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SpecialFNK

2018 MLB Trade Rumors and Deadline Thread

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Just now, Cmilne23 said:

If I’m an MLB gm these days I’d aggressively move my pitching prospects. Their injury rate is through the roof.  Imagine what Cardinals could of likely got for Alex Reyes who has another lost year.  Brett Honeywell TJ, AJ Puk TJ, Ohtani (somewhat of a prospect at least a rookie is done pitching for who knows how long), the list goes on and on of pitching prospects hurt.

 

You're not wrong, but your analysis is incomplete, in that it's leaving out the immense profit when you do get a guy who pans out.  Nobody who clings desperately to young, cost-controllable pitching is unaware of the injury risk -- they've just correctly offset that by the fact that the ROI on the ones who make it exceeds that of even the highest tier bats, simply because starting pitching is so integral to team success.  If you keep moving those guys for rentals and end up with no high-upside pitching stock in your minors, you're certainly not going to be able to buy it at an affordable price later.

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2 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

After watching the Machado rental price skyrocket over the last week, this Phillies fan is happy that the club has (apparently) walked away.  Maybe Adonis Medina is a future star, maybe not, but what I do know is that the 2nd ranked prospect in the 5th ranked farm system is worth more than 2 months of Manny.  If I knew that Manny alone was enough to give them more than a puncher's chance in the playoffs, then I'd say pay whatever it takes, but I'd much rather cash that chip in to get a player who will contribute in 2019 or 2020 when the club is ready to truly contend.

 

There's nothing wrong in principle with taking a shot a year or two "early" on the rebuild schedule to see what happens, but once it became clear that Arrieta is just kind of a guy at this point in his career, that Hoskins is just a star right now and not a superstar, that the bullpen that we thought was going to be a strength is such a glaring weakness, etc. my interest in taking resources away from 2019 and beyond for one bite at the apple in 2018 is basically zero.

I wouldn't count out Philly just yet. To me, it still sounds like Baltimore is going to continue to try to drive up the return on Manny through leaks to various members of the media. We still haven't gotten the Heyman or Morosi tweet that goes something like "Baltimore has asked teams to submit their final offer on Machado and will make a decision shortly after." Until then we're still likely looking at several more tweets about which teams are in the lead and which prospects may be involved.

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54 minutes ago, herschel said:

Could be a Sox/Yanks bidding war we havent seen since the A-Rod days.

Sox have peanuts to offer compared to the Yanks.

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10 hours ago, panthers528 said:

Figured I'd send my 2 cents here from the other thread:

 

I have a strange feeling that Cash is about to pull out the proverbial stun gun and we will be seeing DeGrom in pinstripes.  See you all back here when it does happen.  Yanks need the arm way more than Machado and Cash knows this.  A splash needs to be made and this is exactly want Yankees fans want to see. We have enough pieces that Cash can whip together to get him.  Now.....sit back and get your popcorn ready.  If any get stuck on the way down......dont hesitate to grab a drink too.   Should be interesting.

I've felt this way too. I think Moustakas for 3B could be the backup plan for Machado. Possibly Duffy included as well. Then Andújar is centerpiece around a deal for an ace like DeGrom. 

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2 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Sox have peanuts to offer compared to the Yanks.

The Sox don't  need hitting 

They need a big time starter now that Erod has gone down for who knows how long . The only real reliable starter they have is Sale . Nunez and Holt can more than fill in  for Devers who has pretty much sucked all season . Swihart had come alive and Pearce has done a nice job . They could get a bat later  for peanuts if they need to . Starting pitching and another good arm out of the bullpen . The Red Sox don't need to panic . At least for now . 

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3 minutes ago, motown magic said:

The Sox don't  need hitting 

They need a big time starter now that Erod has gone down for who knows how long . The only real reliable starter they have is Sale . Nunez and Holt can more than fill in  for Devers who has pretty much sucked all season . Swihart had come alive and Pearce has done a nice job . They could get a bat later  for peanuts if they need to . Starting pitching and another good arm out of the bullpen . The Red Sox don't need to panic . At least for now . 

Yeah I know whats your point. We are talking about DeGrom. He is a pitcher.

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1 hour ago, herschel said:

Could be a Sox/Yanks bidding war we havent seen since the A-Rod days.

 

You mean the White Sox? They have a pretty loaded farm.  Red Sox have nothing down on the farm having given away those not promoted to the White Sox among other teams.

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My point is the Red Sox don't have enough to get Degrom and they won't go after MM

it is a deadline trade tread . 

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Manny is now a Dodger. My little birdies told me :)

 

That offense is going to be something with this addition. W.S. appearance now a lot more likely. Should be fun to watch.

 

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28 minutes ago, lavaman said:

Manny is now a Dodger. My little birdies told me :)

 

That offense is going to be something with this addition. W.S. appearance now a lot more likely. Should be fun to watch.

