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13 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

"I agree, but the problem here is Luck, who is currently restricted to lifting huge dumbbells and throwing whiffleballs. Taking a chance on Grant means also taking a chance on Luck, as Brissett ain’t turning Grant into a reliable WR2." 

 

You really need to snap out of it, bud. This anti-Andrew Luck cult you're in is going belly-up! The only thing that's going to happen is you retracting & denouncing your $h!+ membership. The entire premise hinging on: oh, he hasn't throw the ball for however long. Which was total BS. Now it's: oh, he hasn't thrown an "official" NFL ball yet... 

 

This is you in a matter of weeks! :lol:

 

giphy.gif

 

Andrew Luck is going to be launching missiles, 80-yd howitzers....on a rope!   

 

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44 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

You really need to snap out of it, bud. This anti-Andrew Luck cult you're in is going belly-up! The only thing that's going to happen is you retracting & denouncing your $h!+ membership. The entire premise hinging on: oh, he hasn't throw the ball for however long. Which was total BS. Now it's: oh, he hasn't thrown an "official" NFL ball yet... 

 

This is you in a matter of weeks! :lol:

 

giphy.gif

 

Andrew Luck is going to be launching missiles, 80-yd howitzers....on a rope!   

 

 

I wish I had a hat like that.

 

I'm not part of the anti-Luck contingent. I'm part of the Luck dynasty owners club. As such, I am hopeful, hopeful, hopeful, and I pray twice a day. Love Luck's ability. Love Luck's sportsmanship. And I expect Luck to return to form at some point. But kickoff is 89.5 days away and the man is not throwing footballs, and if you think Luck is 100% guaranteed to return in 3 months and be at 100% efficiency you should start sharing whatever you're smoking.

 

And if you're targeting Ryan Grant with the hopes of utilizing him as your WR2 (the point of my post), counting on Luck being the old Luck from 2016 or 2014 (remembering Luck's lacerated kidney causing him to miss half the season in 2015), ugh...  Remember, this labrum tear in his shoulder is actually from September 2015, and he played widening the tear all the way through to December 2016, was operated on one month later. Now, 16 months later he's still not throwing a football. Keep your fingers crossed for the next 89.5 days, but the size of Luck's guns only help him win over the bikinis at the beach and don't equate to 100% efficiency with 100% certainty.

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8 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

No, that's fair--you're just looking at it from the point of view of starting 50 WRs every week, and I'm looking at it from the point of view of your typical FF player of 10-12 team leagues, in which a WR30-36 isn't even startable on most teams in the playoff hunt.  To be worth drafting in 90% of the world's leagues, a "sleeper" has to be someone with the potential to contribute to your team, not just someone who's worth a bench slot on your team all season.  But if we slap a big red disclaimer on your claim:

 

CAUTION:  This is for leagues with 16 or more owners ONLY!!!

 

...then I'm good with Hurns being a legit sleeper.

My thing with Hurns is the vacated targets, lack of red zone receiving options, and the fact that he produced in '15 with Bortles. 

 

I wouldn't necessarily say the book is written on Dak yet either.

 

How about this?  Hurns had nearly a 70% catch rate last year.  Dez was in the low 50's. 

 

I say Hurns can best Dez's numbers from last season.

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4 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

I wish I had a hat like that.

 

I'm not part of the anti-Luck contingent. I'm part of the Luck dynasty owners club. As such, I am hopeful, hopeful, hopeful, and I pray twice a day. Love Luck's ability. Love Luck's sportsmanship. And I expect Luck to return to form at some point. But kickoff is 89.5 days away and the man is not throwing footballs, and if you think Luck is 100% guaranteed to return in 3 months and be at 100% efficiency you should start sharing whatever you're smoking.

 

And if you're targeting Ryan Grant with the hopes of utilizing him as your WR2 (the point of my post), counting on Luck being the old Luck from 2016 or 2014 (remembering Luck's lacerated kidney causing him to miss half the season in 2015), ugh...  Remember, this labrum tear in his shoulder is actually from September 2015, and he played widening the tear all the way through to December 2016, was operated on one month later. Now, 16 months later he's still not throwing a football. Keep your fingers crossed for the next 89.5 days, but the size of Luck's guns only help him win over the bikinis at the beach and don't equate to 100% efficiency with 100% certainty.

