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Sony Michel 2018 Outlook

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37 minutes ago, dams513 said:

Quick Question.  We all know that BB prefers his RB's to be able to catch, run and block.  Is it logical to think at some point, Michel will begin taking up some more targets?  As a Patriots Fan, I find it hard to believe in White long term because BB always seems to move away from him towards the end of the season.

 

The Pats have never played James White this much, probably thinking he wouldn't hold up with this kind of load.  That's why Sony was drafted in the first round, to be that complete back -- they could have saved some draft capital and gotten pure runners later in the draft, if that's what they wanted.  It's just that the injuries and lack of practice time in the preseason have kept that from happening.  It might not be this year or maybe start more after their bye, but his role in the passing game will grow eventually.  BB is a smart guy -- he doens't want defenses to be tipped off that it will be running play when Sony is in the game.  Your comment about what happens at the end of each season with White, is also true of their whole passing attack in general -- even Brady also seems to cool off at the end of the regular season.  When its winter and bitter cold in Boston, I can see why that would be the case. 

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1 hour ago, dams513 said:

Quick Question.  We all know that BB prefers his RB's to be able to catch, run and block.  Is it logical to think at some point, Michel will begin taking up some more targets?  As a Patriots Fan, I find it hard to believe in White long term because BB always seems to move away from him towards the end of the season.

 

I do think Michel will get more targets. At Georgia he wasn't *heavily* used as a receiver, but 2015/16 he got about 2 rec/game and 2017 he dropped to about 1 rec/game, with a career average of 9.7 yards/rec. So it's not something that he can't do. And his reception totals were significantly higher than Nick Chubb, so it's clear that WHEN they wanted to use a back in the receiving game, they chose Sony over Chubb. 

 

So yes, I think he'll start to get worked in a bit. But I see it as being more likely that he sees just enough targets to force the defense to defend him as a receiver. It's clear that White is the primary pass-catching back, and I doubt NE will change.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, bwarbiany said:

 

I do think Michel will get more targets. At Georgia he wasn't *heavily* used as a receiver, but 2015/16 he got about 2 rec/game and 2017 he dropped to about 1 rec/game, with a career average of 9.7 yards/rec. So it's not something that he can't do. And his reception totals were significantly higher than Nick Chubb, so it's clear that WHEN they wanted to use a back in the receiving game, they chose Sony over Chubb. 

 

So yes, I think he'll start to get worked in a bit. But I see it as being more likely that he sees just enough targets to force the defense to defend him as a receiver. It's clear that White is the primary pass-catching back, and I doubt NE will change.

 

 

 

I'm hesitant to extrapolate too much from college usage but yeah Sony has the ability as a pass catcher.  Alvin Kamara wasn't heavily featured at Tennesee and it took going to the Saints for his receiving potential to be unleashed -- I think that's part of the reason Butch Davis got fired as the HC there.  Even if Sony gets just a few receptions a game that can be a significant boost, because when he's got the ball in the open field, he's explosive.  I would think the plan is to get him to the Dion Lewis level in terms of targets, eventually.  Probably won't happen this year, but down the road.  

Edited by rocket

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Stefania Bell (spelling) on NFL Live believes it will still be another week or 2 before we see Sony for what it is worth.

 

She also thinks Gronks may sit... Mrs. Doom and Gloom.

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1 minute ago, Jubanton said:

Stefania Bell (spelling) on NFL Live believes it will still be another week or 2 before we see Sony for what it is worth.

 

She also thinks Gronks may sit... Mrs. Doom and Gloom.

She's a wise woman.  Pats don't need this win, but they do need to get all their guys healthy for the stretch run.

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Bet he's a game time decision. 

 

Sunday night game.

 

Don't own him, but if I did, no way I'd start him.

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7 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

https://thespun.com/news/injury-update-for-patriots-running-back-sony-michel

 

Love this guy, he's a soldier. "I'll do anything for these guys."

 

Nice interview.... but it does sound like we are going to be waiting one more week though till her is closer to 100, IMO.

 

Hopefully we all are better off ROS with him truly healthy.

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3 hours ago, rocket said:

 

The Pats have never played James White this much, probably thinking he wouldn't hold up with this kind of load.  That's why Sony was drafted in the first round, to be that complete back -- they could have saved some draft capital and gotten pure runners later in the draft, if that's what they wanted.  It's just that the injuries and lack of practice time in the preseason have kept that from happening.  It might not be this year or maybe start more after their bye, but his role in the passing game will grow eventually.  BB is a smart guy -- he doens't want defenses to be tipped off that it will be running play when Sony is in the game.  Your comment about what happens at the end of each season with White, is also true of their whole passing attack in general -- even Brady also seems to cool off at the end of the regular season.  When its winter and bitter cold in Boston, I can see why that would be the case. 

 

 

You ou obviously do not follow the Patriots. They do NOT use one back, they use multiple. They did not draft Sony to be an every down back. They liked his skill set and it fits into what they are doing. James White will have his specific role, as Sony will have his own.  Same goes for any other RB that is on their roster at any given moment. Remember Jonas Gray?