 

 

Everybody on the dodgers (pitchers to hitters) gets a fantasy value increase with this addition as well. Kudos to those that have a lot of fantasy stock in the Dodgers this season.

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It appears that I am the only one who has zero sources. I don't even know anyone who has sources.

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I am 0% convinced he's going to LA. Baltimore probably leaking all this stuff to get the other teams to budge. They've been playing this perfectly so far. 

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3 hours ago, DannyMcPot said:

I've felt this way too. I think Moustakas for 3B could be the backup plan for Machado. Possibly Duffy included as well. Then Andújar is centerpiece around a deal for an ace like DeGrom. 

 

Going to take a lot more than Andujar.  Andujar, Frazier, plus multiple other pieces.  

 

If he actually is put on the market a team like SD with their farm would get in the bidding, too.

 

I also think,  and it's jmo, that the nats should be open to dealing robles for him and resign Harper.

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Just now, 96mnc said:

 

Going to take a lot more than Andujar.  Andujar, Frazier, plus multiple other pieces.  

 

If he actually is put on the market a team like SD with their farm would get in the bidding, too.

Yes, that's what I meant. Andújar would be the centerpiece with Frazier, Sheffield, etc. added on. 

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3 hours ago, lavaman said:

Manny is now a Dodger. My little birdies told me :)

 

That offense is going to be something with this addition. W.S. appearance now a lot more likely. Should be fun to watch.

 

But who will they give up for him? Is it just prospects or current roster like Taylor, Turner, and/or Muncy?

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1 hour ago, pbjfb said:

But who will they give up for him? Is it just prospects or current roster like Taylor, Turner, and/or Muncy?

The Orioles would have zero interest in those players.  

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3 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Going to take a lot more than Andujar.  Andujar, Frazier, plus multiple other pieces.  

 

If he actually is put on the market a team like SD with their farm would get in the bidding, too.

 

I also think,  and it's jmo, that the nats should be open to dealing robles for him and resign Harper.

Nats probably aren't making the playoffs at this rate so why would they possibly trade Robles for Machado?  Harper getting traded is more likely than that.  

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So Diaz plus for Machado.  Sounds like the more money the O's cover, the better the package will be.  If it's only Diaz plus some lesser guys, it would be a pretty disappointing return even if he's an FA at the end of the season.  I would have thought the package would include Ruiz or Will Smith plus Gavin Lux.  We will see.

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2 hours ago, pbjfb said:

But who will they give up for him? Is it just prospects or current roster like Taylor, Turner, and/or Muncy?

 

Any one of them would be way WAY overpaying for Machado.   No team would give up a current active player for Machado.  They are contending and are looking to add, not subtract, from their roster.  Manny is a rental.  The Dodgers don't own him after their season ends.  Then in the off season the real Machado Sweepstakes starts.

 

As to who Baltimore gets there will probably be 2 or 3 prospects.  Yusniel Diaz will be one given he was mentioned in every trade rumor regarding the Dodgers.

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1 hour ago, IDGAFOS said:

Nats probably aren't making the playoffs at this rate so why would they possibly trade Robles for Machado?  Harper getting traded is more likely than that.  

 

I meant for DeGrom.

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4 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

So Diaz plus for Machado.  Sounds like the more money the O's cover, the better the package will be.  If it's only Diaz plus some lesser guys, it would be a pretty disappointing return even if he's an FA at the end of the season.  I would have thought the package would include Ruiz or Will Smith plus Gavin Lux.  We will see.

The Orioles typically hate taking on money in deals.  That's because LVP Chris Davis and Cy Cobb are tying up the available funds.

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Wow this is crazy talk:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/red-sox-trade-rumors-luxury-tax-starting-pitcher-rotation.html

 

Though the past 12 months in Major League Baseball have been largely punctuated by big-market clubs performing financial gymnastics to avoid crossing the $197MM luxury tax barrier (e.g. Giants, Yankees, Dodgers), the Red Sox are of a different mindset. Boston, of course, has already exceeded the $197MM threshold — so much so that the team is already on the hook for an extra 12 percent surtax on every dollar spent over $217MM (plus 20 percent on everything north of $197MM). But Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy tells Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Bostonthat the organization is willing, in the right scenario, for its luxury tax ledger to cross the $237MM mark that represents the most severe point of taxation.

As Drellich explains, the Sox are already in line to pay something in the vicinity of $10MM in luxury tax penalties based on their spending to date. The collective bargaining agreement, though, stipulates that a team exceeding the initial tax barrier by more than $40MM will not only pay a 42.5 percent surtax on every dollar spent beyond $237MM (in addition to the standard 20 percent), it’d also see its top pick in the following year’s draft pushed back 10 spots (provided that pick is not within the top six of the draft, which obviously will not be the case).

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According to MLBTR, Dustin May and Errol Robinson are possibly in included with Diaz in the Machado deal.

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