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Fernando Romero 2018 Outlook

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FRo is a hold, man

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He can get swing and misses, and over half the balls put in play against him will be on the ground. Showed the ability to spot a ton of pitches today (was helped by a pitcher-friendly strike zone), mixed with some wildness. Eddie Rosario did rob what I believe would've been a homer in the 1st, so this game might've gone much different had that happened. Overall the upside is clearly there, but so is the downside. He does get in patches where he loses the zone or throws a cookie, but as a rookie with some control issues, that should be expected. 

 

Side note - A lot of people are enamored with this 92 mph changeup he's thrown a few times, but it'd probably more effective 88-90 mph. Change-ups tend to work better when they're a good 7-10 miles slower than a pitchers fastball. How effective that pitch becomes will likely key his long term value. A dude that can throw 97 with a plus slider and solid change up would be a handful. Excited either way, he's pretty fun to watch right now. 

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So what's the chances he stays up? His line seems pretty impressive, both in the box score and in terms of Brooksbaseball/PitchMix/Whiffs for the most part. Change-Up seems to be a suspect like is the case for so many pitching prospects, but his FA+SL combo seems pretty deadly. 

 

gonna watch both starts tonight. Looking at some metrics if I had to assume I'm going to strongly agree with the above: 

 

16 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Side note - A lot of people are enamored with this 92 mph changeup he's thrown a few times, but it'd probably more effective 88-90 mph. Change-ups tend to work better when they're a good 7-10 miles slower than a pitchers fastball. How effective that pitch becomes will likely key his long term value. A dude that can throw 97 with a plus slider and solid change up would be a handful. Excited either way, he's pretty fun to watch right now. 

 

He didn't throw the CH a lot comparatively according to his Brooks and it got the least whiffs comparatively so I would come (again, haven't watched him pitch) to the conclusion that he is trying to slow down that pitch but is still struggling to drop the velo enough while keeping the arm action the same. Just like any change-up, if he can keep it low-to-below and out of the middle, it should work well enough to round out his reporteriore to make him have mid-rotation upside. If the Change-Up can flash a bit better, at 97 the upside is fairly substantial. 

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Rookies who start hot like Romero are always interesting in redraft leagues - do you ride it out and hope that he has harnessed his talent at an early stage, or is now the time you look to sell-high? Question most readily applies in redrafts, if you have this guy in a keeper/dynasty the price is going to be high.

 

Some great comments in this thread, I agree with the general consensus that, health permitting, the biggest factor in Romero becoming a high end fantasy SP is the development of his changeup. It sounds like he's eager to learn/take instruction and emphasizing the development of that offering, so that's a good sign. The slider and fastball are flat out unfair as it is, if he can develop the changeup into even a league average pitch, he's got a heck of an arsenal. 

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I wish I was able to actually watch this start, but still, I'm pretty stoked with the results.  Yes, it was indeed against an extremely weak lineup, but he still dominated them overall regardless.  I'm actually tempted to start him against the Angels.  If he's on, it should be a fun game to watch with him facing off against Ohtani.

 

He seems like he's going to be a guy that's going to walk a few a game most of the time even just because of the movement on his pitches, but as long as he keeps them around that amount, it shouldn't be that much of an issue.  He's not giving up too many hits, which means most of those walks will be left stranded anyways.

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Weekly leagues people can breathe easier now with this 1st start of the week out of the way.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

FRo is a hold, man

 

2 hours ago, whyamiajetfan said:

no way im trading this guy..  that 97mph diving down and than that filthy slider... oufff!.  Might out perform Berrios

 

I caught 2 fish with 1 bait!!!

 

Fernando Ro.......dney, Minn

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God please just ONCE let me the the guy who catches fantasy lightning in a bottle...

 

Grabbed him in every league I'm in before his first start...giddy up!

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9 hours ago, taobball said:

So what's the chances he stays up? His line seems pretty impressive, both in the box score and in terms of Brooksbaseball/PitchMix/Whiffs for the most part. Change-Up seems to be a suspect like is the case for so many pitching prospects, but his FA+SL combo seems pretty deadly. 

 

gonna watch both starts tonight. Looking at some metrics if I had to assume I'm going to strongly agree with the above: 

 

 

He didn't throw the CH a lot comparatively according to his Brooks and it got the least whiffs comparatively so I would come (again, haven't watched him pitch) to the conclusion that he is trying to slow down that pitch but is still struggling to drop the velo enough while keeping the arm action the same. Just like any change-up, if he can keep it low-to-below and out of the middle, it should work well enough to round out his reporteriore to make him have mid-rotation upside. If the Change-Up can flash a bit better, at 97 the upside is fairly substantial. 

