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Sony Michel 2018 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

fixed for troof.  

 

For the most part yeah. Feel like it is x2 for the Pats though.

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8 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

For the most part yeah. Feel like it is x2 for the Pats though.

 

yeah, Hoodie adds a whole extra dynamic to everything, i s'pose :D 

 

where for art thou Zach Sudfeld/D.J. Foster?

 

:unsure:

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

110 RB Recs = 45 White, 35 Rex, 30 Michel

22 RB TDs = 12 Rex, 10 Michel, 2 White

 

These are in line with NE historical trends.  And if anything I expect RB usage to go up this year as Brady gets older, the WR corps gets worse, and they spend 2 first round picks on OT and RB.

Those are some pretty Rosey Glasses to look through... Then you're calling for an Elliot, Hunt, Gurley and Kamara company debut . As I said, if you want to bet he's the next, maybe you and he will surprise me. I'd say Joe Mixon numbers would be be about right on the upside, 625/4  30/290 unless injuries decimate them.

Edited by The Invictus
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52 minutes ago, TPowell said:

If you guys wanna avoid NE RB's and pretend like they haven't produced #1 and #2 RB's the last few years then fine. More for the rest of us

The production isn't the problem here. It is guessing who to draft.  Then just when you think you have the correct NE RB the coaches change the plan after a few games.

 

If it was as easy as you say it would be clear who between all three RBs will be the guy to own.  Then to complicate matters it might also depend if you play Standard or PPR.

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5 minutes ago, The Invictus said:

Those are some pretty Rosey Glasses to look through... 

 

They're not at all. 

 

Patriots RBs average 21 TDs over the last 5 years, with no fewer than 16.

 

They've eclipsed 130 targets each of the last 3 years, averaging 150.

 

Do you expect Jeremy Hill to get 8 touchdowns this year or something???

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5 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

The production isn't the problem here. It is guessing who to draft.

 

Is it really that hard to see Rex and Michel are both going to be good this year?

 

Is Jeremy Hill really that scary?

 

James White gets 40 carries and 50 recs a year.  He is what he is.

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2 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

They're not at all. 

 

Patriots RBs average 21 TDs over the last 5 years, with no fewer than 16.

 

They've eclipsed 130 targets each of the last 3 years, averaging 150.

 

Do you expect Jeremy Hill to get 8 touchdowns this year or something???

No, I don't expect a Rookie to lead the Patriots Backfield in production when they are immersed in talent offensively. Considering Rookie RB's in the BB era never have, regardless of where they have been drafted.

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Just now, Lord_Varys said:

 

Is it really that hard to see Rex and Michel are both going to be good this year?

 

Is Jeremy Hill really that scary?

 

James White gets 40 carries and 50 recs a year.  He is what he is.

Hill doesn't worry me. White will have 1 or 2 games this year where he goes off due to game plan.  That will suck if you own one of the other two backs, even worse if its the playoffs.

 

But I could see a time share between Burkhead and Michel and people losing their mind each week debating who to start.  I'm not sure I want that headache.  I will be honest though I'm in this thread to learn more and get an idea of what people are thinking.  I'd love to own the "right" NE RB I just don't know who it will be.

 

In one of my big keeper leagues I could be in a position to draft Michel in our "first" round once the keepers are selected.  I need to decided if this is something worth investing in.

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1 minute ago, Big Nate said:

Hill doesn't worry me. White will have 1 or 2 games this year where he goes off due to game plan.  That will suck if you own one of the other two backs, even worse if its the playoffs.

 

But I could see a time share between Burkhead and Michel and people losing their mind each week debating who to start.  I'm not sure I want that headache.  I will be honest though I'm in this thread to learn more and get an idea of what people are thinking.  I'd love to own the "right" NE RB I just don't know who it will be.

 

In one of my big keeper leagues I could be in a position to draft Michel in our "first" round once the keepers are selected.  I need to decided if this is something worth investing in.

Value for price, it's Burkhead hands down. He'll miss some time of course but look at the price of your investment. Touch for Touch he was one of the most productive RB's in the game. Long term, keeper Dyno,  I like Michel not for his 2018 redraft price.

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11 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Sony in 4

Rex 7, 8

Good to go

 

Terrible plan.

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If Sony fixes his fumbling problems, his talent gets him on the field more than Burkehead as the season progresses. That's the only thing holding him back because he was a very good pass blocker coming out of college already. 

 

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Camp opens for PlayStation today. Deal signed.

Kids electric.

Watch that adp climb.

Sheep underestimate. 

 

Edited by Whitecloud0101

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23 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Camp opens for PlayStation today. Deal signed.

