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Sony Michel 2018 Outlook

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12 minutes ago, cordovahi said:

Either I start Richard tonight or I wait and see if Sony is going to play.  Hmm

 

A gambling man would wait ;-) 

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14 minutes ago, cordovahi said:

Either I start Richard tonight or I wait and see if Sony is going to play.  Hmm

I'd drop Richard and pick up Jamaal Williams or Duke Johnson (if they are available) to see how the Sony situation progresses. 

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1 hour ago, FitzMagic said:

When Sony had his first big game in Week 4 through Week 6 his numbers trended up, while James White in those same weeks declined in fantasy points. Since Sony has been out his numbers have shot back up. Bolster? That's a stretch.

 

The stats also say that White was averaging 14 points until Michel started in his first big game in Week 4 - where White had his highest point total of the season.

 

So, there is a number of ways to look at this.  It is more game flow and script.  If the Pats are 3rd and 4 from the 10 yard line - we are going to see a White TD.  If the Pats are 2nd and GL from the 2 yard line, we are going to see a Michel TD.  The correlation is not that Michel ultimately eats into White's value or vice versa.  Hence why I respectfully disagree with your original statement.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

The stats also say that White was averaging 14 points until Michel started in his first big game in Week 4 - where White had his highest point total of the season.

 

So, there is a number of ways to look at this.  It is more game flow and script.  If the Pats are 3rd and 4 from the 10 yard line - we are going to see a White TD.  If the Pats are 2nd and GL from the 2 yard line, we are going to see a Michel TD.  The correlation is not that Michel ultimately eats into White's value or vice versa.  Hence why I respectfully disagree with your original statement.

 

 

Agreed with this. 

 

1st and 10: Mostly Michel

2nd and long: Mostly White

2nd and short-mid: A lot of Michel

3rd and anything but short: All White

 

At least from the games I've seen.

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2 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

The stats also say that White was averaging 14 points until Michel started in his first big game in Week 4 - where White had his highest point total of the season.

 

So, there is a number of ways to look at this.  It is more game flow and script.  If the Pats are 3rd and 4 from the 10 yard line - we are going to see a White TD.  If the Pats are 2nd and GL from the 2 yard line, we are going to see a Michel TD.  The correlation is not that Michel ultimately eats into White's value or vice versa.  Hence why I respectfully disagree with your original statement.

 

 

 

Not sure what I said that was disagreeable. I said if Sony is getting carries that it affects White. I mean it isn't like I'm making this up.

 

Look at targets/touches:

 

Games with Sony

Lions: Sony 17/White 7

Dolphins: Sony 25/White 10

Colts: Sony 19/White 16

Chiefs: Sony 25/White 13

 

Games without Sony

Bears: White 21

Bills: White 21

 

Edited by FitzMagic
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14 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

Not sure what I said that was disagreeable. I said if Sony is getting carries that it affects White. I mean it isn't like I'm making this up.

 

Look at targets/touches:

 

Games with Sony

Lions: Sony 17/White 7

Dolphins: Sony 25/White 10

Colts: Sony 19/White 16

Chiefs: Sony 25/White 13

 

Games without Sony

Bears: White 21

Bills: White 21

 

Games with Burkhead

Texans: Burkhead 21 White 14

Jags: Burkhead/Michel 18 White 12

 

Added the two games with Burkhead. So, let's take the Miami game as an example. He can clearly get 25-30 points with or without Sony in the lineup. It is a lot less likely though if the Pats have Michel in the backfield too. He'll (White) typically be in that 14-25 range instead of the 25-30. So, I like my chances of him hitting his floor when Sony plays than without Sony playing. That's all I said.

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2 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

The stats also say that White was averaging 14 points until Michel started in his first big game in Week 4 - where White had his highest point total of the season.

 

So, there is a number of ways to look at this.  It is more game flow and script.  If the Pats are 3rd and 4 from the 10 yard line - we are going to see a White TD.  If the Pats are 2nd and GL from the 2 yard line, we are going to see a Michel TD.  The correlation is not that Michel ultimately eats into White's value or vice versa.  Hence why I respectfully disagree with your original statement.

