Carlos Correa

Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, Yceman1234 said:

Breaking news: During the time everyone has been arguing over whether Soto is worth a pickup in their league, someone has already added him to their roster. You snooze you lose when top prospects are called up.

Yeah that was me. In the middle of the night! Lol

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14 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I dropped a guy in my 8-team league for Soto. If he doesn't work out, there are some decent options on the WW. I'm willing to take the risk. 

 

In a shallow league of no consequences, it doesn't really matter. You're just playing the hot hand anyway. 

 

I imagine he starts out pretty hot and has a lengthy adjustment period.  Being a starting OF in an 8 team league in your age 19 season is basically unheard of.  Even age 20 seasons haven't been anything spectacular besides Mike Trout since I can remember, and Trout stuggled mightily in his age 19 call up season.  HArper went 22-18 270, which was kind of ridiculous, however for the era in fantasy was probably an OF 4/5 in 10 teamers.  I wish I could see a historical player rater to see where Harper finished that year, because thats the gold standard for age 19 seasons in recent history.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Juan Soto is the first MLB player to have been born after the following debuted in the Majors:

- The D-backs
- The (Devil) Rays
- Adrian Beltre

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29 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

A lot more back and forth here than I expected. What I don’t get is this idea of “risk” I just don’t see what the risk is here. This isn’t an Acuna situation where you had to draft him early then hope he was called up in a timely manner and that he actually performed according to his pedigree.

 

The risk here is cutting a player who MAY have an impact for someone who could have an equal or greater impact. For those in leagues with FAAB the risk is obviously somewhat greater as you could overspend your FAAB and limit options down the stretch. That said in those leagues you get to measure your own risk tolerance and bid accordingly.

 

I play in a relatively deep / competitive league - 12 teams, 35 man rosters. I can tell you just about every team has 1-2 guys who are cut worthy at any point. Almost always when cuts happen the cut player is not added again. So if you pick Soto up and he doesn’t pan out drop him and pick up the guy you had rostered before or someone better. In shallower leagues where the replacement level is higher there is even LESS risk as the player pool is deeper. If Soto doesn’t work out you can drop him for Senzel, Calhoun, Tucker or Adames when they get the call.

 

I just don’t see the downside here...

You basically made a point and then followed with the worst use of support I've seen on these forums. 12 team 35 man rosters....yea of course every team has a few guys that are cut-worthy for Soto. If you read the above posts, you'll note that we're not talking about these insanely-deep leagues. A 420-player league is vastly different from the standard 12-team 24-man league many play in.

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Yeah, I love this move from a baseball point...

...but it kinda sucks for me in fantasy.

 

This guy is a must-add in all formats. Unfortunately, the risk is insanely high here with a 19 year old coming up to the MLB with a cup of coffee in double A.

 

My guess is that he flops, but you can't let him flop anywhere else, you need to pick this guy up.

Some tough decisions were made on my teams this past night. I had to drop guys like Caleb Smith, Fernado Romero, Byron Buxton (only in one league), etc. to make room for him.  These are all guys that I believe in.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

 

 

I play in a relatively deep / competitive league - 12 teams, 35 man rosters. I can tell you just about every team has 1-2 guys who are cut worthy at any point. Almost always when cuts happen the cut player is not added again. So if you pick Soto up and he doesn’t pan out drop him and pick up the guy you had rostered before or someone better. In shallower leagues where the replacement level is higher there is even LESS risk as the player pool is deeper. If Soto doesn’t work out you can drop him for Senzel, Calhoun, Tucker or Adames when they get the call.

 

I just don’t see the downside here...

 

 

Yes in a shallow league, there's no downside because there's no downside with any pickups really.

 

In a deep league, he has to be owned.

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3 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

You basically made a point and then followed with the worst use of support I've seen on these forums. 12 team 35 man rosters....yea of course every team has a few guys that are cut-worthy for Soto. If you read the above posts, you'll note that we're not talking about these insanely-deep leagues. A 420-player league is vastly different from the standard 12-team 24-man league many play in.

 

I (obviously) disagree - from my standpoint the shallower your league the deeper the free agent pool which means you should take more “risk” rather than less. In shallower leagues it is easier to find replacements for players that do not pan out. Help me understand what the I’m missing.

