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Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook


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1 minute ago, the Ghost of Joe Webb said:

As a Browns fan, I would advise pumping the breaks a bit fellas. For one, Duke Johnson was already at a near 50% snap share before the trade, and he is a great playmaker in his own right, in fact the Browns best skill player the last few years. He will still have a lot of the coaches' trust and I expect Chubb to be eased into a lead role. The good news is that Baker will continue to get better moving the offense downfield and the Browns have a great fantasy schedule. 

 

Just don't expect the coaching staff to always be rational.

Love the user name and I'll temper my expectations a bit and predict a 10/327/4 line rushing. ;)

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3 hours ago, psygolf said:

lol, training wheels...He's not even a top flex play for me anymore.

 

In standard scoring DJ is the #9 RB. There is no way you have 2-3 RBs ranked higher and even if you did, you could certainly trade him to make your team better.  I call BS on dropping him.

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43 minutes ago, oban14 said:

The arrow is pointing in the right direction, more so each week.

 

lol the season is halfway over and he was a 4th rounder.  he almost has to kill it the rest of the year to justify the pick

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Either chubb or Duke are both good pickups. I think it will be closer to a split then some think on here. Maybe not in carries chubb should dominate those but overall snap counts should be close. Especially when the browns are playing from behind. But for free you can't complain for either player. I was aiming for chubb in standard scoring but someone got him first ended up with Duke. No complaints here. Chubb should def be a RB2 though. I think RB1 is pushing it but you never know.

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18 minutes ago, the Ghost of Joe Webb said:

As a Browns fan, I would advise pumping the breaks a bit fellas. For one, Duke Johnson was already at a near 50% snap share before the trade, and he is a great playmaker in his own right, in fact the Browns best skill player the last few years. He will still have a lot of the coaches' trust and I expect Chubb to be eased into a lead role. The good news is that Baker will continue to get better moving the offense downfield and the Browns have a great fantasy schedule. 

 

Just don't expect the coaching staff to always be rational.

 

Good point. With the receiving core as banged up as it is though, why not use Duke in the slot and Chubb in the backfield so your best playmakers are on the field together? I could really use WR eligibility on Duke!

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1 minute ago, Vendetta said:

 

Good point. With the receiving core as banged up as it is though, why not use Duke in the slot and Chubb in the backfield so your best playmakers are on the field together? I could really use WR eligibility on Duke!

This would actually be a big win for both players. Being able to use Duke in the WR slot is a big advantage. Would be nice.

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24 minutes ago, munde53 said:

They end up pulling him mid way through the 1st quarter to keep him fresh for week 8 because he's already carried the Browns to a 70 - 0 lead.

Oh, so those are just his first quarter stats? A little modest, but it is his first week starting after all.

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1 hour ago, datsyuk said:

Yep, I am also sending Howard to the bench for Chubb. May the fantasy Gods bless us.

Also did the same thing in one league, but having a harder time in another where I would have to take out Michel or K. Johnson to put in Chubb.  Either way it is a good decision to have now!

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Realistically I think Chubb is going to struggle quite a bit. Hyde wasn't struggling all on his own. Defenses were keying on him because Baker is still a rookie. That probably doesn't change much until Baker turns it around.

 

The bright side is Haley loves a one RB system. He funnels most of the RB touches through one guy. That guy is conceivably Chubb going forward. And if Baker starts playing better and the offense begins to improve Chubb is in for a massive workload.

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Just now, devaster said:

Realistically I think Chubb is going to struggle quite a bit. Hyde wasn't struggling all on his own. Defenses were keying on him because Baker is still a rookie. That probably doesn't change much until Chubb starts running teams over.

 

The bright side is Haley loves a one RB system. He funnels most of the RB touches through one guy. That guy is conceivably Chubb going forward. And if Baker starts playing better and the offense begins to improve Chubb is in for a massive workload.

Chubb is on the same level talent wise as Barkley and if Chubb didn't have his knee mangled in college he may have been drafted ahead of Barkley. That's not hyperbole.

 

Chubb very could struggle as many rookies do but he has the talent and now the opportunity to excel. 

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

Realistically I think Chubb is going to struggle quite a bit. Hyde wasn't struggling all on his own. Defenses were keying on him because Baker is still a rookie. That probably doesn't change much until Baker turns it around.

 

The bright side is Haley loves a one RB system. He funnels most of the RB touches through one guy. That guy is conceivably Chubb going forward. And if Baker starts playing better and the offense begins to improve Chubb is in for a massive workload.

So I won't argue this definitively however Im not sure where Haley loving a one RB system comes into play. This is the guy that played Thomas Jones 50/50 with J charles when charles was in his prime averaging around 6-7 yards a carry. At pittsburgh he had no choice but to play Bell. It was pretty obvious he would be canned if he didn't. In Cleveland they payed Hyde to come in and had a rookie in chubb so that was kind of obvious he would play hyde. Now they got rid of hyde. So its not a lock for the rookie chubb to just be THE guy. It can happen but I wouldn't be shocked if it doesn't. 

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5 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Chubb is on the same level talent wise as Barkley and if Chubb didn't have his knee mangled in college he may have been drafted ahead of Barkley. That's not hyperbole.

 

Chubb very could struggle as many rookies do but he has the talent and now the opportunity to excel. 

No he's not, where do you come up with this garbage?

 

Chubb can't do ANY aspect of the RB position better than Barkley, nothing.

