Carlos Correa

Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

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22 minutes ago, tootallball said:

 

Good read. 

 

As noted in the comments, im surprised by  the present grading of the hit tool and the future grading. How he isn’t probably a future 65+ with his command of the strike zone and contact skills is a tad bonkers. 

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32 minutes ago, mcbane said:

 

Good read. 

 

As noted in the comments, im surprised by  the present grading of the hit tool and the future grading. How he isn’t probably a future 65+ with his command of the strike zone and contact skills is a tad bonkers. 

 

The article is a little confusing honestly. They acknowledge that his grades were conservative since he was so young, inexperienced, and far away to begin the season and that they need to be re-evaluated given his recent success.  Then they make this very similar comparison to a college kid who is years away from being on top 100 lists but grades out similarly. And then ends the article saying well Soto is in the bigs now so that just goes to show you how these two are miles apart. Weird: I read it all and got basically nothing useful out of it 

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12 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

The article is a little confusing honestly. They acknowledge that his grades were conservative since he was so young, inexperienced, and far away to begin the season and that they need to be re-evaluated given his recent success.  Then they make this very similar comparison to a college kid who is years away from being on top 100 lists but grades out similarly. And then ends the article saying well Soto is in the bigs now so that just goes to show you how these two are miles apart. Weird: I read it all and got basically nothing useful out of it 

 

Bruh, they got yo click doe.

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1 hour ago, tootallball said:

 

i must not know anything because I expected those grades to be a good deal higher.  Kinda baffled at the scouting process because everything I've seen shows me a kid who has an elite approach with elite power to all fields at an incredibly young age. 

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38 minutes ago, hgh22 said:

 

i must not know anything because I expected those grades to be a good deal higher.  Kinda baffled at the scouting process because everything I've seen shows me a kid who has an elite approach with elite power to all fields at an incredibly young age. 

hard to say anyone knows anything, he's played 1 game in the majors and 33 minor league games. 

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24 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

hard to say anyone knows anything, he's played 1 game in the majors and 33 minor league games. 

 

Hes actually played in 124 games total between rookie ball up to his debut last night and owns the following slash line:

 

 

 

All between the ages of 17-19 and while dealing with injuries.  I think it’s safe to say he has a potential 65-70 hit grade considering Vlad Jr is being given a potential 80 by some scouts right now.  I see Soto as slightly below vlad in hit tool right now but actually with more power upside.

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9 minutes ago, andy1234 said:

Should he be owned in 12 team H2H leagues yet?

No doubt .... I believe as soon as the news broke the Nationals called him up. 

 

While some on this thread wrote they didn’t think .... 

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2 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

Hes actually played in 124 games total between rookie ball up to his debut last night and owns the following slash line:

 

 

 

All between the ages of 17-19 and while dealing with injuries.  I think it’s safe to say he has a potential 65-70 hit grade considering Vlad Jr is being given a potential 80 by some scouts right now.  I see Soto as slightly below vlad in hit tool right now but actually with more power upside.

whoops yes 124 thanks for correcting 

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39 minutes ago, andy1234 said:

Should he be owned in 12 team H2H leagues yet?

Should be rostered in 10 team Standard H2H redraft leagues as soon as the news broke that he was getting the call up. There's just too much potential. 

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If you have to ask if he should be owned I have some rad Matthew Berry tee shirts to sell you.

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4 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

The article is a little confusing honestly. They acknowledge that his grades were conservative since he was so young, inexperienced, and far away to begin the season and that they need to be re-evaluated given his recent success.  Then they make this very similar comparison to a college kid who is years away from being on top 100 lists but grades out similarly. And then ends the article saying well Soto is in the bigs now so that just goes to show you how these two are miles apart. Weird: I read it all and got basically nothing useful out of it 

 

Yeah, this. Contextually, if he was comparing the college player to Soto to show how advanced Soto actually is, and in relation to the resetting of his CV/FV grades, that would make complete sense. It makes none because his grades are...really low. Still. Considering how speculative the whole thing is, why wouldn’t his hit tool be in the 60’s, potentially 70’s? Especially with his profile? Bizarre. 

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fangraphs is great if you go there for graphical information and you're a fan of baseball. 

 

but i put more value on the prospect lists found on this board than I do the ratings fangraphs puts on prospects. 

 

the ranking of soto's hit tool in the above article just reinforces that decision for me personally.

