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Lamar Miller 2018 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I would say it's probably because Mixon's ceiling is theoretically much higher.  We've kind of already seen what Miller is at this point, specifically in a featured, workhorse role.

I suppose I’d agree with some of that. Though, I’m mot sure we’ve necessarily seen Miller’s  ceiling yet.

 

We were all excited about Miller when he went to Houston for a reason. He was explosive in Miami. Then he bulked up in Houston and lost the explosion. Now he’s at his lowest playing weight in years, which should theoretically help him regain that explosion that we were all excited about in the first place. On top of that, with a healthy Watson slinging the ball downfield to Hopkins and Fuller, and always a threat to run himself, Miller should have plenty of room to operate underneath both rushing and receiving. And with Foreman likely out he’ll have virtually no competition for snaps.

 

All things considered, 2018 might be the year we see his ceiling.

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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Lamar is officially my favorite player this year. Just figured everyone would want to know.

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Funny how the forum lights up when Mixon sheds some weight, but Miller does the same thing and crickets.

 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texas-sports-nation/texans/article/Texans-RB-Lamar-Miller-looking-leaner-quicker-13111675.php

 

Because he did the same thing last offseason, then disappointed. 

 

Miller is an RB1 this year IMO. Glad he's been available in the 5th rd of high-stakes 12-team drafts.

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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I suppose I’d agree with some of that. Though, I’m mot sure we’ve necessarily seen Miller’s  ceiling yet.

 

We were all excited about Miller when he went to Houston for a reason. He was explosive in Miami. Then he bulked up in Houston and lost the explosion. Now he’s at his lowest playing weight in years, which should theoretically help him regain that explosion that we were all excited about in the first place. On top of that, with a healthy Watson slinging the ball downfield to Hopkins and Fuller, and always a threat to run himself, Miller should have plenty of room to operate underneath both rushing and receiving. And with Foreman likely out he’ll have virtually no competition for snaps.

 

All things considered, 2018 might be the year we see his ceiling.

 

Miller bulked up before his last season in MIA as well. People like to focus on narratives from a single season instead of looking at multiple seasons. This is the second straight offseason of Miller losing weight after 2 straight offseasons of him gaining weight.

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Many of those same people will be pissed at McKinnon in 2018.

 

Yeah, because they erroneously think he'll bust in SF. They'll be bitter for sure.

 

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34 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

Lamar is officially my favorite player this year. Just figured everyone would want to know.

You'll learn to hate him if you own him. He's at his best with Watson drawing attention but he still sucks even with him at QB. Falls down on initial contact and sometimes with no contact. He has no vision and regularly runs into the backs of lineman. He neuteralizes his own speed by simply falling down because he's expecting to get hit. When no hit comes, he's leaning to far forward and falls down.

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I completely get the Miller dread, one of the least fun fantasy RBs to own. But at some point you have to play with your head, not your heart. With the volume he figures to get, in what should be an explosive offense with Watson at the helm, he’s a virtual lock for RB2 numbers at least, no? At a time when “bellcow” RBs are scarce, Miller is one that nobody seems to want.  A boring RB2 is still an RB2.

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1 minute ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I completely get the Miller dread, one of the least fun fantasy RBs to own. But at some point you have to play with your head, not your heart. With the volume he figures to get, in what should be an explosive offense with Watson at the helm, he’s a virtual lock for RB2 numbers at least, no? At a time when “bellcow” RBs are scarce, Miller is one that nobody seems to want.  A boring RB2 is still an RB2.

 

RB2 is his floor...top-16 the last 4 seasons, now with the best offense he's had, plenty of positive game script coming and nonexistent competition for carries. 

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No reason not to draft Lamar in the 5th/6th round. Why draft guys like Penny, Rojo, and Guice over him? Those guys are in WORSE situations and have very low chances of being a 3 down back or of even getting the majority of the carries in some instances. 

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1 hour ago, FavreCo said:

You'll learn to hate him if you own him. He's at his best with Watson drawing attention but he still sucks even with him at QB. Falls down on initial contact and sometimes with no contact. He has no vision and regularly runs into the backs of lineman. He neuteralizes his own speed by simply falling down because he's expecting to get hit. When no hit comes, he's leaning to far forward and falls down.

 

I've had him a few years now in a keeper.

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1 hour ago, FavreCo said:

You'll learn to hate him if you own him. He's at his best with Watson drawing attention but he still sucks even with him at QB. Falls down on initial contact and sometimes with no contact. He has no vision and regularly runs into the backs of lineman. He neuteralizes his own speed by simply falling down because he's expecting to get hit. When no hit comes, he's leaning to far forward and falls down.

I agree that his apparent fear of contact at times is frustrating. However, the dude is going in the 5th, a likely bellcow, and likely on one of the best offenses. I’d consider him in the 3rd. Yes please in the 5th.

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Miller is a very unusual fantasy commodity indeed. It seems most agree that he’s a pretty good bet for RB2 numbers which is a very valuable, and necessary fantasy piece. But since many of us expected RB1 numbers in the past, our disappointment has somehow turned into fantasy resentment, which has affected our ability to accurately assess and accept his actual value for what it truly is, which is actually  pretty good. We’re all happy to draft players X, Y, and Z as our hopeful RB2, but when faced with “Mr. RB2” we want to look elsewhere. Odd. 

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2 hours ago, TPowell said:

No reason not to draft Lamar in the 5th/6th round. Why draft guys like Penny, Rojo, and Guice over him? Those guys are in WORSE situations and have very low chances of being a 3 down back or of even getting the majority of the carries in some instances. 

