Carlos Correa

Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Posts like this are ridiculous. He might be the worst MLB player this year. He might hit below the mendoza line. We don't know how he's going to be. His potential his sky-high but you can't just go around making generalizations like "he's better than your worst player". I'm likely not adding if I'm in 8 or 10 team leagues.

What do you have to lose? Dropping your worst player for Soto isn't going to break your team. If he catches fire, he will surely help. If you want to play it safe and not add him, that's up to you. Any player you pick up could result in exactly what you said, but not all of them have the talent that Soto has. It's quite simple. Carry on.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
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1 minute ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

What do you have to lose? Dropping your worst player for Soto isn't going to break your team. If he catches fire, he will surely help. If you want to play it safe and not add him, that's up to you. Any player you pick up could result in exactly what you said, but not all of them have the talent that Soto has. It's quite simple. Carry on.

You play the odds. When you make generalizations like "not all of them have the talent Soto has", you're betting to an extent that he actually reaches that potential to the extent that his fantasy return is higher than whatever talent you already rostered. Otherwise, what's the point of adding if he's just going to return the same or lesser value? The odds that Soto reaches that level this year is a lot slimmer than warrants a "no reason not to add, he's better than your worst player" posts. 

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4 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

You play the odds. When you make generalizations like "not all of them have the talent Soto has", you're betting to an extent that he actually reaches that potential to the extent that his fantasy return is higher than whatever talent you already rostered. Otherwise, what's the point of adding if he's just going to return the same or lesser value? The odds that Soto reaches that level this year is a lot slimmer than warrants a "no reason not to add, he's better than your worst player" posts. 

If he doesn't work out, simply drop him and pick up another guy. If you're playing in 8-team or 10-team leagues, I'm sure you could find a replacement for the player you originally dropped, especially since that player was probably on your bench to begin with. Like I said, feel free to not pick him up. That's on you.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
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19 or not, its a no brainer to pick him up in any size redraft IMO. 

 

No guts, no glory.  

 

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24 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

If he doesn't work out, simply drop him and pick up another guy. If you're playing in 8-team or 10-team leagues, I'm sure you could find a replacement for the player you originally dropped, especially since that player was probably on your bench to begin with. Like I said, feel free to not pick him up. That's on you.

 

I completely agree with you here. These kinds of decisions are what separates winners from the other contenders. Taking a risk on a player who has the potential of a higher payoff than the average replacement player. More likely than not, the last player on every team is marginally better than the next best player in free agency and with a lot lower ceiling than the hyped up and recalled prospect. If anything else if that prospect doesn’t end up working out, you could preempt the failure by utilizing the highly elevated perceived value as trade bait and get something of substantially better value than the average replacement player you previously had.

 

Value is not derived in what you think, but what others think and what they’re willing to pay for it. Someone else in an 8- to 10- team league must value them to something equivalent to their last starting hitter at least, if you don’t.

Edited by bigge2win

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7 minutes ago, bigge2win said:

 

I completely agree with you here. These kinds of decisions are what separates winners from the other contenders. Taking a risk on a player who has the potential of a higher payoff than the average replacement player. More likely than not, the last player on every team is marginally better than the next best player in free agency and with a lot lower ceiling than the hyped up and recalled prospect. If anything else if that prospect doesn’t end up working out, you could preempt the failure by utilizing the highly elevated perceived value as trade bait and get something of substantially better value than the average replacement player you previously had.

 

Value is not derived in what you think, but what others think and what they’re willing to pay for it. Someone else in an 8- to 10- team league must value them to something equivalent to their last starting hitter at least, if you don’t.

It's nice to play the "this is the difference between winners and losers" narrative - it sounds good reading it and plays out of a hollywood script. But the bolded is an assumption that doesn't ring true, at least in leagues I've played at. There are good teams, there are bad teams, and there are a whole lot of average teams stuck in the middle. Assuming a bulk of rotoworld posters belong in the former, their worst player is likely heaps better than replacement. The risk you take when dropping that player for Soto is the certainty that that player will be picked up by any team in the other two categories.

 

So while I agree...sometimes you take that risk and hope it plays out. Especially for a guy like Soto. But to make generalizations like the above is also why teams lose. Every risk should be calculated, not an impulse. 

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8 hours ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

This might be a silly exercise but...

 

The STEAMER Projection system estimates Juan Soto will hit .264/.322/.433. Which would be fantastic for his age and level of experience.

 

However, I saw an article with an analysis on projections for rookies recently, and the conclusion was that rookies ranked in the top 50 prospects on average end up beating their OPS by about 50 points.