 

 

 

The facts support what your saying.  Fizmagic is talking touches  , im talking actual production like you are:

 

 

Whites Points with Sony  Full Point  PPR( ESPN Scoring)  -  Weeks 4-6  - 31, 23, 14

Sony Points with White  Full Point  PPR( ESPN Scoring)  -  Weeks 4-6 -  17, 18, 22

 

White outscored him in 2 of the 3 weeks they played full games together

 

 

Looks like White does fine with Sony there - clearly he does better with no comp like any back would but I think he'll be fine for 15-20 with an upside for 25-30 like he is every week( Sony or No Sony).

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2 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

The facts support what your saying.  Fizmagic is talking touches  , im talking actual production like you are:

 

 

Whites Points with Sony  Full Point  PPR( ESPN Scoring)  -  Weeks 4-6  - 31, 23, 14

Sony Points with White  Full Point  PPR( ESPN Scoring)  -  Weeks 4-6 -  17, 18, 22

 

White outscored him in 2 of the 3 weeks they played full games together

 

 

Looks like White does fine with Sony there - clearly he does better with no comp like any back would but I think he'll be fine for 15-20 with an upside for 25-30 like he is every week( Sony or No Sony).

His capability of only damaging me with 14 points rather than 25-30 points is higher with Sony in the lineup. Not sure how that got lost in translation. I never said he can't get those points with or without Sony. I said his chances are far less. I don't care about Sony's points with White. I said I may not play Sony. If I do that's even better because it offsets some points that White does score. Regardless if I play him or not, I hope he plays for the simple fact that the odds of him whopping 30 on me this week are greatly reduced.

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On 10/31/2018 at 2:17 PM, FitzMagic said:

Hopefully he plays because James White is my opponent. I likely won't start Sony, but I'd like White to be affected.

This is what I initially said. I'm not really sure how it turned into this big debate. Sony playing is better than Sony not playing. If Sony is not playing I know he's easily going to get about 30 points. His road to that number is not as easy if Sony is playing.

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I think I'm just going to play it safe and roll with Doug Martin..he's really my only viable player to start with a lot of my bench on byes. I don't like it one bit, but I can't risk it.

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I wouldn't play Sony - I'd wait until it's been verified that he's good to go (seeing him on the field).

For example, if he plays a few plays (or more) this weekend without any setbacks, then feel free to give him a try the following week.

Sure, you run the risk of him playing the entire game and scoring 100 yards and 2 TD's...but I just don't see it.

I don't think he'll play much, and if he does, I doubt he puts up big numbers.

We shall see.

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7 minutes ago, Stratocasters said:

I wouldn't play Sony - I'd wait until it's been verified that he's good to go (seeing him on the field).

For example, if he plays a few plays (or more) this weekend without any setbacks, then feel free to give him a try the following week.

Sure, you run the risk of him playing the entire game and scoring 100 yards and 2 TD's...but I just don't see it.

I don't think he'll play much, and if he does, I doubt he puts up big numbers.

We shall see.

 

Couldn't disagree more with the idea that his usage will be affected if he's active. If he's healthy enough to play he will resume his normal workload; if he's not healthy he won't play. If his health is such that he's at a significant risk of getting reinjured to the point that they have to limit him they are much more likely to opt to not play him rather than play him sparingly. Why rush a bum RB onto the field (who's likely less effective since they are, ya know, injured) and exacerbate the chance that he incurs a longer term injury? That's not how the NFL and especially smart teams like the Pats operate. If he's active my bet is that we see the same Sony. 

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1 hour ago, AnchorDown said:

 

Couldn't disagree more with the idea that his usage will be affected if he's active. If he's healthy enough to play he will resume his normal workload; if he's not healthy he won't play. If his health is such that he's at a significant risk of getting reinjured to the point that they have to limit him they are much more likely to opt to not play him rather than play him sparingly. Why rush a bum RB onto the field (who's likely less effective since they are, ya know, injured) and exacerbate the chance that he incurs a longer term injury? That's not how the NFL and especially smart teams like the Pats operate. If he's active my bet is that we see the same Sony. 

 

I agree that the Pats aren't likely to limit him if he's healthy enough to play. But with Sony being in the SNF game, I simply can't wait for a game time decision. If he was in the early game, it'd be a lot easier. But unless he exits the Friday practice with a full practice and not a questionable tag, I think most of us can't risk it.

