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Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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16 minutes ago, Proteus said:

Yes my friend. Losing a yard will mean different things for different settings. Like you, I will also be screwed out of 3 points and lose my matchup if this happens. Like you, I am only winning by 2. And like you, I will be right ******** pissed if this happens and right now this is the only way I could have ruined an otherwise great night of hanging on to...victory?

 

please someone wake me up when it’s over

That would definitely suck for both of us.  But I wouldn't worry about it if all of the stat tracking sites are saying 100 yards.  Are there any places that say he only gained 99?  

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16 minutes ago, jasonresno said:

For those of us  lucky to get through by more than the difference of a 100/yard bonus, you guys think he feasts next week?

 

I love Chubb's floor but I'm an underdog facing off against a pretty good team led by Mahomes. Is it crazy to consider benching Chubbs for the starter out of Williams/Ware (both on my bench). I'd be starting Zeke in my other spot.

At this point if Ware comes back next week, I wouldn't want to start either Ware or WIlliams because it could be a pretty even split.  The only way I even consider taking out Chubb is if Ware was still out and Williams had the backfield pretty much to himself.  Even then not sure I would sit Chubb for him.  

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Wow...some big time stress going on in here on that looming stat correction. My league scores 2 points as a 100 yard bonus. I’d much rather get beaten by a large margin than lose by 1 due to stat correction on meaningless bonus points.

 

I feel y’alls pain. FWIW, I haven’t seen any stat correction in my league...yet.

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To those who just chimed in like me:

 

The real stat in question is if Chubb loses 1 yard, which is .1 point....... not 1 point. 

 

Just wanted to clarify. And yes, I know most the people stressing out play in 100 yard bonus leagues. 

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I can't check my FF stuff from work, are we still worried about Chubb losing the 1 yard? I guess no news is good news.

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I mentioned this in the Week 15 Stat Corrections thread as well...

 

Out of curiosity, I checked the complete play-by-play game log for the Cleveland--Denver game...and Chubb only has 99 yards when you manually add up the yardage for all of his carries. According to the game log and manual checking, Chubb was at 101 yards and then on his last carry, was credited with -2. So there is a phantom yard not accounted for.

 

Here is every carry he had, according to the game log from Pro Football Reference, in order from 1st quarter to 4th quarter:

1, 3, 2, 5, 12, 0, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 40, 2, 2, 9, 3, 1, -2

Add that all together and you get 20 carries for 99 yards. 

 

Something is amiss with him being credited with 100 yards, so there may be a stat correction by Thursday morning. Either they drop him down to 99 yards, or give him an extra yard on one of the other carries during the game. If they do nothing, that makes zero sense because then there remains a phantom yard. 

 

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18 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I mentioned this in the Week 15 Stat Corrections thread as well...

 

Out of curiosity, I checked the complete play-by-play game log for the Cleveland--Denver game...and Chubb only has 99 yards when you manually add up the yardage for all of his carries. According to the game log and manual checking, Chubb was at 101 yards and then on his last carry, was credited with -2. So there is a phantom yard not accounted for.

 

Here is every carry he had, according to the game log from Pro Football Reference, in order from 1st quarter to 4th quarter:

1, 3, 2, 5, 12, 0, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 40, 2, 2, 9, 3, 1, -2

Add that all together and you get 20 carries for 99 yards. 

 

Something is amiss with him being credited with 100 yards, so there may be a stat correction by Thursday morning. Either they drop him down to 99 yards, or give him an extra yard on one of the other carries during the game. If they do nothing, that makes zero sense because then there remains a phantom yard. 

 

 

Correction, he is at 100 yards even. There was a 3 yard carry he had where there was a penalty and I thought that was wiped out...but the yardage stands.

And alternatively, there was a 2 yard carry (the one I just listed in bold red above) that was wiped out due to a defensive penalty.

 

So his actual yardage looks like this:
1, 3, 2, 5, 12, 0, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 3, 3, 1, 40, 2, 9, 3, 1, -2 (which equals 100 yards)

 

Edited by Corleone

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20 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

Something is amiss with him being credited with 100 yards, so there may be a stat correction by Thursday morning. Either they drop him down to 99 yards, or give him an extra yard on one of the other carries during the game. If they do nothing, that makes zero sense because then there remains a phantom yard. 