 

Applying the bump, Soto would be projected for something like .270/.340/.460. (Yes, an .800 OPS)

 

Take these projections with a massive gain of salt, obviously.

 

But those kind of projections just highlight how unbelievably dominant Soto has been in the minors during his time there.

I saw that he was projected for a .263/.321/.432 line, but it says 1 PA. Is there any updated projection system that actually tries to project him across a healthier number of PAs?

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6 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

It's nice to play the "this is the difference between winners and losers" narrative - it sounds good reading it and plays out of a hollywood script. But the bolded is an assumption that doesn't ring true, at least in leagues I've played at. There are good teams, there are bad teams, and there are a whole lot of average teams stuck in the middle. Assuming a bulk of rotoworld posters belong in the former, their worst player is likely heaps better than replacement. The risk you take when dropping that player for Soto is the certainty that that player will be picked up by any team in the other two categories.

 

So while I agree...sometimes you take that risk and hope it plays out. Especially for a guy like Soto. But to make generalizations like the above is also why teams lose. Every risk should be calculated, not an impulse. 

 

Well, the same generalization you made can also be incorrect. If we’re all playing in highly competitive leagues, then the last player on every team is pretty similar. It won’t be heaps better. There’ll be slim pickings. Why not make a move to get the extra edge on everyone else, especially since it’s your last player who doesn’t start most of the time.

 

Trust me, I’m not a fan of overhyped prospects, but I do know that value can be leveraged to your benefit. Are you telling me you wouldn’t buy Twitter or Snapchat stock on its IPOs to flip it to the willing sucker who wants to pay for the bubble so you can make a killing on the pure speculation? That was the point to my post, not solely because I think Soto is the next Trout. Not that Soto will flop, but I hope you get my drift here. It’s all about increasing your value as a team, rather than predicting how much better one asset will be in your portfolio.

Edited by bigge2win

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4 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

It's nice to play the "this is the difference between winners and losers" narrative - it sounds good reading it and plays out of a hollywood script. But the bolded is an assumption that doesn't ring true, at least in leagues I've played at. There are good teams, there are bad teams, and there are a whole lot of average teams stuck in the middle. Assuming a bulk of rotoworld posters belong in the former, their worst player is likely heaps better than replacement. The risk you take when dropping that player for Soto is the certainty that that player will be picked up by any team in the other two categories.

 

So while I agree...sometimes you take that risk and hope it plays out. Especially for a guy like Soto. But to make generalizations like the above is also why teams lose. Every risk should be calculated, not an impulse. 

Thinking for myself, it is probably true that my average bench player is far superior to the bench players on most of the teams in my league, and my bench might even be superior to some teams' starters.

 

I think the thing that mitigates the risk is that most of us, given the fact that we're on a board like this, are pretty in-tune with fantasy. So I dropped someone that's going to almost certainly be picked up by my leaguemates. Maybe he has a monstrous season and I just lost out. Big deal.

 

I'm confident enough in my ability to find someone else to replace him if Soto should fail though.

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The reason he is up is part because the Nationals have 5 injured OF. Eaton, Robles, Kendrick, Goodwin, R. Bautsia. 

 

Everyone but Goodwin have injuries that going to keep them out for probably a month plus.  So if he does hit the ground running somehow. He's likely to stick for awhile.  He's worth a pick up IMO because the PT opportunity is there if he isn't over matched.  Yeah  we never know with teenage prospects. Its a literal dice roll..but the upside worth it.

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Dynasty owners are thrilled and redraft owners are skeptical hippos.

 

If in redraft run to your waiver wire and tell me who you would rather habe than soto. Jankowski? Nimmo?

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20 minutes ago, bigge2win said:

 

Well, the same generalization you made can also be incorrect. If we’re all playing in highly competitive leagues, then the last player on every team is pretty similar. It won’t be heaps better. There’ll be slim pickings. Why not make a move to get the extra edge on everyone else, especially since it’s your last player who doesn’t start most of the time.

 

Trust me, I’m not a fan of overhyped prospects, but I do know that value can be leveraged to your benefit. Are you telling me you wouldn’t buy Twitter or Snapchat stock on its IPOs to flip it to the willing sucker who wants to pay for the bubble so you can make a killing on the pure speculation? That was the point to my post, not solely because I think Soto is the next Trout. Not that Soto will flop, but I hope you get my drift here. It’s all about increasing your value as a team, rather than predicting how much better one asset will be in your portfolio.

