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Marlon Mack 2018 Outlook

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12 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

Was it known that he would be a "clear starter"? The Rotoworld blurbs I recall kept talking about Indy having a committee. He showed flashes but so did a lot of other RBs. His bottom line was 3.9 YPC and he could not overtake an ancient Gore on the depth chart. 

 

Regarding the Luck point, remember Luck looked bad early in the year. Being on a Luck offense was not a selling point to people early in the year. 

 

Those injury replacements were examples of people who Mack may have been dropped for. Bernard was a RB1 when he started, as was Yeldon. Murray has been more up and down but was a solid pick up. If you needed to make room for them Mack was surely high on the list of potential drops.

 

It depends on context. Team needs, who is available on the wire, league settings, etc. If you had Walker, Engram, or Olsen and needed room to pick up Cook, Mack would certainly at least be someone you would consider dropping to make room.

 

Fantasy is a week to week game. That's what made Gio valuable. When Mixon got hurt Gio was a chance to get RB1 value for 2-4 weeks. It turned out to be the low end of that range but he was huge those weeks. Yeldon was not perceived as having that same upside, was considered a RB2 type, but he performed as a low end RB1 as well.

 

I didn't draft Mack so I have no personal story with him. I'm just explaining why he was dropped in 77% of leagues--and probably a higher share of active owners--and why it was a defensible move. 

 

Anybody who watched the colts or listened to their staff could tell this dude was clearly better than the trash in front of him. Even their owner was drinking his Kool aid. Plus, the other guys were bad. Just watch them. This part was easy to diagnose. 

 

Don't even know the point of arguing at this point anyway. 

 

This guy has been a stud since he back. If you own him, good for you, if you played against him the last two week? RIP. 

 

And one thing you are overlooking about ownership percentage is that the vast majority of leagues are very casual and never even get touched. 

 

 

Edited by RicFlair

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9 minutes ago, RicFlair said:

 

Anybody who watched the colts or listened to their staff could tell this dude was clearly better than the trash in front of him. Even their owner was drinking his Kool aid. Plus, the other guys were bad. Just watch them. This part was easy to diagnose. 

 

 

 

So are Aaron Jones and Drake yet they both remain mired in committees. So was Ajayi, as we see with Clement and Smallwood now, yet he was in a committee this year and last in Philly--where Reich was OC.

 

Casual owners kept his ownership higher than they would have been since they are less likely to update their drafted teams. 

 

Here are some RW blurbs prior to the last two weeks (trend: he was viewed as a flex type in a committee, not the surefire work horse RB2 with RB1 upside that he appears to be). I am using RW for obvious reasons but I bet you could do the same with the other sites that write blurbs. 

 

10/14: He now has 11 and 13 touches through two 2018 appearances. Mack shook off a first-drive dropped pass that was pick-sixed by Mo Claiborne to give the Colts' running game a jolt after it struggled mightily in the first five weeks. The backfield remains a timeshare situation, however, and Mack has passing-game limitations. He will be a boom-bust flex option in Week 7 versus Buffalo.

 

10/10: A nagging hamstring injury has sidelined Mack for much of the season, though it appears he'll suit up Sunday in East Rutherford. He'll be returning to a backfield committee featuring rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. Of the three, Hines commands the most fantasy attention.

 

10/8: Mack also practiced last week before sitting out the game against the Patriots. He should have a better shot to suit up this week, but at best he will be in a committee with Jordan Wilkins and Robert Turbin. Nyheim Hines is the player to roster in this backfield.

 

9/28: Mack is aiming to return Sunday after getting in a limited week of practice. Assuming that's the case, he'll play a committee role alongside rookies Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. Until a lead back emerges in Indy, this will be a situation to avoid.

 

9/16: He led the backfield with nine touches in the first half but ceded most of the second-half carries to rookie Jordan Wilkins. Mack looked healthy in his return from a hamstring injury but was outperformed by Wilkins, who averaged an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. As expected, the Colts’ backfield has devolved into a full-on timeshare between Mack, Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. It’s only going to get messier once goal-line back Robert Turbin returns from his four-game PED suspension. Mack gets the Eagles on the road in Week 3.

