Rolling Thunder

Lamar Miller 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

32 minutes ago, devaster said:

Foreman coming back and eating into Miller's carries this season is extremely unlikely. People need to stop saying it like it is a sure thing. It is far from that. Achilles injuries are very difficult to come back from and still end the careers of athletes.

 

Blue hasn't stolen a significant share of snaps or touches yet. And lucked into a GL TD in week 1 because the offense went hurry up in the RZ after a completion. If Blue failed to punch it in they would have brought Miller in on the next play.

 

I think Houston's offense has started slow, but they will improve.

 

I don't understand why folks keeping talking about Foreman. 

 

Crazy talk he contributes anything this year.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, kidsgotsoul said:

 

This is such lazy analysis.

 

Miller outsnaps Blue with 77% of total offensive snaps through the first two weeks. Yes the TD vulture in week 1 sucks but Miller still has double the amount of red zone touches Blue has gotten.

 

Foreman is a non-factor this season. I don’t understand why people keep bringing him up like he’s going to return mid season from a terrible injury for athletes and ruin Miller’s value. 

 

A lot of doomsday projecting from one of the top rushers in the league right now getting tons of opportunity.

I've watched chunks of both games as a Miller owner and Blue is getting way too many snaps in the redzone for my liking. If that trend continues, then his TD upside is capped. That along with Watson's rushing ability.

 

You call it lazy, I call it facts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, GriffeySwag said:

I've watched chunks of both games as a Miller owner and Blue is getting way too many snaps in the redzone for my liking. If that trend continues, then his TD upside is capped. That along with Watson's rushing ability.

 

You call it lazy, I call it facts.

6 red zone rushes for Miller vs 1 for Blue.

 

Are you confused?

  • Like 4
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

I don't understand why folks keeping talking about Foreman. 

 

Crazy talk he contributes anything this year.

Is it crazy spank?  I’ve been holding him in one redraft.   

 

Tell me why u say dis...

Edited by Impreza178

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Impreza178 said:

Is it crazy spank?  I’ve been holding him in one redraft.   

 

"The length of time to allow full activity after Achilles tendon repair is generally thought to be four to six months.4-6 The 11 months needed to return to play as a professional football player seems considerably longer. However, there is a major difference between allowing full activity and returning to play in the NFL. Even when the typical patient is allowed to participate in full activity, it does not mean that he or she is adequately rehabilitated to perform at maximal efforts. Studies to determine maximal improvement after surgical treatment are lacking in the orthopedic literature."

 

"Furthermore, in the reviewed 21 NFL skill players who returned to play, there were significant decreases in games played per season (11.67 games per year pre-injury versus 6.17 games per year postinjury) when averaged over the three seasons before the injury and the three seasons after the injury.3 There were also decreases averaging nearly 50% in power ratings of the returning players for the three seasons after the injury compared to the three seasons before the injury. These data indicate that even in players able to return to their former level of play, the quality of play may suffer permanently."

 

There's more factual data presented here:  http://lermagazine.com/article/return-to-football-after-achilles-tendon-rupture

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More evidence: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000224126/article/achilles-tendon-tear-a-death-knell-for-running-backs

 

"As recently as a decade ago, a complete Achilles tendon tear was a death sentence for the NFL's speed-reliant skill-position players.

 

Advanced surgical techniques and accelerated rehab schedules have allowed players such as Demaryius Thomas and Leon Hall to regain their pre-injury explosiveness. Terrell Suggs even made it back to game action less than six months after surgery.

 

Post-injury success remains elusive for one position, however. Our research concludes that no running back ever has recaptured sustained pre-injury form after rupturing an Achilles tendon. Perhaps it's because the position relies so heavily on a combination of speed, cutting ability and physicality."

 

Edited by theSPANKER
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some players have definitely come back, but RB remains far less likely. There is no guarantee Foreman even plays like his pre-injury form either as Spank has noted.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Miller has been pretty good as a rusher these past 2 games especially with a below average offensive line. Main problem is his lack of TD potential and involvement in the passing game that really frustrates fantasy owners. I still think he can have a slight positive regression in both those departments as the season continues.