 

Well then, good to know I was .... instrumental in you coming to your senses.... e; Ryan Grant is so far back there, a guy you get w/o investing any draft capital! You say Luk hasn't thrown, but that's just a "NFL regulation" football, which is an oxymoron if you ask me. I gotta go... But when was the last time Tom Brady threw an "NFL" legit football? Careful.... e; 

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12 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

No, that's fair--you're just looking at it from the point of view of starting 50 WRs every week, and I'm looking at it from the point of view of your typical FF player of 10-12 team leagues, in which a WR30-36 isn't even startable on most teams in the playoff hunt.  To be worth drafting in 90% of the world's leagues, a "sleeper" has to be someone with the potential to contribute to your team, not just someone who's worth a bench slot on your team all season.  But if we slap a big red disclaimer on your claim:

 

CAUTION:  This is for leagues with 16 or more owners ONLY!!!

 

...then I'm good with Hurns being a legit sleeper.

That's not entirely true.  I play in a 12 team dynasty where we start 2 RBs, 4 WRs, and 2 FLEX every week.  I imagine I'm not alone there either.

 

Sure, the WR43 isn't anything special, but if I'm starting that guy in my flex every week as my WR5, I'm ahead of the curve at the position.  

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On 6/7/2018 at 1:46 PM, dogfightgiggle said:

Enough beating around the bush.  Who are your sleepers?

 

John Kelly

 

I think the question of sleepers has a lot to do with league settings (PPR, etc.). While JKelly is talented, I'm not so sure he's a sleeper, more like a handcuff, because he will not see significant action, though he's talented. Sleepers have a lot to do with roster size as well. I like Jordan Wilkins (RB, Colts), but this rookie isn't for 20-player 12-team leagues; for deeper leagues (14+ teams, 28+ rosters), JWilkins has some sleeper appeal, and although there are more men in front him than in John Kelly's situation, Jordan Wilkins might actually be closer to relevance in surpassing Mack, Turbin, Hines, Michael, than Kelly leapfrogging a giant-sized Gurley.

IncomparableUnevenFunnelweaverspider-siz

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1 hour ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I think the question of sleepers has a lot to do with league settings (PPR, etc.). While JKelly is talented, I'm not so sure he's a sleeper, more like a handcuff, because he will not see significant action, though he's talented. Sleepers have a lot to do with roster size as well. I like Jordan Wilkins (RB, Colts), but this rookie isn't for 20-player 12-team leagues; for deeper leagues (14+ teams, 28+ rosters), JWilkins has some sleeper appeal, and although there are more men in front him than in John Kelly's situation, Jordan Wilkins might actually be closer to relevance in surpassing Mack, Turbin, Hines, Michael, than Kelly leapfrogging a giant-sized Gurley.

IncomparableUnevenFunnelweaverspider-siz

 

 

About Kelly, I Iove the way he runs.  That's it.  He's too good to leave on the wire.  We all saw last year what kind of damage can be done with a two back system in New Orleans and I feel a trend coming on.

 

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4 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I think the question of sleepers has a lot to do with league settings (PPR, etc.). While JKelly is talented, I'm not so sure he's a sleeper, more like a handcuff, because he will not see significant action, though he's talented. Sleepers have a lot to do with roster size as well. I like Jordan Wilkins (RB, Colts), but this rookie isn't for 20-player 12-team leagues; for deeper leagues (14+ teams, 28+ rosters), JWilkins has some sleeper appeal, and although there are more men in front him than in John Kelly's situation, Jordan Wilkins might actually be closer to relevance in surpassing Mack, Turbin, Hines, Michael, than Kelly leapfrogging a giant-sized Gurley.

IncomparableUnevenFunnelweaverspider-siz

My 2 cents on Wilkins. He looks awesome on highlights. Really fun kid to watch on his best runs. On all the runs in between.... Eh. He averaged just 1.7 yards after contact. He's not very decisive when there isn't a massive hole. He was also awful in pass pro in college. Not saying he can't earn himself a situational back role in the NFL, but I think he'd have to come a long way to develop into a starting NFL RB. 

 

As for Kelly, I agree with DFG that an elite offense like the Rams can sustain two productive RBs, if they choose to go that way. They also might choose to give 85% of the snaps to Gurley.

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8 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

That's not entirely true.  I play in a 12 team dynasty where we start 2 RBs, 4 WRs, and 2 FLEX every week.  I imagine I'm not alone there either.

 

Sure, the WR43 isn't anything special, but if I'm starting that guy in my flex every week as my WR5, I'm ahead of the curve at the position.  

