the_dying_dream

Kerryon Johnson 2018 Outlook

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3 hours ago, irvnasty said:

 

Some similar prospects...

 

Montario Hardesty ( a much better prospect)

Jamaal Williams (a better prospect)

LeShun Daniels

LeVon Coleman

Mack Brown

Brian Hill (a better prospect)

Brandon Wilds

Ron Dayne

 

He's a straight line runner with no ability to cut or break tackles. He's no more useful to an NFL offense than are you or I. I hope he learned something beside football at Auburn.

 

Wouldnt go as low as you’re implying by some of these comparisons, but I agree that there’s some over-valuing in this thread.

 

27 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

But if he has vision, balance, and timing to the hole then maybe he can be Jordan Howard?  

 

Or Jeremy Langford?

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16 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Wouldnt go as low as you’re implying by some of these comparisons, but I agree that there’s some over-valuing in this thread.

 

 

Or Jeremy Langford?

 

Ha.  I honestly have no strong opinion on him right now.   Just saying that if you have the qualities of vision, balance, and timing to the hole (basically rb iq) the pure athletic traits don't matter as much. 

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4 hours ago, irvnasty said:

 

Some similar prospects...

 

Montario Hardesty ( a much better prospect)

Jamaal Williams (a better prospect)

LeShun Daniels

LeVon Coleman

Mack Brown

Brian Hill (a better prospect)

Brandon Wilds

Ron Dayne

 

He's a straight line runner with no ability to cut or break tackles. He's no more useful to an NFL offense than are you or I. I hope he learned something beside football at Auburn.

 

Smokingly bad take.

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Kerryon is a 3 down back. He can block and catch. If they feature him then they won't tip their hand (Riddick means pass, Blount or Zenner means run). I think Patricia will bring this over from the Patriots - the value of running in the red zone, and the value of having a versatile lead back so as to not tip your hand. 

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On 5/3/2018 at 12:58 PM, Fort4242 said:

Right now I would rank Johnson certainly behind these rookies, in no particular order:

Barkley

Freeman

Penny

Jones

Michel

Guice

 

I would rank him similarly to:

Chubb

Hines

Ballage

 

 

I rank Johnson similarly (PPR), which is why his value is rather limited.  Most folks are saying the same thing.  With Riddick and Blount locked into roles, Johnson's ceiling and floor look uninspiring.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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On 5/5/2018 at 2:34 AM, 96mnc said:

 

Whoa.  Zenner is the best back in the team but hasn't gotten a fair shot?  That's a strong statement Sternes.

 

I like it.

 

TL;DR version:  Yes.  I've said it for a couple years.  Easily the best back on the roster.  In the measurables and ability.  Every time he got serious run I liked what I saw.  I was really hopeful last season would be his chance and whether or not they were just flashes or he could be #1 or #2 back. 

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Wait, so Zenner is still there too?   I can't believe all four guys I can remember from last year are still on the roster.......plus two new guys we can't quite pin down to more than a part time role yet.     Instead of having the nut to just start from scratch and get a bellcow, they just made the fn committee bigger!  BRILLIANT!

 

 

 

 

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On 5/7/2018 at 9:48 AM, BrianM said:

Wait, so Zenner is still there too?   I can't believe all four guys I can remember from last year are still on the roster.......plus two new guys we can't quite pin down to more than a part time role yet.     Instead of having the nut to just start from scratch and get a bellcow, they just made the fn committee bigger!  BRILLIANT!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last year was THE year I thought we would actually do some evaluating in the backfield and figure out what we had, sort it out, and then go into the draft/FA with a clearer picture of what to add.  Instead, we did the same thing, with the same people, in the same way, and got the same results. 

 

AA

Riddick

Washington

Green

Zenner (we re-signed him.  He was a FA and we brought him back, saying he had a role in the offense! :o)

Blount (FA signing)

Johnson (Drafted)

Bawden (FB drafted)

 

With Bawden in the fold, they need to get rid of at least 3 of these names, and hopefully 4.  If anything, not figuring it out last year will hold back Johnson this year.

 

Edited by Sternes

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New coach, old players, cmon guys, is this really the year of Theo Riddick?

