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Sony Michel 2018 Outlook


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10 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

I don't know what it is, just have a feeling that too many people are sleeping on this guy and he's going to have a special year for the Pats. They've turned trash heap talent in to RB1s nearly every year--look at the seasons Blount and Lewis played that weren't in New England. Sony Michel is likely the most talented back they've had in years and as productive as the guys around him have been it seems like anyone can get it done in this offense. Hell, Jonas Gray had a 4 td game for the Pats just a few years ago only to never really play again. 

 

They didn't draft this guy with their first pick so he could watch Rex Burkhead and Jeremy Hill dominate snaps. The knee injury got cleaned up (as opposed to him trying to manage it all year) which makes me feel good about his season long prospects--and great about his depressed value now while the preseason hype players go ahead of him. We might need to be patient here to wait for Michel to get going but not unrealistic at all to think he's a top 15/20 back by the second half of the season. Upside on this guy feels huge and the price is right. Hes the exact kind of pick you'll be sitting there in week 8 and wondering, how did I pass up the first round running back on the Pats? 80% of first round picks put up RB1 numbers their rookie year, and they usually don't play with Brady. Don't sleep on Sony!

 

I think people are somewhat hesitant because of all of the moving parts in the Pats backfield. White will have a role no matter what and if Burkhead is healthy, his versatility in both the passing and running game will keep him on the field. It's a tough situation. I think Burkhead is the guy to own and if I draft Burkhead, you should be following that up that pick in the next few rounds with drafting Michel to protect your investment. It's what I consider a "must draft duo". If both are healthy, i see no real role for Hill. Michel has a ton of talent and is arguably the most talented RB on the roster, however that may not be shown unless there's an injury to Burk or not until 2019.

 

 

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7 hours ago, nonstopfan said:

 

I think people are somewhat hesitant because of all of the moving parts in the Pats backfield. White will have a role no matter what and if Burkhead is healthy, his versatility in both the passing and running game will keep him on the field. It's a tough situation. I think Burkhead is the guy to own and if I draft Burkhead, you should be following that up that pick in the next few rounds with drafting Michel to protect your investment. It's what I consider a "must draft duo". If both are healthy, i see no real role for Hill. Michel has a ton of talent and is arguably the most talented RB on the roster, however that may not be shown unless there's an injury to Burk or not until 2019.

 

The Patriots used a 1st round pick on him. He's going to play when he's gets healthy, otherwise they essentially wasted both their 1st round picks (Wynn is out for the year) The Patriots are also well known to not give players a 2nd contract so Michel is going to be used this year.

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Sony Michel (knee scope) returned to Patriots practice on Monday.

It was Michel's first practice since August 1. He is now on track to be ready for Week 1, though his role is unclear after he missed the entire preseason. The Pats' first-round investment in Michel speaks volumes, but Bill Belichick would be the last coach to force a player into the lineup because of his draft pedigree. The Pats' backfield remains difficult to forecast, but Rex Burkhead is the favorite to lead in Week 1 touches. Michel is a risk/reward RB3 in fantasy drafts.
 
 

Back at practice, two weeks before the start of the season which should be enough time to get his conditioning up and get him some work with Brady and the first team offense.

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4 minutes ago, AJ92 said:

Sony Michel (knee scope) returned to Patriots practice on Monday.

It was Michel's first practice since August 1. He is now on track to be ready for Week 1, though his role is unclear after he missed the entire preseason. The Pats' first-round investment in Michel speaks volumes, but Bill Belichick would be the last coach to force a player into the lineup because of his draft pedigree. The Pats' backfield remains difficult to forecast, but Rex Burkhead is the favorite to lead in Week 1 touches. Michel is a risk/reward RB3 in fantasy drafts.
 
 

Back at practice, two weeks before the start of the season which should be enough time to get his conditioning up and get him some work with Brady and the first team offense.

I still expect them to bring him along slowly and make sure he gets to 100% (however quickly that is). They're the Patriots, no need to take unnecessary risks. But I expect him to have a ton of value starting in November, and I think he has a good shot at being an RB1 from then on.

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This guy is the classic dumb brain vs. smart brain debate.

 

My dumb brain wants to draft him so badly.  Rookie that I loved coming out of college, has an incredible skillset, on a premier offense.  Gimme, gimme gimme.