 

Like I said, from the perspective of starting 50 WRs every week, one could call Hurns a legit sleeper--that league probly starts at least 60, esp. if it uses PPR scoring.  And no, you're not alone in playing those leagues, but you ARE in a pretty small minority.  The vast majority of casual FF players are in leagues that start 30 or so WRs every week, and Hurns will be only barely rosterable for them.

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I don’t know if this necessarily qualifies as sleepers but don’t know where to post it. Guys who I think will substantially outproduce their adp and be in the wr/rb 1-2 fold

 

J.Howard- Was a rb1 many weeks last year, the team added a trio of new wr weapons and trubsky has a year under his belt. I don’t understand why his perceived value has dropped to 3rd rounder. 

 

D.Thomas- Some shored up qb play out of keenum compared to what he was dealing with could rerun him to wr1 relevance.

 

Crowder- rough go last year after being hyped as a big breakout. A.Smith is the king of the dunk and dunk so I expect a big year from this guy.

 

Mixon- another guy who’s getting slept on due to a pedestrian showing last year behind a s---y line. Well the line has been revamped so I expect him to break into that rb1 crowd.

 

C.Meredith- Kinda forgotten man due to being out last year, but showed flashes of potential two years ago when healthy in an offense with not much else.

 

M.Ryan- guy is only one year removed from an MVP season and one of the top point scorers at his position. Yet in mocks I sometimes see him go completely undtafted. 

 

As well some of the aforementioned guys like hurns, m.bryant, c.davis and enwau

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35 minutes ago, Flyers_28 said:

alex collins 

 

where is he being drafted as of now ?

 

Seen Collins go as early as 4, though more often towards 5. A decent bet to outperform his ADP, and although the Ravens have liked Dixon---and expected things from Dixon---there's little evidence to suggest Dixon will supplant Collins.

 

35 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

I don’t know if this necessarily qualifies as sleepers but don’t know where to post it. Guys who I think will substantially outproduce their adp and be in the wr/rb 1-2 fold

 

J.Howard- Was a rb1 many weeks last year, the team added a trio of new wr weapons and trubsky has a year under his belt. I don’t understand why his perceived value has dropped to 3rd rounder. 

 

D.Thomas- Some shored up qb play out of keenum compared to what he was dealing with could rerun him to wr1 relevance.

 

Crowder- rough go last year after being hyped as a big breakout. A.Smith is the king of the dunk and dunk so I expect a big year from this guy.

 

Mixon- another guy who’s getting slept on due to a pedestrian showing last year behind a s---y line. Well the line has been revamped so I expect him to break into that rb1 crowd.

 

C.Meredith- Kinda forgotten man due to being out last year, but showed flashes of potential two years ago when healthy in an offense with not much else.

 

M.Ryan- guy is only one year removed from an MVP season and one of the top point scorers at his position. Yet in mocks I sometimes see him go completely undtafted.

 

No, none of these would technically rank as "sleepers" (maybe Meredith?), but your post does raise a good point regarding, "don’t know where to post it," as there is no current Likely to outperform their current ADP thread. I'd suggest the majority of the guys you mention fit in there, maybe with the exception of Jordan Howard (I've seen him go as low as Round 4, which is great, but as high as Round 2).

 

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On ‎6‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 12:31 AM, Panthers8912 said:

Chris Godwin fan (well, wanted my team to draft him) here. Think the kid can certainly ball but I’m just not seeing the path to targets. Evans and Djax are mostly deep threats, but 2 TEs in the mix too? Idk man lot of competition 

I just think the kid is the real deal, and eventually the cream rises to the top in this league.  I'm not convinced DJax is the player he once was, and I was never a huge fan of his anyway.  And he tends to get dinged up quite a bit.  I have a feeling if he misses time again this year Godwin is going to supplant him and never look back.

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11 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

Seen Collins go as early as 4, though more often towards 5. A decent bet to outperform his ADP, and although the Ravens have liked Dixon---and expected things from Dixon---there's little evidence to suggest Dixon will supplant Collins.

 

I know that we're not interested in injury-dependent sleepers in this thread, but does ball security count the same as injury.  If not, then I definitely nominate Dixon as big time sleeper who is currently going undrafted.  Collins has a life-long history of ball security problems.  I appreciate that he managed to avoid them for a stretch last season, such that the CS now believes he may be reliable, but how quickly do you think that could change?  Collins doesn't have a long leash when it comes to holding on to the ball.  If he were to revisit his ball security issues for any stretch at all, the door would swing wide open for Dixon.  The CS has a history of liking DIxon, and they won't hesitate to go with him.

