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kidtwentytwo

Freddy Peralta 2018 Outlook

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Found it - Peralta himself on having just one pitch:

 

“It’s how I pitch,” said the 6-foot, 170-pound rookie. “I just have to locate my pitches, throw them in different locations.

“My fastball is not like one pitch. It moves a lot. Sometimes, it cuts (away from the hitter). Sometimes, it goes in. Sometimes, up. It’s not the same pitch.”

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16 minutes ago, jahweedum said:

Found it - Peralta himself on having just one pitch:

 

“It’s how I pitch,” said the 6-foot, 170-pound rookie. “I just have to locate my pitches, throw them in different locations.

“My fastball is not like one pitch. It moves a lot. Sometimes, it cuts (away from the hitter). Sometimes, it goes in. Sometimes, up. It’s not the same pitch.”

 

So if he stays up and performs well a lot of his fastballs will probably be reclassified, if the movements are intentional.  Suddenly instead of a lucky rookie with 1 pitch, we will have a phenom with a nasty cutter

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2 hours ago, The Waker said:

maybe its dumb to think he’s different and can “beat” the rules fantasy guys impose

That's the problem with your argument. It has nothing at all to do with 'fantasy guys' and everything to do with real life baseball, decades of past performances to compare, and actual pro scouts.

The fantasy game doesn't even matter.

 

 

As far as:

"I will when you find me a pitcher that’s done what he’s done in his first four starts"

 

Cmon, youre just dodging the question because ots exceedingly rare and you know there are very very few examples, and you dont want to dive into any actual analysis.  On the other hand, you really think its hard to find examples of rookies who had 3 good games in stretches of 4-5 starts? 

 

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6 hours ago, cs3 said:

I don't think you're fully grasping the problem of only having 2 pitches and being so fastball reliant. Its a legit problem long term, once teams have seen him previously. 

 

Why don't you go ahead and name some high end starting pitchers who have had sustained success using just 2 pitches? 

Not necessarily in disagreement with your larger point but for the first few years of his career Cole Hamels was almost strictly fastball/change-up.

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13 hours ago, cs3 said:

That's the problem with your argument. It has nothing at all to do with 'fantasy guys' and everything to do with real life baseball, decades of past performances to compare, and actual pro scouts.

The fantasy game doesn't even matter.

 

 

As far as:

"I will when you find me a pitcher that’s done what he’s done in his first four starts"

 

Cmon, youre just dodging the question because ots exceedingly rare and you know there are very very few examples, and you dont want to dive into any actual analysis.  On the other hand, you really think its hard to find examples of rookies who had 3 good games in stretches of 4-5 starts? 

 

 

Its unfair for you to put the burden on me and then call it a win when I don’t feel like doing the research.   And oh yea, he HAS A 3RD pitch.

 

And yes, i do think it’s very difficult for you to find other rookies that have been just as impressive in their first few starts.

 

And as to your first point, fantasy experts would have been laughing at Greg Maddux coming up.  All they know is the numbers and it’s hard for them to grasp/analyze other aspects of a player.

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Freddy's fun facts:

 

MLB K/9 = 13.90 (1/188 starters with 20+ innings)

 

AAA - 12.8 K/9 (Tied for second best K/9 of any starting pitcher with Josh James who are both behind Josh Staumont at 12.9 in the PCL)

AA - 12.9 K/9 (Lead all starting pitchers in the Southern League. In second place was Michael Kopech at 11.7)

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So is anyone itching to sell high?  If I could get a border line top 50 player for Peralta would it be worthwhile?  Just don't want Peralta to be Mengden part two.

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3 minutes ago, Magnus88 said:

So is anyone itching to sell high?  If I could get a border line top 50 player for Peralta would it be worthwhile?  Just don't want Peralta to be Mengden part two.

I’ve got several shares of him but I would part with all of them for a top 150 player. There’s very little chance you can get a borderline top 50 player unless you play in a league with Freddy’s mom.

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2 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I’ve got several shares of him but I would part with all of them for a top 150 player. There’s very little chance you can get a borderline top 50 player unless you play in a league with Freddy’s mom.

REALLY?  Even though three of his four starts have been ungodly great?  Are you expecting severe regression too?  If so I'd suspect it would be based on the lack of a plus offspeed pitch. 

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29 minutes ago, Magnus88 said:

REALLY?  Even though three of his four starts have been ungodly great?  Are you expecting severe regression too?  If so I'd suspect it would be based on the lack of a plus offspeed pitch. 

It's pretty rare for a rookie pitcher to have sustained success (like half of a season).  It can definitely happen  (Castillo for a 100 IP last year), but between the innings cap for a young guy and the odds it's not something to bet on.  Trading now while risky is likely a wise decision.

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21 hours ago, cs3 said:

That's the problem with your argument. It has nothing at all to do with 'fantasy guys' and everything to do with real life baseball, decades of past performances to compare, and actual pro scouts.

The fantasy game doesn't even matter.