 

This guy was drafted in the second round as an RB usually those guys can grab the starting job unless they have a complete non-starter as coach like Derrick Henry did. Patricia is not a Mike Mularkey type and he was also just accused of sexual assault as a head coach. I'd say he's already on the hot seat and definitely has something to prove with his home grown guys, especially on a team like the Lions which hasnt been a good team even at their franchise peak.

 

LeGarrette Blount may vulture some TD but his weaknesses are obvious.

 

Wouldn't invest a crazy early round pick on him but I don't see how he doesnt have the most carries on the Lions for 2018-19 and starters always carry at least some value even in a semi-committee role.

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At the end of the day he’s still a Detroit Lions RB so temper expectations accordingly 

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3 hours ago, pushaZ said:

 

Wouldn't invest a crazy early round pick on him but I don't see how he doesnt have the most carries on the Lions for 2018-19 and starters always carry at least some value even in a semi-committee role.

 

That is exactly the thing.  With Riddick already gift wrapped all of the pass down and 2 minute work, and Blount poised to hog all the GL work, what "value" are you willing to give Johnson, especially in PPR?

 

Look, we all can say that Johnson might come out of nowhere to lead the league in yards, receptions and scores.  However, each of us only has a limited number of bets to place, and those who place the most successful bets wins their league.  I could be wrong, but it sure looks like Riddick and Blount are poised to sap alot of Johnson's potential production.

 

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4 hours ago, pushaZ said:

New coach, old players, cmon guys, is this really the year of Theo Riddick?

 

This guy was drafted in the second round as an RB usually those guys can grab the starting job unless they have a complete non-starter as coach like Derrick Henry did. Patricia is not a Mike Mularkey type and he was also just accused of sexual assault as a head coach. I'd say he's already on the hot seat and definitely has something to prove with his home grown guys, especially on a team like the Lions which hasnt been a good team even at their franchise peak.

 

LeGarrette Blount may vulture some TD but his weaknesses are obvious.

 

Wouldn't invest a crazy early round pick on him but I don't see how he doesnt have the most carries on the Lions for 2018-19 and starters always carry at least some value even in a semi-committee role.

 

I’d like to see the rookie perform, but I don’t think the Lions are the team conducive to promoting his production. Past three years, Riddick has been on the field for 42% of the snaps and has essentially been the lead back in snap count, no other Lions’ RB even close, this a measure of Riddick’s presence, trust by coaches, and potential usage. True Riddick’s snap-count is skewed by injured RBs and under-performing RBs, but the reality is the Lions are in the bottom 20% for running the ball so there’s really not a lot there regarding opportunity; the signs point south for the rookie.

 

While play-calling and Riddick’s usage could change, I don’t see it changing significantly to thrust KJo into the spotlight. Now compare the Lions and Riddick’s middling (but leading) field presence to mid to high and higher spotlight usage for RB dependency/feature RBs, e.g. Chicago/Howard 53%, Bills/Shady 65%, Steelers/Bell 82%;  not a stretch that KJo’s role will be made negligible by Riddick’s usage and Blount’s occasional usage, and possibly watered down further by the bench. Even when JBell and Bush shared the field it was a time share, and going back to 2011 Lions’ RBs shared the field with no RB getting the “lion’s” share. Will coaching staff modifications modify play-calling? Maybe. Like last year’s Riddick, Abdullah, Washington, Zenner, Tion Green, will everyone water down this soup? Maybe.

 

The argument might be made that KJo is a Round 2 pick, true. Then again, so was Abdullah.

 

2 hours ago, lolcopter said:

At the end of the day he’s still a Detroit Lions RB so temper expectations accordingly 

 

This 

 

53 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

That is exactly the thing.  With Riddick already gift wrapped all of the pass down and 2 minute work, and Blount poised to hog all the GL work, what "value" are you willing to give Johnson, especially in PPR?

 

Look, we all can say that Johnson might come out of nowhere to lead the league in yards, receptions and scores.  However, each of us only has a limited number of bets to place, and those who place the most successful bets wins their league.  I could be wrong, but it sure looks like Riddick and Blount are poised to sap alot of Johnson's potential production.

 

 

Odds are, you’re right.

 

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Theo Riddick is not good, he's never broken 500 yards rushing in his career, he's only broken 500 yards receiving once, he averages 3.4 ypc for his career. Sucks. One dimensional player would be on the practice squad for a lot of teams. Not worth a fantasy bench spot even.

 

LeGarrette Blount is 32 and is a one sided plow who has had one good season and who's on a one year contract.

