kidtwentytwo

Freddy Peralta 2018 Outlook

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On 6/25/2018 at 4:20 AM, aMediumPace said:

If he dominates again in his next start, how can they take him out of the rotation for jags like Suter?  

You want them to bump one of their best starters? Possibly even their best?

Of all the Brewers SP he has the best xFIP, best SIERA, and best K:BB ratio.

Not saying that Peralta shouldn't be in the rotation, but you might want to rethink your position regarding Suter.

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If you own him, it is going to be awfully hard for you to lose this year. You got the best pitcher in the game for free off the wire ( even scherzer gives up hits ). Only the Brewers can stop you

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7 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Looking at the game log he's still pretty fastball-heavy, but six of his 10 strikeouts were finished off with a curve.

 

Probably because no one can hit his fastball 

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44 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

 

 

“But what about his third pitch?!”, the fantasy experts yelled from behind their keyboards.

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Pollack warning of cherry bomb tendencies but thinks he should be less blowup prone than some of them (German, Velasquez) types.

 

Looked nasty last night though.

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5 hours ago, The Waker said:

 

“But what about his third pitch?!”, the fantasy experts yelled from behind their keyboards.

 

I don’t think the concept of a 3rd pitch was started or made prominent by FANTASY baseball. More from years of developing and scouting players. 

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He’s a really interesting guy to value, particularly in HTH leagues. Cons are pitch count and easy opp so far. Curious to see what trades he’s going for right now. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

I don’t think the concept of a 3rd pitch was started or made prominent by FANTASY baseball. More from years of developing and scouting players. 

 

Of course it’s important in real baseball.  I just think fantasy “experts” are more likely to get hung up on something like that and ignore other attributes that make up for it because they think it’s all the real scouts focus on.

 

This guy obviously has some other incredible trait on to make up for his lack of pitches and extremely high fastball percentage.  

 

The incredible 13K debut at Colorado is looking pretty legit at this point.  Teams have tape and advanced scouting (though not a ton yet) on him and he has still been unhittable last 2 games.  

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As an owner, I'm not the least bit concerned about whether or not he has a 3rd pitch. He's got a 15% sw strike rate thus far so hitters appear to have some difficulties picking up pitches. What concerns me and what I think may be more of a source of some bumps in the road is his command. His 3 outstanding performances all came against offenses in the bottom half of the league in bb %. His bb rate has been high throughout his career in the minors so I see him struggling some against more patient offenses.

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35 minutes ago, meh2 said:

As an owner, I'm not the least bit concerned about whether or not he has a 3rd pitch. 

 

Really? Not in the least? Can’t even conceive it as a potential problem?

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Or maybe 4 games isn't a large enough sample to draw any sweeping conclusions.  I think we can all (a) appreciate the greatness of his three great starts, (b) acknowledge that he had a clunker thrown in there as well, (c) note that the teams he's faced this season have wRC+ rankings of 28th, 20th, 16th, and 30th in MLB, and (d) recognize that, even with advanced scouting, it can take more than a handful of games to know how to game plan against an opposing pitcher.  He's an obvious strong buy in dynasty formats for the upside, but the third pitch weakness isn't one that teams are going to be able to jump on right away, and he hasn't faced any teams that we'd expect to test the totality of his arsenal.

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The lack of a 3rd pitch is not as big a problem as the super high fly ball tendencies (imo). Esp with his home digs.

-At least the 2nd! pitch flashed much better this time.

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17 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Really? Not in the least? Can’t even conceive it as a potential problem?

Down the road, yes, absolutely, but for this year I think he has enough “stuff” to maintain a nice k/9. If he keeps his walks in check I think he can be an sp5/6 type which would be plenty valuable in deeper leagues.

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I can't find the interview - but there was one where they asked Peralta about his fastball and he responded by saying his fastball moves in so many different ways it's not one pitch. It's true if you watch him - it'll move up on one pitch, then move in on the next.  He's throwing the same pitch, but he gets different movement out of it - makes him less accurate though, he misses the catchers spot quite a bit

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32 minutes ago, jahweedum said:

I can't find the interview - but there was one where they asked Peralta about his fastball and he responded by saying his fastball moves in so many different ways it's not one pitch. It's true if you watch him - it'll move up on one pitch, then move in on the next.  He's throwing the same pitch, but he gets different movement out of it - makes him less accurate though, he misses the catchers spot quite a bit

 

Blake Treinen pitches that way too and although he's a RP he's proven to be very hard to hit.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Or maybe 4 games isn't a large enough sample to draw any sweeping conclusions.  I think we can all (a) appreciate the greatness of his three great starts, (b) acknowledge that he had a clunker thrown in there as well, (c) note that the teams he's faced this season have wRC+ rankings of 28th, 20th, 16th, and 30th in MLB, and (d) recognize that, even with advanced scouting, it can take more than a handful of games to know how to game plan against an opposing pitcher.  He's an obvious strong buy in dynasty formats for the upside, but the third pitch weakness isn't one that teams are going to be able to jump on right away, and he hasn't faced any teams that we'd expect to test the totality of his arsenal.

