The Czar

Jordan Lyles 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Freed from Colorado and in the San Diego Padres rotation now.

 

I just looked him up as he is putting up goose eggs on Colorado right now and there is some interesting stuff to pay attention to.

 

Velocity is up in the early going (some of that is working out of the pen) and the numbers seem to be following suit with an increased K/9. He is averaging over 94 mph on his fastball and he is a guy that used to work at 91-92. It is showing as a plus plus pitch at that velocity when it was being hit hard before.

 

It also looks like he is throwing the curve and changeup WAY WAY more than ever before.  Is he part of the pine tar curve revolution?

 

I don't know what we are looking at here, but he isn't profiling like the same old Jordan Lyles.  I don't know if he is going to go all Charlie Morton or not, but it might be time to watch and monitor.

Edited by The Czar
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you zoom out on the Brooks data, it looks like he's always had a 94-96 four-seamer in his bag, but began to lose it in the 2nd half last season:

 

image.png.d83aed1a353a3490e3b42278735e160a.png

 

So I'm not really seeing a Danny Duffy situation where he just adds velocity he never really had before.  Looks more like a guy who can't give you 150-200 IP of his peak velo, which probably describes a lot of back-end starters.  The change in pitch mix is interesting, and obviously moving from Coors to Petco helps.  Will watchlist him, but not really going to rush out to add until he shows a little more.

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im intrigued and adding

 

 

He was already on my watch-list coming into this game. Throwing his FB less than 45% of the time which is always exciting. Seemds like a 4 pitch guy to me. Has a mid 90s FB, 90mph Slider, his wipeout pitch is his curveball, and he is throwing a changeup 25%. His velocity was also up about 2MPH from his starter days. SwgStr% all the way to 10% this year. Improvements across the board so was watching him. He used to be a contact pitcher but now is trying to blow guys. This was all coming into today. But it gets better...

 

His changeup seemed to be overused not getting good results, so what did he do today? He throw it only 4 times, and relied more on his improved high velocity FB, wipeout Curve, and 90mph Slider. The results? Well you saw. I'm adding hoping this trend continues. 16Ks in 12 innings started so far this season with good ratios. Why not. Not saying he is a lock to be good, but there is potential here.

Edited by terminator10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Updated FIP is 2.21 and swgStr% is 13.3. Along with being a 3-4 pitch pitcher who has increased his velocity....playing in a good pitcher park....add him.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Big League Choo said:

Can anyone shed some light on his role with the Padres? Is he a starter now or is he just making spot starts?

 

 

Starting.  He took Bryan Mitchell’s spot in the rotation.  So it’s Lyles’s spot unless he turns back into Jordan Lyles.  

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much chatter on here about mr. Lyles. Can one the great minds of this fantasy forum weigh in? After looking at his fangraphs pages, small sample size, but there seems to be a lot to like here. @taobball

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 i was listening to that rockies start on the radio while i was working and by about the fourth inning i whipped out my phone and added him. haven't seen anything to change my mind

 

of course i'm in a deep enough league where nearly every SP is owned, so you have to hop in early if you're going to hop at all. but still

 

here's the requisite fangraphs frontpage article

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jordan-lyles-found-something-hes-never-had/

 

according to the chart in there, only mccullers jr throws a harder curveball than lyles among starters this year, and lyles' has more downward break

 

on the other hand, as the first commenter notes, the rockies lineup has actually been pretty bad lately. they're the same guys who just got blown up by freddy peralta in his big league debut two days before, and then the lyles one was on the road in petco on top of that

 

still, though. plenty of bad lineups out there and they don't make every pitcher look like this

 

Edited by wily mo
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whenever I see a high K9 with clean peripherals on the WW I add first and ask questions later. Obviously the BABIP is gonna rise but it's worth a roll of the dice, the WW is trash can city for pitching in my league.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just picked him up... y'all get ready to bail.

lol

 

Worth a gamble.

Edited by papasmurf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/17/2018 at 4:12 PM, Jimmymckrack said:

Not much chatter on here about mr. Lyles. Can one the great minds of this fantasy forum weigh in? After looking at his fangraphs pages, small sample size, but there seems to be a lot to like here. @taobball

Interested on the surface based on what he's done. Need to actually take more time out of my day to see him pitcha  few more times. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Velocity up. 

Pitch mix change.   More 4 seamers, fewer 2 seamers.

Excellent pitching coach.

 

The second point is the big one. 

 

I'm in (for now at least).

 

On the 3rd point, the pitching coach is as good as it gets.   Anytime a pitcher with some arm talent gets bought off the scrap heap I pay very close attention.

 

Pomeranz

Hand

Jesse Hahn

Tyson Ross (twice)

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Danskeren said:

Do we start tomorrow against PIT?

 

No reason not to the way he's pitching imo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@meh2 + @mavsfan23 asking “are you, should we, do we” start this guy posts, on game day has generally been allowed on these forums.  If you see a post you don't think belongs, report it and the moderating team will take care of it as they see fit.  Derailing a thread because you don't think posts belong (though maybe you had good intentions) doesn't help.  Report posts instead of bickering back and forth.  Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/15/2018 at 6:27 PM, terminator10 said:

Im intrigued and adding

 

 

He was already on my watch-list coming into this game. Throwing his FB less than 45% of the time which is always exciting. Seemds like a 4 pitch guy to me. Has a mid 90s FB, 90mph Slider, his wipeout pitch is his curveball, and he is throwing a changeup 25%. His velocity was also up about 2MPH from his starter days. SwgStr% all the way to 10% this year. Improvements across the board so was watching him. He used to be a contact pitcher but now is trying to blow guys. This was all coming into today. But it gets better...

 

Image result for grandpa simpson gif

  • Like 3
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Cubsfan22 said:

Just picked up after seeing another nice line from him. Anyone watch him pitch today?

 

Trick answer-- 

 

Did I watch his start today? No. Did I watch some tape on his previous starts today? Yup. 

 

And I really like what I see. More detail is probably necessary, but the essential point is that he's trying to do his best Charlie Morton impression. Maybe he just turns back into a pumpkin but he's not "getting Lucky" or anything like that. He seems to be executing really well and really legitimately. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably should have been yanked after the 2 out walk and 2 run homer.

 

That fell apart quickly. A shame.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.