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Sony Michel 2018 Outlook


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On 7/19/2018 at 7:51 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

110 RB Recs = 45 White, 35 Rex, 30 Michel

22 RB TDs = 12 Rex, 10 Michel, 2 White

 

These are in line with NE historical trends.  And if anything I expect RB usage to go up this year as Brady gets older, the WR corps gets worse, and they spend 2 first round picks on OT and RB.

When was the last time that the Pats had two RBs break double digit TDs??

 

Ever?

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On 7/19/2018 at 9:56 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

They're not at all. 

 

Patriots RBs average 21 TDs over the last 5 years, with no fewer than 16.

 

They've eclipsed 130 targets each of the last 3 years, averaging 150.

 

Do you expect Jeremy Hill to get 8 touchdowns this year or something???

Isn't it possible that Hill is the best goal line/short yardage RB on this team?

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5 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Isn't it possible that Hill is the best goal line/short yardage RB on this team?

 

 

Maybe but are the Patriots going to dress him on gamedays just for that?

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10 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

 

Maybe but are the Patriots going to dress him on gamedays just for that?

They did with Blount. Blount was a one dimensional player for them. And he was very effective in that role when called upon.

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16 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Isn't it possible that Hill is the best goal line/short yardage RB on this team?

 

How many RB's can the Pats roster though?  Michel and Burkhead seem like the obvious top choices, but then you have Hill coming in to try for a spot.  And you still have James White around in a small role, but one that Hoodie always seems to like him for.  And as far as I know Brandon Bolden is still on the roster and always seems to make the cut to play special teams.  Not to mention the flop that was Gillislee.

 

At some point some players here are going to have to get cut.  And as nice as it would be to have Hill trot his big body out just on the goal line, are they going to have Michel on early downs, Burkhead on 3rd downs, Hill on the GL, White for 3rd down and trick plays, Bolden for ST, etc?  They're going to have to pick who is most important to them.

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They will probably have 4 on their 53 roster. Most teams do. But only dress 3 for game-day. Belichick has been doing that forever. He dresses the ones that he works into his weekly game-plan. And the same 3 aren't always used every week.

 

Sony and White are locks to make the 53 roster.

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57 minutes ago, devaster said:

They will probably have 4 on their 53 roster. Most teams do. But only dress 3 for game-day. Belichick has been doing that forever. He dresses the ones that he works into his weekly game-plan. And the same 3 aren't always used every week.

 

Sony and White are locks to make the 53 roster.

 

And isn't Bolden almost always active on game day for his ST?  So if that's the case, and Sony is a virtual lock, then Rex or White or Hill could be taking away snaps, but basically only one of them per week?  That would seem to favor Sony getting fairly high usage.  

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2 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

And isn't Bolden almost always active on game day for his ST?  So if that's the case, and Sony is a virtual lock, then Rex or White or Hill could be taking away snaps, but basically only one of them per week?  That would seem to favor Sony getting fairly high usage.  

Could depend on if any of the others are willing to play ST for a more significant and consistent role.

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On 24/07/2018 at 1:54 PM, handyandy86 said:

 

And isn't Bolden almost always active on game day for his ST?  So if that's the case, and Sony is a virtual lock, then Rex or White or Hill could be taking away snaps, but basically only one of them per week?  That would seem to favor Sony getting fairly high usage.  

 

Hill either has to beat out Bolden for the last spot or do enough to convince the Patriots to carry an extra RB. They will probably put Webb on the practice squad.

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15 minutes ago, dannyz6969 said:

I don't know much at all about Sony, but for those that do, how does he perform in pass protection? 

 

My understanding is that he was graded as elite in pass pro in college. 

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On 7/23/2018 at 10:54 PM, Evincar said:

 

 

Maybe but are the Patriots going to dress him on gamedays just for that?

We are talking about a team that will dress RBs to put up historical numbers, then have them vanish and get the boot.

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This is starting to remind me of Mike Gillislee last year. His ADP was all the way up to the early 4th and then as news started to come out people remembered how quickly the Pats will turn on an RB and he his ADP started to fall. 

 

One of of these days Brady’s steroid tolerance is going to be too much to overcome and the Pats will produce a STUD fantasy value pick at RB but it’s a pretty high price to pay for a whiff at S Michele’s current ADP

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13 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

This is starting to remind me of Mike Gillislee last year. His ADP was all the way up to the early 4th and then as news started to come out people remembered how quickly the Pats will turn on an RB and he his ADP started to fall. 

 

One of of these days Brady’s steroid tolerance is going to be too much to overcome and the Pats will produce a STUD fantasy value pick at RB but it’s a pretty high price to pay for a whiff at S Michele’s current ADP

 

Mike Gillisee was a relatively cheap FA signing. The Pats just spent a 1st round pick on Michel. He's going to have a longer leash than most of the Pats back under Bellicheck. Unless he fumbles like crazy I'm not too worried about Sonys usuage. 

 

The real question is who's the better value between Michel and Burkhead. 

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1 hour ago, Jj66 said:

 

Mike Gillisee was a relatively cheap FA signing. The Pats just spent a 1st round pick on Michel. He's going to have a longer leash than most of the Pats back under Bellicheck. Unless he fumbles like crazy I'm not too worried about Sonys usuage. 

 

The real question is who's the better value between Michel and Burkhead. 

Burkhead's ADP is already creeping up because he is more of the "Gillislee 2017 value" if you will.

 

I'm intrigued by White as insurance against Michel.  If Michel somehow busts PT wise that means white is going to get more PPR run than ever.  He is the true value in the backfield.

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1 minute ago, Magoo said:

Burkhead's ADP is already creeping up because he is more of the "Gillislee 2017 value" if you will.

 

I'm intrigued by White as insurance against Michel.  If Michel somehow busts PT wise that means white is going to get more PPR run than ever.  He is the true value in the backfield.

 

Watch J Hill sprain his ankle tripping over a cheeseburger and JD McKissic dominate the backfield after the Pats sign him off waivers.

 

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1 minute ago, FreakFries said:

 

Watch J Hill sprain his ankle tripping over a cheeseburger and JD McKissic dominate the backfield after the Pats sign him off waivers.

 

Don't forget DJ Foster!

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