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Geronimo Allison 2018 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

rookie wr's usually have little impact in their 1st year and wr's taken in the 4th -5ht-6th rounds even less. 

Picking 3 wr's in my view means they wanted to add depth and they wanted to rebuild for going forward. They didn't take wr's who would make an immediate impact this season.

 

Fair enough regarding rookies, and true GB disinters raw talent and works with it over time, but Allison went undrafted for a reason. Since promoted from the practice squad, his biggest headlines have been getting arrested and then getting suspended (Goodell no likey the smokey). While I agree it's Allison's job to lose, I'd suggest he'll have to demonstrate prowess in order to keep it, and these three rookies will be practicing their arses off to become not just an NFL WR, but an NFL WR connected to Aaron Rodgers. I don't see Allison as a #3 lock at all. He should be nervous.

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On 6/7/2018 at 11:16 AM, ajs723 said:

If it works out, it could certainly be a home run. My only point is that there are a lot more variables still standing between Allison and a starting WR spot. It's still a long shot, but if you like the player, by all means go for it. 

i like that st. brown kid from ND???? something about him that spells possession wr.

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On 6/9/2018 at 11:25 AM, cohenstantinople said:

 

Fair enough regarding rookies, and true GB disinters raw talent and works with it over time, but Allison went undrafted for a reason. Since promoted from the practice squad, his biggest headlines have been getting arrested and then getting suspended (Goodell no likey the smokey). While I agree it's Allison's job to lose, I'd suggest he'll have to demonstrate prowess in order to keep it, and these three rookies will be practicing their arses off to become not just an NFL WR, but an NFL WR connected to Aaron Rodgers. I don't see Allison as a #3 lock at all. He should be nervous.

 

Its not a lock but do you really see a day 3 rookie pick starting in that offense?  Allison, regardless of what you think of his talent, has been in that offense for 2 years and it would take a breakout training performance from Moore, ESB, or Scantling to unseat him. 

 

I really dont get what people are missing here

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On 6/8/2018 at 9:50 PM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Lol. You have him rated over Garcon. 

 

I thought I was gonna pain myself to read through 18 long comments about geronimo Allison, but you saved me and allowed me to eject early. 

 

Wake me up if this hits page 2. Maybe I'll read from the top of that page. 

 

Can you please state the counter argument to Allison right now cause I don’t understand it

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6 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Its not a lock but do you really see a day 3 rookie pick starting in that offense?  Allison, regardless of what you think of his talent, has been in that offense for 2 years and it would take a breakout training performance from Moore, ESB, or Scantling to unseat him. 

 

I really dont get what people are missing here

 

Your's is a fair enough assessment, and it may work out like that, with GAllison the #3.

 

But consider: when Jordy was dismissed, Rodgers became vocal, saying that he wants more a of role in the decision-making process. The Pack drafted 3 WRs... if Rodgers likes just one of them and says to the coaching staff, "I want that guy on the field," you get the picture. More than seniority on the team, this #3 spot will be about chemistry. As a QB, Rodgers now has more sway in the decision-making process than any other helmsman. He's also hungrier than ever having watching the 2017 school-bus fire Packers from the sidelines. From where I sit, it could not be more clear that chemistry will reign: if Rodgers likes Geronimo, it's Geronimo. If he likes any of the rookies, or if he says, "Let's put Ty Montgomery in there as the #3 WR," the coaching staff will support him.

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51 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Your's is a fair enough assessment, and it may work out like that, with GAllison the #3.

 

But consider: when Jordy was dismissed, Rodgers became vocal, saying that he wants more a of role in the decision-making process. The Pack drafted 3 WRs... if Rodgers likes just one of them and says to the coaching staff, "I want that guy on the field," you get the picture. More than seniority on the team, this #3 spot will be about chemistry. As a QB, Rodgers now has more sway in the decision-making process than any other helmsman. He's also hungrier than ever having watching the 2017 school-bus fire Packers from the sidelines. From where I sit, it could not be more clear that chemistry will reign: if Rodgers likes Geronimo, it's Geronimo. If he likes any of the rookies, or if he says, "Let's put Ty Montgomery in there as the #3 WR," the coaching staff will support him.