 

Sony and White will both be provided opportunity to produce, each game they play. Game flow and scheme will dictate percentage splits as the game goes. Both are capable of putting up rb1 numbers together any given week. 

 

BB will not use 1 main back. Injury to that main back sinks a lot of teams, because their backups aren’t broken in and game ready. BB keeps his positional players fluid, so they are interchangeable for injuries/suspensions. 

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With C Patterson on the injury report with a neck injury, And how they used him in the running game last game,. Doesn't that give Sony a better chance at playing this week?

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3 minutes ago, cordovahi said:

With C Patterson on the injury report with a neck injury, And how they used him in the running game last game,. Doesn't that give Sony a better chance at playing this week?

Not at all 

 

Cordell will suit up before Sony 

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1 hour ago, Raynestorm said:

 

 

You ou obviously do not follow the Patriots. They do NOT use one back, they use multiple. They did not draft Sony to be an every down back. They liked his skill set and it fits into what they are doing. James White will have his specific role, as Sony will have his own.  Same goes for any other RB that is on their roster at any given moment. Remember Jonas Gray?

 

Sony and White will both be provided opportunity to produce, each game they play. Game flow and scheme will dictate percentage splits as the game goes. Both are capable of putting up rb1 numbers together any given week. 

 

BB will not use 1 main back. Injury to that main back sinks a lot of teams, because their backups aren’t broken in and game ready. BB keeps his positional players fluid, so they are interchangeable for injuries/suspensions. 

 

I do follow the Patriots, and even invoked Jonas Gray earlier in this thread (reproduced below), so I found your response funny.   My response was to answer the question:  Will Sony get more targets?  My answer simply is -- yes.  I even said "his role in the passing game will grow eventually" so there's no need to be rude.  I never said Sony would be playing every down or that James White wouldn't have a role.  James White is on pace for a career year.  The Hoodie has said many times Sony has "a long way to go".  I would think that includes growing in the passing game and not just running the ball.  From  https://nesn.com/2018/10/bill-belichick-continues-to-pump-the-brakes-on-sony-michels-production/ 

 

  image.png.5d707a9f552b739282d737518b8b403c.png

He's got a long way to go if they are to meet the "big plans they have for him."  http://www.nfl.com/videos/good-morning-football/0ap3000000934888/Kyle-Brandt-Patriots-have-big-plans-for-Sony-Michel-next-season.

BB was an economics major so he knows the opportunity cost of drafting a running back in the first round, when the Pats could have gotten so many other talented guys who could contribute this year.  A lost training camp and preseason have hampered those plans, so we'll just have to see how his role evolves.  You think Sony and White can both be RB1s for the ROS?  In PPR I would agree but think that's unlikely in standard -- that's really hard to do.  Kamara and Ingram did it last year but in standard how often has that even happened?  I'm of the opinion that its more a zero-sum game.  An increased share for one leads to a decreased share for the other.  We saw that this past week, when the Pats could not run the ball effectively, so they relied instead on the short passing game against Buffalo.            

 

 

This is what I posted some days ago, so we are on the same page about a lot of things. 

On 10/19/2018 at 7:46 PM, rocket said:

  Taking a step back to address previous comments, the reason Pat's RB's have been so unreliable in fantasy is you never knew how they were going to be used.  Like a few years ago, when Jonas Gray blew up for 200 yards and 4 TDs and then got cut later that season.  You never knew, because they were never enamored with any one of them, they always used them as to how they best fit the gameplan -- and the gameplan would change weekly based on the opponent.   Now its down to two main guys after all the injuries, so we pretty much know what to expect (at least we think we do).  Plus the Pat's have run the ball a lot near the goal line over the years and Sony is getting most of those carries so he's got a lot of TD upside each week.  I wouldn't worry too much about him being TD reliant, his usage down at the goal line is going to be pretty consistent.  

 

We know what to expect when both Sony and James White are in the gamplane.  With Sony missing, you get Cordarrelle Patterson:D at running back.

Edited by rocket
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52 minutes ago, rocket said:

 

I do follow the Patriots, and even invoked Jonas Gray earlier in this thread (reproduced below), so I found your response funny.   My response was to answer the question:  Will Sony get more targets?  My answer simply is -- yes.  I even said "his role in the passing game will grow eventually" so there's no need to be rude.  I never said Sony would be playing every down or that James White wouldn't have a role.  James White is on pace for a career year.  The Hoodie has said many times Sony has "a long way to go".  I would think that includes growing in the passing game and not just running the ball.  From  https://nesn.com/2018/10/bill-belichick-continues-to-pump-the-brakes-on-sony-michels-production/ 

 

  image.png.5d707a9f552b739282d737518b8b403c.png

He's got a long way to go if they are to meet the "big plans they have for him."  http://www.nfl.com/videos/good-morning-football/0ap3000000934888/Kyle-Brandt-Patriots-have-big-plans-for-Sony-Michel-next-season.

