the_dying_dream

Kerryon Johnson 2018 Outlook

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1 minute ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Fixed this for you.

Quite an assumption to make that he can score tds in that scenario lol

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Just now, pushaZ said:

Quite an assumption to make that he can score tds in that scenario lol

 

Check out Blount's performances on the Patriots.  Never-ever did he break out when the team needed him to.  He only broke out when the game was already teetering on the edge of a blow out.  He is not a goal line or short yardage back.  Brandon Jacobs is what everyone thinks Blount is but it's completely false.  Blount's inability to perform is going to open up the door for any other RB on the Lions.

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I don’t think Blount is great either, but Patricia loves him, they brought him in for a reason, and he’s going to get goal line carries, at least for part of the season (which is too bad, as I think one of Kerryon’s strengths is at the goal line, he’s got the knack). Riddick will be involved on third down and in the red zone, but most concerning is Abdullah. It’s hard to pinpoint his role, I could see it being anything from little-used backup who gets 2-3 touches a game all the way up to a strict rotation, where he gets one series and Kerryon gets another. He’s got his weaknesses, but he does a lot of things well too. It’s gonna shake out one way or the other as the season goes along, it’s just hard to know how right now, and it will be by the time most of us draft. Over the long haul I think he’s got it in him to be the best back Detroit’s had since Barry, but I feel like this first year could very well be a struggle.

 

Now, if injuries come into play he could have a great year, but that’s true of a lot of guys.

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2 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

I don’t think Blount is great either, but Patricia loves him, they brought him in for a reason, and he’s going to get goal line carries, at least for part of the season (which is too bad, as I think one of Kerryon’s strengths is at the goal line, he’s got the knack). Riddick will be involved on third down and in the red zone, but most concerning is Abdullah. It’s hard to pinpoint his role, I could see it being anything from little-used backup who gets 2-3 touches a game all the way up to a strict rotation, where he gets one series and Kerryon gets another. He’s got his weaknesses, but he does a lot of things well too. It’s gonna shake out one way or the other as the season goes along, it’s just hard to know how right now, and it will be by the time most of us draft. Over the long haul I think he’s got it in him to be the best back Detroit’s had since Barry, but I feel like this first year could very well be a struggle.

 

Now, if injuries come into play he could have a great year, but that’s true of a lot of guys.

Traded. Up. For. Kerryon.

 

Blount has

2 million.

 

Also, name one recent rookie rb who struggled, and then went on to be a great rb.

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1 minute ago, pushaZ said:

Traded. Up. For. Kerryon.

 

Blount has

2 million.

 

Also, name one recent rookie rb who struggled, and then went on to be a great rb.

 

Depends what you mean by "great".  Ajayi struggled at first, as did Melvin Gordon.  Gurley had a bad year after an injury shortened rookie year, although he flashed as a rookie.

 

 

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53 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Check out Blount's performances on the Patriots.  Never-ever did he break out when the team needed him to.  He only broke out when the game was already teetering on the edge of a blow out.  He is not a goal line or short yardage back.  Brandon Jacobs is what everyone thinks Blount is but it's completely false.  Blount's inability to perform is going to open up the door for any other RB on the Lions.

 

what are you talking about, blount had 18 TDs with the patriots, he was the goal line back on a team that ran more than any other at the goal line.  i don't even like blount as a player but give credit where credit is due

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Just now, oban14 said:

 

Depends what you mean by "great".  Ajayi struggled at first, as did Melvin Gordon.  Gurley had a bad year after an injury shortened rookie year, although he flashed as a rookie.

 

 

Ajayi is bad.

 

Gordon is probably your best example but his main issue was touchdowns, which are fluky.

 

Gurley was only bad because Jeff Fisher is made from soft serve vanilla ice cream.

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I'm in a ten team league, picking last, and 8 of the first 9 picks were RBs.  If this is how your league looks, the only way to go is WR/WR and try to get as many lottery ticket RBs as you can later.  That's what Kerryon is to me this year.

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3 minutes ago, oban14 said:

I'm in a ten team league, picking last, and 8 of the first 9 picks were RBs.  If this is how your league looks, the only way to go is WR/WR and try to get as many lottery ticket RBs as you can later.  That's what Kerryon is to me this year.

Agreed that he's a zero rb target.

 

Lottery ticket? To win the lottery you need 6 numbers to hit. All we need with Kerryon is faith that one or two of these rookie rbs will work.

 

Saquon? Check. Royce? Check. Who else? Penny? Ronald Jones? Give me Kerryon over all the rest.