 

I know what you're saying.

 

To be truly effective, he needs to drop that changeup velocity to around his slider 86-90. However, I have a lot of faith that he will continue to develop it. From all accounts the Twins have one of the most unheralded changeup coaches in the league, Fernando Rodney. Think how Mariano taught the cutter. Rodney showed him the grip and got him throwing it in Spring Training. Berrios also helped. Now look at these PitchFx graphs:

 

&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=2&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=

&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=2&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=2&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=

&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=2&league=mlb&pnf=&zlpo=

 

That release point is pinpoint. I do not want him to strive for more velocity differences if it messes with the release point. Even if the velocity stays as is with the changeup (agreed less than perfect), you are looking at three pitches with very similar release point. The changeup and fastball have similar horizontal movement. The changeup and fastball have opposite movement than the slider. The slider and changeup have similar vertical movement. 

 

In the eyes of the batter:

- The starting point: Each pitch comes out at the same release point.

- Is it a fastball at 95-98+ mph with movement?

- Is it a slider at 86-90 mph with opposite movement than the fastball?

- Now under consideration; is it a changeup with a speed in between the slider and fastball, vastly different horizontal movement than the slider, and pretty different vertical movement from the fastball? Yikes.

 

Now in a perfect world, we are looking at that blue dot that's at the same speed as his top MPH slider, same vertical drop, and completely opposite horizontal movement. What in the freaking world. 

 

The changeup is a work in progress. The changeup already showcases as potentially filthy. We are looking at two absolutely filthy pitches and one with the promise to be filthy. You couldn't sell this guy for his potential worth right now, hold. Sell around mid-season if results continue if you're of mind to. 

 

Brooks is dangerously time consuming.

Edited by Fenamo
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Flashing a plus slider and being consistent with it are two different things.  A lot of pitchers flash a plus slider/curveball but few are consistent with it. 

 

This guy reminds me of Luis Castillo in a lot of ways. 

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18 minutes ago, B&F said:

Flashing a plus slider and being consistent with it are two different things.  A lot of pitchers flash a plus slider/curveball but few are consistent with it. 

 

This guy reminds me of Luis Castillo in a lot of ways. 

 

Care to elaborate? 

 

I would definitely take 2017 Luis Castillo for Romero's 2018 season -- 100 times out of 100. 

 

  • Luis Castillo's favorite secondary pitch is his changeup. Fernando's is his slider. 
  • Fernando's slider is averaging 87.1 MPH. Luis's was 84.8 in 2017 and is 82.1 in 2018.

 

Their underlying metrics are pretty similar thus far though. 

 

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31 minutes ago, Fenamo said:

 

Care to elaborate? 

 

I would definitely take 2017 Luis Castillo for Romero's 2018 season -- 100 times out of 100. 

 

  • Luis Castillo's favorite secondary pitch is his changeup. Fernando's is his slider. 
  • Fernando's slider is averaging 87.1 MPH. Luis's was 84.8 in 2017 and is 82.1 in 2018.

 

Their underlying metrics are pretty similar thus far though. 

 

 

They are similar in terms of expectations people have of them and for similar reasons.

 

Both have good fastballs.  Romero definitely has a better breaking pitch than Castillo.  Castillo the better changeup. Castillo's breaking pitch flashes good but isn't consistent.  I don't know how consistent Romero's slider really is.

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35 minutes ago, MJDrocks said:

Who's starting him tomorrow?

I am.  I know it's a rough matchup, but I'm rolling him out there every game until he makes me think otherwise.

 

If Romero is on tomorrow, it could be a really entertaining game to watch in a matchup between Romero and Ohtani.

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6 hours ago, MJDrocks said:

Who's starting him tomorrow?

 

I am too.

 

Weekly locks, no choice :rolleyes:

 

After his 1st start of the week, Im not complaining.

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The breakout continues (notice changeup). Thank you Fernando Rodney!

 

 

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Impressive kid, maybe even keeper quality down the line. Had to cut him today. The walks are just too excessive to be on a team that will win a league. That’s the knock on him, but the stuff is there 

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He reminds me a lot of Sean Newcomb as far as good stuff, wild control at times.  Really dialed in right now.

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Definitely his weakest start so far.  Watched his 5 innings, and while he deserves credit for being able to get himself out of constant jams, I wasn't overly impressed.  Maybe Ohtani pitching like he did in the same game didn't help, and obviously I still like Romero since he still managed to escape the game with decent numbers and has impressive stuff, but he is going to have to improve his command.  He's going to get lit up one of these games if he pitches like that again.

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37 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

He's about to implode for a few starts 

Now that his era has ballooned up to 0.54 it’s definitely trending that way

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