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Aaron Jones 2018 Outlook

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HE FACED THE BEST RUN DEFENSES IN THE LEAGUE THE FIRST 2 GAMES.....should have a better showing this week...you guys act like the bears and vikings arent legit or something...watch the games lol

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6 minutes ago, Power-O said:

HE FACED THE BEST RUN DEFENSES IN THE LEAGUE THE FIRST 2 GAMES.....should have a better showing this week...you guys act like the bears and vikings arent legit or something...watch the games lol

yeah it's funny people killing williams act like he didn't face two of the best run defenses in the league his first two weeks.

 

I remember him being a volume base PPR beast for me in the latter half of last season.  He can do that again.

Edited by JetsAwesome
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5 minutes ago, Power-O said:

HE FACED THE BEST RUN DEFENSES IN THE LEAGUE THE FIRST 2 GAMES.....should have a better showing this week...you guys act like the bears and vikings arent legit or something...watch the games lol

It's not just the first two weeks which is what Williams owners seem to not understand. It's weeks 10-17 of last year as well. Williams has never looked like an starting NFL caliber running back. 

 

The "watch the games" line is interesting to me because I feel like Williams believers have never actually watched him run.

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13 minutes ago, munde53 said:

It's not just the first two weeks which is what Williams owners seem to not understand. It's weeks 10-17 of last year as well. Williams has never looked like an starting NFL caliber running back. 

 

The "watch the games" line is interesting to me because I feel like Williams believers have never actually watched him run.

 

I mean they didnt really have Aarom Rodgers either....

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2 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

I mean they didnt really have Aarom Rodgers either....

That didn't stop Jones from impressing in the running game. In week 15 of last year they did have Aaron Rodgers and Williams posted a 10/30 rushing line which is in line with what he has done so far this year. 

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all i know is with a lesser qb - jamaal williams had these scoring lines in ESPN from weeks 10-17

 

  8.4  13.5   29.5   20.3  30.8  3   5.8   14.3

 

Looks like a fine RB2 level of production in a bad offense to me.  The 3, 8.4  and 5.8 predictably were against the Panthers, the Bears and Vikings (three top run defenses from last year).  Just saying

Edited by JetsAwesome
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38 minutes ago, Power-O said:

HE FACED THE BEST RUN DEFENSES IN THE LEAGUE THE FIRST 2 GAMES.....should have a better showing this week...you guys act like the bears and vikings arent legit or something...watch the games lol

 

If you watched the games you would be able to see Williams' lack of skill.  Chris Harris' video highlights it quite well

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3 minutes ago, Novaray said:

 

If you watched the games you would be able to see Williams' lack of skill.  Chris Harris' video highlights it quite well

 

video please? im sure i can poke holes in the argument... he isnt flashy at all...but he keeps those legs churning after contact...does he have breakway speed no...but he gets the job done

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3 minutes ago, Power-O said:

 

video please? im sure i can poke holes in the argument... he isnt flashy at all...but he keeps those legs churning after contact...does he have breakway speed no...but he gets the job done

A 3.4YPC average is not "getting the job done" as you say. 

 

That currently ranks 35th in the NFL. 

 

I would buy into the argument that he has faced two difficult defensive teams; however, he is still right in line with his career average. 

 

We have two games in 2018 against good defenses where he averaged 3.4YPC. And we have the 2017 season of 153 rushes where he averaged 3.6YPC. Only once (with any volume) did he average over 4YPC in a game. 

 

Maybe he just is not a very good running back. And maybe Aaron Jones isn't either. We will see. 

Edited by Grayson2401

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3 minutes ago, Power-O said:

 

video please? im sure i can poke holes in the argument... he isnt flashy at all...but he keeps those legs churning after contact...does he have breakway speed no...but he gets the job done

So you're saying all he gets is what's blocked for him.

 

He doesn't have the power to break tackles, he doesn't have the agility to make people miss, he doesn't have any quick twitch to force defenders into bad tackle angles to make people miss, and he doesn't have the acceleration to burst through holes or frankly to get to cutback lanes if the designed hole isn't open. Williams isn't "flashy" because he simply doesn't flash much talent.