 

He can't even pass block which is why he doesn't play much.

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10 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Chubb is on the same level talent wise as Barkley and if Chubb didn't have his knee mangled in college he may have been drafted ahead of Barkley. That's not hyperbole.

 

 

This is most definitely hyperbole lol

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47 minutes ago, the Ghost of Joe Webb said:

As a Browns fan, I would advise pumping the breaks a bit fellas. For one, Duke Johnson was already at a near 50% snap share before the trade, and he is a great playmaker in his own right, in fact the Browns best skill player the last few years. He will still have a lot of the coaches' trust and I expect Chubb to be eased into a lead role. The good news is that Baker will continue to get better moving the offense downfield and the Browns have a great fantasy schedule. 

 

Just don't expect the coaching staff to always be rational.

 

I will def take your advice into consideration, might sit him and watch and see what happens thid week.

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I just looked at snap counts. Now it does not tell everything. But Hyde's numbers decreased significantly last two games. Hyde went from 49 in week 4 to 28 week 5 and 32 week 6. Duke went from 29 week 4 to 41 week 5 and 35 week 6. Chubb had 3 in week 4 11 in week 5 and 7 in week 6. So Hyde being gone obviously boosts chubbs value but by how much in relation to Duke?

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1 minute ago, raidaz18 said:

No he's not, where do you come up with this garbage?

 

Chubb can't do ANY aspect of the RB position better than Barkley, nothing.

 

He can't even pass block which is why he doesn't play much.

 

Actually he is, lower but still elite either way (99% SPARQ vs 98% SPARQ).

 

How do you figure? Have you meticulously broken down their game tapes? I haven't so I'm not going to pretend by saying Chubb does some aspect of the RB position better than Barkley but I'm also not going to throw out a blanket statement that Barkley is better at everything compared to Chubb. Obviously Barkley is tearing it up right now so it's easy to say he's better at everything when compared to Chubb.

 

Rookie RBs typically struggle in pass blocking as many are not required to do so in college. Chubb falls under that category but that does not mean he will not improve in that area. Michel was the RB who was typically in on passing downs in Georgia so it makes sense that there would be a learning curve for Chubb.

 

Matt Waldman who writes for the Footballguys graded Chubb higher than any RB he has graded in the past 5 years, that includes Barkley. I'm not saying that Waldman is correct or that he's some great talent evaluator but it is food for thought.

 

Chubb was on a path after his freshman year to be a top 10 draft pick before a horrific injury almost derailed his career. 

 

1 minute ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

This is most definitely hyperbole lol

 

Saquon Barkley 99% SPARQ score (149.8).

Nick Chubb 98% SPARQ score (140.1).

 

SPARQ scores are definitely not everything but they do show raw athletic ability and the two players aren't as far off as the common perception would lead you to believe. Now I do believe Barkley is a better athlete but I don't think it's by as big of a margin that many people would lead you to believe. 

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9 minutes ago, munde53 said:

 

Actually he is, lower but still elite either way (99% SPARQ vs 98% SPARQ).

 

How do you figure? Have you meticulously broken down their game tapes? I haven't so I'm not going to pretend by saying Chubb does some aspect of the RB position better than Barkley but I'm also not going to throw out a blanket statement that Barkley is better at everything compared to Chubb. Obviously Barkley is tearing it up right now so it's easy to say he's better at everything when compared to Chubb.

 

Rookie RBs typically struggle in pass blocking as many are not required to do so in college. Chubb falls under that category but that does not mean he will not improve in that area. Michel was the RB who was typically in on passing downs in Georgia so it makes sense that there would be a learning curve for Chubb.

 

Matt Waldman who writes for the Footballguys graded Chubb higher than any RB he has graded in the past 5 years, that includes Barkley. I'm not saying that Waldman is correct or that he's some great talent evaluator but it is food for thought.

 

Chubb was on a path after his freshman year to be a top 10 draft pick before a horrific injury almost derailed his career. 

 

 

Saquon Barkley 99% SPARQ score (149.8).

Nick Chubb 98% SPARQ score (140.1).

 

SPARQ scores are definitely not everything but they do show raw athletic ability and the two players aren't as far off as the common perception would lead you to believe. Now I do believe Barkley is a better athlete but I don't think it's by as big of a margin that many people would lead you to believe. 

 

Similar sparq score /=/ similar talent

 

Sure Chubb was thought of as a top 10 talent as a freshman but that was 3 years ago.  If he was thought of as a top 10 talent he would have gone in the top 10, not as the RB4.

 

Im not going to spout out my own analysis of each player (top 5 grade on Barkley and Round 3 grade on Chubb) but Barkley was almost unamously thought of as one of if not THE best RB prospect of all time, such a sure thing that the Giants were willing to pass on multiple potential franchise QBs for him.

 

Im lucky enough to have Chubb on my team but it’s an incredibly rare opinion to have him anywhere near Barkley as a talent (Waldman and Jon Ledyard are the only two that come to mind).

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51 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Chubb is on the same level talent wise as Barkley and if Chubb didn't have his knee mangled in college he may have been drafted ahead of Barkley. That's not hyperbole.

 

Chubb very could struggle as many rookies do but he has the talent and now the opportunity to excel. 

Honestly I doubted Barkley more then anybody.  But what he has done with that horrible line and passing game in NY is amazing.  He reminds me on a mix Barry and Emitt.  I highly doubt Chubb is on the same talent level.  Guess we will see.

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