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Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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18 hours ago, lolcopter said:

 

How cool would it be if Arians took the job

 

I admittedly will pop a chub if Arians becomes Chubbs' new HC. I think it would be a solid move for the Brownies. 

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26 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I admittedly will pop a chub if Arians becomes Chubbs' new HC. I think it would be a solid move for the Brownies. 

Bet Browns to win SB immediately

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17 hours ago, munde53 said:

I'm not sure why you think Duke will get 90% of the passes and Chubb only 10% when that hasn't been the case all year. Duke has averaged right around 3 catches per game while Chubb/Hyde have averaged about 1 catch per game. So admittedly Chubb hasn't been utilized in the passing game all that much (to this point) but you're overstating Duke's role and understating Chubb's. That comes out to a 25% catch share for Chubb per game for Browns RBs. On top of that, since Chubb became the starter Duke has averaged around 5 targets per game while Chubb has averaged 2. So Chubb has roughly 25% of the catches and roughly 29% of the targets for Browns RBs. 

 

Overall I agree that Chubb needs to be more involved in the passing game to reach that next tier of fantasy production.

Seeing how the new offensive coordinator was the runnings back coach, he's going to want to run his offense through both running backs more.  That's just a natural outlook for any former position coach, who's geared in helping his guys succeed.  We'll continue to see a lot of Chubb & Duke, no question in my mind

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12 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Anyone doing a Chubby Johnson stack on Sunday :D

 

I'm going with a Chubby Smallwood at Rb/Rb

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10 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Anyone doing a Chubby Johnson stack on Sunday :D

 

there is no better week to play them both if you have them both!

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9 hours ago, munde53 said:

Anyone doing a Chubby Johnson stack on Sunday :D

 

9 hours ago, MurderInc said:

 

I'm going with a Chubby Smallwood at Rb/Rb

 

Counting one of my WR's due to BYE's, I'll be going with a Bald(win) Chubby Johnson, lol

 

Honestly though, this dude has saved my season, he should be at least a RB2 ROS, with games like this one coming up against ATL, having RB1 potential

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Been trying to offload Chubb for the past 2 weeks and dudes in my league don't think he's much better than the Kenyon Drakes and Frank Gores of the world....Wtf....

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19 minutes ago, dams513 said:

Been trying to offload Chubb for the past 2 weeks and dudes in my league don't think he's much better than the Kenyon Drakes and Frank Gores of the world....Wtf....

I think he is in the same area as Drake.

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1 minute ago, dams513 said:

woops, nvm then lmao

Chubb is a solid RB2. Probably low-end RB2 in PPR. More valuable in standard. He isn't going to see many targets. 60-80- yards from scrimmage and TD opportunities.

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chubb will eat yards whole next year after training camp as the starter with mayfield under center to begin with. look at where hue jackass had this team at the begining of the season.....tyrod and hyde.....now look at it.

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4 minutes ago, devaster said:

Chubb is a solid RB2. Probably low-end RB2 in PPR. More valuable in standard. He isn't going to see many targets. 60-80- yards from scrimmage and TD opportunities.

Thing I really like about Chubb is I think his floor is rock solid.  Dude got 22 carries while his team was trailing to the chiefs.  So I think he gets at least 9-12 points every week based on 70-90 yards rushing, 2-3 catches.  Upside is based on TD but I think his floor is more solid than most.  Drake can get the same points, but he's 100% dependent on a big play or TD, where as I think Chubb's floor brings him a bit above Drake.

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11 minutes ago, devaster said:

Chubb is a solid RB2. Probably low-end RB2 in PPR. More valuable in standard. He isn't going to see many targets. 60-80- yards from scrimmage and TD opportunities.

Although I agree he’s an RB2, I would disagree on low-end. He’s solid even in PPR with his touches. The only thing that doesn’t get him RB1 status like Michel is the Browns offense isn’t prolific.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

I think he is in the same area as Drake.

 

Yeah. It's called the Northern Hemisphere. That's about it. :)

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3 hours ago, dams513 said:

Thing I really like about Chubb is I think his floor is rock solid.  Dude got 22 carries while his team was trailing to the chiefs.  So I think he gets at least 9-12 points every week based on 70-90 yards rushing, 2-3 catches.  Upside is based on TD but I think his floor is more solid than most.  Drake can get the same points, but he's 100% dependent on a big play or TD, where as I think Chubb's floor brings him a bit above Drake.