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14 hours ago, FitzMagic said:

This is what I initially said. I'm not really sure how it turned into this big debate. Sony playing is better than Sony not playing. If Sony is not playing I know he's easily going to get about 30 points. His road to that number is not as easy if Sony is playing.

 

Yet the only time he reached 30 points is with Michel in. 

 

Look at it this way, White isn't tallying up points on the ground.  Michel is.  Michel isn't tallying up points through the air.  White is.  It really is all game dependent.

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16 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Yet the only time he reached 30 points is with Michel in. 

 

Look at it this way, White isn't tallying up points on the ground.  Michel is.  Michel isn't tallying up points through the air.  White is.  It really is all game dependent.

I’m a White owner and not Michel and this is 100% correct. The only thing that changes is the 1 yard plunge White had this past week. That would’ve definitely went to Michel. I think White had what 7 carries for 15 yards? He usually gets between 5-7 carries even with Michel in there anyway. Whites points are mostly through the air.

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14 hours ago, AnchorDown said:

 

Couldn't disagree more with the idea that his usage will be affected if he's active. If he's healthy enough to play he will resume his normal workload; if he's not healthy he won't play. If his health is such that he's at a significant risk of getting reinjured to the point that they have to limit him they are much more likely to opt to not play him rather than play him sparingly. Why rush a bum RB onto the field (who's likely less effective since they are, ya know, injured) and exacerbate the chance that he incurs a longer term injury? That's not how the NFL and especially smart teams like the Pats operate. If he's active my bet is that we see the same Sony. 

 

You make a good point.

But the Pats are short on RB talent. They might decide to use White, give him a breather with some plays for Sony as needed...maybe use him in goal line situations.

I don't know...like I said - "we shall see".

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Where are we going with this (Sony & White) touches/targets fantasy points? 

 

They both are dynamite and owning either or both is fantastic 

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1 hour ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Yet the only time he reached 30 points is with Michel in. 

 

Look at it this way, White isn't tallying up points on the ground.  Michel is.  Michel isn't tallying up points through the air.  White is.  It really is all game dependent.

Which is usually defined as an aberration. Do you have any supporting evidence to say it was not an aberration and indeed the norm when his targets are reduced? Typically the more targets increase chances of more scoring. But you know, I'm only using logic here and not just a one game sample to base my conclusion on. The chances of him having a 30 point game are greatly reduced when Sony is part of the game plan. I'm not saying it can't happen because it has happened. But that was one game. You are just assuming that the chances of it happening are high just because he did it in one game this year. That's a pretty ridiculous assumption.

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1 hour ago, oresteszero said:

Will the PlayStation be playing this weekend?

its the Pats man we wont know until late Sunday.

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

Where are we going with this (Sony & White) touches/targets fantasy points? 

 

They both are dynamite and owning either or both is fantastic 

The guy is saying just because White had one 30-point game with Sony in this season that Sony has no effect on White. It's a big thing all because I said I prefer Sony to play to have an affect on White's targets and touches, since I face him this week. Apparently I am ridiculous for thinking this because I used more than one game to come to my conclusion. Apparently one game means White will score 30 regardless of the game plan and Sony's involvement. Is it possible he can score 30 with Sony playing, yes, because he's done it. Is it more likely? No. And that was my only point. His chances are far greater without Sony in there at all. 30 and 25 without Sony in there these last two games supports that. 

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1 hour ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Yet the only time he reached 30 points is with Michel in. 

 

Look at it this way, White isn't tallying up points on the ground.  Michel is.  Michel isn't tallying up points through the air.  White is.  It really is all game dependent.

Splitting hairs because 29.7 fantasy points is basically 30.

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Quick Question.  We all know that BB prefers his RB's to be able to catch, run and block.  Is it logical to think at some point, Michel will begin taking up some more targets?  As a Patriots Fan, I find it hard to believe in White long term because BB always seems to move away from him towards the end of the season.

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2 minutes ago, dams513 said:

Quick Question.  We all know that BB prefers his RB's to be able to catch, run and block.  Is it logical to think at some point, Michel will begin taking up some more targets?  As a Patriots Fan, I find it hard to believe in White long term because BB always seems to move away from him towards the end of the season.

I love michel game but no way they take white off the field he’s the best pass catching back in the league 

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