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Jamison Crowder 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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This guy is the quintessential unexciting, thus underrated, player. I wouldn't expect him to be drafted higher than a back end WR3 this year. Even at that price, most people will probably only muster up a "meh" when he's drafted. 

 

Even if you think we've seen his ceiling already (he's only 24), he's still more valuable than this. He had a really lousy start to last season, and everyone jumped off the Crowder ship. Then, over the last 9 games of last season, Crowder averaged 15 PPR PPG, which is basically back end WR1 numbers. 

 

If he clicks with Smith, I could definitely see him being a top 20 PPR WR. His floor feels like solid WR3. 

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3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

This guy is the quintessential unexciting, thus underrated, player. I wouldn't expect him to be drafted higher than a back end WR3 this year. Even at that price, most people will probably only muster up a "meh" when he's drafted. 

 

Even if you think we've seen his ceiling already (he's only 24), he's still more valuable than this. He had a really lousy start to last season, and everyone jumped off the Crowder ship. Then, over the last 9 games of last season, Crowder averaged 15 PPR PPG, which is basically back end WR1 numbers. 

 

If he clicks with Smith, I could definitely see him being a top 20 PPR WR. His floor feels like solid WR3. 

 

IF he clicks with Smith.  Key words there.  I think the only thing most of us can safely predict is CT25 gonna click with Smith and probably Jordan Reed.  

 

Both of those guys bring major red flags with full season availability.  

 

That leaves Crowder, Doctson, and Richardson in the mix for the other guy.  Even if there is 1, it will only be 1.  Alex is boring.  None of these guys scream get me the ball I've created unreal separation on this play drawn up for me like Tyreek Hill did last season.

 

As of today, I am probably leaning toward all 3 being basically fantasy worthless, but I can see Crowder's potentially emerging.  I can't get down with a WR3 floor though.  We just saw WR-BUM with a QB that throws about 50-100 more times a year on average.

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7 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

IF he clicks with Smith.  Key words there.  I think the only thing most of us can safely predict is CT25 gonna click with Smith and probably Jordan Reed.  

 

Both of those guys bring major red flags with full season availability.  

 

That leaves Crowder, Doctson, and Richardson in the mix for the other guy.  Even if there is 1, it will only be 1.  Alex is boring.  None of these guys scream get me the ball I've created unreal separation on this play drawn up for me like Tyreek Hill did last season.

 

As of today, I am probably leaning toward all 3 being basically fantasy worthless, but I can see Crowder's potentially emerging.  I can't get down with a WR3 floor though.  We just saw WR-BUM with a QB that throws about 50-100 more times a year on average.

We didn't though. He finished as WR-29 in 2016, and WR-33 in 2017 (and was much better the second half of the season).

 

We pretty much saw steady WR3 for 2 full seasons. Again, Crowder is unsexy. He doesn't have flash to his game. He doesn't have a big personality. He's just a solid #1 WR on his team. 

 

Doug Baldwin 2014: 66 catches, 98 targets, 825 yards, 3 TDs. 

Jamison Crowder 2017: 66 catches 103 targets, 798 yards, 3 TDs. 

 

I'm not saying he's going to be Baldwin, but I see similarities. I think he could take another step over the next year or two. 

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I'm all over Crowder this year.  Would go far enough to say I wouldn't mind him as my WR2 in a PPR if I go RB heavy early.  Jordan Reed can't stay healthy for 5 minutes.  Thompson coming off a nasty injury.  Alex Smith loves the short/middle dink and dunk passing game.  Richardson and Doctson are decent young players, but fill different roles than Crowder.  Crowder is still only 24.  

 

Over his last 2 years, he's averaged about 67 catches, 800 yards and 5 TDs.  As another person mentioned, he was dealing with some injury last year and really came along second half of the season.  If he can stay healthy, and slightly bump production up to something like 75, 900, 5 (not a huge stretch by any means) - that's 195 points in PPR and would have finished as WR #21 last year.  If Reed and Thompson miss some extended time, and Smith gets comfortable with Crowder, he could propel himself into the WR 15-20 range even.

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30 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

We didn't though. He finished as WR-29 in 2016, and WR-33 in 2017 (and was much better the second half of the season).

 

We pretty much saw steady WR3 for 2 full seasons. Again, Crowder is unsexy. He doesn't have flash to his game. He doesn't have a big personality. He's just a solid #1 WR on his team. 