 

Kerryon Johnson was traded up with the nos. 51 and 117 draft picks by a new coach and who has the local press saying he's the feature back. I don't see any argument that the chumps in front of him are anything but depth competition that is available from literally any team in the league. Not saying he's the GOAT or that this is an appealing team to be on, but would be stupid IMO to be questioning his starter status in May, how many times has that not worked out for the haters - same guys that were trashing Alvin Kamara as a third stringer last year.

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3 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Theo Riddick is not good, he's never broken 500 yards rushing in his career, he's only broken 500 yards receiving once, he averages 3.4 ypc for his career. Sucks. One dimensional player would be on the practice squad for a lot of teams. Not worth a fantasy bench spot even.

 

LeGarrette Blount is 32 and is a one sided plow who has had one good season and who's on a one year contract.

 

Kerryon Johnson was traded up with the nos. 51 and 117 draft picks by a new coach and who has the local press saying he's the feature back. I don't see any argument that the chumps in front of him are anything but depth competition that is available from literally any team in the league. Not saying he's the GOAT or that this is an appealing team to be on, but would be stupid IMO to be questioning his starter status in May, how many times has that not worked out for the haters - same guys that were trashing Alvin Kamara as a third stringer last year.

 

I don’t think it’s a question of KJo starting: he will start. The issue is, he’s starting as a Detroit Lion’s RB; KJo will start within an RBBC on a team that’s been a timeshare for the last ten years, and also a team that runs the ball less often than 75% of the league.

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4 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Theo Riddick is not good, he's never broken 500 yards rushing in his career, he's only broken 500 yards receiving once, he averages 3.4 ypc for his career. Sucks. One dimensional player would be on the practice squad for a lot of teams. Not worth a fantasy bench spot even.

 

LeGarrette Blount is 32 and is a one sided plow who has had one good season and who's on a one year contract.

 

Kerryon Johnson was traded up with the nos. 51 and 117 draft picks by a new coach and who has the local press saying he's the feature back. I don't see any argument that the chumps in front of him are anything but depth competition that is available from literally any team in the league. Not saying he's the GOAT or that this is an appealing team to be on, but would be stupid IMO to be questioning his starter status in May, how many times has that not worked out for the haters - same guys that were trashing Alvin Kamara as a third stringer last year.

 

Theo Riddick is being paid nearly four million a year, which is top 20 RB money.  The rest of the RB group is making five million combined.  They are stuck with him and that contract.  Riddick sucks as a RB, but is a very good pass catcher.  He isn't going anywhere, and there is no way they don't use him for pass catching and catch up mode.

 

Blount just got signed this year for two million.  That means the current staff brought him in.  Which means the staff will be using him.  It doesn't matter if it is just near the end zone, he will get work.  That is also some of the most valuable work for fantasy purposes, which cuts into Johnson's value.

 

Abdullah is still there to circulate.  Basically a crappier version of Riddick.  GM says he has a role on the team.

 

Washington will probably be cut, but still on the roster now.

 

Green can still be hid on the practice squad I believe, likely the case.

 

Zenner the team re-signed out of nowhere and Patricia convinced him he has role on the team; which muddies the picture further.

 

 

Detroit Lions rushing attempts

2017 - 363

2016 - 350

2015 - 354

2014 - 396

2013 - 445

2012 - 391

2011 - 356

2010 - 404

2009 - 409

2008 - 352

 

An average of 381.9

 

Since 1980, five Lions rookies have gotten more than 200 carries their first year.  Sims, Sanders, Jones, Smith, and LeShoure.  All of them had a MUCH clearer path to carries than Johnson.

 

The Lions used a committee last year.  Patricia was on a team that used a committee last year.  Patricia has said he prefers a committee.  Some of these bodies will have to be cut and moved, but I have a hard time believing Johnson can come in and take the job fresh out of camp.  Even if he is so good he convinces them he is the lead back, it won't happen week 1, it would probably take half the season for them to concede that.

 

If there is this much going on, I'd peg him around 100 carries, 120 max.  He is a 2nd year guy to target depending on what you see this year.  Blount, Washington, AA, Zenner, are all FA next year, and Riddick would be into his last year of his deal. Green is the only one I don't  know his contract status.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Sternes said:

Green can still be hid on the practice squad I believe, likely the case. [...] Green is the only one I don't  know his contract status.

