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Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

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51 minutes ago, kdko said:

Fournette above him, LOL.  Let's see if that guy survives the month.

The jaguars whole team is based around LF. If he’s out, there’s zero chance for their team based around their whole identitty. The same can’t be said for Chubb as of now. I’d take LF over Chubb every time as of now and I own both. LF is a proven beast w the ball in his hands on the ground and even catching (at least as much as Chubb through the air). Everybody has their preference w health concerns, but I look at upside and nothing else and LF is that entire offense no questions asked.

 

On a side note, Chubb is gonna blow up. Dude is a legit stud

Edited by itschief33

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Any thoughts on how Hue Jackson being hired by the Bengals this week and providing intel on his old team, will affect Chubb?  The Bengals got two games left against the Browns

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54 minutes ago, itschief33 said:

The jaguars whole team is based around LF. If he’s out, there’s zero chance for their team based around their whole identitty. The same can’t be said for Chubb as of now. I’d take LF over Chubb every time as of now and I own both. LF is a proven beast w the ball in his hands on the ground and even catching (at least as much as Chubb through the air). Everybody has their preference w health concerns, but I look at upside and nothing else and LF is that entire offense no questions asked.

 

On a side note, Chubb is gonna blow up. Dude is a legit stud

You're still underselling Chubb in regard to his role on the Browns. 

 

In week 10 Chubb handled the ball on 43.4% of the Browns plays. That's not snap count that's on 43.3% of the Browns plays Chubb either got a hand off or caught a pass. In week 9 Chubb handled the ball on 30.7% of the plays, in week 8 he handled the ball on 31.3%, and in week 7 he handled the ball on 26.5%. That averages out to Chubb handling the ball on roughly 1/3 (32.975% to be exact) of all of the Browns offensive plays.

 

In 2017 the Jags had 908 total offensive snaps in games where Fournette played. On those 908 total offensive snaps Fournette touched the ball 304 times which comes out to Fournette touching the ball on 1/3 (33.48% to be exact) of the Jags total offensive snaps in 2017. 

 

Just because the Jags offense is inept without Fournette and the Browns in theory would not be as inept without Chubb does not mean that Chubb is not the identity of this offense. All it means is that the Browns have a better QB than the Jags.

 

The Browns are currently utilizing Chubb the same way the Jags utilized Fournette in 2017. 

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11 minutes ago, munde53 said:

...The Browns are currently utilizing Chubb the same way the Jags utilized Fournette in 2017. 

I agree w a majority of what you’re saying. However, I don’t think Yeldon had as much an effect as Duke has on Chubb. Rightfully so.. Duke is a great pass catching back. Yeldon is no slouch but there’s levels to this game haha. I understand and love the fact that Cleveland still runs Chubb when behind and all that. He’s a great running back on an upward team. I would still rather have LF this year in redraft because he’s the team. I guess some would probably say Ramsey or the Def when asked Who are the jags. The same can’t yet be said for the Browns. Baker is much more promising and much more will be put on him to develop him than will be masked running the ball w LF for Bortles. I have Chubb real high in my rankings. But I’m still just as high on LF now than I was pre draft. Like I said, I don’t rank players w injury risk factored in. I might be minority but so be it

Edited by itschief33

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5 minutes ago, itschief33 said:

I agree w a majority of what you’re saying. However, I don’t think Yeldon had as much an effect as Duke has on Chubb. Rightfully so.. Duke is a great pass catching back. Yeldon is no slouch but there’s levels to this game haha. I understand and love the fact that Cleveland still runs Chubb when behind and all that. He’s a great running back on an upward team. I would still rather have LF this year in redraft because he’s the team. I guess some would probably say Ramsey or the Def when asked Who are the jags. The same can’t yet be said for the Browns. Baker is much more promising and much more will be put on him to develop him than will be masked running the ball w LF for Bortles. I have Chubb real high in my rankings. But I’m still just as high on LF now than I was pre draft. Like I said, I don’t rank players w injury risk factored in. I might be minority but so be it

I respectfully disagree with the Duke vs. Yeldon aspect as I think there is a big difference between perception and reality when it comes to Duke. Yeldon averaged about 3 catches per game last year which is the same as Duke this year. I don't think Duke has really any impact on Chubb since at this point I think he's just a COP/3rd down back the same as Yeldon. 

 

Either way this is kind of a dumb debate and I'm just splitting hairs at this point. Both guys are going to continue to get fed week in and week out so lets just enjoy the ride.  