I think this is correct from Aaron Rodger's perspective.  The cutting of Jordy, though, may be evidence that Rodgers has less influence on the new guy than he did on Thompson.

 

Also, even if Rodgers prefers others, Allison may end up getting major snaps anyway.  WR is a pretty tough position to play, and not all rookies can do what JuJu Smith-Schuster did last year.  As for Ty Montgomery, he will get hurt after a game or two and that will be it for him.

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The way I see it is GB throws it roughly 600 times this year:

 

-300 to Adams, Cobb, and Graham

-100 to RB's (incl. Montgomery)

 

Allison is first in line to soak up a chunk of the remaining 200 targets.  

 

In a PPR league, I don't see how you pass that up.

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7 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Its not a lock but do you really see a day 3 rookie pick starting in that offense?  Allison, regardless of what you think of his talent, has been in that offense for 2 years and it would take a breakout training performance from Moore, ESB, or Scantling to unseat him. 

 

I really dont get what people are missing here

 

 

Yeah the concerns of rookie wr's coming in and making an impact just doesnt fit with the history of GB pass catchers with rodgers as QB. I think you would need some injuries to happen starting with davante

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26 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

The way I see it is GB throws it roughly 600 times this year:

 

-300 to Adams, Cobb, and Graham

-100 to RB's (incl. Montgomery)

 

Allison is first in line to soak up a chunk of the remaining 200 targets.  

 

In a PPR league, I don't see how you pass that up.

That math is... weird. Are you suggesting Allison will compete to lead the team in targets?

 

There are 88 targets vacated from last season with the departure of Nelson. The Packers basically didn't throw to their TE last season, so those Jordy targets are basically going straight to Graham. I get that the Packers should throw more this year with a healthy Rodgers, but I think 50-60 targets to Allison is about his best case scenario. 

 

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13 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

That math is... weird. Are you suggesting Allison will compete to lead the team in targets?

 

There are 88 targets vacated from last season with the departure of Nelson. The Packers basically didn't throw to their TE last season, so those Jordy targets are basically going straight to Graham. I get that the Packers should throw more this year with a healthy Rodgers, but I think 50-60 targets to Allison is about his best case scenario. 

 

 

 

 every season people buy into the Capt Rodgers  will rain down passes on his TE  and it never seems to happen that way.

 i don't think graham is going to me see a ton of targets all over the field like when he was with the saints. i think he is going to make his money catching TD's  like he did in SEA  with the only difference being he will catch more of them. Sure he may benefit from the occasional big play when rodgers gets improvisational on a busted play but he is the red zone guy.

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This offense is not and will not succeed as a dink-and-dunk offense where the WR1 puts up #s and then a bunch of guys have 300-600 yards receiving and 2-3 touchdowns. The only times we've seen that with the Packers in the past are when the major contributors like Jordy or Cobb miss chunks of if not entire seasons and there is no one on the roster with enough experience running with the 1s to step up and get volume. 

 

I would hope and think that with this entire off-season a guy would emerge to be an every-snap WR2 and that guy would have a floor of 75/800/6 and a ceiling over 1000 yards and 10 tds. If I can get Allison, the guy who on paper has the best chance to secure that role, in the 13th round after the likes of Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, and Josh Doctson I'm taking it.  

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25 minutes ago, dashoe said:

i think he is going to make his money catching TD's  like he did in SEA  with the only difference being he will catch more of them. Sure he may benefit from the occasional big play when rodgers gets improvisational on a busted play but he is the red zone guy.

He had 95 targets last year, so 100 this year? There's no way they aren't planning on targeting Graham 5-6 times per game. That's not exactly a high prediction. 

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45 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

He had 95 targets last year, so 100 this year? There's no way they aren't planning on targeting Graham 5-6 times per game. That's not exactly a high prediction. 

 

That's my point he will be the enhanced jimmy from SEA not the return of the  Jimmy 2.0 from the Saints

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

That math is... weird. Are you suggesting Allison will compete to lead the team in targets?