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39 minutes ago, hgh22 said:

fangraphs is great if you go there for graphical information and you're a fan of baseball. 

 

but i put more value on the prospect lists found on this board than I do the ratings fangraphs puts on prospects. 

 

the ranking of soto's hit tool in the above article just reinforces that decision for me personally.

I don't think there's anything really wrong with Fangraphs' prospect grades. 

 

Like with anything, you have to know what they are, how they're created and how to use them. In the case of FG's grades I think they're often conservative and can have certain trends particular to the scouts. Look at Eloy Jimenez. Kid hits like .300/.350/.500 across the minors, and his hit tool is graded out as a 30/50. That's fine, but it's because both of them must have been conservatively graded because of their little time spent above or at AA.

 

Every prospect scout gets stuff embarrassingly wrong though anyways, so it's hardly a big deal.

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As others have said - that Fangraphs article on Soto is all over the place.

 

So here are my thoughts on it - 

 

Some (many?) scouts who assign grades to players are very reluctant to change their grades quickly, even when presented with compelling evidence. They don't want to be seen as being reactionary. They want the grades they assign to have more permanence, lest they be forced to constantly reassign new grades to everyone all the time and admit that their assigned grade really doesn't mean all that much in the first place. 

 

I think this writer's 55 hit / 60 power future grades for Soto just highlight the point. It doesn't matter that Soto has been otherworldly this year. He saw a few Soto at-bats in 2017 and damn it, he's sticking to his guns. Does the fact that he has a 1.200+ OPS with more walks than strikeouts across 4 professional levels as a 19-year-old make his hit tool project to be anything more than slightly above average one day? Ehhh, nah. Does the fact that Soto bulked up like crazy this offseason and is hitting homers 460+ feet this season change his power grade? Naw, he already came out with a grade in March dawg. 

 

Any reasonable assessment of Soto right now is that he projects to be better than a slightly above average major league hitter one day.

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright
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1 hour ago, hgh22 said:

fangraphs is great if you go there for graphical information and you're a fan of baseball. 

 

but i put more value on the prospect lists found on this board than I do the ratings fangraphs puts on prospects. 

 

the ranking of soto's hit tool in the above article just reinforces that decision for me personally.

 

All you really need to do is look at his minor league numbers lol

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18 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

As others have said - that Fangraphs article on Soto is all over the place.

 

So here are my thoughts on it - 

 

Some (many?) scouts who assign grades to players are very reluctant to change their grades quickly, even when presented with compelling evidence. They don't want to be seen as being reactionary. They want the grades they assign to have more permanence, lest they be forced to constantly reassign new grades to everyone all the time and admit that their assigned grade really doesn't mean all that much in the first place. 

 

I think this writer's 55 hit / 60 power future grades for Soto just highlight the point. It doesn't matter that Soto has been otherworldly this year. He saw a few Soto at-bats in 2017 and damn it, he's sticking to his guns. Does the fact that he has a 1.200+ OPS with more walks than strikeouts across 4 professional levels as a 19-year-old make his hit tool project to be anything more than slightly above average one day? Ehhh, nah. Does the fact that Soto bulked up like crazy this offseason and is hitting homers 460+ feet this season change his power grade? Naw, he already came out with a grade in March dawg. 

 

Any reasonable assessment of Soto right now is that he projects to be better than a slightly above average major league hitter one day.

 

Exactly the highlighted. He saw a time he swung too hard and over the top of a breaking pitch and so that will be a huge issue...regardless of his elite contact...oooookkkkkkk

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3 hours ago, andy1234 said:

Should he be owned in 12 team H2H leagues yet?

 

He should be owned in Fantasy Hockey, Football and Basketball leagues. 

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2 hours ago, mcbane said:

 

Yeah, this. Contextually, if he was comparing the college player to Soto to show how advanced Soto actually is, and in relation to the resetting of his CV/FV grades, that would make complete sense. It makes none because his grades are...really low. Still. Considering how speculative the whole thing is, why wouldn’t his hit tool be in the 60’s, potentially 70’s? Especially with his profile? Bizarre. 

1.) He said he saw him last week, not last year.

2.) It was college freshman from a major conference who was killing it, aka someone the exact same age. Made sense to me. He explained why Soto is and should be more highly regarded.

3.) I've rarely seen them give out a 70 grade hit tool. They really put a ton of thought into grading the hit tool usually too because its one the hardest to grade.

 

 

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