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4 minutes ago, munde53 said:

I respectfully disagree with the Duke vs. Yeldon aspect as I think there is a big difference between perception and reality when it comes to Duke. Yeldon averaged about 3 catches per game last year which is the same as Duke this year. I don't think Duke has really any impact on Chubb since at this point I think he's just a COP/3rd down back the same as Yeldon. 

 

Either way this is kind of a dumb debate and I'm just splitting hairs at this point. Both guys are going to continue to get fed week in and week out so lets just enjoy the ride.  

Yeah but on their careers duke is averaging 9.3 YPR as Opposed to Yeldon 7.7 YPR with a much larger sample size. There is a difference if you watch them both on tape catching the ball. Duke is much more suited to that role.

 

Im not downplaying Chubb at all. I’m HUGE on him now and the future but I’m just as high on the raw talent of LF and the fact he is the “sun” of the Jags system

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2 hours ago, itschief33 said:

 I’d take LF over Chubb every time as of now and I own both. LF is a proven beast w the ball in his hands on the ground and even catching (at least as much as Chubb through the air). 

 

You're crazy then.  In next years draft, i'd take Chubb over LF easily.  The thing that LF has proven more than anything is that he can't stay healthy if you give him a big workload.  He's also boasting a pretty sad 3.7 YPC right now, and Chubbs longest run has beaten out LF's career best.  If Chubb keeps getting this kind of workload he's only going to separate himself further than LF imo.  LF needs to prove he can even play 16 games in a season despite being the 'centerpiece.'  Not sure what kind of centerpiece someone who's injured all season is.

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1 hour ago, itschief33 said:

Yeah but on their careers duke is averaging 9.3 YPR as Opposed to Yeldon 7.7 YPR with a much larger sample size. There is a difference if you watch them both on tape catching the ball. Duke is much more suited to that role.

 

Im not downplaying Chubb at all. I’m HUGE on him now and the future but I’m just as high on the raw talent of LF and the fact he is the “sun” of the Jags system

Lmao....IMO I would never draft Fournette. Not into injury prone players that you can never depend on. He’s already missed half the season, and in the 2 games he did play in he got a big 4.5 pts and humongous 8.5 pts in full ppr. NO THANKS!! Chubb and many others over Part Time Broken Fournette.

 

Nothing to to talk about here.

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Once Hyde was traded Chubb became an instant (add water) RB2. That put him as a 5th round pick at worst next year if he did even modestly well. 

 

Now that he has actually performed as no less than a middling (I do agree somewhat TD-dependent) RB1 he could go as high as the 3rd round in some drafts next year.

 

If Mayfield can continue to progress (and I am impressed so far) along with at least a few of the weapons at his disposal, Chubb is a potential top 5 RB as soon as next year, if not 2020 assuming health.

 

You don't win in CLE w/o a mudder. Duke's great - but when it's "winning time" Chubb is going to be out there. His success since the Hyde trade says everything I need to know.

 

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24 minutes ago, Tomei7 said:

Lmao....IMO I would never draft Fournette. Not into injury prone players that you can never depend on. He’s already missed half the season, and in the 2 games he did play in he got a big 4.5 pts and humongous 8.5 pts in full ppr. NO THANKS!! Chubb and many others over Part Time Broken Fournette.

 

Nothing to to talk about here.

Are we not including his last game orrrrrr? 

 

Sorry you’re so sensitive to this topic

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7 minutes ago, itschief33 said:

Are we not including his last game orrrrrr? 

 

Sorry you’re so sensitive to this topic

Bruh he barely averaged 2 ypc on 24 carries.  Granted, he did salvage his day with a good receiving line and two tds.

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30 minutes ago, itschief33 said:

Are we not including his last game orrrrrr? 

 

Sorry you’re so sensitive to this topic

 

Signed, Fournette dynasty owner

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23 minutes ago, itschief33 said:

Are we not including his last game orrrrrr? 

 

Sorry you’re so sensitive to this topic

I look at more than just the last game. I seen them all 8.5/0/0/4.5/0/0/0/0/bye/27.5, that’s  40.5pts in 9 games, Chubbs almost got that in 1 game. No comparison because of durability/health which is always a main factor in my book. Apples to Oranges. LF is Boom, Bust, or OUT! 

