Carlos Correa

Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

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1 minute ago, bigbossman said:

what is his upside for stolen bases?

he is fast

 

but you can't steal first base

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10-15, I’d imagine 

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11 hours ago, Philoumenos said:

LMAO, I don't think most people are watching CNN for their baseball news before they head to a game on Sunday afternoon.

 

EDIT: Just to clarify, I don't think that many people went to bed at 11 PM last night with no idea who Soto was and then learned about him by 2PM the next day. It's not like he was some no name, no hype, unheralded prospect that only the Secret Rotoworld Cabal knew about.

 

They literally ran his minro league stats the game before his call up with FP saying they should call him up now. I'm sure most somewhat dedicated fan knew his name and how he was doing in the minors this season.

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30 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

what is his upside for stolen bases?

 

He was given the 70 grade speed from home to first, so he definitely has the speed to steal a good amount of bases.  He has only stolen 9 in 133 minor league games and been caught 5 times.  I think he could develop into a solid sb threat, but right now I don’t see him attempting too many in the majors.  Down the road we could see 15-20 simply because he has the raw speed to do it and once he’s hitting .350 in the majors at age 22 he’ll want another challenge.

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For what its worth, Steamer just put out a more thorough projection (I think the only projection system before had a triple slash line but 1 AB). 

 

Anyway the new projection is:

125 PA, 15 R, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .291/.351/.480

 

That seems crazy optimistic to me, but usually projection systems are more cautious than anything

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8 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

For what its worth, Steamer just put out a more thorough projection (I think the only projection system before had a triple slash line but 1 AB). 

 

Anyway the new projection is:

125 PA, 15 R, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .291/.351/.480

 

That seems crazy optimistic to me, but usually projection systems are more cautious than anything

 

4 HR seems a little light if we were to assume he gets close to FT from here on out. 

 

Obviously the slash looks nice. 

Edited by Gandalfthecat

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9 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

For what its worth, Steamer just put out a more thorough projection (I think the only projection system before had a triple slash line but 1 AB). 

 

Anyway the new projection is:

125 PA, 15 R, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .291/.351/.480

 

That seems crazy optimistic to me, but usually projection systems are more cautious than anything

 

the slash line is optimistic, but for the rest of the season 4 HR and 2 SB would be disappointing.

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Yeah, 125 PA means they're not projecting him to stay ROS, but if he's hitting 0.291/0.351, they can't really send him back down, so if you expand that over 400 pa then you're looking at 13 HR

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rolling with him this week... why not? Although it will be a bummer if he is sitting today and may make me rethink that.  I really hope that they brought him up to play and not this play every so often nonsense that the Rockies put McMahon through.  

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1 hour ago, merlin401 said:

For what its worth, Steamer just put out a more thorough projection (I think the only projection system before had a triple slash line but 1 AB). 

 

Anyway the new projection is:

125 PA, 15 R, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .291/.351/.480

 

That seems crazy optimistic to me, but usually projection systems are more cautious than anything

 

Indeed, projection systems like STEAMER tend to be cautious.

 

So for a 19-year-old to be projected for a 115 wRC+ (15% better than an average major league hitter) is crazy and again highlights just how insanely dominant he has been in the minor leagues.

 

We're just not used to seeing prospects called up (even the top ones) who have dominated minor league competition to such an extent.

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright
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25 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

Indeed, projection systems like STEAMER tend to be cautious.

 

So for a 19-year-old to be projected for a 115 wRC+ (15% better than an average major league hitter) is crazy and again highlights just how insanely dominant he has been in the minor leagues.

 

We're just not used to seeing prospects called up (even the top ones) who have dominated minor league competition to such an extent.

 

I'd be cautiously optimistic on him this year. He jumped like 3 levels to get to the majors. He had like 35 plate appearances at AA. He struck out pretty spectacularly in his first AB yesterday. I'd probably bench him this week and see what he looks like. Definitely a must add though and I'm upset I didnt pick him up as soon as Kendrick went down and FP said they should call him up. The thought flitted across my mind but I held Vlad instead.

 

Edit: Fat fingers.

Edited by BohCountyBats

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Considering he started in low-A ball, he actually jumped 4 levels this year.

 

low A- > A+ -> AA -> AAA -> MLB

 

Sure, he never actually made a stop in AAA, but I'm pretty sure that still counts as "jumping" that level.

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For comparison purposes

 

Alex Rodriguez at 19: .232/.264/.408 48 Games

Mike Trout at 19: .220/.281/.390 40 Games

Bryce Harper at 19: .270/.340/.477 139 Games

Adrian Beltre at 19: .215/.278/.369 77 Games

Justin Upton at 19: .221/.283/.364 43 Games

 

Not trying to derail this hype train as I picked him up.... BUT unless he is Bryce Harper, his first taste at the majors is probably expected to be a tough one. All of these players had pretty good seasons the next year which would help lead their careers. For the most part, we might want to temper our expectations and see what happens. 

 

That being said, I hope the kid smashes 15 home runs this year and goes crazy and defies all expectations. But theres a reason not that many 19 year olds have been called up. 

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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

Fangraphs: fastest to the majors since ARod.

 

Good lord look at that list of teenagers in the bigs. Some less than ideal outcomes, but overall it's an impressive list of players to be listed alongside. 

 

Sounds like we need to pay attention to what he does on curves and breaking stuff.  See how he handles it

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1 hour ago, BohCountyBats said:

He struck out pretty spectacularly in his first AB yesterday.

He took the 1st pitch on the outer third for a strike, took a high and in pitch for a ball, fouled off a fastball and swung over a decent looking change. I’m not sure that he “struck out spectacularly “ It sure didn’t cast any doubt as far as I’m concerned.

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I think that projection from Steamer is reasonable, but I do think the HR's are a bit low even if the line itself is nice and fairly realistic if he figures it out fairly quickly like he has at the other levels.  They must be predicting a decent amount of XBH's since .480 is a solid SLG%.  I have a feeling a few more will go over the wall rather that hit it though.

 

Regardless, tonight is exciting.  One can ignore his pinch hit appearance from yesterday.  It wasn't a totally surprising outcome given that he was coming off the bench cold on his first day in the majors.

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4 hours ago, Carlos Correa said:

 

If he can show even a portion of the talent they showed at their peaks (Harper is still in his peak, Profar has been a bust), we will have gotten ourselves a waiver wire gem

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Just heard on the broadcast that the Nats manager said he "probably won't be in the lineup tomorrow, but plans can change". He said it's because righties have hit Eric Lauer harder. :huh:

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