RMJ_12

2018 Biggest Busts

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13 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Maybe DT won't be a pure "bust" taken in the fifth, but he very well could be kind of "meh."  850 -70-5 type of season.  If that's not a bust, fair enough.  Won't be happening on my roster, that's for sure.

 

As for Shady, yeah.  2017 is going to go into the books as his last impact season.  Better to get off the train one or two stops early as opposed to too late.

 

Lol that line is literally higher than Stefon Diggs’ career averages. What a bum

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12 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Maybe DT won't be a pure "bust" taken in the fifth, but he very well could be kind of "meh."  850 -70-5 type of season.  If that's not a bust, fair enough.  Won't be happening on my roster, that's for sure.

 

As for Shady, yeah.  2017 is going to go into the books as his last impact season.  Better to get off the train one or two stops early as opposed to too late.

 

It seems to me that you're basically figuring him for a similar season to last year.  If he does that then he will be very close to returning on the investment.  He's currently going as the WR22 in standard scoring and last year he finished as the WR23.  I don't foresee him doing worse and expect him to do better.

 

In PPR he finished as the WR16 last year and is currently being drafted as the WR18.  Once again he's going for a price based on last year's numbers which should be easy for him to reproduce or improve on.

 

If you honestly think he's only good for 70/850/5 then you would be right to avoid him at his current price.  I can't foresee him having his worst season since his second year in the league, 7 years ago.

 

If you are concerned about him being 30 and think he's going to drop off because of it, I suggest you read this article.

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Here is an excerpt from the article I linked above. 

 

Fantasy Output of WRs as They Age (1970-2011)

Receivers maintain most of their value until they hit 35 and clearly don’t suffer from the same sharp decline as running backs. While wideouts don’t quite have the consistency and longevity of quarterbacks, the wise dynasty owner will pair quarterbacks with receivers instead of running backs when building the foundation of their team.

Because quarterbacks really begin their long plateau at 25, wideouts reach their maximum productivity later than any other position by peaking at ages 26 and 27. It’s important to exercise patience with this late-blooming position when deciding whom to keep from year to year. Conversely, be on the lookout for other owners bailing on receivers too soon. You may be rewarded by finding players with mediocre stats who have the skills worthy of a second chance.

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2 hours ago, lolcopter said:

 

Lol that line is literally higher than Stefon Diggs’ career averages. What a bum

I know, right?  Bilgewater and Keenum's crummy QB play has really held Diggs back.  Thank the Purple People Eater that Cousins is now the Vikings QB!

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28 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I know, right?  Bilgewater and Keenum's crummy QB play has really held Diggs back.  Thank the Purple People Eater that Cousins is now the Vikings QB!

 

Again, Cousins has NEVER supported a top 10 WR. Have fun buying DT production at an ADP premium tho

 

also love how that bad QB logic applies to diggs but not DT. Quite the consistent rationale ya got there bud

 

Diggs has career year under Keenum = garbage QB

 

DT with improved QB play = BUSTO

Edited by lolcopter
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38 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I know, right?  Bilgewater and Keenum's crummy QB play has really held Diggs back.  Thank the Purple People Eater that Cousins is now the Vikings QB!

 

Reminder: logic like this is what led to Terrell Pryor being drafted in the 3rd round last season. Plan accordingly

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1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

 

Again, Cousins has NEVER supported a top 10 WR. Have fun buying DT production at an ADP premium tho

 

also love how that bad QB logic applies to diggs but not DT. Quite the consistent rationale ya got there bud

 

Diggs has career year under Keenum = garbage QB

 

DT with improved QB play = BUSTO

I find it astonishing that you think the positions are inconsistent.  We have been talking about this since 2017.

 

Me:  Diggs sure is good, Keenum sure is bad.  Diggs will be so much better with a real QB.

 

Me:  Thomas sure is in decline.  I wouldn't want him for my fantasy team.  Keenum sure is bad, so Keenum won't be much help.

 

You:  Gotcha!  You are being inconsistent.

 

Me:  Eh?

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1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

 

Again, Cousins has NEVER supported a top 10 WR.

 

Because Cousins has had so many great WR to throw to?  Desean, Garcon, Crowder, a hobbled Pryor, Ryan Grant, who else?  Doctson? These are not top 10 caliber players.  Top 30, maybe.

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9 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

 

Because Cousins has had so many great WR to throw to?  Desean, Garcon, Crowder, a hobbled Pryor, Ryan Grant, who else?  Doctson? These are not top 10 caliber players.  Top 30, maybe.

 

neither is Diggs

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

Receivers maintain most of their value until they hit 35 and clearly don’t suffer from the same sharp decline as running backs.