 

Another deep sleeper is Doug Martin.  Gruden loves him already, and he is still in prime of his career.  Lynch is very popular at all levels in Oakland and, yes, the job is his to lose, but if Lynch starts skipping beats, and Martin shows he's in prime form, look out.  Lynch could find himself in a time share with Martin getting as many, or more, snaps.

 

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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I know that we're not interested in injury-dependent sleepers in this thread, but does ball security count the same as injury.  If not, then I definitely nominate Dixon as big time sleeper who is currently going undrafted.  Collins has a life-long history of ball security problems.  I appreciate that he managed to avoid them for a stretch last season, such that the CS now believes he may be reliable, but how quickly do you think that could change?  Collins doesn't have a long leash when it comes to holding on to the ball.  If he were to revisit his ball security issues for any stretch at all, the door would swing wide open for Dixon.  The CS has a history of liking DIxon, and they won't hesitate to go with him.

 

Another deep sleeper is Doug Martin.  Gruden loves him already, and he is still in prime of his career.  Lynch is very popular at all levels in Oakland and, yes, the job is his to lose, but if Lynch starts skipping beats, and Martin shows he's in prime form, look out.  Lynch could find himself in a time share with Martin getting as many, or more, snaps.

 

 

True, Collins’ fumblage in Seattle was embarrassing, 42 touches and he coughed it up twice. I didn’t have a piece of Collins last season, and when he took over in Baltimore I didn’t expect much, except for fumbles. But he kept producing, kept running hard, and made me regret not picking him up off waivers for when Zeke finally got suspended. At season’s end, Collins had 235 touches and matched his 2 fumbles from the year before in Seattle. Growth. I’m not reaching for Collins, but I’m not betting against him by holding Dixon, and Collins is a good bet to exceed his ADP. Dixon has never really taken off, partly because lack of durability, partly because stupidity (PEDS). I guess he’s free enough, going undrafted pretty much, so it won’t cost anything for the dart throw (except a roster spot). Drafted in one league tonight, and picked up a second QB at the end, and I’d prefer that or even a second D over Dixon. 

 

Regarding Martin, I have no idea what to make of the Raiders backfield. Martin did not look good last season. Lynch is there... until he gets suspended for something stupid. DWashington is there. And Jalen Richard looks like the most explosive of the four. Martin could easily be the lead back, but whether he’s the lead back in an offense unable to run the ball or he’s the lead back in a four-way committee is beyond me. Or, he’s the man, leading the Raiders well... something tells me that last scenario ain’t the one. Maybe in part I’m jaded from listening to a Gruden bumble his way through commentating last year. At least we don’t have to listen to that anymore. And that said, I own Martin in dynasty and I’m not trading; his value is low, and like your post implies, there is at least some shot for him... and he seemed pretty likable demonstrating a solid work ethic last year on Hard Knocks.

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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I know that we're not interested in injury-dependent sleepers in this thread, but does ball security count the same as injury.  If not, then I definitely nominate Dixon as big time sleeper who is currently going undrafted.  Collins has a life-long history of ball security problems.  I appreciate that he managed to avoid them for a stretch last season, such that the CS now believes he may be reliable, but how quickly do you think that could change?  Collins doesn't have a long leash when it comes to holding on to the ball.  If he were to revisit his ball security issues for any stretch at all, the door would swing wide open for Dixon.  The CS has a history of liking DIxon, and they won't hesitate to go with him.

 

Another deep sleeper is Doug Martin.  Gruden loves him already, and he is still in prime of his career.  Lynch is very popular at all levels in Oakland and, yes, the job is his to lose, but if Lynch starts skipping beats, and Martin shows he's in prime form, look out.  Lynch could find himself in a time share with Martin getting as many, or more, snaps.

 

Dixon looks super fat, slow and out of shape in his most recent OTA feature on the Ravens YouTube channel. I really don’t think he’s much of a threat to Collins currently.

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6 hours ago, urbank07 said:

Dixon looks super fat, slow and out of shape in his most recent OTA feature on the Ravens YouTube channel. I really don’t think he’s much of a threat to Collins currently.

