murraygd13

May Closer Thread 2018

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1 hour ago, thefamily79 said:

I recall some hopeful discussion among the fantasy community about Feliz closing in Houston but I think it was before last year.

 

You are right.  It was 2 years ago that Giles was removed from the closers role near the beginning of the year.   Feliz had good numbers and was brought up by the fantasy community because of that but never got in the mix of things.  Last year it was more about Devinski being next in line... 

Anyways, the main point to be taken is he has no MLB experience as a closer...    

Edited by knuckleheads
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7 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

You are right.  It was 2 years ago that Giles was removed from the closers role near the beginning of the year.   Feliz had good numbers and was brought up by the fantasy community because of that but never got in the mix of things.  Last year it was more about Devinski being next in line... 

Anyways, the main point to be taken is he has no MLB experience as a closer...    

So we really don't know who the spec add is? Feliz? Santana?

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28 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

So we really don't know who the spec add is? Feliz? Santana?

 

I don't think we do except that there are likely three candidates in Feliz, Santana and maybe Rodriguez.   I personally will pass on Feliz who has been pretty bad for 2 years now.  Santana seems to be the safest choice but Rodriguez is the guy with all the upside appeal.  However, he doesn't even have a career hold so not a lot to draw from. 

BTW since a major blowup early in the month Tyler Glasnow has been lights out.  (11.1 IP,  1 ER,  9 hits, 14 k's, 2 bb (one intentional)).    The Pirates can't have a lot of faith in him yet but who knows if he keeps it up... 

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So with Gibbons comments on Oh Sunday and his recent performance, as the best guy in the pen, I am dropping all TOR guys and grabbing Oh, gotta read the writing on the wall right?

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10 minutes ago, CharlesHustle said:

So with Gibbons comments on Oh Sunday and his recent performance, as the best guy in the pen, I am dropping all TOR guys and grabbing Oh, gotta read the writing on the wall right?

Not if you look at yesterday’s usage.

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26 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Not if you look at yesterday’s usage.

 

I have found the words matter more than usage in these situation, at least IMO based on the past few years

 

I own Oh in 3 leagues, Tepera in 1

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Why did he pitch Tepera again in the ninth and use Oh for multi-innings?

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Matchup

Oh faces top of the order(Hopkins, Santana, Franco, Altherr), Tepera was left with bottom

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11 minutes ago, Pap said:

Matchup

Oh faces top of the order(Hopkins, Santana, Franco, Altherr), Tepera was left with bottom

BUt Tepera in the ninth two days in the row and getting it done, albeit not pretty, should indicate the role is his until he fails correct?

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10 hours ago, thefamily79 said:

I recall some hopeful discussion among the fantasy community about Feliz closing in Houston but I think it was before last year.

 

Before Houston acquired Giles, there were several of us hyping Feliz. He has ridiculous stuff, but he’s yet to put it all together. His issues are walks and homers. If he hits a stretch of good fortune on both, he could run off several saves and establish himself before the inevitable speed bumps. 

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15 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

BUt Tepera in the ninth two days in the row and getting it done, albeit not pretty, should indicate the role is his until he fails correct?

 

I think so, and I say this as someone who was forced to cut one of them on Saturday night and cut Tepera. 

 

I’d prefer to own Tepera, then Oh. And at this point I’m not sure you can confidently cut either. 

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9 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

Might have been mentioned back in this thread but Austin Pruitt's save today (5 2/3 IP) has got to be one of the longest ever.  With relievers starting and starting pitchers relieving perhaps will see a few more like this.  No fantasy relevance in 12 teamers but...

 

Re: the TB situation, I'm starting to wonder if we just don't end up seeing a 'closer' named.  With the way Cash is going more and more to matchups and metrics, and using an opener, we might see more of these games played "in reverse".  Bring a guy like Pruitt in mid-game and have him pitch the rest of the game if he's effective.  Sure there will be times where they'll need to make a pitching change and bring in a guy to get a more 'traditional' style save, but I just don't feel like they are going to set in stone that Alvarado or anyone is the 9th inning guy, and he will come in for any SV opportunity.  

