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2 hours ago, Jason497 said:

Matt Breida...

 

Has to get healthy himself first. You can’t Wally Pipp someone if you are also injured.

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7 hours ago, gbill2004 said:

Didn't this dude Zay get into trouble this offseason where he was running around with his bare but cheeks all over a TMZ video?

 

If only.

 

The nakedness was not the issue. The fact that he was screaming for Jesus and desiring to jump out through a window and couldn't be restrained by his brother while naked in a hotel hallway was more the issue.

 

giphy.gif

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I'm targeting Jeremy Hill late in drafts. This guy is going to be the GL back and get more work than everyone thinks...

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57 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

I'm targeting Jeremy Hill late in drafts. This guy is going to be the GL back and get more work than everyone thinks...

 

Just like Gillislee last year.

 

Everyone had a big belly full of laughter and middle fingers out to their league mates until week 3 when that finger turned on the TV screen and the Bastard in the Hoodie that no one can ever predict.

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Yeah no pats rb this year to be trusted... sleeper... I'll say zay jones lots of good press surrounding him after incident at least once a week he's doing something nice for a local family in Buffalo....seems to be getting back his wits after completely losing them... they want him to be the guy... he should be jarvis Landry light if he can get back on the field soon...

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On 8/5/2018 at 11:22 AM, Boudewijn said:

 

Here are my first thoughts of the RBs you may find post pick #100. I am looking for guys that have a path to fantasy relevance. None of these guys will make it big from day one, but the clearer the path, the better.


I get there by a process of elimination, so first a couple offenses I want no part of:

 

Then some offenses I do like:
- GB / Aaron Jones / Jamaal Williams / Ty Montgomery
- Det / Kerryon Johnson / LeGarrette Blount / Theo Riddick
- Cle / Carlos Hyde / Duke Johnson / Nick Chubb
- Was / Derrius Guice / Chris Thompson / Samaje Perine
Here the problem is there are too many options. Hyde, Duke or Chubb? Maybe it's an RBBC, maybe one of these guys breaks out (clearly there's no lack of talent here), but I can't have all three so I will have neither. I have bolded three guys that I think are the steal because of how low they go, but you may have other favorites.

On the other hand, the following are to me great pairs of RBs and if I could, I'd have both:

So, that leaves me with the following guys who I see as "early" sleepers, with the average ADP based on FantasyPros: 
103.7    C.J. Anderson CAR (4): first up behind CMC, and of course Cam (I realise that's a problem). I don't think he will be super productive from week 1, but his time will come.
127.7    D'Onta Foreman HOU (10): behind Lamar Miller. I can see him getting a good share.
138.7    Latavius Murray MIN (10): behind Dalvin Cook. ex-Pats (hehe) often don't score as well outside the Pats offense, so there is definitely a chance for Latavius to get some of his own here.
141.7    Devontae Booker DEN (10): Royce is the new kid on the block, and that's a potential stud, but Booker isn't dead yet.
I will probably try to get 1 or 2 of these 4 for my bench, depending on how well I did in the first 7 rounds; I'll be hoping for 500-800 yrds production from these guys.

And "deep sleepers":
186    Spencer Ware KC (12): This guy is ridiculously cheap behind Hunt. OK, he missed all of 2017, but have we forgotten 2016? That was pretty ok, right?
214    Chris Ivory BUF (11): I'm not really a believer in McCoy. They're going to need Ivory, and then some.
251    Wayne Gallman NYG (9): yeah ok, don't draft him, he will be on the wire. But of Saquon fails, I don't think JStew is going to replace him, and Gallman will be relevant.
On a very deep bench, I think there could be place for one of these; I hope it's Spencer.

Next up, WRs. In the meantime, please point out all my mistakes, misunderstandings and mysterious evaluations. Thanks!

Edit: @Dreams And Dwightmares, I see now that I dissed Booker and Ivory (a bit) in your post, and now I give them as sleepers :P 

 

 

Thought I replied to this last week, but just realized that I didn't.  I also noticed you spell realized like a Brit / Canadian / Other lol.  Queen's English hates the 'z's' I suppose.

 

Offenses you hate:

 

If you don't like them, you don't like them, and I get it.  I won't try to dissuade you from not liking some of those offenses you want no part of, but I may not totally agree.

