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Geronimo Allison 2018 Outlook

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18 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Why would people drop a talent like this that they just drafted?  Strong hold imo regardless of the Cobb situation.

A talent like what? He’s an undrafted jag whose value is based on opportunity. With Cobb he’s not much of a fantasy option. 

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1 minute ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

A talent like what? He’s an undrafted jag whose value is based on opportunity. With Cobb he’s not much of a fantasy option. 

Well if he's an undrafted jag then why would you have drafted him?  There are a bunch of real good undrafted free agents throughout the League. The guy is really talented and in one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Yes most value for any player comes from opportunity.  So we had Cobb,Adams and Jordy and they all ate.  Now Jordy is gone,   and now we have to wait for Cobb to be traded or released before Geronimo becomes a factor?  I don't buy that.  As far as your last line of your statement "With Cobb he's not much of a fantasy option."  So was Jordy not much of a fantasy option because of Cobb?  

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Rod Smith, Wes Welker, Tony Romo, Warren Moon, Priest Holmes, Arian Foster...

 

Just a few undrafted "jags", so the "undrafted" part is irrelevant.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, austin316 said:

Rod Smith, Wes Welker, Tony Romo, Warren Moon, Priest Holmes, Arian Foster...

 

Just a few undrafted "jags", so the "undrafted" part is irrelevant.

 

 

Those names are significant because they are anomalies. The undrafted part is not irrelevant. A very very low percentage of undrafted players do anything in the NFL.

 

It's not impossible for them to succeed,  but it's statistically less likely. 

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

Those names are significant because they are anomalies. The undrafyed part is not irrelevant. A very very low percentage of undrafted players do anything in the NFL.

 

It's not impossible for them to succeed,  but it's statistically less likely. 

Okay, sure. But he's on one of the most prolific offenses and you guys are debating his worth. Just pick him up and wait and see...

 

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1 minute ago, austin316 said:

Okay, sure. But he's on one of the most prolific offenses and you guys are debating his worth. Just pick him up and wait and see...

 

In a vacuum, I guess. But people are talking about dropping Cobb for him, and that's absurd. He's worth a deep bench spot, but he's not more valuable than a guy who's a lock for 80 plus catches. Some of us are just asking the hype train to pump its breaks. 

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5 minutes ago, austin316 said:

Rod Smith, Wes Welker, Tony Romo, Warren Moon, Priest Holmes, Arian Foster...

 

Just a few undrafted "jags", so the "undrafted" part is irrelevant.

 

 

 

Victor Cruz, Doug Baldwin, Adam Theilen, Kurt Warner...this has been going on for decades. 

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18 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

In a vacuum, I guess. But people are talking about dropping Cobb for him, and that's absurd. He's worth a deep bench spot, but he's not more valuable than a guy who's a lock for 80 plus catches. Some of us are just asking the hype train to pump its breaks. 

I guess it just matters if a fantasy owner is experienced enough to see and know patterns through the years and how bold they feel.

 

I wouldn't drop Cobb but I would add Geronimo if I owned Cobb. As I mentioned I did drop Cooper Kupp in a smallish 10-team league and have slept like a baby about it.

 

Someone dropped DeSean Jackson above. By the measure, it's not unreasonable to drop Cobb if you feel it in your plums.

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He's going to have a role in that offense + upside and be startable as a flex. It's not an argument that his current role + upside is worth the draft ADP and a roster spot on your team. Couple with the immediate lottery ticket of Cobb's release......

 

Assuming Cobb maintains his role, I'm expecting something like 55 / 800 / 6 for Geronimo. The trouble I'm having is if that baseline line is worth rostering over someone like Alfred Morris. 

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51 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

In a vacuum, I guess. But people are talking about dropping Cobb for him, and that's absurd. He's worth a deep bench spot, but he's not more valuable than a guy who's a lock for 80 plus catches. Some of us are just asking the hype train to pump its breaks. 

Cobb hasn’t had 80 catches once in the last 3 seasons, but he’s a “lock” to do it this year? 

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8 minutes ago, Blu Exile said:

Cobb hasn’t had 80 catches once in the last 3 seasons, but he’s a “lock” to do it this year? 

If he and Rodgers are healthy, absolutely. 

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Just now, ajs723 said:

If he and Rodgers are healthy, absolutely. 

 

And if Jordan Reed plays all 16 games, he's a lock to finish as the TE1 overall...

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1 hour ago, Bugs bunny said:

Well if he's an undrafted jag then why would you have drafted him?  There are a bunch of real good undrafted free agents throughout the League. The guy is really talented and in one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Yes most value for any player comes from opportunity.  So we had Cobb,Adams and Jordy and they all ate.  Now Jordy is gone,   and now we have to wait for Cobb to be traded or released before Geronimo becomes a factor?  I don't buy that.  As far as your last line of your statement "With Cobb he's not much of a fantasy option."  So was Jordy not much of a fantasy option because of Cobb?  

 

He's a WR that is neither fast nor quick. He is tall and has a good catch radius/good hands though, which he'll need since he won't be gaining much separation vs DB's and will have to catch everything in tight windows and in traffic

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12 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

And if Jordan Reed plays all 16 games, he's a lock to finish as the TE1 overall...