 

For those of us who aren't in a position to follow the the team closely, this sort of information helps.  Before his injury last season, I know the CS liked him alot.  Allen is nothing special, and the Ravens haven't added anyone meaningful to the RB group, so I have been assuming that the Dixon in camp is the Dixon of old.0

 

 I'll be  on the look out for any reports that the sentiment has changed.

 

7 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

True, Collins’ fumblage in Seattle was embarrassing,

 

Maybe you did not intend to suggest that Collins' ball security issues began with his arrival in Seattle, but for the record, Collins' had one of the worst fumble rates in college. The Ravens (and all other teams) know his career history.  They won't give him the benefit of the doubt like they would if he didn't have the history.  That's what adds risk to owning Collins.  He has to do better than most in the ball security department to keep his job.  That's just what happens when you get branded as a fumbler, which Collins was when he was drafted.  

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8 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Maybe you did not intend to suggest that Collins' ball security issues began with his arrival in Seattle, but for the record, Collins' had one of the worst fumble rates in college. AGREED, AND 10 TIMES IN TWO YEARS (FUMBLING EVERY 53 RUSH ATTEMPTS) ROTS WITH THE ROTTENEST. MY POINT WAS MORE TO HIS GROWTH, TWICE FUMBLING IN 235 TOUCHES. TRUE, THE COUNTERARGUMENT HERE IS, Well, the Ravens couldn't remove him from the game when he fumbled because there was no backfield depth; now there is Dixon.

 

The Ravens (and all other teams) know his career history.  They won't give him the benefit of the doubt like they would if he didn't have the history.  AGREED, HIS LEASH WILL NOT BE LONG BECAUSE OF COACHES FEARING COLLINS' REGRESSING INTO HIS FUMBLING WAYS.

 

That's what adds risk to owning Collins.  He has to do better than most in the ball security department to keep his job.  That's just what happens when you get branded as a fumbler, which Collins was when he was drafted.  I SEE THE JOB AS COLLINS' UNTIL / UNLESS HE REGRESSES. COLLINS EARNED THE JOB AND RAN WELL. I THINK HE'LL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL.

 

Comments above in BLUE. I suppose in playing the Dixon card, a drafter's gambling is not unlike someone who handcuffs an RB with a rich injury history, or drafts a second-stringer anticipating injury to the first-string RB. The gamble doesn't come at a cost, other than a roster spot, as Dixon is being left out and left behind, so I can see your point; you've convinced me to meditate on the backfield in deeper consciousness. The other side of this coin might consider that Dixon has not been successful as a pro: PEDS + injuries. The coaches like him, or at least they liked him at one point, but right now he's somewhat out of favor, and Collins is in favor, albeit on a short-ish leash. It's June, and it's fantasy, so for all I know the LJax + KDix might be the next Ben-to-Bell... but the  signs aren't pointing towards that combo yet.

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On 6/9/2018 at 9:22 AM, dogfightgiggle said:

My thing with Hurns is the vacated targets, lack of red zone receiving options, and the fact that he produced in '15 with Bortles. 

 

I wouldn't necessarily say the book is written on Dak yet either.

 

How about this?  Hurns had nearly a 70% catch rate last year.  Dez was in the low 50's. 

 

I say Hurns can best Dez's numbers from last season.

 

 

Slow down and think first.

#1 - The o-line is nowhere what it used to be.

#2 - Zeke isn't running every play.

#3 - No check down Witten this year.

#4 - Dez has great hands and only gets difficult throws.  Mostly highly contested red-zone passes.

 

How is Hurns being utilized this year?  Dak loves the check down game.  Either he makes a big leap forward, or this team desperately misses Tony Romo in 2018 and Jason Garrett faces losing his job.  Dallas has four slot receivers and no legitimate outside WR1.  Austin must be the Witten replacement?  I don't know.  Outside Zeke, avoid this offense?

 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

 

Slow down and think first.

#1 - The o-line is nowhere what it used to be.

#2 - Zeke isn't running every play.

#3 - No check down Witten this year.

#4 - Dez has great hands and only gets difficult throws.  Mostly highly contested red-zone passes.

 

How is Hurns being utilized this year?  Dak loves the check down game.  Either he makes a big leap forward, or this team desperately misses Tony Romo in 2018 and Jason Garrett faces losing his job.  Dallas has four slot receivers and no legitimate outside WR1.  Austin must be the Witten replacement?  I don't know.  Outside Zeke, avoid this offense?

 

 

 

The things you posted suggest more opportunities for Hurns to compile in ppr this year.