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1 minute ago, munde53 said:

So you're saying all he gets is what's blocked for him.

 

He doesn't have the power to break tackles, he doesn't have the agility to make people miss, he doesn't have any quick twitch to force defenders into bad tackle angles to make people miss, and he doesn't have the acceleration to burst through holes or frankly to get to cutback lanes if the designed hole isn't open. Williams isn't "flashy" because he simply doesn't flash much talent.

 

hes not a scat back...hes a lynch, BJE back (not at the level yet but thats the mold)...but like most rbs you get what your line gives ya and sometimes you take the cutback if its there...that is all im saying

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Just now, Power-O said:

 

hes not a scat back...hes a lynch, BJE back (not at the level yet but thats the mold)...but like most rbs you get what your line gives ya and sometimes you take the cutback if its there...that is all im saying

He is far, far, far from being in the mold of Lynch other than the fact they are both running backs and he will never be close to his level. Law Firm was never a good running back either other than having a couple years of double digit TDs. 

 

I've made the comparison numerous times (I didn't come up with it but it's fitting) of Williams to Robert Turbin. Which now that I watch Williams play a little more I don't even think that is a fair comparison because I think Turbin has better power and is much better at making people miss. 

 

So if you're fine with Robert Turbin lite as your starting running back then Williams is your guy.

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2 minutes ago, munde53 said:

He is far, far, far from being in the mold of Lynch other than the fact they are both running backs and he will never be close to his level. Law Firm was never a good running back either other than having a couple years of double digit TDs. 

 

I've made the comparison numerous times (I didn't come up with it but it's fitting) of Williams to Robert Turbin. Which now that I watch Williams play a little more I don't even think that is a fair comparison because I think Turbin has better power and is much better at making people miss. 

 

So if you're fine with Robert Turbin lite as your starting running back then Williams is your guy.

 

i dont got much of a choice lol 

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45 minutes ago, Power-O said:

 

video please? im sure i can poke holes in the argument... he isnt flashy at all...but he keeps those legs churning after contact...does he have breakway speed no...but he gets the job done

 

3.4 ypc is NOT getting the job done.

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way too many pages about a Packers RB - GB doesn't run the ball and doesn't want to run the ball.  Yes - Rodgers is hurt but this team is coached by Mike McCarthy, when has he ever used conventional wisdom in his game plans.  Packers RBs have not been useful for fantasy the last several years mostly bc of how unpredictable their usage has been.  

 

If anyone thinks Aaron Jones is gonna roll into cheesehead town and carve out a RB2 role this year I have some beans Id also like to sell you.  

 

He's at best a matchup play flex/ bye week dart throw that COULD possibly become slightly more useful should injuries ravage the passing game or the other RBs. 

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3 minutes ago, kp96 said:

 

3.4 ypc is NOT getting the job done.

 

Theoretically, if you average 3.4 yards every carry, you'd get a first down every time!...

 

200.gif

 

 

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Everyone talking ypc like it's some deciding factor. If that were the case, Melvin Gordon would've been out of a job years ago. 

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13 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

Everyone talking ypc like it's some deciding factor. If that were the case, Melvin Gordon would've been out of a job years ago. 

Melvin Gordon is not a great real life running back either, though. He scores a bunch of TDs and becomes valuable in fantasy. 

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1 minute ago, Grayson2401 said:

Melvin Gordon is not a great real life running back either, though. He scores a bunch of TDs and becomes valuable in fantasy. 

yup gets 75 -80 percent of work.  Medicore yards per carry but scores loads of TDs.

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everyone keeps pointing to Jones as this crazy good runner and constantly using Williams current 3.x ypc as a rallying cry.  Jones had 4 games last year with over 10 carries.

 

NO- 7.7

MIN-3.2

DAL-6.6

CHI-3.8

 

Williams year looked like this when getting 10 or more carries

 

CHI-3.4

BAL-3.2

PIT-3.1

TB-5.4

CLE-3.3

CAR-3.0

MIN-3.9

DET-3.7

 

from those performance there they both did great against bad defenses and both did about the same against better defenses.  i don't see the huge gap here in performance that is being stated in this thread.  against CHI and MIN which are the only 2 teams that the both faced where they both had a chance at the lead role the ypc is numbers is almost identical between the 2 of them

 

i would agree that Jones is probably the better pure runner compared to Williams but it doesn't look like he is head and shoulders above to the point a potential deficiency in his game can be overlooked for the uptick in rushing ability.