 

 

Whoever does the stat corrections for yahoo has Chubb and REALLY needed the bonus last week. :lol:

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Anyways, hes @home vs the bengals, he should easily surpass 10 or 15 points in ppr... feed the MAN!!

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Its early, but what are we thinking his auction value will be next year? Seems like he was fairly dependent on breaking big runs and TDs, otherwise he would get a ton of touches for 2-3 yards a pop. Do they need better lineman? Does the rumored hiring of McCarthy hurt him?

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26 minutes ago, nromn said:

Its early, but what are we thinking his auction value will be next year? Seems like he was fairly dependent on breaking big runs and TDs, otherwise he would get a ton of touches for 2-3 yards a pop. Do they need better lineman? Does the rumored hiring of McCarthy hurt him?

Every RB is dependent on big runs and TD's. Guys aren't getting 4+ yards on every carry. Otherwise teams can just march methodically down the field all game, every game. He was consistently producing yardage and TD's. A team can always improve, but I don't see any reason why he can't be a borderline RB1 next season. He already was one in 2018 and only got the starting job 6 or 7 weeks in.

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On 12/17/2018 at 1:26 PM, mverkruyse said:

You can also look at the official ESPN game log, and it shows that on the play in question the line of scrimmage was the 10-yard line, and that he lost 2 yards (which would mean that Denver would take over at the 12). However, on Denver's first play of the ensuing drive, they show them starting on the 13-yard line, which would imply that Chubb lost more than 2 yards.

 

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Okay, I know this is old, but this is the first time I've seen this post. 

 

You have to know how officials scorers in the booth credit yardage. For Chubb to have been credited with a 3yd loss with the LOS officially at the 10 yard line, the back point of the football would have had to be touching the hashmark that marks the 13 yard line. If it was not (even if it was merely an inch away from the 13 yard line), it is credited as a 2yd loss by the scorer and the ball placed at the 12. 

 

So here's the thing...because it was a failed 4th down attempt, the possession was flipped. For the official scorer to put the Denver drive starting at its own 12 yard line, the back point of the football would have to be, again, touching the actual hashmark that marks the 12 yard line. If it does not, then the scorer begins the drive at the 13 yard line. 

 

So what does this tell me? Having not watched the game, it tells me that when the refs spotted the football after Chubbs' failed 4th down attempt, they spotted it between the 12 and 13 yard lines with neither point touching either hashmark. So officially, he had a 2yd loss to the 12yd line, giving him (and obviously keeping him at) 100 yards for the day. But officially, the Denver drive also started at 13yd line. 

 

As a former sports writer who has covered many, many football games from the press box (just high school and college, no NFL), I can tell you that this kind of scenario occurs more than you realize :). 

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Sorry, double post. Please delete. 

Edited by Flyman75

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:45 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

Okay, I know this is old, but this is the first time I've seen this post. 

 

You have to know how officials scorers in the booth credit yardage. For Chubb to have been credited with a 3yd loss with the LOS officially at the 10 yard line, the back point of the football would have had to be touching the hashmark that marks the 13 yard line. If it was not (even if it was merely an inch away from the 13 yard line), it is credited as a 2yd loss by the scorer and the ball placed at the 12. 

 

So here's the thing...because it was a failed 4th down attempt, the possession was flipped. For the official scorer to put the Denver drive starting at its own 12 yard line, the back point of the football would have to be, again, touching the actual hashmark that marks the 12 yard line. If it does not, then the scorer begins the drive at the 13 yard line. 

 

So what does this tell me? Having not watched the game, it tells me that when the refs spotted the football after Chubbs' failed 4th down attempt, they spotted it between the 12 and 13 yard lines with neither point touching either hashmark. So officially, he had a 2yd loss to the 12yd line, giving him (and obviously keeping him at) 100 yards for the day. But officially, the Denver drive also started at 13yd line. 

 

As a former sports writer who has covered many, many football games from the press box (just high school and college, no NFL), I can tell you that this kind of scenario occurs more than you realize :). 

 

It's a bummer because the season is over and not as many people will read your post, but that's fantastic information and I really appreciate the follow-up!

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