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1 minute ago, Panthor said:

 

what are you talking about, blount had 18 TDs with the patriots, he was the goal line back on a team that ran more than any other at the goal line.  i don't even like blount as a player but give credit where credit is due

 

flash in the pan.  career stats stink.  I'd go on a limb and say his GL Efficiency numbers are abysmal.  Yet, we stare at how big he is and assume that he is a great short yard runner.  Watch him closer this year, never seen such a big guy get stopped so easily.  He has to be get up to wrecking ball speed to be super effective.

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3 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Traded. Up. For. Kerryon.

 

Blount has

2 million.

 

Also, name one recent rookie rb who struggled, and then went on to be a great rb.

I don’t think he’ll struggle necessarily, I phrased that poorly. I meant his situation will be a struggle for us. He’ll show well when he gets a chance, but he won’t take the fantasy world by storm because of his usage, barring injury.

 

Others who had poor/average fantasy rookie years: Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Melvin Gordon, Frank Gore, Thurman Thomas, Lesean McCoy, OJ Simpson, Devonta Freeman, Michael Turner, Ahman Green, Walter Payton, Arian Foster, etc... It happens all the time.

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6 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

I don’t think he’ll struggle necessarily, I phrased that poorly. I meant his situation will be a struggle for us. He’ll show well when he gets a chance, but he won’t take the fantasy world by storm because of his usage, barring injury.

 

Others who had poor/average fantasy rookie years: Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Melvin Gordon, Frank Gore, Thurman Thomas, Lesean McCoy, OJ Simpson, Devonta Freeman, Michael Turner, Ahman Green, Walter Payton, Arian Foster, etc... It happens all the time.

Lol I'll give you that I don't know about OJs fantasy stats... Impressive list.

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7 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

flash in the pan.  career stats stink.  I'd go on a limb and say his GL Efficiency numbers are abysmal.  Yet, we stare at how big he is and assume that he is a great short yard runner.  Watch him closer this year, never seen such a big guy get stopped so easily.  He has to be get up to wrecking ball speed to be super effective.

 

career 4.4 ypc, roughly, average of 5.6td a season and that includes an injury year where he only played 5 games.  give the guy his due, he is a nfl rb capable of being good when given opportunity in the right situation.  stop trying to make it sound like he is trash.  and like i said i don't even like him as a player but your take is what is abysmal

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20 minutes ago, oban14 said:

 

Depends what you mean by "great".  Ajayi struggled at first, as did Melvin Gordon.  Gurley had a bad year after an injury shortened rookie year, although he flashed as a rookie.

 

 

Did you just put Ajayi next to the word great or was that an accident?

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Just now, Panthor said:

 

career 4.4 ypc, roughly, average of 5.6td a season and that includes an injury year where he only played 5 games.  give the guy his due, he is a nfl rb capable of being good when given opportunity in the right situation.  stop trying to make it sound like he is trash.  and like i said i don't even like him as a player but your take is what is abysmal

 

Sweet TD average, especially when it is completely blown up by an outlier of a season.  Granted you can't ignore the 18TD season, but take that out and you have yourself a 4TD / Season average.  Great...that is a bit better than Ameer Abdullah.

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6 hours ago, DaBirds12 said:

For the record Laurence Maroney was NOT a very productive back. Never had a 1000 yard season, was never able to reach 10 or more TDs. If you want to sell me on Belicheck’s lineage you have to give me a better example than Maroney.

Well if you extrapolate his productivity over 350 carries in a season, he would have been. ?

 

Yeah, you’re right. I recall Maroney being a top 2 round pick one yearwho promptly flopped. I thought that had been based on a productive season. Obviously I remembered that wrong.  Ironic, Maroney is yet another example of Belichek not giving an RB 200 carries.  I pretty much blew that comparison.

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7 hours ago, Spyplane said:

I have KJ but I will say that Matt Patricia coached Blount the year he had 18TD's. That's note worthy. Writing off Blount without seeing the offense under the bright lights is not a good idea.

I mean, not really... Patricia was the DC, it would be a stretch to say he "coached" a running back.  Also, Blount's career outside of that one year has been more or less forgettable.  Picking one single season from a guy's career to use as an example, while he was with one of the best organizations in the world of sports, is a dangerous game.

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I just can't find the appeal unless some guys get moved or cut at RB

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19 hours ago, Fierylady said:

I don’t think Blount is great either, but Patricia loves him, they brought him in for a reason, and he’s going to get goal line carries, at least for part of the season (which is too bad, as I think one of Kerryon’s strengths is at the goal line, he’s got the knack). Riddick will be involved on third down and in the red zone, but most concerning is Abdullah. It’s hard to pinpoint his role, I could see it being anything from little-used backup who gets 2-3 touches a game all the way up to a strict rotation, where he gets one series and Kerryon gets another. He’s got his weaknesses, but he does a lot of things well too. It’s gonna shake out one way or the other as the season goes along, it’s just hard to know how right now, and it will be by the time most of us draft. Over the long haul I think he’s got it in him to be the best back Detroit’s had since Barry, but I feel like this first year could very well be a struggle.