 

He can ease the loss of both Dez and Witten and perform sort of like a more dependable Mohammed Sanu in fantasy.  Best red zone target, first look in the intermediate passing game, couple deep shots a game, maybe more against smaller DB groups.

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Still not convinced Hurns isn't a reasonable sleeper in a lottery ticket sort of way as long as you are only spending an 11th round or later pick in a 12 team standard/non-ppr. It's a reach but not crazy.

 

Just as a rough baseline: Dak had ~3,200 yards passing last year. Dez accounted for 25% at 800+ yards. Dez had 6 TDs.

 

If a full season of Zeke and other things break right (like I said: sleeper in a lottery ticket way) it is not insane to say Dak could achieve his rookie passing yard numbers of ~3,600.

 

If Hurns shows more chemistry with Dak then Dez, and accounts for 30% of those yards (compared to Dez's 25% last year) that would equate to ~1,000 yards receiving. Give him 6 TDs and you've got 130 points in standard which is the bottom number for startable in standard or, if you prefer, a WR22 finish last year 1 point behind Mike Evans. That's not bad for a 11th or later round pick. Give him 8 TDs and you are at 148 fantasy points which is a low end WR2.

 

I Dak hitting 3,600 passing yards and Hurns accounting for 30% of those is a rock hard ceiling and an unlikely one at that. That said, there are worse lottery tickets.  

 

 

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27 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

Still not convinced Hurns isn't a reasonable sleeper in a lottery ticket sort of way as long as you are only spending an 11th round or later pick in a 12 team standard/non-ppr. It's a reach but not crazy.

 

Just as a rough baseline: Dak had ~3,200 yards passing last year. Dez accounted for 25% at 800+ yards. Dez had 6 TDs.

 

If a full season of Zeke and other things break right (like I said: sleeper in a lottery ticket way) it is not insane to say Dak could achieve his rookie passing yard numbers of ~3,600.

 

If Hurns shows more chemistry with Dak then Dez, and accounts for 30% of those yards (compared to Dez's 25% last year) that would equate to ~1,000 yards receiving. Give him 6 TDs and you've got 130 points in standard which is the bottom number for startable in standard or, if you prefer, a WR22 finish last year 1 point behind Mike Evans. That's not bad for a 11th or later round pick. Give him 8 TDs and you are at 148 fantasy points which is a low end WR2.

 

I Dak hitting 3,600 passing yards and Hurns accounting for 30% of those is a rock hard ceiling and an unlikely one at that. That said, there are worse lottery tickets.  

 

 

I don't know why Dak can't out perform his rookie numbers.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dak-prescott-should-start-ignoring-dez-bryant/amp/

 

"Bryant is among the lowest-rated receivers in key efficiency metrics like catch rate (73rd out of 78 qualifying wide receivers with at least two catches per team game), receiving yards per target (75th), and receiving yards as a percentage of air yards (72nd). "

 

"On all non-Bryant passes, Prescott’s rating of 95.3 is well above the NFL average."

 

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6 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

I don't know why Dak can't out perform his rookie numbers.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dak-prescott-should-start-ignoring-dez-bryant/amp/

 

"Bryant is among the lowest-rated receivers in key efficiency metrics like catch rate (73rd out of 78 qualifying wide receivers with at least two catches per team game), receiving yards per target (75th), and receiving yards as a percentage of air yards (72nd). "

 

"On all non-Bryant passes, Prescott’s rating of 95.3 is well above the NFL average."

 

 

 

I think it could happen, which is why I think Hurns is a decent sleeper/late round pick in fantasy.

 

I am still concerned about the lack of other receiving options and the coaching staff honestly. I've had Zeke the past two years and watched more Cowboy games than any Giant fan should but Dak, Zeke and most of the players all looked very good to me and yet the play calling just seemed to keep them stuck in the mud. Not sure how Hurns is going to overcome that if he is the only obvious receiving option. If I were a DC, I'd stop Zeke and concentrate on Hurns because who else do I have to worry about?

 

Also, even if Dak hits his rookie passing yardage, Hurns would still need to catch 30% of those to reach 1,000 receiving yards. That is a lot. If he caught the 25% Dez had last year, Dak would need to throw for (obviously) 4,000 yards. That is just to get 1,000. He needs 6 TDs on top of that to hit 130 points in standard which is the bare bottom of startable.

 

It could happen, I'll be drafting Hurns late. I just don' t see it as, say, 8th round likely to happen as 11th round likely.  

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