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Geronimo Allison 2018 Outlook

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Just now, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Randall Cobb hasn't topped 700 yards receiving in 3 years. He hasn't had a good season in 4 years. 67th overall WR according to PFF last season.

 

He's not good, and hasn't been for awhile. The only reason he was on the team heading into this season was this ridiculous contract: 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/randall-cobb-7783/ .  

 

notice the 15M in dead money the last 2 seasons? Now it's only 3.6M. Bye Randall. 

I agree.  

 

Allison looks ready to play and Cobb is overpaid.  I think Cobb looked dominant in the last playoff game, but he needs to be out there every week.

 

I suppose Cobb could take a pay cut, but someone desperate out there would probably offer him more...

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Drafted Cobb in my league and would really like to know if he gets cut or traded. If either occur, I'm snagging Allison. If I had someone to drop atm I would grab him but I don't.

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Dang, I drafted Cobb but little did I know he may be cut, paving the way for Geronimo. So overall, you guys would rank Geronimo over Cobb in a 1PPR?

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4 minutes ago, jtbgator said:

Dang, I drafted Cobb but little did I know he may be cut, paving the way for Geronimo. So overall, you guys would rank Geronimo over Cobb in a 1PPR?

 

I would. 

 

The lazy analyst narrative of "Cobb is a value in round 8" is being exposed.

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10 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

I would. 

 

The lazy analyst narrative of "Cobb is a value in round 8" is being exposed.

I'm on the exact other end of the spectrum on this. I think ranking Allison above Cobb in PPR is borderline insane. 

 

Cobb is an established slot receiver who, when healthy, has had serious success with Rodgers. Allison is a guy who... is new and exciting, I guess. I don't think Allison is even going to consistently be on the field. 

 

Ultimately, I think Cobb will be in the slot, and the wideout opposite Adams will be filled by a committee. 

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52 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

I would. 

 

The lazy analyst narrative of "Cobb is a value in round 8" is being exposed.

 

 

Cobb was injured in 2016.

His injury in 2017 was Brett Hundley.

 

ALSO, the Packers were trying to mix in Adams with Jordy.  Nelson is gone, Graham is in.  Speculate.

 

Dec 11, 2016 NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Cobb was hampered with a nagging ankle injury that kept him out of the last two games of the regular season. He played in Week 15 but went without a catch, then sat out the following 2 games despite no apparent setback.
Oct 26, 2016 NFL Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Cobb injured his hamstring during practice and missed the Week 8 game.
Jan 16, 2016 NFL Chest Lung Puncture Cobb punctured a lung on a diving catch in the playoff loss at Arizona.

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57 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I'm on the exact other end of the spectrum on this. I think ranking Allison above Cobb in PPR is borderline insane. 

 

Cobb is an established slot receiver who, when healthy, has had serious success with Rodgers. Allison is a guy who... is new and exciting, I guess. I don't think Allison is even going to consistently be on the field. 

 

Ultimately, I think Cobb will be in the slot, and the wideout opposite Adams will be filled by a committee. 

 

See...this is why I drafted Cobb. Healthy Rodgers, Cobb in the slot...one of AR's favorite targets (off screens, bubbles, curl routes, etc). My gut says Cobb, given his historical chemistry with Rodgers. Cobb still has great YAC (yards afer catch). Shifty and quick.

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I think he’s a good speculative add for the next few weeks. If Cobb still is on the team, then feel free to drop. If Cobb gets cut, then jackpot!

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I'm on the exact other end of the spectrum on this. I think ranking Allison above Cobb in PPR is borderline insane. 

 

Cobb is an established slot receiver who, when healthy, has had serious success with Rodgers. Allison is a guy who... is new and exciting, I guess. I don't think Allison is even going to consistently be on the field. 

 

Ultimately, I think Cobb will be in the slot, and the wideout opposite Adams will be filled by a committee. 

 

Established doesn't mean good. Cobb has been bad since the 2015 MNF game vs KC. That's 3 seasons. Looking forward to seeing what Allison can do with the opportunity.