 

8/2: Per reporter Stephen Holder, it's varied "day to day" so far in camp. "What keeps them on their toes right now is that they have to learn everything," coach Frank Reich said. "But as we get more towards the games, we will be game-plan specific. ... Certain guys have a little better feel on gap scheme runs. Other runners, as you know, have a better feel for zone scheme runs and you just kind of gear guys towards what they’re best." That would be similar to the approach Reich's Eagles employed in 2017. Right now, the Colts "back to own" is to be determined. The only moment of summer clarity might come in the third preseason game.

 

Edited by Ace_King

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11 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

So are Aaron Jones and Drake yet they both remain mired in committees. So was Ajayi, as we see with Clement and Smallwood now, yet he was in a committee this year and last in Philly--where Reich was OC.

 

Casual owners kept his ownership higher than they would have been since they are less likely to update their drafted teams. 

 

Here are some RW blurbs prior to the last two weeks (trend: he was viewed as a flex type in a committee, not the surefire work horse RB2 with RB1 upside that he appears to be). I am using RW for obvious reasons but I bet you could do the same with the other sites that write blurbs. 

 

10/14: He now has 11 and 13 touches through two 2018 appearances. Mack shook off a first-drive dropped pass that was pick-sixed by Mo Claiborne to give the Colts' running game a jolt after it struggled mightily in the first five weeks. The backfield remains a timeshare situation, however, and Mack has passing-game limitations. He will be a boom-bust flex option in Week 7 versus Buffalo.

 

10/10: A nagging hamstring injury has sidelined Mack for much of the season, though it appears he'll suit up Sunday in East Rutherford. He'll be returning to a backfield committee featuring rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. Of the three, Hines commands the most fantasy attention.

 

10/8: Mack also practiced last week before sitting out the game against the Patriots. He should have a better shot to suit up this week, but at best he will be in a committee with Jordan Wilkins and Robert Turbin. Nyheim Hines is the player to roster in this backfield.

 

9/28: Mack is aiming to return Sunday after getting in a limited week of practice. Assuming that's the case, he'll play a committee role alongside rookies Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. Until a lead back emerges in Indy, this will be a situation to avoid.

 

9/16: He led the backfield with nine touches in the first half but ceded most of the second-half carries to rookie Jordan Wilkins. Mack looked healthy in his return from a hamstring injury but was outperformed by Wilkins, who averaged an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. As expected, the Colts’ backfield has devolved into a full-on timeshare between Mack, Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. It’s only going to get messier once goal-line back Robert Turbin returns from his four-game PED suspension. Mack gets the Eagles on the road in Week 3.

 

8/2: Per reporter Stephen Holder, it's varied "day to day" so far in camp. "What keeps them on their toes right now is that they have to learn everything," coach Frank Reich said. "But as we get more towards the games, we will be game-plan specific. ... Certain guys have a little better feel on gap scheme runs. Other runners, as you know, have a better feel for zone scheme runs and you just kind of gear guys towards what they’re best." That would be similar to the approach Reich's Eagles employed in 2017. Right now, the Colts "back to own" is to be determined. The only moment of summer clarity might come in the third preseason game.

 

 

Rotoworld blurbs should never be trusted haha. Unless it is about an injury. 

 

I've see. Some ridiculous things in these blurbs. 

 

And not sure what you mean about Drake, Ajayi, clement, Smallwood, Jones etc. Those situations aren't really similar to Mack's. 

Edited by RicFlair

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Just now, RicFlair said:

 

Rotoworld blurbs should never be trusted haha. Unless it is about an injury. 

 

I've see. Some ridiculous things in these blurbs. 

 

And not sure what you mean about Drake, Ajayi, clement, Smallwood, Jones etc. Those situations aren't really similar to Mack's. 