 

Offenses you like:

 

If you wanna Roll w/ Blount go for it.  I hate being strapped to TD dependent guys like that though. Generally if you drafted right you aren't counting on them as your every week starter and just need them in a BYE or a pinch.  Those are the weeks they get you 12 carries for 40 yards and 0 TDs every single time.  On your bench though... TD, TD, TD.  If you like him, go for it though. 

 

TyM is one of my highest ranked "high flyers' so definite agreement. 

 

Browns won't be touching w/ a 10' pole.  I think Hyde is much better than Chubb too, but I want no part in a 3 headed RBBC until 1 of the heads are chopped off due to injury (or traded like AP in Saints last year). 

 

CT25 is a huge risk because you are drafting into an injury.  For me personally, those NEVER work out well, so I will avoid 100% even though I really had been hoping his recovery had gone better and I'd be able to make him apart of my team(s).

 

High Flyers:

 

CJA - Agreement

Lat-V - Love the player, not sure I see the opportunity to be fantasy relevant

Booker - Agreement; and I don't care about 1 preseason game... yet.  Today, I still choose Booker over Freeman.  Definitely something I'm watching closely, because I might have to backpedal on that one eventually.

Foreman - no thanks.  I don't touch guys with Achilles probs for at least a season removed; I'm all over Miller this year.

 

Deep Sleepers:

 

I only like Ivory on the threat of Shady suspension. Probably wouldn't touch the others, but if they work out, I'll back if you try to hype yourself up in a thread later.

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17 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I also noticed you spell realized like a Brit / Canadian / Other lol. 

Got me :) (my avatar - Kurt Warner in Amsterdam Admirals uniform - is supposed to be a bit of a hint)

With regards to the rest, I've already changed my mind considerably on a number of the statements, so I'll try to review all of that later this week. Thanks for all the well thought out feedback! 

 

Edited by Boudewijn
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Feel like Ty Boyd should get a little more love here... Bengals could be going back to times of Marvin Jones...plus doesn't look as frail as AJ...

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22 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Thought I replied to this last week, but just realized that I didn't.  I also noticed you spell realized like a Brit / Canadian / Other lol.  Queen's English hates the 'z's' I suppose.

 

Offenses you hate:

 

If you don't like them, you don't like them, and I get it.  I won't try to dissuade you from not liking some of those offenses you want no part of, but I may not totally agree.

 

Offenses you like:

 

If you wanna Roll w/ Blount go for it.  I hate being strapped to TD dependent guys like that though. Generally if you drafted right you aren't counting on them as your every week starter and just need them in a BYE or a pinch.  Those are the weeks they get you 12 carries for 40 yards and 0 TDs every single time.  On your bench though... TD, TD, TD.  If you like him, go for it though. 

 

TyM is one of my highest ranked "high flyers' so definite agreement. 

 

Browns won't be touching w/ a 10' pole.  I think Hyde is much better than Chubb too, but I want no part in a 3 headed RBBC until 1 of the heads are chopped off due to injury (or traded like AP in Saints last year). 

 

CT25 is a huge risk because you are drafting into an injury.  For me personally, those NEVER work out well, so I will avoid 100% even though I really had been hoping his recovery had gone better and I'd be able to make him apart of my team(s).

 

High Flyers:

 

CJA - Agreement

Lat-V - Love the player, not sure I see the opportunity to be fantasy relevant

Booker - Agreement; and I don't care about 1 preseason game... yet.  Today, I still choose Booker over Freeman.  Definitely something I'm watching closely, because I might have to backpedal on that one eventually.

Foreman - no thanks.  I don't touch guys with Achilles probs for at least a season removed; I'm all over Miller this year.

 

Deep Sleepers:

 

I only like Ivory on the threat of Shady suspension. Probably wouldn't touch the others, but if they work out, I'll back if you try to hype yourself up in a thread later.

Booker over Freeman? Feel like writing is on the wall... I'd rather avoid than pick booker...and if I'm going one it's the rook who took it to the house last night... vintage TD 

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19 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Browns won't be touching w/ a 10' pole.  I think Hyde is much better than Chubb too, but I want no part in a 3 headed RBBC until 1 of the heads are chopped off due to injury (or traded like AP in Saints last year). 