 

Now, if injuries come into play he could have a great year, but that’s true of a lot of guys.

That's not much of a compliment....who was the next best back the Lions have had since Barry?  James Stewart? 

 

I don't know if Patricia loves Blount, but I imagine that they brought him in because the Lions are traditionally pathetic at running the football, and he was an improvement over what had been on their roster in terms of a back that can run the ball. 

 

I am rooting for Johnson to succeed, but I am skeptical based on years of ineptitude at the running back position.  I've read this story before about a RB who was going to be the "answer" for the Lions.

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52 minutes ago, pduce242424 said:

That's not much of a compliment....who was the next best back the Lions have had since Barry?  James Stewart? 

 

I don't know if Patricia loves Blount, but I imagine that they brought him in because the Lions are traditionally pathetic at running the football, and he was an improvement over what had been on their roster in terms of a back that can run the ball. 

 

I am rooting for Johnson to succeed, but I am skeptical based on years of ineptitude at the running back position.  I've read this story before about a RB who was going to be the "answer" for the Lions.

Oh I hear you, as a Lions fans it's been a long slog, and yeah, Stewart was probably our best. But we're only traditionally inept if you arbitrarily draw the line after Barry. If you include him or Billy Sims etc, we've had a good running game before, it's just been awhile. I don't think our recent-ish history precludes us from having a good running game.  If you take that mind set, you miss out on a guy like David Johnson, who also went to a team with a poor recent history in their running game.

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20 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Ajayi is bad.

 

Gordon is probably your best example but his main issue was touchdowns, which are fluky.

 

Gurley was only bad because Jeff Fisher is made from soft serve vanilla ice cream.

(beep...beep...beep...beep)

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35 minutes ago, psygolf said:

(beep...beep...beep...beep)

K bro we'll see in week 8 if I'm stupid or not for liking this guy.

 

How many people have played football before? And theres a few crap examples...

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1 hour ago, Fierylady said:

Oh I hear you, as a Lions fans it's been a long slog, and yeah, Stewart was probably our best. But we're only traditionally inept if you arbitrarily draw the line after Barry. If you include him or Billy Sims etc, we've had a good running game before, it's just been awhile. I don't think our recent-ish history precludes us from having a good running game.  If you take that mind set, you miss out on a guy like David Johnson, who also went to a team with a poor recent history in their running game.

I'm not saying that they should continue to look for an answer...I'm saying that they have been terrible for the last 20 years at finding a solution.  And, in my opinion as a Lions fan, Barry was such a phenomenal back because he put up incredible numbers with a mediocre line. 

 

You could miss out on David Johnson, but you also don't make the mistake of drafting Javid Best, or Abdullah, or Joique Bell, or Reggie Bush, or fill in the blank....I say when it comes to Lions RBs, I'd draft in another direction for someone safer, unless it's a late round flyer that won't hurt you.

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10 minutes ago, pduce242424 said:

I'm not saying that they should continue to look for an answer...I'm saying that they have been terrible for the last 20 years at finding a solution.  And, in my opinion as a Lions fan, Barry was such a phenomenal back because he put up incredible numbers with a mediocre line. 

 

You could miss out on David Johnson, but you also don't make the mistake of drafting Javid Best, or Abdullah, or Joique Bell, or Reggie Bush, or fill in the blank....I say when it comes to Lions RBs, I'd draft in another direction for someone safer, unless it's a late round flyer that won't hurt you.

Well we're in agreement there for this year anyway. My point in saying I liked him long term was more for dynasty leagues, etc.. I do like his the potential for his career as a Lion, but yeah, this year I think will be rough (barring injury).

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15 minutes ago, pduce242424 said:

I'm not saying that they should continue to look for an answer...I'm saying that they have been terrible for the last 20 years at finding a solution.  And, in my opinion as a Lions fan, Barry was such a phenomenal back because he put up incredible numbers with a mediocre line. 

 

You could miss out on David Johnson, but you also don't make the mistake of drafting Javid Best, or Abdullah, or Joique Bell, or Reggie Bush, or fill in the blank....I say when it comes to Lions RBs, I'd draft in another direction for someone safer, unless it's a late round flyer that won't hurt you.

Jahvid Best would have been great if not for concussions. Joique Bell was a plodder when he came out of his mother's womb

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