 

Doug Baldwin 2014: 66 catches, 98 targets, 825 yards, 3 TDs. 

Jamison Crowder 2017: 66 catches 103 targets, 798 yards, 3 TDs. 

 

I'm not saying he's going to be Baldwin, but I see similarities. I think he could take another step over the next year or two. 

 

I’m definitely targeting. He’s been productive, slot guy like him in a ppr league could be a steady flex. Not one pass catcher on this team is going earlier than sixth round ppr, so I think it makes sense to take a shot on him or Richardson later or Reed. 

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Slot guy in an offense with Alex Smith? I'll take some shares of him in redraft PPR for sure in the 8th-9th rounds. Even if Reed and CT stay healthy, Crowder will get his dinks and dunks in the offense. I'm not sold on Guice reviving this run game to be legit either which is a good thing. 

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Love Crowder this year. I think people were a year too early on him, but the fact that he was a bit of a disappointment last year could provide good value. I could see him catching ~85 balls this year with Alex Smith. 

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8 hours ago, TPowell said:

Slot guy in an offense with Alex Smith? I'll take some shares of him in redraft PPR for sure in the 8th-9th rounds. Even if Reed and CT stay healthy, Crowder will get his dinks and dunks in the offense. I'm not sold on Guice reviving this run game to be legit either which is a good thing. 

 

If he's available in the 9th rd of a PPR league, you need to find a more competitive league. 7th rd if you're lucky.

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I was on the fence with Crowder. Likely from taking him early last year and him failing me, but I will put my bitterness aside. 

 

This thread has sold me on some shares of Clam Crowder. I'll be targeting as well in my PPR now. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

If he's available in the 9th rd of a PPR league, you need to find a more competitive league. 7th rd if you're lucky.

 

His ADP is right at 100 on Draft which makes him an 8th-9th rounder. 

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2 hours ago, TPowell said:

 

His ADP is right at 100 on Draft which makes him an 8th-9th rounder. 

 

In high stakes redraft leagues he's going 6th rd right now, which is about right. 

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6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

In high stakes redraft leagues he's going 6th rd right now, which is about right. 

 

I'm curious where these leagues are.

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33 minutes ago, TPowell said:

 

I'm curious where these leagues are.

 

Myffpc -- footballguys players championship live drafts ($350 entry fee).

 

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I had Crowder & stuck with him until the game after their bye week. To that point he had been extremely volatile, his one big performance vs Dallas coming out of nowhere. I don't know about anyone else, but those were bench pts for me. The literature never seemed to mesh his usage, effectiveness & nagging injuries. Although, he was listed on their report in late weeks as well. A complete non-factor early on, Gruden would be quoted as saying they had to get him more involved. Then you'd read that the "coach's pet" Ryan Grant was taking snaps from him.

 

It's all hindsight now, but if someone has an explanation I'd still like to hear it. I mean, they let Garcon & Jackson go, Pryor wasn't much of a threat, Reed wasn't 100% anymore than usual, it should've happened. e; Perhaps some of it was an experiment or a necessity to have him out on the wing, given that he lined up in the slot less than 56% of the time? The talent is there... One narrative out of OTAs is the continuation of Gruden wanting to get his QB to trust his WRs in contested situations. Dotson & Richardson may well complement one another running Gruden's downfield concepts. Best I can tell, Gruden likes to run both wideouts at a single-high safety or even against a cover-two where they're zoned up. I think what he looks for are CBs funneling the rec'rs to their help, but in so doing, they place themselves in a trail position. With the WRs attacking the same area of the field, the one saftey can't provide the help to cover both.    

 

But those are time-intensive plays & a lot of factors go into making them work. So many new parts, I don't know that investing high in that passing attack will pay dividends, especially early on. Josh Doctson is having his first full camp...watch out for him. Can be had in the later rounds. Point being, there's the injury angle but then there's the other part about where Crowder lines up. Whoever, whatever they do on the perimeter, it may be important that it works. I'm leary to assume they have the depth, owners need to see Crowder lining up inside like 85-90% of the time, not a figure that begins with a 5! Another guy they drafted that may eventually factor in the slot is Trey Quinn. He's another one of these guys that runs like a RB after the catch.   

