaming, but this year I expect Sony will make Burkhead undervalued.

 

Sony is the riskiest of rookie RBs relative to ADP.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, The Invictus said:

For me he's enough threat in the pass game to cap Michel's early potential. The biggest threat is Burkhead who has the closest all around skill set to Michel, though not as talented. Plus White is hugely trusted in pass protection and knowing this offense which is among the most complex. It wouldn't shock me at all to see either one of the GL short yardage Backs see action, Gillislee or Hill etc. We all know BB and if you're not 'Doing Your Job' exactly as it should be, you're watching.

 

Gillislee probably gets cut. Even if Hill makes it, he'll be the one sitting out gamedays as the 4th RB. I get that a lot of people in fantasy treat the Patriots backfield like the plague, but there's no reason to make it sound worse by saying that the 4th RB is a threat. White will steal passing targets but he's a non-factor on the ground.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

Gillislee probably gets cut. Even if Hill makes it, he'll be the one sitting out gamedays as the 4th RB. I get that a lot of people in fantasy treat the Patriots backfield like the plague, but there's no reason to make it sound worse by saying that the 4th RB is a threat. White will steal passing targets but he's a non-factor on the ground.

Ok remove Gillislee. How many Receptions, TD's does Michel get with White, a Healthy Burkhead and all the other options like Gronk, Hogan, Edelman learning the most complex system in the NFL as a Rookie ? Blount barely broke a thousand yards without Burkhead, and Lewis didn't with him missing 6 games.

Edited by The Invictus
spelling

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, The Invictus said:

How many Receptions, TD's does Michel get with White, a Healthy Burkhead and all the other options like Gronk, Hogan, Edelman learning the most complex system in the NFL as a Rookie ?

 

110 RB Recs = 45 White, 35 Rex, 30 Michel

22 RB TDs = 12 Rex, 10 Michel, 2 White

 

These are in line with NE historical trends.  And if anything I expect RB usage to go up this year as Brady gets older, the WR corps gets worse, and they spend 2 first round picks on OT and RB.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you guys wanna avoid NE RB's and pretend like they haven't produced #1 and #2 RB's the last few years then fine. More for the rest of us

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Big Nate said:

Will have to see how preseason plays out.  If it looks like he will be the feature back then some of the questions will answer themselves.

 

Pats preseason is meaningless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...