 

 Not Interested

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I have LF and Chubb. I feel significantly easier about starting Chubb over LF. I will always be cringing every carry LF gets, that his hammy will give out again.... So for me, I have Chubb as my rb2 and LF in my flex, unless I have a better matchup with one or my wr’s, to sit LF. 

 

I hate leaving 20+ points on my bench, but hate even more when I only get 3-5 points from a player that exits the game early with hamstring problems... So far, LF has not proven he can stay on the field, and with his violent running style, leaves him exposed to excessive wear and tear. If drafting today, I would take Chubb over LF, mainly for that reason...

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6 hours ago, rocket said:

Any thoughts on how Hue Jackson being hired by the Bengals this week and providing intel on his old team, will affect Chubb?  The Bengals got two games left against the Browns

 

Hue barely knew who the guys on his roster were, much less how best to try to stop them from the other side. "Chubb...isn't he that D-lineman? Do we really gotta worry about that guy carrying the ball? Now Peyton Hillis...he's their real threat."

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6 hours ago, rocket said:

Any thoughts on how Hue Jackson being hired by the Bengals this week and providing intel on his old team, will affect Chubb?  The Bengals got two games left against the Browns

Hue hardly used Chubb and he hardly used Duke, and Hue is a terrible coach. He has no idea what's going on. 

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2 minutes ago, cordovahi said:

sucks he is on a bye this week :(

 

Look at it on the bright side: he gets rested for the most crucial stretch of the fantasy season.

 

#positivethinking

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11 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

Once Hyde was traded Chubb became an instant (add water) RB2. That put him as a 5th round pick at worst next year if he did even modestly well. 

 

Now that he has actually performed as no less than a middling (I do agree somewhat TD-dependent) RB1 he could go as high as the 3rd round in some drafts next year.

 

If Mayfield can continue to progress (and I am impressed so far) along with at least a few of the weapons at his disposal, Chubb is a potential top 5 RB as soon as next year, if not 2020 assuming health.

 

You don't win in CLE w/o a mudder. Duke's great - but when it's "winning time" Chubb is going to be out there. His success since the Hyde trade says everything I need to know.

 

 

 

I kinda feel like even if he only has one or two more blow-up games and the rest of the season he does what he has been doing (scoring in that 10-15 point range in half-ppr) he will consistently be going in the 2nd/3rd round next season.. Due to recency bias and offseason RB hype in addition to solid on-field performance he could easily supplant Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry (seriously), LeSean McCoy, Alex Collins, etc.. all of which had an ADP of the 2nd or 3rd round according to Yahoo. 

Edited by MoonBlaster
Words and stuff

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30 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

 

I kinda feel like even if he only has one or two more blow-up games and the rest of the season he does what he has been doing (scoring in that 10-15 point range in half-ppr) he will consistently be going in the 2nd/3rd round next season.. Due to recency bias and offseason RB hype in addition to solid on-field performance he could easily supplant Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry (seriously), LeSean McCoy, Alex Collins, etc.. all of which had an ADP of the 2nd or 3rd round according to Yahoo. 

If Chubb continues doing what he's been doing, I imagine he will be firmly ahead of those guys next draft.  I see him being about the 10th RB off the board next year so yeah probably second round about.  

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2 hours ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

 

I kinda feel like even if he only has one or two more blow-up games and the rest of the season he does what he has been doing (scoring in that 10-15 point range in half-ppr) he will consistently be going in the 2nd/3rd round next season.. Due to recency bias and offseason RB hype in addition to solid on-field performance he could easily supplant Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry (seriously), LeSean McCoy, Alex Collins, etc.. all of which had an ADP of the 2nd or 3rd round according to Yahoo. 

Half of those guys won't even be starters next year. Chubb would already go ahead of all of them. 

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16 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Half of those guys won't even be starters next year. Chubb would already go ahead of all of them. 

 

That's exactly the point I was making. Clearing those players out makes Chubb a lock for the 2nd/3rd next year if things continue to go well. 

Edited by MoonBlaster
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Wish I'd gotten to this guy in time in the two leagues where he was still available after the Hyde trade. The term "league winner" gets thrown around waaaayyy to often, but picking up a top 10 RB for free after week 8 fits the bill pretty clearly (like David Johnson his rookie year, Beckham his rookie year). Could be a league winner and I'm mad I missed out.

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I'm so happy for this dude making an impact in the NFL after his college injury (don't look it up). Balling out on the Browns of all teams too. 

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