 

Then my smart brain says "bro, it's the Patriots, they have other good RBs and it is impossible to predict their usage".

 

:angry:

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Just now, JJ1223 said:

This guy is the classic dumb brain vs. smart brain debate.

 

My dumb brain wants to draft him so badly.  Rookie that I loved coming out of college, has an incredible skillset, on a premier offense.  Gimme, gimme gimme.

 

Then my smart brain says "bro, it's the Patriots, they have other good RBs and it is impossible to predict their usage".

 

:angry:

 

it isn't impossible to predict their usage, once the season starts the landscape clears up pretty quick.  and right now all the NE RBs are priced out reasonably to be able to draft them at value.  i'm more concerned with his fumbling issues more than anything else. 

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11 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

it isn't impossible to predict their usage, once the season starts the landscape clears up pretty quick.  and right now all the NE RBs are priced out reasonably to be able to draft them at value.  i'm more concerned with his fumbling issues more than anything else. 

 

Those who watched Gillislee score 4 TDs in weeks 1-2, dreamed of championships, then saw him exiled by mid season would beg to differ.  

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Got him in the 10th round of a 12-teamer so I will try to be patient with him. Drafted a few guys that I will have to wait for: Ingram, Jones and Michel. Good thing is my starting team has no byes til week 6.

 

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2 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

Those who watched Gillislee score 4 TDs in weeks 1-2, dreamed of championships, then saw him banished by mid season would beg to differ.  

 

A stellar 3.45 YPC and 0 catches should have told everyone to sell.

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1 minute ago, Chardo said:

 

Those who watched Gillislee score 4 TDs in weeks 1-2, dreamed of championships, then saw him exiled by mid season would beg to differ.  

 

that's cuz he started fumbling.  like i said it is a pretty easy formula to predict usage in NE,  it is a myth that it is some crazy mystical thing.  everyone who picked Gilly preseason did it correctly.  he was earmarked as the RB to own going into draft season, that was the correct call as evident by his first 2 weeks as the GL back in NE, which is what everyone thought he would be.  and would have continued to be if ball security didn't become an issue.  so thanks for making my point for me.

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1 minute ago, Panthor said:

 

that's cuz he started fumbling.  like i said it is a pretty easy formula to predict usage in NE,  it is a myth that it is some crazy mystical thing.  everyone who picked Gilly preseason did it correctly.  he was earmarked as the RB to own going into draft season, that was the correct call as evident by his first 2 weeks as the GL back in NE, which is what everyone thought he would be.  and would have continued to be if ball security didn't become an issue.  so thanks for making my point for me.

 

But that's the thing with Belichick.  There's no leash.  Anyone can miss a block or put a ball on the ground and be benched the next game.  

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9 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

that's cuz he started fumbling.  like i said it is a pretty easy formula to predict usage in NE,  it is a myth that it is some crazy mystical thing.  everyone who picked Gilly preseason did it correctly.  he was earmarked as the RB to own going into draft season, that was the correct call as evident by his first 2 weeks as the GL back in NE, which is what everyone thought he would be.  and would have continued to be if ball security didn't become an issue.  so thanks for making my point for me.

The point you're making is wrong. If you predicted Gillislee was the guy and didn't predict he'd have fumbling issues, you didn't predict the outcome correctly, did you? He wasn't the guy to own. I'm not drafting September usage, I'm drafting usage that lasts into January. There haven't been many Patriots running backs since Corey Dillon that were the first guy off the board in September and contributed consistently throughout the year so, yes, it is near impossible to predict their usage.

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1 minute ago, Chardo said:

 

But that's the thing with Belichick.  There's no leash.  Anyone can miss a block or put a ball on the ground and be benched the next game.  