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When making comparisons between Soto and other players, I do think it's important to mention once again Soto's performance so far this season:

 

A (16 games): .373/.486/.814., 14 BB, 13 K

A+ (15 games): .371/.466/.790, 11 BB, 8 K

AA (8 games): .323/.400/.581, 4 BB, 7 K

Total (39 games): .362 /.462 /.757, 29 BB, 28 K

 

Even with the small 39 game sample size, and even with most of the production occurring in A/A+... I have never seen a comparable performance from a 19-year-old in the minor leagues. And he has dominated the minors from the day he started playing Rookie ball as a 17-year-old.

 

I'm not saying we've never seen a teenager with stats like this coming out of the minors before, but I haven't come across it (well, aside from Vlad Jr.).

 

For that reason, it's hard to compare Soto to other prospects who got the call as teenagers. 

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright
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9 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

 

I (obviously) disagree - from my standpoint the shallower your league the deeper the free agent pool which means you should take more “risk” rather than less. In shallower leagues it is easier to find replacements for players that do not pan out. Help me understand what the I’m missing.

In shallow leagues you've rostered players who are more likely to be difference makers. How is that possible, you ask, when the FA pool is so deep and you can find great talent on the wire? Because not all teams are created equal. People here are making the mistake of saying things like "All teams have a few players that are droppable". This isn't true, because I (and a lot of other posters on here) have a better roster than other teams in my leagues.

 

In deep leagues, managers are forced to take risks on players due to the lack of quality on the wire. Soto represents the highest upside, so he's the better gamble over someone else. 

 

edit: and see @Slatykamora's post below mine for a better explanation.

Edited by Jyeatbvg

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The mean Stat line to win is higher in shallow leagues. There is a higher expectation. They're is actually greater opportunity cost taking Soto. He has a higher threshold to cross to be profitable.. As the WW truly may have guys on the verge of breakouts that you let your opposition get your hands while you go after Soto. You arent after just "good" players in those leagues. You need really good/great player/production

 

Deeper leagues, there really isn't anyone that can match his upside and the mean stat line is lower. So its a no brainier.

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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I understand it, but still kind of a shame.  Would have been much easier to watch the game on a Sunday, but oh well.

 

I'm guessing he won't even pinch hit.  Would be kind of silly to have his Major League debut be in a pinch hit appearance.

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1 minute ago, KilloWertz said:

I understand it, but still kind of a shame.  Would have been much easier to watch the game on a Sunday, but oh well.

 

I'm guessing he won't even pinch hit.  Would be kind of silly to have his Major League debut be in a pinch hit appearance.

Wouldn't be silly at all.  I'd bet he does pinch hit.

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10 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Not in the lineup today. Womp womp. Not surprising though. Travel, get in the dugout, get the feel.

Lefty on mound.  Another platoon bat?

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2 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Lefty on mound.  Another platoon bat?

Anything’s possible, but I doubt it. May try to protect him against some good lefties but doubt it’ll be a strict platoon.

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15 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Not in the lineup today. Womp womp. Not surprising though. Travel, get in the dugout, get the feel.

 

Epic troll job by the Nationals. I have to applaud. 

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4 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Lefty on mound.  Another platoon bat?

Not a chance.  It is just what Backdoor said.  Travel, give him a day to settle and soak it all in.  That's it.

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3 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Not a chance.  It is just what Backdoor said.  Travel, give him a day to settle and soak it all in.  That's it.

I think there’s a decent chance.  Michael Taylor vs RHP .468 OPS, Michael Taylor vs LHP .800 OPS.  I bet they platoon those 2.

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1 minute ago, Cmilne23 said:

I think there’s a decent chance.  Michael Taylor vs RHP .468 OPS, Michael Taylor vs LHP .800 OPS.  I bet they platoon those 2.

Michael Taylor is playing CF. Soto isn’t a CF. Soto is up to play LF.

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2 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Michael Taylor is playing CF. Soto isn’t a CF. Soto is up to play LF.

So Fat Adams will platoon with Mark Reynolds?

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3 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Posts like this are ridiculous. He might be the worst MLB player this year. He might hit below the mendoza line. We don't know how he's going to be. His potential his sky-high but you can't just go around making generalizations like "he's better than your worst player". I'm likely not adding if I'm in 8 or 10 team leagues.

Byron Buxton might have something to say about that...

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4 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

So Fat Adams will platoon with Mark Reynolds?

Well I don’t know how much Reynolds is in their plans, but probably more likely. Not sure how much they want Adams in LF. Guess we’ll see. Whoever is hitting will likely dictate this IMO.

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