Right, because Cobb has only played in 61/64 possible games the last 4 years, and about 90% of the games in his career. Clearly as unreliable as Jordan Reed who's started 24/64 games the last 4 years. 

 

You can be excited about Allison without ridiculously overstating Cobb's flaws. 

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2 hours ago, Bugs bunny said:

Why would people drop a talent like this that they just drafted?  Strong hold imo regardless of the Cobb situation.

I would because I don’t hold WR3s, even if Rodgers is throwing the ball. I’d want a guy who will be on the field and getting a fair amount of targets. Not sure that will happen if Cobb still around.

 

If Cobb is not cut, I suppose he could still get traded, but I’m not going to stick around long enough with Allison just to find out.

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I think adams cobb allison and graham call get 900 to 1100 yards and 8 tds. Do I think rodgers is going to target one of these guys like 15 times per game? Honestly no I do not. Also I think there will be formations a percentage of the time where jimmy graham is lined up as an outside wr and mercedews lewis is the te. Allison will prob be off the field in these formations. I think adams of all of the packers wr is the one prob most overvalued or overdrafted is as if he has top 4 upside and I do not see it with adams. I think Adams is being drafted at his ceiling.

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3 minutes ago, ilovepelas said:

I think adams cobb allison and graham call get 900 to 1100 yards and 8 tds. Do I think rodgers is going to target one of these guys like 15 times per game? Honestly no I do not. Also I think there will be formations a percentage of the time where jimmy graham is lined up as an outside wr and mercedews lewis is the te. Allison will prob be off the field in these formations. I think adams of all of the packers wr is the one prob most overvalued or overdrafted is as if he has top 4 upside and I do not see it with adams. I think Adams is being drafted at his ceiling.

Huh? That's 4000 yards and 32 TDs to 4 guys. If that happens, Rodgers will have the greatest season ever. 

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Huh? That's 4000 yards and 32 TDs to 4 guys. If that happens, Rodgers will have the greatest season ever. 

Peyton did 1000/10 to 3 different guys in 2004, but that was 2 Top 10 all-time receivers (and Brandon Stokely :D). That's not happening with the Packers this year with 4 guys, least of all Graham wrt yardage.

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31 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Right, because Cobb has only played in 61/64 possible games the last 4 years, and about 90% of the games in his career. Clearly as unreliable as Jordan Reed who's started 24/64 games the last 4 years. 

 

You can be excited about Allison without ridiculously overstating Cobb's flaws. 

 

You're making my point. Cobb has played all those games yet has still been garbage for the past 2.5 seasons...he has no excuse.  At least we know on a PPG basis that Reed is a top-2 at worst TE.

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44 minutes ago, Blood Brother said:

 

He's a WR that is neither fast nor quick. He is tall and has a good catch radius/good hands though, which he'll need since he won't be gaining much separation vs DB's and will have to catch everything in tight windows and in traffic

 

I beg to differ...

 

 

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32 minutes ago, CooL said:

I would because I don’t hold WR3s, even if Rodgers is throwing the ball. I’d want a guy who will be on the field and getting a fair amount of targets. Not sure that will happen if Cobb still around.

 

If Cobb is not cut, I suppose he could still get traded, but I’m not going to stick around long enough with Allison just to find out.

Hey if your in league where there's no need to roster WR 3's then I suppose he's not your guy.   That fine, in your case he's a drop.  I just don't understand the idea that Cobb has to be gone for Geronimo to be productive in fantasy or real life.

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49 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

If he and Rodgers are healthy, absolutely. 

Cobb isn't good anymore. He hasn't been good in a long time. After multiple years of suckage and disappoint eventually you have to stop making excuses and except the facts for what they are. I would take the under on 80 catches for Cobb this season all day.

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8 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

You're making my point. Cobb has played all those games yet has still been garbage for the past 2.5 seasons...he has no excuse.  At least we know on a PPG basis that Reed is a top-2 at worst TE.

First, that's most assuredly NOT the point you were attempting to make. You were trying to say that Cobb is injury prone. Hence the comparison to Reed, the most notoriously injury prone player in all of football. 

 

However, since you've now blatantly moved the goalposts, I'll bite. 

 

As I already pointed out, Cobb played at a 92 catch, 912 yard pace last year with Rodgers. 

 

The year before, he played at a 75 catch pace in 13 healthy games. 

 

The year before, he caught 79 passes.

 

So he's played around an 80 catch per year rate with Rodgers over 2 plus seasons worth of games the last 3 years. 

 

That may be garbage to you,  but it isn't to me. 

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Just now, Blu Exile said:

Cobb isn't good anymore. He hasn't been good in a long time. After multiple years of suckage and disappoint eventually you have to stop making excuses and except the facts for what they are. I would take the under on 80 catches for Cobb this season all day.

That's how you feel, but the stats, which I've provided, don't back that up at all. With Rodgers, Cobb has been very good. 80 sounds like the right over under for Cobb receptions. 

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