 

so which is it?  that players in NE have a short leash or that NE is too unpredictable?   stop moving the line and changing the story

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Just now, MJ10162 said:

The point you're making is wrong. If you predicted Gillislee was the guy and didn't predict he'd have fumbling issues, you didn't predict the outcome correctly, did you? He wasn't the guy to own. I'm not drafting September usage, I'm drafting usage that lasts into January. There haven't been many Patriots running backs that were the first guy off the board in September and contributed consistently throughout the year so, yes, it is near impossible to predict their usage.

you're looking at it incorrectly.  how were you going to predict the fumbling issues?  when he signed with NE the thought was he is taking over for the GL role in that offense, that proved to the case.  and would have continued to be the case, the issue wasn't that he is ineffective as a GL rb.  you can say it is unpredictable if they were rotating GL carries constantly but that wasn't the case, it was clearly Gilly's job last year.  the roles that were projected for the NE RBs in the preseason actually were right on point when the full complement were available at the beginning of the season,  and just like you can't predict when an injury will happen you couldn't have possible predicted Gilly would have ball security issues after a few weeks.  your point makes no sense at all

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22 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

so which is it?  that players in NE have a short leash or that NE is too unpredictable?   stop moving the line and changing the story

 

They're the same thing. NE is unpredictable because the leash is so short. You'll draft a sure thing and then he'll have two random fumbles, or he'll miss a block, and suddenly he'll be benched for a month. God forbid he's late to a team meeting -- he might never play again. 

 

Last year, the guy everyone thought was a star got benched. The year before that, Legarrette Blount was a totally random fantasy MVP after being ranked RB42 preseason. The three years before that, the Patriots failed to produce a single good fantasy running back. You have to go all the way back to 2012 to find a Pats RB (Stevan Ridley) who was projected to be good before the season and then actually was good. 

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36 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

so which is it?  that players in NE have a short leash or that NE is too unpredictable?   stop moving the line and changing the story

 

Short leash. It was pretty obvious who was going to be the guy after the Texans game. I agree with you.

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36 minutes ago, MJ10162 said:

The point you're making is wrong. If you predicted Gillislee was the guy and didn't predict he'd have fumbling issues, you didn't predict the outcome correctly, did you? He wasn't the guy to own. I'm not drafting September usage, I'm drafting usage that lasts into January. There haven't been many Patriots running backs since Corey Dillon that were the first guy off the board in September and contributed consistently throughout the year so, yes, it is near impossible to predict their usage.

 

I generally agree with you but 2012 Stevan Ridley was a champ from start to finish!  Particularly in standard scoring.

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6 minutes ago, ManateeSheriff said:

 

They're the same thing. NE is unpredictable because the leash is so short. You'll draft a sure thing and then he'll have two random fumbles, or he'll miss a block, and suddenly he'll be benched for a month. God forbid he's late to a team meeting -- he might never play again. 

 

Last year, the guy everyone thought was a star got benched. The year before that, Legarrette Blount was a totally random fantasy MVP after being ranked RB42 preseason. The three years before that, the Patriots failed to produce a single good fantasy running back. You have to go all the way back to 2012 to find a Pats RB (Stevan Ridley) who was projected to be good before the season and then actually was good. 

 

that's like saying it is unpredictable because someone could get hurt.  the whole point is there are defined roles.  it is predictable.  but you can't control outside forces.  just because it take a little more effort to read the tea leaves in NE doesn't mean they can't be read.  calling it unpredictable is simply lazy

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Well all seeing Mr panther.  NE rbs are easy to predict... So which one is the one to own this season?  Hogan and Michel have similar draft prices which aren't bad on their own but I can't afford two rounds of picks to get them both, and don't feel like taking a 50/50 shot in one either...  So lay that knowledge on me which one of easily predictable to be valuable?

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40 minutes ago, Kyle87 said:

Well all seeing Mr panther.  NE rbs are easy to predict... So which one is the one to own this season?  Hogan and Michel have similar draft prices which aren't bad on their own but I can't afford two rounds of picks to get them both, and don't feel like taking a 50/50 shot in one either...  So lay that knowledge on me which one of easily predictable to be valuable?

Well one is a RB and the other a WR. So...

 

FYI, when arguing on the internet you should usually have your example/players correct (especially on this forum). 

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49 minutes ago, Kyle87 said:

Well all seeing Mr panther.  NE rbs are easy to predict... So which one is the one to own this season?  Hogan and Michel have similar draft prices which aren't bad on their own but I can't afford two rounds of picks to get them both, and don't feel like taking a 50/50 shot in one either...  So lay that knowledge on me which one of easily predictable to be valuable?

 

Hogan and Michel have similar prices? Hogan is around 40 while Michel is 90 in Yahoo. Burkhead is around 60.

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