I assume he's saying those are backfields where the most talented guy hasn't managed to seize control tobecome the bellcow/workhorse/RB1 but remained a committee.

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11 minutes ago, borko said:

I assume he's saying those are backfields where the most talented guy hasn't managed to seize control tobecome the bellcow/workhorse/RB1 but remained a committee.

 

The difference is that the eagles have historically been an RBBC team under their current coach. Just the way their offense is. Also,  Ajayi was owned everywhere before he got hurt. Was a mid round pick. The other two guys were potential stashes. Who in that backfield is comparible to mack? If you had ajayi, he was owned. So if that's the comparison, then he wouldn't be dropped. 

 

Drake is clearly better than Gore. Should Drake have been dropped in a competitive 12 teamer? No, you'd stash him on your bench or spot start him until he got it going. if Mack is comparible to Drake, he shouldn't be dropped? 

 

How's Jones comparible to mack? Really don't see that one myself. Ty Monty and Williams were always going to get work. Williams was the guy the coaching staff wanted to succeed and start there. 

 

Edited by RicFlair

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Rotoworld is like a steak with a ton of fat. You have to develop a knack at being able to discern fact from opinion. The crowded backfield crap was an obvious attempt at inflating the value of the shiny new toys despite reports from actual decision makers to the contrary. 

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That schedule is so nice, i kind of hate myself for trading him away.... even though im stacked it wouldnt hurt to just keep him on the bench. Ugh!!!

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Well, like I said, I targeted this dude in the off-season, drafted him in all of my leagues, and held tight.  I play in leagues that are at least 12 teams deep with standard-size benches, like most people.

 

It boggles my mind to see people picking up Mack for free like it was nothing.  That’s why I have to question the legitimacy of your leagues if this actually occurred.  No offense, not trying to ruffle any feathers.  If you play in an 8 team league, I understand completely.

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19 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Well, like I said, I targeted this dude in the off-season, drafted him in all of my leagues, and held tight.  I play in leagues that are at least 12 teams deep with standard-size benches, like most people.

 

It boggles my mind to see people picking up Mack for free like it was nothing.  That’s why I have to question the legitimacy of your leagues if this actually occurred.  No offense, not trying to ruffle any feathers.  If you play in an 8 team league, I understand completely.

I drafted and held him as long as I could, after he came back and immediately got hurt, and Hines had a monster game, I figured at best he was a time share, and who knew if the dude could be healthy, I needed a bye covered, and I decided as a Gordon owner to hang onto Ekeler over Mack.  Oh well

 

Mack sure would be nice to have in as my RB3 right now

 

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1 hour ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Well, like I said, I targeted this dude in the off-season, drafted him in all of my leagues, and held tight.  I play in leagues that are at least 12 teams deep with standard-size benches, like most people.

 

It boggles my mind to see people picking up Mack for free like it was nothing.  That’s why I have to question the legitimacy of your leagues if this actually occurred.  No offense, not trying to ruffle any feathers.  If you play in an 8 team league, I understand completely.

I watched Mack last year and while he didn't have a great season, I saw his talent.  I targeted him in the draft this year but, someone snagged him before I could.  Surprisingly, that manager dropped him week 5 but at the time he needed a WR and had depth at RB.  I gambled and waited until he became a FA instead of claiming him off waivers.  That paid off, I got him for free and I couldn't be happier with the results.  This is a competitive 14 team league but, the other managers dropped the ball.

 

Indy improved their O-line, Luck is playing great, and Mack improved on some of his weak points from last season.  The ROS is looking good for him.

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1 hour ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Well, like I said, I targeted this dude in the off-season, drafted him in all of my leagues, and held tight.  I play in leagues that are at least 12 teams deep with standard-size benches, like most people.

 

It boggles my mind to see people picking up Mack for free like it was nothing.  That’s why I have to question the legitimacy of your leagues if this actually occurred.  No offense, not trying to ruffle any feathers.  If you play in an 8 team league, I understand completely.