 

Solid post this morning (clearer than my late late-night post). 

 

As for Green, the 3-year contract he signed last year was terminated; for fantasy purposes on the Lions, he’ll no longer absorb any snaps. Real-world, he might go practice-squad in Detroit, but he’s also eligible to be picked up by another team (that was impressed by his 3.9 rush average?).

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His dynasty ADP is absurd right now. RB33 behind the likes of Aaron Jones, Duke Johnson and some others. I don't really like him in redrafts because that backfield will get busy this season. 

 

Blount will be gone after this year. Abdullah will be gone after this year. Johnson will be making some noise in 2019 as an early down back. 

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5 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

Theo Riddick is being paid nearly four million a year, which is top 20 RB money.  The rest of the RB group is making five million combined.  They are stuck with him and that contract.

 

Blount just got signed this year for two million.  That means the current staff brought him in.  Which means the staff will be using him.

 

If there is this much going on, I'd peg him around 100 carries, 120 max.

You have plenty of solid counterpoints but I do take some issue with the ones above- for starters, a guy like LeGarrette Blount who basically lives on one year contracts, does that mean he is guaranteed work every year just because the "current regime" picked him? I think this is the last you see of Blount after 2018 and I would predict he needs a strong preseason to avoid weekly inactive status.

 

Theo Riddick with top 20 rb money from an old regime doesn't seem like enough incentive to feature a guy who gets 3.4 ypc, especially not from a QB who is entering his effective shelf life. If they want a strong defense they will need to pair it with a strong run game and some fresh life. Kerryon is one of the few players on that team who doesn't look like a tired retread.

 

ESPN's own conservative rookie metrics already show Kerryon Johnson at 137 projected carries, and that's before preseason kicks off and he hopefully impresses. Now it Kerryon doesn't perform preseason, I'm much more likely to agree with your analysis. But I haven't heard much in the way of argument from people who say he can't perform when given the chance.

 

My favorite time to draft is may because that's when the talented players can be had at discount prices while people are still questioning their usage against tired old retreads due to details like 5 million dollars in contract money. That argument doesn't hold up too well when it becomes obvious that one player is clearly better than the rest and the team needs to win games. Do you think Tyrod Taylor is going to be starting all year as well?

 

Not all the young guys pan out but at the no.

 90 pick in a 20 team league that I got Kerryon for yesterday, I'd say that's a may value despite some expectation tampering counterpoints.

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2 hours ago, pushaZ said:

You have plenty of solid counterpoints but I do take some issue with the ones above- for starters, a guy like LeGarrette Blount who basically lives on one year contracts, does that mean he is guaranteed work every year just because the "current regime" picked him? I think this is the last you see of Blount after 2018 and I would predict he needs a strong preseason to avoid weekly inactive status.

 

Theo Riddick with top 20 rb money from an old regime doesn't seem like enough incentive to feature a guy who gets 3.4 ypc, especially not from a QB who is entering his effective shelf life. If they want a strong defense they will need to pair it with a strong run game and some fresh life. Kerryon is one of the few players on that team who doesn't look like a tired retread.

 

ESPN's own conservative rookie metrics already show Kerryon Johnson at 137 projected carries, and that's before preseason kicks off and he hopefully impresses. Now it Kerryon doesn't perform preseason, I'm much more likely to agree with your analysis. But I haven't heard much in the way of argument from people who say he can't perform when given the chance.

 

My favorite time to draft is may because that's when the talented players can be had at discount prices while people are still questioning their usage against tired old retreads due to details like 5 million dollars in contract money. That argument doesn't hold up too well when it becomes obvious that one player is clearly better than the rest and the team needs to win games. Do you think Tyrod Taylor is going to be starting all year as well?

 

Not all the young guys pan out but at the no.

 90 pick in a 20 team league that I got Kerryon for yesterday, I'd say that's a may value despite some expectation tampering counterpoints.

 

If you think Blount will be inactive after they just got him, you are not looking at this the correct way.  There is zero chance they let him be inactive.  He has missed 4 games in the last five years. They didn't go out and pay him, on a 1 year/$2 million deal to sit on the bench. Guy might start sliding downhill soon, but he is 31 and there still is some tread on his tires.  Blount will likely get the goal line work which hurts Johnson in that regard.  He will also get carries here and there.  With Philly he got 10.8 carries a game.  Even if it goes down to 7 a game, that is a 1/3 of the lions attempts per game last year (22.8 a game).  I could also see him used to close out games.