 

There will be some saves to be had, but I think it'll be a frustrating situation for fantasy.  You'll have games where guys go multiple innings at the end, and other games where Alvarado is used earlier to get out tough parts of the lineup, and others where Cash purposely uses a different RP in the 9th other than Alvarado based on matchups.  I might be wrong, but I don't have a lot of interest in getting inside Cash's head right now on this one.

 

9 hours ago, crazyfingers711 said:

Pirates might be a great landing spot for Kelvin Herrera.  Just saying 

 

6 hours ago, cdd10 said:

So we really don't know who the spec add is? Feliz? Santana?

 

Re: the PIT situation, my take is to just go with recent usage, which would suggest Feliz gets the first crack.  But I think it's going to be a fluid situation where Hurdle will just put in whomever he thinks gives them the best shot to win each day, so it could be more of a committee.  And if they are serious about staying in the playoff picture, and Vazquez is out long term, you have to think they make some kind of deal for bullpen / closing help.  I'm not sure if they pay the price for Herrera or a more proven guy like that, as I could more so see them nickel and dimeing and picking up guys like Shane Greene or Soria or a combination of turds like that, and trying to mix and match.

 

I also wanted to give my two cents on Feliz, because he seems to be getting a pretty bad review on here.  I don't think he's great, but I think he's a lot better than what his reputation seems to be right now.  For most of last year he actually seemed to have kind of a semi cult following in the holds / RP thread due to his high K-rate and effectiveness early in the year.  That obviously kind of fell apart later in the year, but he's generally not been as bad as the ratios would make it seem.  Last year for example, he had a 5.63 ERA, but a 3.58 xFIP.  Very late in the year he had two absolutely horrible outings where he gave up 11 ER in 2.1 IP, which of course killed his ratios.  If you remove those two outings, his ERA was a much more respectable 3.75.  Same pattern has happened 2016, 2017, and so far in 2018 - FIP/xFIP that's in the low to mid 3's, but results are much worse.  Really good K-rate, fairly low LOB-rate.  Maybe it's a pattern for a reason, but he might also just be a better pitcher than his ratios have indicated up until now.  Astros also liked to use him in multiple innings, which doesn't help.

 

I'm not saying I think Feliz could be great or anything, but especially in H2H, if he was getting the 9th inning work, and he's relatively good with a very high K-rate, outside of a couple blow-ups a year, then he could be useful.  He might tank your ratios one week, but give you good numbers several others.  And there's always the chance he actually pitches up to his peripherals for once and improves.

 

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1 hour ago, CharlesHustle said:

So with Gibbons comments on Oh Sunday and his recent performance, as the best guy in the pen, I am dropping all TOR guys and grabbing Oh, gotta read the writing on the wall right?

 

55 minutes ago, Monkeyman74 said:

 

I have found the words matter more than usage in these situation, at least IMO based on the past few years

 

I own Oh in 3 leagues, Tepera in 1

 

Did Gibbons ever actually say Oh?  This is just my own speculation, but he likely said Oh would have gotten the shot on Saturday because Tepera was unavailable.  He had pitched the 22nd, 23rd, and 25th.  Day off/down on the 26th, and then available again on the 27th when he got the save.

 

Gibbons is not a new-school playing the metrics kind of guy.  He has everyone in innings-based roles and he sticks to them.  He won't be trying to bring Oh or anyone else in for the meat of the order or fireman or anything like that.  If Tepera is his 9th inning guy, which all recent usage says he is, then he will be no matter what part of the order comes up.  (Unless he blows it of course)

 

Don't try to get too cute with the Toronto situation.  Gibby is a simpleton and will stick with the roles he has until it stops working.  Oh hasn't been used in a lot of high leverage situations, and has only worked his way up to a setup role now because Clippard blew up multiple times.  Gibbons would love nothing more than to keep rolling out Axford in the 7th, Oh in the 8th, and Tepera in the 9th every night like clockwork.  I'm holding Tepera everywhere and not giving it a second thought until he starts blowing saves.