BB was an economics major so he knows the opportunity cost of drafting a running back in the first round, when the Pats could have gotten so many other talented guys who could contribute this year.  A lost training camp and preseason have hampered those plans, so we'll just have to see how his role evolves.  You think Sony and White can both be RB1s for the ROS?  In PPR I would agree but think that's unlikely in standard -- that's really hard to do.  Kamara and Ingram did it last year but in standard how often has that even happened?  I'm of the opinion that its more a zero-sum game.  An increased share for one leads to a decreased share for the other.  We saw that this past week, when the Pats could not run the ball effectively, so they relied instead on the short passing game against Buffalo.            

 

 

This is what I posted some days ago, so we are on the same page about a lot of things. 

 

We know what to expect when both Sony and James White are in the gamplane.  With Sony missing, you get Cordarrelle Patterson:D at running back.

 

Nice analysis. You sound a lot like one of my best buds I've known since childhood. He loves the "zero-sum game" reference and speaks just like you. I'd highly doubt it's him, but did you happen to grow up in LA and live in Chitown now? 

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I have him but I am keeping him on the bench and instead starting Kerryon Johnson . My fear is he is not fully healthy and I just want to avoid another rush where he falls down fumbles in pain again. I am scared until I see him back playing full game not showing any effects of his injury. The way he exit that game few weeks back was just scary.

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Sony Michel can catch passes and will see marginally more action in that regard when he's healthy and playing.

 

James White deserves lots of credit for honing his craft and getting much better as a receiver through five NFL seasons. In college, he was mostly meh as a pass-catcher. His senior season was impressive though, cause he had 39 receptions for 300 yards and two scores. If you look at Michel, his sophomore season was comparable with a 26/270/3 line. 

 

If Michel was asked to he could probably put up some big receiving lines in NE. Take a look back at 2015 for instance. Dion Lewis played exceptionally to start the year. He had 36 catches through 7.5 games before he tore his ACL. White's had an unshakeable grip on the pass-catching role from that moment on. If White were to get hurt this season Michel would step into a workhorse role and average 22-25 in PPR. Assuming both backs are healthy, Michel should settle in at about two receptions a game. Similar to Lewis' 2017 role in New England.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Gootz said:

 

Nice analysis. You sound a lot like one of my best buds I've known since childhood. He loves the "zero-sum game" reference and speaks just like you. I'd highly doubt it's him, but did you happen to grow up in LA and live in Chitown now? 

No, I'm an East coaster.  I've only visited LA.  Funny thing is I don't even use "zero-sum" in day to day language.  I've just spent too many years reading John Hollinger on ESPN and stuff like  https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/football/https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/football/  I also read a lot of football analysis, and that kind of thinking sinks in by osmosis.

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I’m going to need this situation clarified beyond a reasonable doubt by Sunday morning, so...someone go head and get that done, k?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Come on. It’s gonna suck compared to what we’ve come to expect. 10-12 carries for 50 and 1 and no reinjury would be GLORIOUS imo.

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From https://weei.radio.com/blogs/ryan-hannable/sony-michel-says-injured-knee-feels-pretty-good-seems-hopeful-play-vs-packers

 

 

"Sony Michel says injured knee feels 'pretty good,' seems hopeful to play vs. Packers

FOXBORO -- It appears the Patriots will be getting running back Sony Michel back faster than it seemed.

When the rookie suffered a knee injury against the Bears, it seemed like it had the potential to be season-ending, but Michel was back at practice last Saturday and after missing the game last week against the Bills, was a limited participant in every practice this week.

“I feel pretty good," he said Friday. "Just been working hard and trying to get back on the field.”

The Georgia product said he didn't really think about much at the time of the injury.

“I was just worrying about the moment," he said. "I wasn’t really too concerned about the future because I didn’t know what happened. Me, I was just focused on getting off the field and trying to feel better.”

Michel has turned into a very valuable piece to the offense, as after a sluggish start he has 95 carries for 422 yards and four touchdowns.

Given the fact he spoke Friday, it seems like he has a good chance to play Sunday night against the Packers, but he wouldn't say for sure.

“It all depends on coach and his decision, whatever that is,” he said.

Added Michel: “If it was up to me, for these teammates I would do whatever it takes. If I had one leg I would be out there trying to fight for these guys. I am around a great group of guys so I would do anything for these guys.” "

 

 

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Uh oh...

 

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports "there's concern" Sony Michel (questionable, knee) won't be able to return this week.

The Patriots will test out Michel in pre-game warmups, but this throws shade on his status. Michel had been trending toward playing after practicing on a limited basis all week. Owners need to have backup plans in place with New England playing on Sunday night. The Patriots would go with a committee of Cordarrelle Patterson (questionable, neck) and James White if Michel sits.
 
 
Nov 4 - 9:30 AM

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