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Adalberto Mondesi 2018 Outlook

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Up to 11 SB in 31 games so far to go with 3 HR. That projects to some nice numbers in the MI...though it's likely to come with a .230-.240 BA over the course of a full season. 

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Yeah it would be nice to see him take a walk... literally has 1. But he's keeping me from picking up Villar, pretty similar players.

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5 hours ago, MireLurker said:

Yeah it would be nice to see him take a walk... literally has 1. But he's keeping me from picking up Villar, pretty similar players.

 

Actually, he has two...July 10 and June 25. But the point remains the same...it sure would be nice to see him take a walk. And he needs to cut down on the Ks (31 in 104 AB, which is actually an improvement over 2016-17). The potential is there, but I"m thinking his lack of walks and K-rate are going to limit him to a sub-.250 BA. 

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So some guy at RW decided to write this blurb for Mondesi: 

Advice: Mondesi now has 12 steals in 33 games since arriving in the majors in June. He doesn't offer much upside in any other fantasy category, but the 23-year-old shortstop has quickly become a premier speedster.

 

So even though he has 9 HR in 236 AB this year (AAA and KC) and 14 HR in 390 AB last year and 7 HR in 236 AAA AB in 2016...he offers little upside in any other cat. Mkay. He obviously some power upside. 

 

Oh, and he hit his 4th HR tonight for KC (in 116 MLB AB). 

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The Royals are a joke and still seem to have something against this guy. Been hitting him 8th or 9th, or benched on sunday, and hitting behind such stalwarts as Rosell Herrera, Brett Phillips, Ryan O'Hearn and Alcides Escobar...

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On 8/13/2018 at 5:23 PM, MireLurker said:

The Royals are a joke and still seem to have something against this guy. Been hitting him 8th or 9th, or benched on sunday, and hitting behind such stalwarts as Rosell Herrera, Brett Phillips, Ryan O'Hearn and Alcides Escobar...

 

I understand what he's doing...I think. He's putting Mondesi's speed at the bottom of the order to flip the lineup. He and Merrifield make a pretty potent tandem from a speed perspective. But in putting him at the bottom, he's also keeping the pressure off a young hitter who hasn't found much success at the MLB level until this season. It's not like the Royals are going anywhere this year, so why not put Mondesi at the bottom, keep the pressure low, and let him find his way at the highest level. 

 

Aside from that, his walk rate is horrible, and his K rate is just as bad. He's a speed/top-of-the-order type of guy, and he's on a 150-game pace to walk 12 times and strike out 146 times. Imho, that's not No1 or No2 hitter material. His OBP is .295, and I don't think that belongs at the top. 

 

And that BA is going to come down. It's a solid .279 right now, but his BABIP is currently .364...I don't think he keeps it that high. His minor league BABIP is all over the place, but it's only been above .331 three times (including with KC this season) with more than 100 PAs. 

 

The tools are enticing. I believe he's a 15 HR, 40 SB guy if he gets 550 AB next year, but he simply isn't getting on base enough to justify putting him at the top of the order. And if you're not going to put him at the top, then I think his speed plays better at the bottom because he can flip the lineup and have Merrifield come up behind him. 

 

Personally, I believe Mondesi is hitting right where he belongs, for both him and the Royals. Jmho :). And I'm a Mondesi owner who loves his fantasy potential. 

Edited by Flyman75
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I get what you're saying, if this was a different team he was playing on. But on the other hand, he's a free-swinging contact guy - like the catcher they've been putting out in their cleanup spot for the last 6 years (.273 OBP this year, .298 career). And the guys I listed off who are hitting in front of him are rocking these OBPs themselves:

 

.294

.292

.300

.255

Throw in Dozier who was ahead of him last night - .273

 

He really should be hitting higher in this lineup to get himself more ABs.

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18 minutes ago, MireLurker said:

I get what you're saying, if this was a different team he was playing on. But on the other hand, he's a free-swinging contact guy - like the catcher they've been putting out in their cleanup spot for the last 6 years (.273 OBP this year, .298 career). And the guys I listed off who are hitting in front of him are rocking these OBPs themselves:

 

.294

.292

.300

.255

Throw in Dozier who was ahead of him last night - .273

 

He really should be hitting higher in this lineup to get himself more ABs.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with your points, but I believe the longterm there are higher expectations for Mondesi than those other guys. So if there are higher expectations for his future and you're a team going nowhere, then just put him at the bottom to keep the pressure low. He's getting plenty of PAs, imo. And to me, Salvy and Mondesi aren't really comparable. OBP is more important to me at the top of the lineup than it is in the middle. 