 

Edited by markrc99
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I drafted Crowder in all my leagues last year. Was really high on him and ended up dropping him in all leagues around week 6.  He was BAD.  Then he turned it around and I didn't own him anymore.  So frustraing.

 

Not sure I can buy another ticket on this train this year.  But I did watch him have a better second half of the season.  I play in Standard leagues so his 3 TDs last year was disappointing when he had 7 the year before. I thought he was trending up for 2017 but he didn't start that way.

 

Maybe, just maybe I bite on a couple leagues if he is still around in the later rounds and there isn't a better WR available.  Maybe I was a year too early like others mentioned above?

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Myffpc -- footballguys players championship live drafts ($350 entry fee).

 

 

I'd like to do one of these if they do PPR and have drafts later on in the year. I'll have to check into it. 

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1 hour ago, TPowell said:

 

I'd like to do one of these if they do PPR and have drafts later on in the year. I'll have to check into it. 

 

12-team PPR, TE premium, open since early May. I'll probably be drafting later this month. 

 

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6 hours ago, Big Nate said:

"I drafted Crowder in all my leagues last year. ... He was BAD. Then he turned it around and I didn't own him anymore. So frustrating. ... I play in Standard leagues so his 3 TDs last year was disappointing when he had 7 the year before. I thought he was trending up for 2017 but he didn't start that way. Maybe, just maybe I bite on a couple leagues if he is still around in the later rounds and there isn't a better WR available. Maybe I was a year too early like others mentioned above?"

 

Wait a minute, you were NOT wrong, you read it right, Crowder just didn't do enough. Consider that the "others" are not expressing the frustration of owning Crowder. Nor do they tell us why they didn't! Yeah, probably because they were all card-carrying members of the Terrelle Pryor cult! e; Former cult I should say, now defunct! e; You remember, it was a "no-brainer", the phenom teamed with a great QB...  I had mentioned that Crowder's snap/slot ratio seemed low but it isn't. So that's not it. That Pryor was a bust and Doctson didn't really break (nor any other downfield threat), may have allowed safeties to more readily tighten down on Crowder? 

 

Edited by markrc99

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

12-team PPR, TE premium, open since early May. I'll probably be drafting later this month. 

 

 

Nice, never played a TE premium scoring system before so I'll have to research. Will they have leagues in August or so? Just curious

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36 minutes ago, TPowell said:

 

Nice, never played a TE premium scoring system before so I'll have to research. Will they have leagues in August or so? Just curious

 

Yup, leagues up to week 1. I think the preseason will give me a better idea of Crowder's upside with his new QB. 

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47 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

Wait a minute, you were NOT wrong, you read it right, Crowder just didn't do enough. Consider that the "others" are not expressing the frustration of owning Crowder. Nor do they tell us why they didn't! Yeah, probably because they were all card-carrying members of the Terrelle Pryor cult! e; Former cult I should say, now defunct! e; You remember, it was a "no-brainer", the phenom teamed with a great QB...  I had mentioned that Crowder's snap/slot ratio seemed low but it isn't. So that's not it. That Pryor was a bust and Doctson didn't really break (nor any other downfield threat), may have allowed safeties to more readily tighten down on Crowder? 

 

 

I owned Crowder in multiple leagues last year, and he killed me to start the season. But he was a solid top-20 WR the second half of the year. He may not be getting enough love. 

 

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This guy is a bum that only shows up once a month or less. 

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15 minutes ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

This guy is a bum that only shows up once a month or less. 

Unless you look at weeks 8-12 of last season, when he didn't even have one bum game. He was banged up to start the year, but was a very good player once he got healthy. 

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Reed is the only receiver on the team that’s ever been above average.  He’s also the guy you can bet the house on getting injured.

 

If I was the coach, my plan would be ‘give the rookie RB 400+ carries’.

 

If I had to bet on one of the receivers (relative to ADP) it would be Richardson.  I could likely get him off waivers though...

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3 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Reed is the only receiver on the team that’s ever been above average.  He’s also the guy you can bet the house on getting injured.

 

If I was the coach, my plan would be ‘give the rookie RB 400+ carries’.

 

If I had to bet on one of the receivers (relative to ADP) it would be Richardson.  I could likely get him off waivers though...

 

That's just not true, as anyone who watched WAS last Thanksgiving can attest. 

 

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