 

There are 88 targets vacated from last season with the departure of Nelson. The Packers basically didn't throw to their TE last season, so those Jordy targets are basically going straight to Graham. I get that the Packers should throw more this year with a healthy Rodgers, but I think 50-60 targets to Allison is about his best case scenario. 

 

The opportunity is there to basically be a three down possession receiver.  I think Adams leads in targets easily, but Allison can challenge Cobb and Graham.

 

Big question is, and I have no idea really, does Geronimo Allison suck?

 

Edit: probably sucks, but I've got to find out.

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So far, there is no indication whatsoever that Geronimo Allison sucks.  Quite the contrary, in fact.  He's done well with his opportunities and climbed the depth chart.

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

That's my point he will be the enhanced jimmy from SEA not the return of the  Jimmy 2.0 from the Saints

I gotcha. I think I just misunderstood your point. 

 

2 hours ago, dogfightgiggle said:

The opportunity is there to basically be a three down possession receiver.  I think Adams leads in targets easily, but Allison can challenge Cobb and Graham.

 

Big question is, and I have no idea really, does Geronimo Allison suck?

 

Edit: probably sucks, but I've got to find out.

I don't think he sucks. I think he's a fine WR, I just think people are getting way too excited about his role. He's not leapfrogging Adams or Cobb in the pecking order. Plus Graham and Jones/Williams/Monty will have pass catching roles. He may be an every week upside WR4/5, but barring an injury, or multiple injuries ahead of him, he doesn't really have a path to winning lotto ticket upside. That's why there are others I'd prefer with that ticket. 

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31 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I gotcha. I think I just misunderstood your point. 

 

I don't think he sucks. I think he's a fine WR, I just think people are getting way too excited about his role. He's not leapfrogging Adams or Cobb in the pecking order. Plus Graham and Jones/Williams/Monty will have pass catching roles. He may be an every week upside WR4/5, but barring an injury, or multiple injuries ahead of him, he doesn't really have a path to winning lotto ticket upside. That's why there are others I'd prefer with that ticket. 

 

I think you’re understating the value of a starting outside WR for Aaron Rodgers.  Almost every year (I don’t have the time to provide full research on it) the starting outside WRs for Rodgers put up WR2/3 numbers.  Even with Graham there just being on the field that much with Rodgers offers a great TD ceiling and a pretty good TD floor as well.  Nobody is saying he has the upside to go 80/1200/10 but he can and should be a WR2 if he keeps the starting role outside just based on TDs alone and that’s an awesome value right now for where he’s being drafted.

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7 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I think you’re understating the value of a starting outside WR for Aaron Rodgers.  Almost every year (I don’t have the time to provide full research on it) the starting outside WRs for Rodgers put up WR2/3 numbers.  Even with Graham there just being on the field that much with Rodgers offers a great TD ceiling and a pretty good TD floor as well.  Nobody is saying he has the upside to go 80/1200/10 but he can and should be a WR2 if he keeps the starting role outside just based on TDs alone and that’s an awesome value right now for where he’s being drafted.

I do. In 10 years, Rodgers has only supported 3 receivers once or twice. In 2012 he did, but there was no pass catching option whatsoever out of the backfield that year, so there were a lot of looks for the wide receivers. In 2016, Nelson, Adams, and Cobb were all solid, but even then, Cobb's 60/610/4 was unspectacular. 

 

Interestingly, 2011 was the best chance to have 3 star WRs, but unfortunately, they had 4. If they could have combined Donald Driver and James Jones into one player, they would have had 3 star receivers.

 

Unless you believe Allison will outproduce Cobb, there's little reason to get overly excited. I think there's a good chance that the Packers get good production from WRs other than Cobb/Adams, but it will probably be split up between 2 or 3 guys. This is a team that will spread it out, so even if Allison solidifies the #3 job, Moore or ESB or someone will probably be on the field a lot too.  

 

 

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28 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I do. In 10 years, Rodgers has only supported 3 receivers once or twice. In 2012 he did, but there was no pass catching option whatsoever out of the backfield that year, so there were a lot of looks for the wide receivers. In 2016, Nelson, Adams, and Cobb were all solid, but even then, Cobb's 60/610/4 was unspectacular. 