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very high on Allison, but there is something that everyone seems to be overlooking and that is the presence of Graham.  part of what makes GB WRs stand out over other WRs is the TD totals they get on top of yards.  in the past the WRs were the ones who were the primary red zone targets for Rodgers.  and while Graham isn't what he use to be, he can still be a very dangerous red zone target.  we could be looking at a case where the WRs, Adams and Allison get all the between the 20s work only to have Graham vulture the majority of TDs away.  so while i'm very happy to have shares of  Adams and Allison i won't be taking for granted the presence of Graham in the red zone.

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3 minutes ago, Panthor said:

very high on Allison, but there is something that everyone seems to be overlooking and that is the presence of Graham.  part of what makes GB WRs stand out over other WRs is the TD totals they get on top of yards.  in the past the WRs were the ones who were the primary red zone targets for Rodgers.  and while Graham isn't what he use to be, he can still be a very dangerous red zone target.  we could be looking at a case where the WRs, Adams and Allison get all the between the 20s work only to have Graham vulture the majority of TDs away.  so while i'm very happy to have shares of  Adams and Allison i won't be taking for granted the presence of Graham in the red zone.

 

And Graham could strain a hammy and be out 12 weeks catapulting Allison to super stardom

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His ceiling is probably lower end of James Jones numbers - so probably around 700 yards 5 TD. Great value at a slot in last round or two of a draft but odds are he will not hit that and there are probably players with even higher ceilings than that available also, so his value is average still. 

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Fair statement, but Rodgers has only produced a top 12 Tight End twice or something like that. Jermichael Finley in his prime wasn't too shabby and still... the WRs have always seemed to trump the TE. Maybe Graham could be different, but history is one of our best indicators.

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16 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

And Graham could strain a hammy and be out 12 weeks catapulting Allison to super stardom

And Allison could break his leg tomorrow and never play again. He has no track record of health, so what's your point?

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15 minutes ago, nine9s said:

His ceiling is probably lower end of James Jones numbers - so probably around 700 yards 5 TD. Great value at a slot in last round or two of a draft but odds are he will not hit that and there are probably players with even higher ceilings than that available also, so his value is average still. 

 

Cobb has been bad for a few years in a row...

 

If Rodgers and the offense is full strength, such as 2014 and 2016, the numbers need to go somewhere... That said, 700 Yds, 5 TD sound like Allison's floor, unless he completely blows his opportunity, of course.

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1 minute ago, austin316 said:

 

Cobb has been bad for a few years in a row...

 

If Rodgers and the offense is full strength, such as 2014 and 2016, the numbers need to go somewhere... That said, 700 Yds, 5 TD sound like Allison's floor, unless he completely blows his opportunity, of course.

 

I was just discounting James Jones numbers some to equate a ceiling. 

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3 minutes ago, austin316 said:

 

Cobb has been bad for a few years in a row...

 

If Rodgers and the offense is full strength, such as 2014 and 2016, the numbers need to go somewhere... That said, 700 Yds, 5 TD sound like Allison's floor, unless he completely blows his opportunity, of course.

How  many receptions in that scenario you mentioned? Your opinion? 

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13 minutes ago, MJ10162 said:

And Allison could break his leg tomorrow and never play again. He has no track record of health, so what's your point?

 

Graham has injury history.

 

Geronimo does not

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4 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Graham has injury history.

 

Geronimo does not

Allison has no history, there are dozens of players that performed well last year out of nowhere only to miss the remainder of the season due to injury. Your point is nonsensical.

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I don't mind taking a shot at him at the end of the draft for a chance to get Aaron Rodger's 2nd receiver.  Its not like you're paying a lot for him.  In a lot of leagues you can pick him up for free.  

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This is prob the most detailed Allison article I've come across (pardon the formatting):

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/21650/geronimo-allison-is-a-late-round-steal-in-fantasy-football

 

With the exodus of Jordy Nelson from the Packers, many have been turning to veteran wide receiver Davante Adams for some fantasy value. But, sometimes, you need to look beyond the obvious to get a leg up in your drafts.