This is one of the points where I've changed my mind. The Browns O-line looked absolutely pathetic trying to protect Chubby, annd I'm not sure eiither Duke or Hyde will do much better. I'll see them on the waiver.
 

24 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

CT25 is a huge risk because you are drafting into an injury. 

True, but you have to remember he was around ADP 135 when I wrote that, plus I didn't include him in my final list. He was just one of the considerations.

With Guice out he'll be rising rapidly (<100), way beyond where I would even consider him.

25 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Deep Sleepers:

 

20 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Foreman - no thanks.  I don't touch guys with Achilles probs for at least a season removed;

Yep, I had missed that injury. Totally agree.

 

26 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

- Det / Kerryon Johnson / LeGarrette Blount / Theo Riddick

Here I'm slowly shifting towards Kerryon. At ADP #80 he might still be a steal.

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3 minutes ago, hard1 said:

Booker over Freeman? Feel like writing is on the wall... I'd rather avoid than pick booker...and if I'm going one it's the rook who took it to the house last night... vintage TD 

No, that's not how I meant it. It's just that I think Booker at #140 (now risen to #120) is a steal given the chance he has. I'm taking ADP and competition very much into account; for these sleepers/deep sleepers I fully expect them to be bench warmers for the first couple weeks, but I'm looking for the guy that can take over in case of injury or bad performance.

Booker/Freeman seems to be a very unclear/timeshare situation. Booker is listed by some as the starter but of course them drafting Freeman means he's going to see sufficient playing time early on so personally I expect Feeman to be the lead early on. We'll need to see how this plays out.

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5 minutes ago, hard1 said:

Booker over Freeman? Feel like writing is on the wall... I'd rather avoid than pick booker...and if I'm going one it's the rook who took it to the house last night... vintage TD 

 

Every single preseason since the dawn of time one week we all flip and then the next week we all flop. 

 

What're you gonna say after week 2 when Freeman has 4 bad touches and Booker gets a TD? 

 

My mind is always at a certain spot going into every preseason on a player. The only outcomes for me are :

 

1) Validated - continue to pursue 

2) Feeling uneasy - abort on said player

 

If after 4 weeks (3) we see more of the same of week 1 I'll likely just end up bailing on Booker, but it will just mean that I likely don't touch anyone in this backfield for better or worse. 

 

Plus Freeman is at #53 overall. 0% chance I touch that. If I miss out I miss out, but I'm not sinking that coin when I had more confidence in the "backup" going into the preseason. 

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9 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Just like Gillislee last year.

 

Everyone had a big belly full of laughter and middle fingers out to their league mates until week 3 when that finger turned on the TV screen and the Bastard in the Hoodie that no one can ever predict.

The difference here is that Hill’s ADP is 257; Gillislee was going in the 4th or 5th round.

 

Hill had a promising game Thursday, not that production against 2’s and 3’s means a blessed thing. He made a special teams tackle on kick coverage. He also converted a slick third down reception where he had to gain about 6 yards after the catch to keep his TD drive going.

 

He’s only 25. He’s the only RB on the roster who’s ever handled anything close to a full season NFL workload. He’s a proven commodity at the goal line. He should be drafted in all leagues, especially when the cost is negligible. 

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46 minutes ago, Div1726 said:

The difference here is that Hill’s ADP is 257; Gillislee was going in the 4th or 5th round.

 

Hill had a promising game Thursday, not that production against 2’s and 3’s means a blessed thing. He made a special teams tackle on kick coverage. He also converted a slick third down reception where he had to gain about 6 yards after the catch to keep his TD drive going.

 

He’s only 25. He’s the only RB on the roster who’s ever handled anything close to a full season NFL workload. He’s a proven commodity at the goal line. He should be drafted in all leagues, especially when the cost is negligible. 

 

You're convincing me to move him up my high flyers list, but when / if I make this move I'm going to need you to cover the cost of my "just for men" hair dye when I gray out at an accelerated rate this year 

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12 hours ago, hard1 said:

Feel like Ty Boyd should get a little more love here... Bengals could be going back to times of Marvin Jones...plus doesn't look as frail as AJ...

 

The whole Bengals offense probably. They're my bargain team this season with the hype surrounding other teams. Even Green and Mixon having some skeptics. And if you remember when their offense was in the top half of the league, Dalton was good too. He's virtually going undrafted. 