 

Interestingly, 2011 was the best chance to have 3 star WRs, but unfortunately, they had 4. If they could have combined Donald Driver and James Jones into one player, they would have had 3 star receivers.

 

Unless you believe Allison will outproduce Cobb, there's little reason to get overly excited. I think there's a good chance that the Packers get good production from WRs other than Cobb/Adams, but it will probably be split up between 2 or 3 guys. This is a team that will spread it out, so even if Allison solidifies the #3 job, Moore or ESB or someone will probably be on the field a lot too.  

 

 

 

Thanks for the info.  I think it’s important to

differentiate between the production from specifically the X and Z WRs with Rodgers instead of looking at the overall production from the top 3 WRs.  I’ll do more research when im

off work, but I think it would be more indicative to look at how often the X and Z WRs have produced with Rodgers (understanding that it might be a little misleading with Jordy and Adams) and then how often has Cobb produced while one of the outside starting WRs has not.

 

Again I’ll look more into it tonight but even if you just look at the last two years Allison has seemingly always produced when Jordy or Adams has been hurt while Cobb’s production from the slot remained constant.  That indicates to me that the slot WR in that offense generally has pretty capped production (absent that one big Cobb year) while the outside WRs are receiving the more profitable targets.

 

Nevertheless, the stakes here are pretty low with Allison’s ADP and the fact that we are even having this discussion regarding his potential should indicate that he’s an awesome value

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5 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Thanks for the info.  I think it’s important to

differentiate between the production from specifically the X and Z WRs with Rodgers instead of looking at the overall production from the top 3 WRs.  I’ll do more research when im

off work, but I think it would be more indicative to look at how often the X and Z WRs have produced with Rodgers (understanding that it might be a little misleading with Jordy and Adams) and then how often has Cobb produced while one of the outside starting WRs has not.

 

Again I’ll look more into it tonight but even if you just look at the last two years Allison has seemingly always produced when Jordy or Adams has been hurt while Cobb’s production from the slot remained constant.  That indicates to me that the slot WR in that offense generally has pretty capped production (absent that one big Cobb year) while the outside WRs are receiving the more profitable targets.

 

Nevertheless, the stakes here are pretty low with Allison’s ADP and the fact that we are even having this discussion regarding his potential should indicate that he’s an awesome value

Agreed that the stakes are low, and he's a worthy flier. I just think some people need to temper expectations. 

 

Yes, there have been seasons with Rodgers where the X and Z receivers have produced, but look at who those players have been: Adams, Jordy, Jennings, Driver, even James Jones was a great red zone receiver. I'm just not sure Allison is in the conversation with those guys. He's probably more Jarrett Boykin than any of those receivers. 

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After looking at it not sure why geronimo wouldn't be the guy... who was the last rookie the pack let have serious run at wr that they weren't forced to start? Seems like adams was the last but only because of injury the rest have all had to bide time.... geronimo has waited 3 years this may be the one....jordys last healthy year has my pants getting tight but if geronimo gets half that he'll be worth the free price....

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I see Cobb playing the slot and G. Allison playing opposite of Davante all day. 

G. Allison is 6'3- I would not be surprised seeing him receiving 50 targets, but 12+ in the end zone. 

 

I'm all over him in dynasty and will take him as last round flier as a potential keeper in redraft/keeper leagues. 

I will be drafting him in my ROTO league too. 

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On 6/9/2018 at 2:25 PM, cohenstantinople said:

 

Fair enough regarding rookies, and true GB disinters raw talent and works with it over time, but Allison went undrafted for a reason.

 

Running a bad 40 was a huge part of it.

 

On 6/13/2018 at 1:47 AM, Chwf3rd said:

 

Its not a lock but do you really see a day 3 rookie pick starting in that offense?  Allison, regardless of what you think of his talent, has been in that offense for 2 years and it would take a breakout training performance from Moore, ESB, or Scantling to unseat him. 

 

I really dont get what people are missing here

 

I've always liked Allison, but don't sleep on Equanimeous St. Brown having a huge preseason and forcing himself into the picture.  Yes, they took two WRs before him, and he has issues....but he's got huge upside and he should look really good playing with his college QB against the 2s or 3s.  

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