Adams is a second-round pick (per Fantasy Football Calculator), and while he will likely be a very strong candidate to end the season as the top target in Green Bay, he comes at a premium cost. Taking him means passing on backs like Christian McCaffrey and Jerick McKinnon or even top tight end Rob Gronkowski.

No worries, though. If you want a piece of the pie in Green Bay, there's likely going to be some value elsewhere with Aaron Rodgers back under center. With Nelson gone, others around Adams will have to step up.

Randall Cobb is still with the team and should continue his success from the slot, but there's another option going even later in fantasy drafts that could return immense value this season -- and that's Geronimo Allison. Let's take a look at what will make Allison a great late-round target for your fantasy squads.

The Wide Receiver Situation

Between losing Nelson and some other minor ancillary pieces, the Packers watched 165 targets and 41.2% of their Air Yards from 2017 season go out the door, as well. Adams will be the number-one guy and Cobb is fully expected to be the second go-to receiver to fill the void in the Packers' passing attack. There's one issue with that thought process: we already know exactly what Cobb is.

In the last two years, Cobb has played more than 80% of his snaps from the slot. During this stretch, Nelson and Adams dominated the snaps out wide (we'll look at this later), and no other wideout outside of the three saw more than 39 targets. The player who got 39? Allison in 2017.

Jimmy Graham is also a new face in town for the Packers. Some project him to get considerable work, and that could be a hindrance to Allison getting his share of targets. I'm not scared of Jimmy. Since Aaron Rodgers became the starting QB in 2008 (10 seasons), he's only supported a top 12 TE three times, with only one of those times being top ten. Graham may have a role in this offense, but McCarthy's gameplan has been fairly static over the years and shouldn't be expected to change much.

The main takeaway here is that the Packers' top three wide receivers are due for significant work in the passing game if that trend remains the same. With Adams on the top outside role and Cobb returning to the slot, there is a need for another guy to step up on the outside, and if the Pack's current depth chart can be relied on, it's going to be the 24-year-old Allison.

"Geronimo!"

Allison may have been a late bloomer in terms of his football talent. He didn't play football during his sophomore and senior years of high school, and he played at a junior college before transferring to Illinois for two seasons. After that, he proceeded to go undrafted in the 2016 NFL draft, and was then signed by the Packers as a project piece. That project came to fruition rather quickly.

Unfortunately, the 2017 season will not provide much meaningful data, as Brett Hundley started most of the season in place of Rodgers. So, let's take a look at how well he performed in a limited role with Rodgers during the 2016 season -- his rookie season -- using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric.

NEP essentially uses historical play data -- including down-and-distance -- to determine a baseline expectation for each play, so earning more NEP per play would be seen as a good quality to have. In Allison's rookie season (the only season he's played with Rodgers), he had the highest Reception NEP per reception (1.72) and Reception NEP per target (0.94) of any receiver on the team.

 

While he only had 12 receptions that season, he amassed a whopping 202 yards at 16.8 yards per reception. This was a good litmus test to see if his game would transition to the NFL level, and it appears it did in the form of a big-play threat.

In 2017, Allison turned in more catches, but his per-catch yardage fell to 11.0 yards and his NEP marks -- 0.73 per reception and 0.43 per target -- both dropped, as well. However, it is worth noting that on the receiving end of Hundley, he averaged just 8.1 yards while he upped that to 12.8 with Rodgers at the helm. That includes 7 first downs and 3 catches of 13-plus yards on 23 attempts. The connection is there.

Projecting His Role

There have already been many reports out of camp that Allison has been the best bet to be the second outside receiver behind Adams. Given that, let's take a look at the target share for Packers receivers from 2014 to 2016 (not counting Rodgers' 2017 campaign), broken down by fantasy rank (per FFStatistics).

Packers - Target Share

2014

2015

2016

WR1

28.17%

22.51%

24.52%

WR2

23.69%

17.28%

19.52%

WR3

12.31%

16.06%

13.55%


For a bit of context, in 2015-16 Nelson suffered a torn ACL and sat out the season. In 2017, we don't have predictive data because of Rodgers' injury. If we were to use Hundley's numbers, we see a breakdown of 21.0% to WR1, 16.37% to WR2 and 15.66% to WR3 -- a more evenly distributed load to wideouts as well as other positions.