 

Mondesi struggled mightily his first two stints in the league. So for the sake of the future, let him sit at the bottom and figure out this MLB thing. I'd prefer that to sticking him at the top or at No2 and watch him cave under the pressure. 

 

Maybe they'll think he's ready over the final few weeks and move him up to give him some run at leadoff with Whit batting 2nd. 

Edited by Flyman75

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Today's game isn't over...but through 160 AB, he's sitting there with .269-27-7-19-17 line. 

 

tenor.gif?itemid=5951183

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It's feast or famine with him... [Removed Cool Story]

Edited by tonycpsu
Completed trades go in the Bench Coach forum.

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8 minutes ago, MireLurker said:

It's feast or famine with him...

 

I'm good with that in roto, as long as the final line ends up solid. 

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This dude is going to be a nice keeper in 2019, especially in leagues that use 10 GS or fewer for positional eligibility where he can be played at both 2B and SS. 

 

He hit his 7th HR today and is now sporting a .271-32-7-22-20 in 188 AB. That projects to an OUTSTANDING full season. However, I'm skeptical about his ability to keep hitting for a decent BA next year with his bb/k ratio and babip that is high for him. 

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On 6/17/2018 at 1:12 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Don't you mean a .160 BA?  Has he ever hit over .200 when called up to the majors before? 

 

Whoops, me bad.  Just looked it up.  He actually hit .185 the first call up and .170 the second time.  Guess he is better than a .160 batter.

 

Bottom line:  He would have great value if baseball allowed you to steal 1B.  Unfortunately for him they make you swing a stick at a round object instead.  A task Mondesi has yet to master.

 

I don't think it sticks next year, but he's hitting .284 now through 201 ABs this year. Stole his 22nd base tonight. The OBP is still a problem because he doesn't walk enough, but he has cut down his K% to 26 this year...which is a big improvement over his first two stints in the Majors. 

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This dude is ridiculous...combo meal tonight. If he does anything close to this next year, he's going to make an excellent keeper. 

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

This dude is ridiculous...combo meal tonight. If he does anything close to this next year, he's going to make an excellent keeper. 

 

His BB% is up to 5.7% the past month, and K% is down to 22.7% ! OBP is up to .345.
He is improving.

But whats totally insane, he is on pace to 20 HR 60 SB 90+ Runs and 70+ RBIs in a full season.

At the moment he looks better than Trea Turner, that how good that is. B)

Right now he is slotted to bat 2nd behind The Merriman, after he was hitting at the bottom after call up.
Even if (probably) he regresses next season, a 14-16 HR, 40+ SB, 75+ Run and 60+ RBI season is really good as a SS.
And what if he won't?

Edited by JCD
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5 hours ago, JCD said:

 

His BB% is up to 5.7% the past month, and K% is down to 22.7% ! OBP is up to .345.
He is improving.

But whats totally insane, he is on pace to 20 HR 60 SB 90+ Runs and 70+ RBIs in a full season.

At the moment he looks better than Trea Turner, that how good that is. B)

Right now he is slotted to bat 2nd behind The Merriman, after he was hitting at the bottom after call up.
Even if (probably) he regresses next season, a 14-16 HR, 40+ SB, 75+ Run and 60+ RBI season is really good as a SS.
And what if he won't?

 

Yeah I think I'd be happy with a regression pace back to .250-80-15-60-40, especially knowing that he's showing the chops right now to do more. The Royals appear to have their 1-2 punch at the top of the order next year. The problem will be who follows them to drive them in. Maybe Salvy's BA rebounds next year, and maybe Soler can stay healthy for a full season. O'Hearn obviously isn't going to hit a HR every 10 AB next year, but maybe they've found their 1B and maybe he can hit 25 bombs next season. Maybe the Royals sign a FA or two who make an impact, but their offense is still going to suck next year. 

 

That said, they have their table-setters at the top...at least, so it appears. I'm pretty excited to see what Mondesi can do with 550-600 ABs next year. 

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[Removed Cool Story] Wow. Will be a 2019 sleeper and keeper in dynasty leagues. Stud.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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