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^ ya if there was ever a team primed to have a comittee all season, it’s tampa.  

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If Vazquez were to miss time I'd expect it to be a committee with a slight bias towards Feliz 

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multiple teams have multiple relievers that could be the primary reliever for saves, but as long as saves is a category then people are going to want to roster these pitchers. this isn't strategy or skill in fantasy baseball, this is more guessing and luck.

 

 

 

encouraging for Vasquez owners.

 

 

Edited by SpecialFNK
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Also FWIW, when Vazquez blew a save earlier this year he blamed it on a sore ankle. Not saying Vazquez is lying about being hurt, but it's an interesting trend 

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So...he felt a pop in his elbow and lost feeling in his fingers, but is fine?

 

Uhhhh...

 

 

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2 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

So...he felt a pop in his elbow and lost feeling in his fingers, but is fine?

 

Uhhhh...

 

 

Basically that means your hero move of picking up Edgar Santana that you bragged about to all your relatives was all for naught...essentially....is what that means

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he'll be fine as in he'll live, but probably won't pitch too much this season

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1 minute ago, mdpharm23 said:

Basically that means your hero move of picking up Edgar Santana that you bragged about to all your relatives was all for naught...essentially....is what that means

 

No, I think it means he's gonna pitch once more before having TJ.

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Just now, kidtwentytwo said:

he'll be fine as in he'll live, but probably won't pitch too much this season

Oh ok so when he said he “expects to be available tomorrow”, he meant he expects to be available for living life and running errands, not playing baseball. I’m glad he’ll still be alive, thanks for clearing that up. 

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5 pages later of the Pirates hot mess at closer AND Vazquez is seemingly fine.  The highs and lows of Fantasy Baseball and life in the North in the Game of Saves.

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1 minute ago, mdpharm23 said:

Oh ok so when he said he “expects to be available tomorrow”, he meant he expects to be available for living life and running errands, not playing baseball. I’m glad he’ll still be alive, thanks for clearing that up. 

 

I think the recent comments by @kidtwentytwoand @89Topps are more along the lines of how we’ve seen these stories play out in the past. Players are always more confident and more optimistic about their health status than is usually reality. There’s also often a situation like Keynan Middleton where a guy thinks he can pitch through whatever arm/elbow injury, goes out and throws a few pitches, and has his Come to Jesus moment on the mound instead of in the training room. 

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19 hours ago, JFS179 said:

 

I cant really see anyone else in that pen closing over Alvarado now that they’re enamored with starting Romo. I know some of you guys think they’ll play arbitration games, but they didn’t with Colome. Why start now with Alvarado?

 

2 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Re: the TB situation, I'm starting to wonder if we just don't end up seeing a 'closer' named.  With the way Cash is going more and more to matchups and metrics, and using an opener, we might see more of these games played "in reverse".  Bring a guy like Pruitt in mid-game and have him pitch the rest of the game if he's effective.  Sure there will be times where they'll need to make a pitching change and bring in a guy to get a more 'traditional' style save, but I just don't feel like they are going to set in stone that Alvarado or anyone is the 9th inning guy, and he will come in for any SV opportunity.  

 

There will be some saves to be had, but I think it'll be a frustrating situation for fantasy.  You'll have games where guys go multiple innings at the end, and other games where Alvarado is used earlier to get out tough parts of the lineup, and others where Cash purposely uses a different RP in the 9th other than Alvarado based on matchups.  I might be wrong, but I don't have a lot of interest in getting inside Cash's head right now on this one.

 

 

I hadn’t really considered that when I posted yesterday. I was more frustrated with the arbitration argument when we’ve seen plenty of “smart” teams outright ignore arbitration standing in their naming of a closer over the years (Cleveland with Allen, Tampa with Colome, Doolittle briefly in Oakland before signing his long term deal).

 

Your point is a good one though - Tampa is trying all sorts of strategies with their pitching this year. I still think ultimately there will be a guy (like Colome prior to the trade), but the guy may never be anointed by Cash as his closer. 

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