And E) I think anyone with 2 eyeballs can see that on his worse day hes got night and day better stuff than Zach Davies who has the absolute most horrific “stuff” in mlb and his success is completely dependent on rocket liners finding gloves. 

Edited by Cmilne23
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Doubters in this thread are acting like he’s had Nick Pivetta or Caleb Smith type numbers.  

 

If any sexy big name prospect was doing what he’s doing we’d be talking about the next Kershaw.

 

If a fantasy expert can’t explain a player’s success then their first instinct is to doubt its legitimatecy.  That usually is the right instinct but we read the same things after the Colorado game and he’s gotten even better 

Edited by The Waker

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32 minutes ago, The Waker said:

If any sexy big name prospect was doing what he’s doing we’d be talking about the next Kershaw.

 

 

Anyone who anoints anyone as the next Kershaw after four starts is being foolish, even if they do end up being the next Kershaw. I understand that we all have to act quickly and get in on players before someone else does, but that doesn't mean we have to analyze things as if we have more certainty than we actually do. The urgency of the fantasy game doesn't have to skew our analytical skills.

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5 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

The lack of a 3rd pitch is not as big a problem as the super high fly ball tendencies (imo). Esp with his home digs.

-At least the 2nd! pitch flashed much better this time.

 

In this one, I thought maybe 3-4 of the fly balls out of 7 total fly outs were almost automatic straight up pop outs (SS, 2 CF,  maybe 1 to RF too, can't recall exactly). Also got 2 little league dribblers (P & 1B). I almost get the impression that he is a plus contact manager in addition to the plus plus strikeout ability because hitters just can't pick him up or square him up.

 

Let's investigate further by looking at every starting pitcher to pitch 20 innings this year:

 

-In his 22.2 MLB innings:

Soft: 20% (55/186)

Medium: 52.5% (13/186)

Hard: 27.5% (8/186)

Fly Ball %: 48.7% (176/186; of course Verlander is last)

IFFB%: 15.8% (18/186)

-Other stats including Minors:

Hits:  2017-AA = 38hits/63 innings; 2018-AAA = 16hits/32.1 innings (Away only); and 2018-MLB = 7hits/22 innings)

K/9: 2017-AA-12.86 K/9; 2018-AAA-12.81; and 2018-MLB 13.90

HR: 2017-AA-2HR in 63.2innings, 2018-1hr in 22.2 MLB innings and 2018-AAA- 1hr in 59 innings (it came during his 26.2 innings at Colorado Springs (6.5k ft, Coors 5.2k ft)).

 

-So we got a much shorter, more athletic Carter Capps that no one can pick up based on how he limits hits, prevents hard contact and his ability to miss bats. Misses bats by throwing a darting fastball (with lots of extension) all over the zone, but especially high which helps setup his curveball that he was burying yesterday. I don't know what to expect going forward, but I'll bet it takes the NL (sit vs WSH) until next year to figure him out.

Edited by Light Tower Power
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2 hours ago, The Waker said:

Doubters in this thread are acting like he’s had Nick Pivetta or Caleb Smith type numbers.  

 

If any sexy big name prospect was doing what he’s doing we’d be talking about the next Kershaw.

 

If a fantasy expert can’t explain a player’s success then their first instinct is to doubt its legitimatecy.  That usually is the right instinct but we read the same things after the Colorado game and he’s gotten even better 

I don't think you're fully grasping the problem of only having 2 pitches and being so fastball reliant. Its a legit problem long term, once teams have seen him previously. 

 

Why don't you go ahead and name some high end starting pitchers who have had sustained success using just 2 pitches? 

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That's true. He very well could develop another pitch over the off-season.

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15 minutes ago, cs3 said:

I don't think you're fully grasping the problem of only having 2 pitches and being so fastball reliant. Its a legit problem long term, once teams have seen him previously. 

 

Why don't you go ahead and name some high end starting pitchers who have had sustained success using just 2 pitches? 

 

I will when you find me a pitcher that’s done what he’s done in his first four starts.

 

Fangraphs has him throwing 3 anyway....  you can’t blame him for the fact that his fastball has been so dominant.  His fastball is not a normal fastball.  

 

Yes maybe its dumb to think he’s different and can “beat” the rules fantasy guys impose but he’s also pitching at a ridiculously high level that’s hard to find comparisons

Edited by The Waker

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I've only owned him for that one bad start. I hope I'm not the bad luck charm. 

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