Kids electric.

Watch that adp climb.

Sheep underestimate. 

 

Good call earlier on rostering the Michel and Burkhead combo.

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The highest RB selected by Pats since 2006. I’m not concerned about the New England RBBC moreso concerned about him working on his fumbling issues. I’ve always seen them running it that way because they didn’t have an all around 3 down back to trust all game. 

 

That 4th round price tag is steep but he has the potential to outplay his ADP. 

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Give me Sony and Burkhead both were their ADP's are and I'll take it. (assuming Sony is still in the 5th)

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16 minutes ago, TPowell said:

Give me Sony and Burkhead both were their ADP's are and I'll take it. (assuming Sony is still in the 5th)

I don't want anything to do with that approach. If I had to choose one or the other each week I know I'd pick the wrong player more often than not.  I love Michel the player and I think he can get over his fumblitis. It's hard to love any NE RB's but Steven Ridley helped me in my way to a championship in 2012.  It was his sophomore season and out up 1263/12.  Only 50 receiving yards.  I don't expect those numbers for Sony and I think he has a pretty low floor.  IMO Sony the athlete is worth a gamble.  I've got Sony ranked early 4th and as my 20 RB overall because I think that's where his upside is worth a bit if a gamble.  If his talent translates to the NFL, which I think it will, it's going to be difficult to take him off the field. I think his upside is that he could be a top 10 RB if he gets the opportunity he needs.  There's certainly a chance he comes nowhere near that, but hopefully a fourth round pick doesn't kill my season.  I'm targeting him but not going to over pay.

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7 minutes ago, bam327 said:

I don't want anything to do with that approach. If I had to choose one or the other each week I know I'd pick the wrong player more often than not.  I love Michel the player and I think he can get over his fumblitis. It's hard to love any NE RB's but Steven Ridley helped me in my way to a championship in 2012.  It was his sophomore season and out up 1263/12.  Only 50 receiving yards.  I don't expect those numbers for Sony and I think he has a pretty low floor.  IMO Sony the athlete is worth a gamble.  I've got Sony ranked early 4th and as my 20 RB overall because I think that's where his upside is worth a bit if a gamble.  If his talent translates to the NFL, which I think it will, it's going to be difficult to take him off the field. I think his upside is that he could be a top 10 RB if he gets the opportunity he needs.  There's certainly a chance he comes nowhere near that, but hopefully a fourth round pick doesn't kill my season.  I'm targeting him but not going to over pay.

 

Who says you have to choose? I had Kamara + Ingram in one league last season and Freeman/Coleman in another (Murray/Henry was another option). If you think they can be a power pair like that, you don't need to choose, and you can simply run both, knowing you will get good value.

Mind you, I don't think they can be at that level together.

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4 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Who says you have to choose? I had Kamara + Ingram in one league last season and Freeman/Coleman in another (Murray/Henry was another option). If you think they can be a power pair like that, you don't need to choose, and you can simply run both, knowing you will get good value.

Mind you, I don't think they can be at that level together.

I don't necessarily like Burkhead with Sony in town. If you like both of them and think it could be that kind of duo then it makes sense to take both as starters.  

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11 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Camp opens for PlayStation today. Deal signed.

Kids electric.

Watch that adp climb.

Sheep underestimate. 

 

Nice Sniffing Glueku :)

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Ya'll act like Belichick just picks the next week's starter based on who sits closer to the front of the room during film study or something random.

 

It's not a weekly roulette.  He finds a guy and goes with him until another player outplays him (or he gets hurt).  If you pay any attention you too can see who's looking good, who's starting to get more touches, and react accordingly.  It's not easy, but it wouldn't be worth it if it was, would it?

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22 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Ya'll act like Belichick just picks the next week's starter based on who sits closer to the front of the room during film study or something random.

 

It's not a weekly roulette.  He finds a guy and goes with him until another player outplays him (or he gets hurt).  If you pay any attention you too can see who's looking good, who's starting to get more touches, and react accordingly.  It's not easy, but it wouldn't be worth it if it was, would it?

There is some truth to this and then there is Jonas Gray. Remember him, the guy who ran the ball 37 times for 201, was on the SI cover that week? Missed or late for a meeting a few days later, never seen from again. I'm using an extreme example somewhat, but there is valid reason for trepidation. That being said I have been acquiring Michel in my Dynasty teams.

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Benching Jonas Gray was the ultimate Hoodie move.  I'll never forget that.  Thanks for the memories.

 

But Gray was end-of-the-roster fodder.  Michel is a first round pick.  Kid's gonna get run, although maybe not much during the first few games.  Unless he fumbles.

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