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19 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

Everyone talking ypc like it's some deciding factor. If that were the case, Melvin Gordon would've been out of a job years ago. 

But you are correct that YPC is not always a deciding factor between a good back and a bad back, and to be honest, it does not matter for fantasy purposes. 

 

But if Jones can continue to outpace him by a yard or two, show he has improved in pass protection, and be a viable option in the passing game, there is no reason he will not see a majority of the work. 

 

This is not to say Jones will excel when (if) given the opportunity. I, like many others here, just think he is the only back in Green Bay that has the skills to warrant seeing the majority of work and actually has a viable route to being a RB2ish. 

 

With Williams, I think he is at best someone that will always be part of a committee with none of them having fantasy relevance. 

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Main problem here is they still use Ty Mont quite a bit as the pass catching RB.  I don't think Aaron is known for his pass catching so at best you have a 2 down RB that will split carries with 2 other backs depending on game flow plus Rodgers usually hogs the Red Zone TDs. 

 

Not a lot of upside here besides the actual player himself out performing everyone's wildest expectations.  Even THEN Mike McCarthy still has to use him like a normal coach should use a talented RB which many NFL fans have seen over the years McCarthy simply doesn't use his RBs in any consistent way.  Eddy Lacy somewhat had the dream fantasy RB role playing with ARod all 3 downs but it has not materialized again since.  

 

I went through a stretch where I owned Rodgers for 5 years out of 6 from 2010-2016, I have watched a metric ton of Packers games.  The RB usage is always a mystery even when it feels like one is breaking out, McCarthy seemingly ruins it for the fantasy world.  

Edited by Zak0221

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5 minutes ago, Panthor said:

everyone keeps pointing to Jones as this crazy good runner and constantly using Williams current 3.x ypc as a rallying cry.  Jones had 4 games last year with over 10 carries.

 

NO- 7.7

MIN-3.2

DAL-6.6

CHI-3.8

 

Williams year looked like this when getting 10 or more carries

 

CHI-3.4

BAL-3.2

PIT-3.1

TB-5.4

CLE-3.3

CAR-3.0

MIN-3.9

DET-3.7

 

from those performance there they both did great against bad defenses and both did about the same against better defenses.  i don't see the huge gap here in performance that is being stated in this thread.  against CHI and MIN which are the only 2 teams that the both faced where they both had a chance at the lead role the ypc is numbers is almost identical between the 2 of them

 

i would agree that Jones is probably the better pure runner compared to Williams but it doesn't look like he is head and shoulders above to the point a potential deficiency in his game can be overlooked for the uptick in rushing ability.

You do not see the two games of 7.7 and 6.6 being significantly better than anything Williams did last season?

 

Also worth noting that his highest YPC games came with the most volume (17 carries and 19 carries, respectively).  

Edited by Grayson2401

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YPC doesn't matter.  Here's the difference:

 

  • Jamaal is not a threat to take it to the house.  So the defense cheats a bit because they're not worried about Jamaal blowing by them.  This adversely affects every offensive play call.  Rushers don't bite on the play-action because, who cares what Jamaal is going to do.  They'll catch up.

 

  • Aaron has shown that he can take it to the house.  So the defense has to game plan for him because if they don't, they might look silly.  Now defenders bite on the play-action, giving Arod 1-2 more seconds.  This positively affects every offensive play call.

 

Similar to a Tyreek Hill in the offense (note that I am not saying that Jones has Tyreek speed).  When a DB lines up on Tyreek, he's playing 5-10 yards off.  If a DB lines up on Crabtree, he's jamming him in the face.  It's the threat that opens things up.

 

Now of course, Aaron is the only running back in the NFL that doesn't know how to pass block.  So everything I just said is moot.

Edited by TTo34

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