Is there any concern this changes though?  Doesn't seem like a solid game plan to keep pounding the run when down by multiple scores..I own Chubb too, no shares in Johnson, so I want what you say to be true...

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41 minutes ago, CletisVanDamme said:

Is there any concern this changes though?  Doesn't seem like a solid game plan to keep pounding the run when down by multiple scores..I own Chubb too, no shares in Johnson, so I want what you say to be true...

Way I see it, they want to establish the run and make sure they are balanced.  I don't think they are looking at the playoffs this season after firing their HC and OC, so I don't think the goal is to win games.  I'm thinking the goal is to develop young talent and to help them progress.  And we've seen what demanding too much too early can do to most QB's.  So I honestly think he's safe.  He will get at least 18 rushes per game moving forward.  For him to reach top 12 status tho, he needs to be more of a factor in the pass game.

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3 minutes ago, csv2209 said:

Chubb over the likes of Kerryon?

Easily for me, based on the situation.  Seems like browns are gonna give Chubb his 20 touches a game.  Kerryon isn't guaranteed his amount.

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6 minutes ago, dams513 said:

Easily for me, based on the situation.  Seems like browns are gonna give Chubb his 20 touches a game.  Kerryon isn't guaranteed his amount.

I see that making sense. The lions are in a bit of disarray, but with the departure of Tate, I'm just wondering how much that opens up for Kerryon in the passing game as well. I think hes already seeing like 5 targets a game.  Big difference I see too is Chubb being the GL back, while Kerryon gets vultured by Blount in the redzone, and occasionally by Riddick on passes

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16 minutes ago, csv2209 said:

I see that making sense. The lions are in a bit of disarray, but with the departure of Tate, I'm just wondering how much that opens up for Kerryon in the passing game as well. I think hes already seeing like 5 targets a game.  Big difference I see too is Chubb being the GL back, while Kerryon gets vultured by Blount in the redzone, and occasionally by Riddick on passes

 

Theo Riddick is going to kill Kerryons pass catching game

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1 minute ago, jpark211 said:

 

Theo Riddick is going to kill Kerryons pass catching game

 

I don't understand why they're so content on Riddick.  Watching the game, he was super pathetic with his yards after catch, and honestly didn't keep any of their drives alive.   7 catches for 36 yards?  Barf.  You can't tell me Johnson couldn't have gotten open for those same receptions and done more with them.  It's mystifying.  

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23 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

I don't understand why they're so content on Riddick.  Watching the game, he was super pathetic with his yards after catch, and honestly didn't keep any of their drives alive.   7 catches for 36 yards?  Barf.  You can't tell me Johnson couldn't have gotten open for those same receptions and done more with them.  It's mystifying.  

I think it's more about Riddick being a safety valve.  Think about it this way.  Lions were constantly sent their WR's on long routes vs the vikings.  Long routes take longer time develop, so the o-line needs to hold the pass rush for longer.  Problem is, they couldn't.  So because of that 1) the vikings got 10 sacks, 2) stafford had to  dump it off to his 3rd/4th read often(riddick and such. And since they weren't plays designed to get riddick open as he wasn't 1st or 2nd read, he probably had a defender close by to tackle him on catch) and 3) the WR's couldn't get very involved in the game.

 

Basically, I agree Riddick isn't great.  But no one can deny that he is very safe.  So when Stafford passed to Riddick, it wasn't because he wanted to.  It was because a 6 yard completion is better than taking another sack, so he just dumped it off to the safe guy.  Can Kerryon do the same? Maybe, but he wasn't asked to be.  And also, Riddick was taking some snaps as a WR, so that had something to do with it i think.

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50 minutes ago, csv2209 said:

I see that making sense. The lions are in a bit of disarray, but with the departure of Tate, I'm just wondering how much that opens up for Kerryon in the passing game as well. I think hes already seeing like 5 targets a game.  Big difference I see too is Chubb being the GL back, while Kerryon gets vultured by Blount in the redzone, and occasionally by Riddick on passes

With riddick coming back, I can see him taking a few targets away from Kerryon.   Riddick is a guy they trust alot.  Although he isn't the best RB or a big play guy, he's a safe guy to throw to.  He won't win you games, but he's good for a few 6-7 yards catch a game when you need him is the way I see him.  So now, Kerryon will not only get vultured by Blount in the Rz, but by Riddick in the pass game.

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Image result for Big Smile GIF

 

Edited by Cdub2k
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