 

I'm not saying Riddick is going to be featured, I'm saying he will eat into touches.  That is the problem with the entire situation, they have too many guys they feel they need to touch the ball.  They aren't going to sit $6,000,000 between him and Blount on the bench for a rookie based on a good preseason.  Riddick will get catch up work and will have runs sprinkled in to keep defenses honest.

 

Abdullah is still around and whining about his usage.  Washington and Zenner are still on the roster too.  I'm not sure what Tyrod Taylor has to do with Johnson's situation.  That is an awful comp.

 

137 projected carries is higher than mine, mine was based on a 1/3 of the carries. No one is saying he can't perform.  Even if you believe he is the second coming there is too much traffic in front of him.  I can't fathom them giving him the reins early enough to where he justifies picks in a redraft.  Dynasty nice value.

 

If you think Johnson is going to "carry" the team, more power to you.  Right now it is a pass first time carried by Stafford.  There is no reason to think Johnson is some otherworldly talent who can pick up short yardage better than Blount, pass catch better than Riddick, and is the second coming of Barry Sanders.  Pick 90 in a dynasty or a redraft?  Dynasty decent snag.  Redraft too high for me.  That translates into an 8th round pick in a standard league.  That would be ahead of where a guy like CJ Anderson goes, who only has to deal with one other competitor.  Not a mob.

 

 

Edited by Sternes

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Really starting to like this guy.  The changes made on the o-line will be night and day.  I think he may be the most well-rounded RB in the draft class after Barkley of course.  Still well worth the risk in the 6th or 7th round.

Edited by RMJ_12
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I didn't watch every Auburn game but I remember when I saw him play he was a man. You take notice for fantasy purposes when guys do that in the SEC. I just hope his value doesn't go too high. I love him for keeper potential, but being a rookie in a somewhat crowded backfield I'm not quite as high on him in redraft.

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On 5/13/2018 at 5:12 PM, Sternes said:

Blount will likely get the goal line work which hurts Johnson in that regard.

 

There is no reason to think Johnson is some otherworldly talent who can pick up short yardage better than Blount

I know this is a common opinion throughout the football world, but let's examine this for a second.

 

Last season in Philadelphia behind a top 3 offensive line:

 

Blount had 10 carries inside the 5 yard line for -7 yards and 1 TD.

 

Blount had 15 carries inside the 10 yard line for 4 yards and 1 TD.

 

Blount had 33 carries inside the 20 yard line for 59 yards and 2 TD's.

 

Blount was actually the worst goal line back in the league last year.

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3 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Really starting to like this guy.  The changes made on the o-line will be night and day.  I think he may be the most well-rounded RB in the draft class after Barkley of course.  Still well worth the risk in the 6th or 7th round.

That's the thing - the oline. 

Watching him at Auburn, he runs a bit like Bell - patient, almost gliding. He's got good vision and is a smooth runner, despite the upright tendency. 

If the line can open up holes, he'll have a very good year

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20 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

I know this is a common opinion throughout the football world, but let's examine this for a second.

 

Last season in Philadelphia behind a top 3 offensive line:

 

Blount had 10 carries inside the 5 yard line for -7 yards and 1 TD.

 

Blount had 15 carries inside the 10 yard line for 4 yards and 1 TD.

 

Blount had 33 carries inside the 20 yard line for 59 yards and 2 TD's.

 

Blount was actually the worst goal line back in the league last year.

 

 

While I can't argue with those numbers, why then did the Lions sign him?  There is no role on the roster other than GL or feature back for him.

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17 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

That's the thing - the oline. 

Watching him at Auburn, he runs a bit like Bell - patient, almost gliding. He's got good vision and is a smooth runner, despite the upright tendency. 

If the line can open up holes, he'll have a very good year

 

He isn't explosive with his first step.  He is weaker than Bell by a clear margin.  He is smaller.  His vision isn't that good.  He also falls into that dancing, double step BS every time behind the LOS instead of hitting a hole when it is there.  He is a discount version of Kevin Smith.

 

I don't like his tape, I don't like his measurables, I don't like how he is built for a RB they want to use as a feature guy, I don't like how he takes hits.  I'm not a fan.

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