As for 2014 and 2016, we can see significant work being dealt to the top two passing options when Rodgers and his weapons are healthy. For reference, in these seasons, his WR1 finished as the 3rd and 2nd ranked fantasy WR, respectively. And as supporting evidence for Allison, Green Bay's WR2 finished as the WR11 and WR8, respectively.

We know opportunity is king, and Allison should get the chance to take advantage with so many targets to go around in the Packers' passing attack.

Conclusion

According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Allison currently has an ADP of 12.04 in 12-team PPR drafts . He's still only 24 years old and primed for a breakout under arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. People are sleeping on him, and I think it's time they wake up.

If history is any indicator, Allison is in line for a large role in what should be an elite offense (we have them ranked third). There's no reason that he can't be a fantasy WR3 with a ceiling that could exceed that were the chips to fall in his favor throughout the year.

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1 hour ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

How  many receptions in that scenario you mentioned? Your opinion? 

 

I'd say a classic James Jones 60 Rec 800 yards 6-7 TD is viable, but that was when Cobb was good... As touched on above, if Allison vaults to WR2, he can possibly end up somewhere in the top 15 fantasy WRs.

 

But we've seen players blow these opportunities before, but so far there is no evidence of that here.

 

In fact, he came up clutch in Cobb's absence Week 3 vs Cincy last year. Maybe I am repeating but he had 8 targets, 6 grabs, 122 yards, and a huge 70 yard play in OT to seal the victory. It reminds me of Devante Adams 7/117/1 in the 2015 playoff game vs Dallas his rookie year. making plays all over the place. The following year he was a hot fantasy draft pick (and would have done well if not for a Week 1 high ankle sprain).

 

I just dropped Cooper Kupp for this dude in a 10-team league. Kupp was my WR5 so I don't really care. Might not work out, but the positive "unknown" of Allison is more intriguing to me. And if not, I will recover and pick up someone else later. Just my two cents.

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2 hours ago, austin316 said:

This is prob the most detailed Allison article I've come across (pardon the formatting):

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/21650/geronimo-allison-is-a-late-round-steal-in-fantasy-football

 

With the exodus of Jordy Nelson from the Packers, many have been turning to veteran wide receiver Davante Adams for some fantasy value. But, sometimes, you need to look beyond the obvious to get a leg up in your drafts.

Adams is a second-round pick (per Fantasy Football Calculator), and while he will likely be a very strong candidate to end the season as the top target in Green Bay, he comes at a premium cost. Taking him means passing on backs like Christian McCaffrey and Jerick McKinnon or even top tight end Rob Gronkowski.

No worries, though. If you want a piece of the pie in Green Bay, there's likely going to be some value elsewhere with Aaron Rodgers back under center. With Nelson gone, others around Adams will have to step up.

Randall Cobb is still with the team and should continue his success from the slot, but there's another option going even later in fantasy drafts that could return immense value this season -- and that's Geronimo Allison. Let's take a look at what will make Allison a great late-round target for your fantasy squads.

The Wide Receiver Situation

Between losing Nelson and some other minor ancillary pieces, the Packers watched 165 targets and 41.2% of their Air Yards from 2017 season go out the door, as well. Adams will be the number-one guy and Cobb is fully expected to be the second go-to receiver to fill the void in the Packers' passing attack. There's one issue with that thought process: we already know exactly what Cobb is.

In the last two years, Cobb has played more than 80% of his snaps from the slot. During this stretch, Nelson and Adams dominated the snaps out wide (we'll look at this later), and no other wideout outside of the three saw more than 39 targets. The player who got 39? Allison in 2017.