Players get dropped all the time in redraft leagues with shallow benches. The original standard ESPN league was 10 teams with position limits of 5 for RB/WR and 7 bench slots. There isn't a lot of wiggle room. You often have to give up a valuable piece to chase a hot commodity or the chance at something. Kamara was available in a lot of leagues last season while he was buried behind Ingram and AD.

 

Mack was struggling through injury all season and then Hines emerges somewhat and there are 2-3 other RB's that are around. All the fantasy articles out there are speculating it becomes a RBBC when he comes back. Reich just came from Philly and the 3-headed RBBC there. A lot of people buy into those articles instead of digging deeper.

 

Just look at Peyton Barber. He was dropped a bunch. There was a ton of hype for Ronald Jones coming out of the bye with no real basis for it and Barber was dropped and Jones still wasn't starting and still looks terrible. Lamar Miller is another example. The looming threat of Foreman, despite there being no real news about his return. There was even hype about Blue for some reason speculating it will become a 50/50 split in Houston. Foreman could still be a threat, but coming back this early from an Achilles injury is difficult for a RB. Heck, we haven't ever seen a RB come back from an Achilles injury and have a good career. Although it hasn't happened to many high profile ones.

 

I bought into the Mack RBBC and waited on him for quite a bit. Glad I finally picked him up though.

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20 minutes ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

I found my James Conner replacement if Bell returns with Mack.

Chances are you will have them side by side!

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2 hours ago, CABLE87 said:

That schedule is so nice, i kind of hate myself for trading him away.... even though im stacked it wouldnt hurt to just keep him on the bench. Ugh!!!

Are we looking at the same schedule?  Looks pretty brutal, all stiff defenses the rest of the way.  

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1 minute ago, Rickydragon said:

Are we looking at the same schedule?  Looks pretty brutal, all stiff defenses the rest of the way.  

 

Jax 2x is a shell of its former self. Mia. Tenn will be tough. Hou another soft matchup. Thats 4 games at least that you can get some decent or elite points out of him. Dallas will be tough too.

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1 hour ago, CABLE87 said:

 

Jax 2x is a shell of its former self. Mia. Tenn will be tough. Hou another soft matchup. Thats 4 games at least that you can get some decent or elite points out of him. Dallas will be tough too.

 

Jags are still tough and Mia can’t stop a nose bleed on the ground right now. He can produce against the Titans. Houston is a tough matchup and Dallas will be as well but he’s the work horse and 3 down back he will be fine as long as he’s healthy.

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1 minute ago, BeGreat said:

 

Jags are still tough and Mia can’t stop a nose bleed on the ground right now. He can produce against the Titans. Houston is a tough matchup and Dallas will be as well but he’s the work horse and 3 down back he will be fine as long as he’s healthy.

 

Hou sucks against pass catching backs....

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4 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

Hou sucks against pass catching backs....

 

Perhaps the idea there is they would use Hines more often in that matchup.

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People in here are just jumping at stats. Other than the Jags and maybe a few other teams, no one is all that dominant against the run. No matter how bad or great a team is, there will always be a team ranked 1st, 2nd, etc. All I’m saying is that just because a team ranks 5th against the run, doesn’t mean they are a great run defense. Only team that really scares me is Jacksonville. Luck is an elite QB, Mack will see soft boxes with him.

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2 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

People in here are just jumping at stats. Other than the Jags and maybe a few other teams, no one is all that dominant against the run. No matter how bad or great a team is, there will always be a team ranked 1st, 2nd, etc. All I’m saying is that just because a team ranks 5th against the run, doesn’t mean they are a great run defense. Only team that really scares me is Jacksonville. Luck is an elite QB, Mack will see soft boxes with him.

 

JAX is at best middle-of-the-pack versus the run - strange example.  They’ve also allowed well over 100 points total in their last four games - which, needless to say, is awful.

Edited by BMcP

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