 

I get the frustration of his low ceiling, but in most drafts Miller was going anywhere from pick 40-60, which equates to being treated as a RB2. So far he is doing better than backs who where drafted around the same range like Alex Collins, Lesean Mccoy, Derrick Henry. Be patient and if he remains healthy, Miller should at least return value, even if his final season stats may not be mind boggling.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty happy with him so far, he's ran well, and the lack of TD's don't worry me because it's a 2 game sample. If you're going by what we've seen so far he's also projected for 1440 yards from scrimmage this year. The lack of involvement in the passing game is frustrating, but I think he'll have some games with 30+ receiving yards sprinkled in. This guy was going for scraps in drafts and before Thursday's game he was RB4 in rushing totals. He's not a guy who's going to win you a season single handedly, but he's as reliable as they come for RB's, especially at the discount he went for. 

Edited by SITG
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who watchrd the game? I watched most of it but did not see his touchdown. Lots of opportunities but he didn't look very special to me. he's on my bench in PPR and admittedly I will be happy with 14 points from him every week.

Edited by Mikeyvegas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mikeyvegas said:

Who watchrd the game? I watched most of it but did not see his touchdown. Lots of opportunities but he didn't look very special to me. he's on my bench in PPR and admittedly I will be happy with 14 points from him every week.

Garbage time TD. Literally last play of game. About as garbage as they come.


What can you get for him in a trade?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

Garbage time TD. Literally last play of game. About as garbage as they come.


What can you get for him in a trade?

I'll take it. Miller has been consistent so far and got receptions this week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, timexsocialclub said:

10 carries. 10 yards.

11.4, 8, 11.6 pts in 1/2 PPR. He isn't as high-end RB2 as I would have liked, but he is borderline RB2 right now. Houston's offense looks like a mess. And they aren't winning games. I think it will take some time for the offense to really get going. Could be wrong though. He has no competition though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, devaster said:

11.4, 8, 11.6 pts in 1/2 PPR. He isn't as high-end RB2 as I would have liked, but he is borderline RB2 right now. Houston's offense looks like a mess. And they aren't winning games. I think it will take some time for the offense to really get going. Could be wrong though. He has no competition though.

This is the issue to me. I don't think the offense will be good enough for him to produce much more than a Flex in the future despite him being the lead back. I think game scripts will require them to throw a lot, leading to carries in the low teens. Also, while he doesn't have competition now, I'm not certain it will remain that way at this rate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, NBatum88 said:

Anyone watch the game? 10 carries for 10 yards? Does he just suck?

No. The OL and offensive play-calling suck.

 

edit: That being said, I'm not sure either of those see improvement. Right now Miller is still a quality low-end RB2.

Edited by devaster

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Watched the game since I am from NYC, and can't say I was impressed.  Trying to get rid of him is pretty difficult 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tough player to judge, I fully expect him to end up in the top 20 of running back scoring.  But with almost zero upside each game.  Teams will start guys like Bernard, Coleman, Clement for the upside potential, but they also have a bust potential. Where I expect Miller to be just average every week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Amari Cooper of Runningbacks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

The Amari Cooper of Runningbacks.

Couldn't be further from the truth. I'd be happy if I could slot Amari into my flex and get anything consistent from him, but I can't. Lamar is currently a steady RB2/flex that you never have to worry about. Unfortunately it doesn't look like he has any RB1 upside like many predicted before the season due to the return and emergence of Watson.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

20 minutes ago, devaster said:

Couldn't be further from the truth. I'd be happy if I could slot Amari into my flex and get anything consistent from him, but I can't. Lamar is currently a steady RB2/flex that you never have to worry about. Unfortunately it doesn't look like he has any RB1 upside like many predicted before the season due to the return and emergence of Watson.

 

29 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

Cooper is boom or bust, Lamar is decent floor with very limited upside. 

 

Technically, you both are right. Kind of.

 

I was moreso referencing the bigger picture and overall value coming into the season. Both, drafted as RB2/WR2 respectively with the potential for RB1/WR1 production but both failing to live up to that potential. But lets look further. Look at Miller's stats from 2017 and 2018. Pedestrian on a week to week basis. He hasnt scored more than 12 points in PPR in 11 out of his last 12 games. . These stats sound eerily similar to Cooper. Cooper has scored 11 or more points in just 5 out of his last 19 games.

 

Yes.....Miller seems to have a safer floor....somewhat. He's only averaging 7.8 ppg in PPR over his last 8 games. Yes, Blue took a bigger role in the close to last season but that's part of it. Overall, both of these guys are mediocre at best who owners tend to over value and over hype coming into the season...again which is why I tagged them together.

Edited by nonstopfan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...