 

I remember reading that article when it came out, and I agree with the logic (as it’s presented in facts), but of course there’s always someone who’ll break the odds, and finding that outlier can greatly help a fantasy team (e.g. Gore). Is Brandon Marshall in that category of aging WRs who can shut down defenses despite the advanced years? Two years ago, definitely, but now after watching him on the field doing whatever it is he’s doing out there, I doubt it. Decker? Another aging and listless WR. In drafting an elderly WR, we’re essentially looking for a Steve Smith Sr., who at 37 seemed uncoverable and voracious, despite playing with broken bones in his back. Like Marshall and Decker now, Smith Sr. was essentially free at age 37, going undrafted in 12-team, the way Marshall and Decker (and Gore) are now. I know the cliff comes sooner for RBs, but of those three oldies, considering what we’ve seen in the past two seasons, my money is on Gore giving the Dolphins his 100%. Some guys are just made from tougher stuff.

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Agreed, each WR approaching or passing 30 needs to be evaluated on his own merits.  NFL teams make it much easier on the fantasy community by cutting such players, as we have seen this offseason with Maclin, Decker, Dez, and, likely again soon, Brandon Marshall.  Fake footballers are slow to let go, however, of their faves from three seasons ago.  So I think we will still see significant draft capital wasted this year on the likes of Jordy, Demaryius, and Julio Jones.

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7 hours ago, lolcopter said:

 

Lol that line is literally higher than Stefon Diggs’ career averages. What a bum

Umm.. maybe because he's never actually 16 games in a season.  His per game averages extrapolate to much higher than that.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Umm.. maybe because he's never actually 16 games in a season.  His per game averages extrapolate to much higher than that.

 

neither has Case Keenum, checkmate

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8 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

neither has Case Keenum, checkmate

Aren't you the one who likes Case Keenum? I think you flipped sides there...

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3 hours ago, lolcopter said:

 

Reminder: logic like this is what led to Terrell Pryor being drafted in the 3rd round last season. Plan accordingly

So you’re saying I got a steal when I drafted him in the fourth? 

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1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

*cough*LarryFitzgerald*cough*

Fitz is a special case.  So was Steve Smith, Sr.  Most NFL WRs are not like those two guys.  

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17 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Agreed, each WR approaching or passing 30 needs to be evaluated on his own merits.  NFL teams make it much easier on the fantasy community by cutting such players, as we have seen this offseason with Maclin, Decker, Dez, and, likely again soon, Brandon Marshall.  Fake footballers are slow to let go, however, of their faves from three seasons ago.  So I think we will still see significant draft capital wasted this year on the likes of Jordy, Demaryius, and Julio Jones.

 

Julio doesn't belong on that list. Def agree with everyone else mentioned but hes still a stud

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On 6/13/2018 at 6:53 AM, lolcopter said:

 

Cousins has never supported a top 10 fantasy WR in his entire career

 

the player on that team that stands to benefit the most is Kyle Rudolph 

 

see also: projections for Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder going into last season. How did that work out?

Pryor and Crowder are not as good as Diggs or Thielen so that's kind of a moot point. On top of that Pryor was injured for most of 2017 so we didn't really get a good idea of what he could have done with Cousins.

 

Cousins does spread the ball around more than Keenum but he's still going to throw for more yards than Keenum did in 2017. I see no reason why Thielen and Diggs cannot improve upon their numbers and other receivers do the same (such as Rudolph).

 

I also don't get the argument that just because something hasn't happened yet means it will never happen.

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26 minutes ago, munde53 said:

I also don't get the argument that just because something hasn't happened yet means it will never happen.

 

In statistics, it's called "baselining" and "standard deviation."

 

I don't think the argument is that an outlier season CAN'T happen; just that it's unlikely to happen.

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On 6/21/2018 at 1:28 PM, lolcopter said:

 

 

  Hide contents

 

neither is Diggs

 

 

Diggs has shown that he is a good WR including last year when there was numerous times he was running wide open but Keenum was locked into Thielen. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Diggs has shown that he is a good WR including last year when there was numerous times he was running wide open but Keenum was locked into Thielen. 

 

Don’t act all surprised when Cousins does the same

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29 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Diggs has shown that he is a good WR including last year when there was numerous times he was running wide open but Keenum was locked into Thielen. 

Because he liked throwing to the better receiver?

 

d29c741aa18f2241fbaa5cb9011e37ce.jpg

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40 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

Because he liked throwing to the better receiver?

 

d29c741aa18f2241fbaa5cb9011e37ce.jpg

He was potentially the safest QB in the NFL last season. Thielen was a safe option due to the routes he ran. 

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17 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Thielen was a safe option due to the routes he ran. 

 

+ his ability to gain separation

+ his reliable hands

 

source.gif

 

Man gets so little credit considering his performances.

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