 

Keep an eye on Auden Tate too. He should be in a lot of redzone packages for them too. 

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I have been ripping on Hill for years, but things are shaking out well for him this year in New England, so far.  Hill could be item no. 3432465 in the library of surprisingly excellent BB reclamation projects.

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53 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

 

The whole Bengals offense probably. They're my bargain team this season with the hype surrounding other teams. Even Green and Mixon having some skeptics. And if you remember when their offense was in the top half of the league, Dalton was good too. He's virtually going undrafted. 

 

Keep an eye on Auden Tate too. He should be in a lot of redzone packages for them too. 

 

I am fading Bengals myself. Think they are in for a brutal year. 

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52 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

 

The whole Bengals offense probably. They're my bargain team this season with the hype surrounding other teams. Even Green and Mixon having some skeptics. And if you remember when their offense was in the top half of the league, Dalton was good too. He's virtually going undrafted. 

 

Keep an eye on Auden Tate too. He should be in a lot of redzone packages for them too. 

Tate is a deep call... I don't think the volume will be there, but boyd could catch 70 this year...definitely agree bengals being slept on though 

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7 minutes ago, hard1 said:

Tate is a deep call... I don't think the volume will be there, but boyd could catch 70 this year...definitely agree bengals being slept on though 

 

Even regardless of how the Bengals offense does, there's 89 targets up for grabs from LaFell, and basically Boyd and Ross there to absorb them.  Boyd had 32 targets of his own (in only 10 games), so there's at least 120 targets up for grabs, and I think it will really come down to how those are split between Boyd and Ross.  

 

And that's even before counting in any improvements the offense will see, which you'd have to assume will be coming with the O-line additions they've made.  If you end up with an offense that's as productive as some of Dalton's better years, you're again looking at 50-80 more passes than he threw last year.

 

One of Boyd or Ross will likely be fantasy relevant this year, it's just a matter of picking who.  Ross has the draft pedigree, but Boyd has a couple years in the offense and familiarity with Dalton.  If the early word that Boyd will be the #2 and slot receiver in 3-WR sets is true, then I agree 70 catches is very attainable.

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Thought I'd start a new one, as I'm thinking of changing up my late draft strategy this year and I'm looking for some names...

 

I've typically been a Def/K in rounds 15-16 guy. Which means in rounds 13-14 I'm taking some WR or RB that is probably not going to pan out, but looks to be the best on the board at that ADP. And then by week 3, I've cut those guys for whatever shiny thing I've found on the WW. 

 

I'm thinking of changing it up this year. Use rounds 13-14 for my D/ST and K. Then use rounds 15 and 16 for players that I think will probably go safely undrafted otherwise but who I have an inkling might do something. I figure this helps me in two ways:

 

1. It means that I get my pick of the better D/ST and K so I have less need to stream them week-to-week.

2. I get those shiny WW guys before there's any competition for them. Worst case I just cut them like I would my rd 13-14 guys.

 

Ideally I'll have about 4-5 names here, just in case some of these players get snapped up by other players late by teams who have a "good feeling" about them.

 

So who do you have? Again, the criteria for these players is:

 

Likely to be undrafted. Owned in  <10-15% of leagues. Currently showing ADP below that of your typical D/ST and K run in the 15-16th rounds, so ADP in the 180-190+ range.

 

For me, I'm looking at Mike Gesicki here. I think TE is one of those positions where you can make hay with a dart throw, because outside the top few guys, TE is already a wasteland. So all you need is a TE1 to justify the pick, but the upside of a high-end TE1 over a low-end TE1 is worth it. I think Gesicki was brought in as a pass-catcher. His measurables are off the charts. Fins fans are going ape over him, but he doesn't seem to have any national press yet. And apparently he's got good rapport with Tannehill already. 

 

Who else you got? 

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My pick is borderline but I would say Jeremy Hill of the Patriots.  He went undrafted in my 14 team league but that big back role for the Patriots is wide open at least for the early part of the season with Michel injured and Burkhead also one hit to the knee away from injured reserve.  Hill's only competition right now imo is Gillislee and he has outperformed him in both preseason games so far.

 

Another one not being drafted in most leagues yet is rb Jonathan Williams of the Saints who will likely open the year in the Ingram role.   

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