 

15 minutes ago, Philoumenos said:

Thinking for myself, it is probably true that my average bench player is far superior to the bench players on most of the teams in my league, and my bench might even be superior to some teams' starters.

 

I think the thing that mitigates the risk is that most of us, given the fact that we're on a board like this, are pretty in-tune with fantasy. So I dropped someone that's going to almost certainly be picked up by my leaguemates. Maybe he has a monstrous season and I just lost out. Big deal.

 

I'm confident enough in my ability to find someone else to replace him if Soto should fail though.

I agree with both your posts and don't think there's a right or wrong answer. I think the bottom line is that the risk should be calculated, and as in @Philoumenos's case, he dropped Soto because the risk is worth it to him. The ultimate decision ultimately depends on the manager, their league, the player being dropped, etc. - AKA too many factors to come up with an ultimate answer.

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Anyone know if he can play center?  I wonder if Taylor’s anemic bat played a part in his promotion as well.

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Argue back and forth all you want, if you can’t find a spot at the end of your roster for this high upside lottery ticket you’re not trying. 

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11 minutes ago, FUM said:

Anyone know if he can play center?  I wonder if Taylor’s anemic bat played a part in his promotion as well.

I'm presuming they are rotating Stevenson/Taylor in center and he's got a chance to hold down one the OF corner slots opposite Harper

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5 minutes ago, steve9347 said:

Argue back and forth all you want, if you can’t find a spot at the end of your roster for this high upside lottery ticket you’re not trying. 

Exactly. I dropped my #4 OF who had been performing well. But he wasnt going to be a difference maker. 

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A lot more back and forth here than I expected. What I don’t get is this idea of “risk” I just don’t see what the risk is here. This isn’t an Acuna situation where you had to draft him early then hope he was called up in a timely manner and that he actually performed according to his pedigree.

 

The risk here is cutting a player who MAY have an impact for someone who could have an equal or greater impact. For those in leagues with FAAB the risk is obviously somewhat greater as you could overspend your FAAB and limit options down the stretch. That said in those leagues you get to measure your own risk tolerance and bid accordingly.

 

I play in a relatively deep / competitive league - 12 teams, 35 man rosters. I can tell you just about every team has 1-2 guys who are cut worthy at any point. Almost always when cuts happen the cut player is not added again. So if you pick Soto up and he doesn’t pan out drop him and pick up the guy you had rostered before or someone better. In shallower leagues where the replacement level is higher there is even LESS risk as the player pool is deeper. If Soto doesn’t work out you can drop him for Senzel, Calhoun, Tucker or Adames when they get the call.

 

I just don’t see the downside here...

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3 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

There is zero reason not to pick him up. No matter how shallow your league is, he's better than your worst player. Drop a bench guy, there's nothing to lose here.

 

I disagree. If you're in a shallow 10 teamer with only 3 of spots, maybe even a 12 teamer. I think there's an excellent chance he isn't worth much, especially if its redraft. 

 

If you're in a 12 teamer with 5 OF or deeper, he seems like a no doubt pick up to at least see.

 

Real chance this guy struggles this year due to age and lack of experience. 

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I disagree. If you're in a shallow 10 teamer with only 3 of spots, maybe even a 12 teamer. I think there's an excellent chance he isn't worth much, especially if its redraft. 

 

If you're in a 12 teamer with 5 OF or deeper, he seems like a no doubt pick up to at least see.

 

Real chance this guy struggles this year due to age and lack of experience. 

I dropped a guy in my 8-team league for Soto. If he doesn't work out, there are some decent options on the WW. I'm willing to take the risk. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

Real chance this guy struggles this year due to age and lack of experience. 

Lol no kidding but anything is possible.

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Jon Heynman says the comp for Soto is Tony Olivia. 

 

If you don't know who that is check out his baseball reference page.. He went to 8 straight All Star games before being hurt in his age 32 season and never fully regaining his abilities. 

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Of course there is always risk. That is silly.

 

There is ALWAYS an opportunity cost. You are just simply stacking that risk towards his upside. Which is where you can justify reward/upside outweighs it here for me IMO.  Even if in a historical context. The odds of a teenager hitting the ground running are against him.

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2 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

Jon Heynman says the comp for Soto is Tony Olivia. 

 

If you don't know who that is check out his baseball reference page.. He went to 8 straight All Star games before being hurt in his age 32 season and never fully regaining his abilities. 

Strange comparison. 

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Breaking news: During the time everyone has been arguing over whether Soto is worth a pickup in their league, someone has already added him to their roster. You snooze you lose when top prospects are called up.

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