 

 

As far as:

"I will when you find me a pitcher that’s done what he’s done in his first four starts"

 

Cmon, youre just dodging the question because ots exceedingly rare and you know there are very very few examples, and you dont want to dive into any actual analysis.  On the other hand, you really think its hard to find examples of rookies who had 3 good games in stretches of 4-5 starts? 

 

Strasburg first 9 starts as a rookie in 2010: 54 inn, 75K, 15BB, 3HR, 43Hits, and had an ERA of around 2.30 was the first one that came to mind. Funny the Nats had just as much trouble scoring runs then as they do now. He went 5-2 with 2 no decisions

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Yep, and Stras has continued his success in large part because he has 4 quality pitches. 

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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

I’ve got several shares of him but I would part with all of them for a top 150 player. There’s very little chance you can get a borderline top 50 player unless you play in a league with Freddy’s mom.

 

1 hour ago, Magnus88 said:

REALLY?  Even though three of his four starts have been ungodly great?  Are you expecting severe regression too?  If so I'd suspect it would be based on the lack of a plus offspeed pitch. 

Ya, I would trade Freddy (and basically any unproven rookie SP with only 5 MLB starts under his belt) in a heartbeat for a anything close to a top 50 player. The reality is that basically nobody is offering anything that good in a redraft, or even in most keeper leagues for that matter.  

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54 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Strasburg first 9 starts as a rookie in 2010: 54 inn, 75K, 15BB, 3HR, 43Hits, and had an ERA of around 2.30 was the first one that came to mind. Funny the Nats had just as much trouble scoring runs then as they do now. He went 5-2 with 2 no decisions

 

So Strasburg is who we could find.  I’ll take that.  

 

No one is saying he’s the next Sale.  But I think a top 30 pitcher ROS is not an insane hope 

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23 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Yep, and Stras has continued his success in large part because he has 4 quality pitches. 

What was his 4th pitch in 2010? All I can find is the basic three in fastball, curve, and changeup or did he develop one since then?

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He throws a slider now too, but just started using it in 2016. Only throwing it ~10% of the time this year.

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42 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

So Strasburg is who we could find.  I’ll take that.  

 

No one is saying he’s the next Sale.  But I think a top 30 pitcher ROS is not an insane hope 

No, that was just a single example. The point I was making is that there are tons of instances of rookie pitchers having dominant 4 game stretches. Its not uncommon at all. Small sample sizes of anything are easy to find. 

 

What it is very very difficult to find, is a large sample (like 300+ consecutive inngs or multiple seasons worth) of 2 pitch starting pitchers maintaining ace level production.

 

Top 30 SP ros is extremely optimistic. I would be shocked if he throws enough innings to pull that off even if his ratios are good enough.

 

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8 hours ago, thecomebackkid907 said:

Is there any possibility he gets sent down by way of a Jimmy Nelson return? 

 

There's a very real chance that Peralta gets sent down next week if Davies is back. 

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9 hours ago, thecomebackkid907 said:

Is there any possibility he gets sent down by way of a Jimmy Nelson return? 

That could be 6 to 8 weeks away yet, assuming no set-backs, which are always dicey in regards to shoulder stuff.

34 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

There's a very real chance that Peralta gets sent down next week if Davies is back. 

Yeah, it is possible. They won't boot Davies from rotation, even if they should. No days off until the break, so maybe they go to a 6 man?

It's so odd, the brewers staff is chalked solid with mediocrity, but they are pitching their butt's off right now--and pretty much have all year. Even with his obvious limitations (and regression coming) Freddy still should be taking the ball on turn in the rotation.

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41 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

There's a very real chance that Peralta gets sent down next week if Davies is back. 

During a playoff race?  I can't see it.  

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

During a playoff race?  I can't see it.  

 

I like Peralta. He seems to have some serious upside. But he's only had 3 good (great) starts in the majors. Davies has given the team 67 starts of sub-4.00 ERA pitching prior to this year. He's going to get a shot to bounce back. And Suter has a 3.60 ERA, .198 BAA over his past 30 days, and he's given the Brewers 152 innings of 3.97 ERA as a starter since the beginning of last year. So, will the Brewers look at Peralta and his upside based on a very small sample, or go with lesser talents who've given them a chance to win and have proven themselves to be competent major leaguers?

 

I think this Sunday is HUGE for Peralta. If he dominates, then it becomes extremely hard to send him down. But if he's wild and pitches poorly, it'll be easy enough for the Brewers to send him down until there's an injury. Just my two cents. 

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Brewers have so many guys who are just not quite good enough to have any sort of confidence in them continuing decency, but at same time not bad enough to boot from rotation.  Brewers got a tough to decision to make.  Always good to have rotation depth.  These things usually have a way of working themselves out when the hand is forced.

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Are any of the other non-Peralta starters a possibility to be traded in the next couple weeks?  I doubt they want to mess up a good thing while currently in 1st place , but if they have confidence in Peralta , maybe they have a need elsewhere. I don’t follow the Brew Crew so I don’t have an idea of any of their pitchers contract situations or likelihood of being dealt. 

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