Because Lamar has been at best average the last 2 years?  I’ll take the rookie upside every time in rounds 4+

 

Lamar was an OK pass catcher last year.  He might be better off (solely) becoming the Texans 3rd down guy.

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9 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Because Lamar has been at best average the last 2 years?  I’ll take the rookie upside every time in rounds 4+

 

Lamar was an OK pass catcher last year.  He might be better off (solely) becoming the Texans 3rd down guy.

 

He's been a top 20 RB last two years on often bad offenses. I just like the whole Texans offense this year tbh and think Lamar puts it all together this year. 

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28 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Miller is a very unusual fantasy commodity indeed. It seems most agree that he’s a pretty good bet for RB2 numbers which is a very valuable, and necessary fantasy piece. But since many of us expected RB1 numbers in the past, our disappointment has somehow turned into fantasy resentment, which has affected our ability to accurately assess and accept his actual value for what it truly is, which is actually  pretty good. We’re all happy to draft players X, Y, and Z as our hopeful RB2, but when faced with “Mr. RB2” we want to look elsewhere. Odd. 

Here’s Millers stats

 

Yards per attempt:

       2014, 15, 16, 17

         (5.1, 4.5, 4.0, 3.7)

 

Longest carry:

      2014, 15, 16, 17

         (97, 85, 45, 21)

 

See a trend?  A decline every year for the past 4 years...  Last year he averaged 3.7, and his longest run was 21 yards.  That’s terrible!  If the ‘other guy’ wasn’t injured Miller probably wouldn’t be the starter.  In comparison Foreman’s was 4.2 and 39, which is better but not great.  It’s a wonder the Texans draft another RB...

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2 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Here’s Millers stats

 

Yards per attempt:

       2014, 15, 16, 17

         (5.1, 4.5, 4.0, 3.7)

 

Longest carry:

      2014, 15, 16, 17

         (97, 85, 45, 21)

 

See a trend?  A decline every year for the past 4 years...  Last year he averaged 3.7, and his longest run was 21 yards.  That’s terrible!  If the ‘other guy’ wasn’t injured Miller probably wouldn’t be the starter.  In comparison Foreman’s was 4.2 and 39, which is better but not great.  It’s a wonder the Texans draft another RB...

 

Miller is the starter, with as safe a three-down role as any RB not drafted in round one. Hate now, regret later...

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4 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Here’s Millers stats

 

Yards per attempt:

       2014, 15, 16, 17

         (5.1, 4.5, 4.0, 3.7)

 

Longest carry:

      2014, 15, 16, 17

         (97, 85, 45, 21)

 

See a trend?  A decline every year for the past 4 years...  Last year he averaged 3.7, and his longest run was 21 yards.  That’s terrible!  If the ‘other guy’ wasn’t injured Miller probably wouldn’t be the starter.  In comparison Foreman’s was 4.2 and 39, which is better but not great.  It’s a wonder the Texans draft another RB...

And he’s probably been an RB2 every one of those years on bad teams. If the trend continues, maybe he’s a low end RB2 this year. On the other hand, since this may be the best offense he’s ever been a part of, we could realistically see the trend reverse course a bit, no? A mid to high end RB2, or maybe even a low end RB1 is possible? 

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2 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Miller is the starter, with as safe a three-down role as any RB not drafted in round one. Hate now, regret later...

The best thing I can say about Miller is he’s cheep, but Freeman is going 12 spots later.  

 

Also, Mark Ingram is the same price as Miller and I’d take him all day over Miller.

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3 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

The best thing I can say about Miller is he’s cheep, but Freeman is going 12 spots later.  

 

Also, Mark Ingram is the same price as Miller and I’d take him all day over Miller.

I don’t know about that. I think Freeman and Ingram are better RBs than Miller, but Miller’s usage, volume, and consistency might see him finish ahead of those two. 

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4 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I don’t know about that. I think Freeman and Ingram are better RBs than Miller, but Miller’s usage, volume, and consistency might see him finish ahead of those two. 

Looking at the stats, Miller most closely resembles Gore... who lost his starting job.

 

Millers stats in 2018 might resemble Ingram, but who would you want in the fantasy playoffs?  It has to be Ingram by a landslide...

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Just now, seanismorris said:

Looking at the stats, Miller most closely resembles Gore... who lost his starting job.

 

Millers stats in 2018 might resemble Ingram, but who would you want in the fantasy playoffs?  It has to be Ingram by a landslide...

How could you possibly know that now?

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10 hours ago, seanismorris said:

The best thing I can say about Miller is he’s cheep, but Freeman is going 12 spots later.  

 

Also, Mark Ingram is the same price as Miller and I’d take him all day over Miller.

 

Good luck with taking 12 games of the suspended PED user facing at best a timeshare with Kamara over 16 games of Miller.

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10 hours ago, seanismorris said:

Looking at the stats, Miller most closely resembles Gore... who lost his starting job.

 

Millers stats in 2018 might resemble Ingram, but who would you want in the fantasy playoffs?  It has to be Ingram by a landslide...

 

Nope. Ingram was being phased out of GL carries as the year went on (only 1 carry inside the 10 in NO final 5 games c/w 7 for Kamara courtesy of Silva), and now has refused to come to OTAs, and been suspended for PEDs. All for a coach notorious for needing little excuse for going away from him. 

 

Miller >> Ingram. This isn't 2017.

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Miller's ADP is enough value alone to draft him almost all the time. You get a starter on a team with an improved line that can make the Texans by game-script run the ball more- for a 4th or 5th round pick. 

If you have one of the 7-10th picks in a 12 ppr redraft you can stack your receivers and pick up Lamar for cheap. Love him this year- just make sure you pick up Foreman a round early as a safe bet for one of the best handcuffs this year.

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