Jimmy Graham is also a new face in town for the Packers. Some project him to get considerable work, and that could be a hindrance to Allison getting his share of targets. I'm not scared of Jimmy. Since Aaron Rodgers became the starting QB in 2008 (10 seasons), he's only supported a top 12 TE three times, with only one of those times being top ten. Graham may have a role in this offense, but McCarthy's gameplan has been fairly static over the years and shouldn't be expected to change much.

The main takeaway here is that the Packers' top three wide receivers are due for significant work in the passing game if that trend remains the same. With Adams on the top outside role and Cobb returning to the slot, there is a need for another guy to step up on the outside, and if the Pack's current depth chart can be relied on, it's going to be the 24-year-old Allison.

"Geronimo!"

Allison may have been a late bloomer in terms of his football talent. He didn't play football during his sophomore and senior years of high school, and he played at a junior college before transferring to Illinois for two seasons. After that, he proceeded to go undrafted in the 2016 NFL draft, and was then signed by the Packers as a project piece. That project came to fruition rather quickly.

Unfortunately, the 2017 season will not provide much meaningful data, as Brett Hundley started most of the season in place of Rodgers. So, let's take a look at how well he performed in a limited role with Rodgers during the 2016 season -- his rookie season -- using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric.

NEP essentially uses historical play data -- including down-and-distance -- to determine a baseline expectation for each play, so earning more NEP per play would be seen as a good quality to have. In Allison's rookie season (the only season he's played with Rodgers), he had the highest Reception NEP per reception (1.72) and Reception NEP per target (0.94) of any receiver on the team.

 

While he only had 12 receptions that season, he amassed a whopping 202 yards at 16.8 yards per reception. This was a good litmus test to see if his game would transition to the NFL level, and it appears it did in the form of a big-play threat.

In 2017, Allison turned in more catches, but his per-catch yardage fell to 11.0 yards and his NEP marks -- 0.73 per reception and 0.43 per target -- both dropped, as well. However, it is worth noting that on the receiving end of Hundley, he averaged just 8.1 yards while he upped that to 12.8 with Rodgers at the helm. That includes 7 first downs and 3 catches of 13-plus yards on 23 attempts. The connection is there.

Projecting His Role

There have already been many reports out of camp that Allison has been the best bet to be the second outside receiver behind Adams. Given that, let's take a look at the target share for Packers receivers from 2014 to 2016 (not counting Rodgers' 2017 campaign), broken down by fantasy rank (per FFStatistics).

Packers - Target Share

2014

2015

2016

WR1

28.17%

22.51%

24.52%

WR2

23.69%

17.28%

19.52%

WR3

12.31%

16.06%

13.55%


For a bit of context, in 2015-16 Nelson suffered a torn ACL and sat out the season. In 2017, we don't have predictive data because of Rodgers' injury. If we were to use Hundley's numbers, we see a breakdown of 21.0% to WR1, 16.37% to WR2 and 15.66% to WR3 -- a more evenly distributed load to wideouts as well as other positions.

As for 2014 and 2016, we can see significant work being dealt to the top two passing options when Rodgers and his weapons are healthy. For reference, in these seasons, his WR1 finished as the 3rd and 2nd ranked fantasy WR, respectively. And as supporting evidence for Allison, Green Bay's WR2 finished as the WR11 and WR8, respectively.

We know opportunity is king, and Allison should get the chance to take advantage with so many targets to go around in the Packers' passing attack.

Conclusion

According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Allison currently has an ADP of 12.04 in 12-team PPR drafts . He's still only 24 years old and primed for a breakout under arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. People are sleeping on him, and I think it's time they wake up.

If history is any indicator, Allison is in line for a large role in what should be an elite offense (we have them ranked third). There's no reason that he can't be a fantasy WR3 with a ceiling that could exceed that were the chips to fall in his favor throughout the year.

 

Exactly what I've been saying for months. His draft capital is the main reason he hasn't gotten the hype he deserves. 

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So can we compare Allison to say, Chris Godwin? Both similar situations, as far as available targets go. Tampa and GB Both have a outright #1 receiver, both have a legit tight end, both have a slot receiver. I'd like to think Allison has a higher ceiling and a very nice keeper pick in the late rounds. 

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