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Aaron Jones 2018 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

You do not see the two games of 7.7 and 6.6 being significantly better than anything Williams did last season?

 

Also worth noting that his highest YPC games came with the most volume (17 carries and 19 carries, respectively).  

 

 

Williams had a 5.4ypc. it is tough to compare since those are 3 different teams.  it is one thing to say that Jones did 7.7 and Williams did 3.0 against the same team, but that isn't what we are talking about.  we are talking about different teams and different weeks. so the number looks good, it is certainly better on the surface but i don't see how you put significant weight because of the differences.  the closest comparison are the MIN and CHI games, both against the same teams and unless i'm mistaken both without Rodgers in the line up.  and neither guy did much in the preseason either.  i see these guys as a lot closer than what some have said they are.  i'm buying into the GB offense, either guy can emerge as the go to RB this season.

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Just now, Panthor said:

 

 

Williams had a 5.4ypc. it is tough to compare since those are 3 different teams.  it is one thing to say that Jones did 7.7 and Williams did 3.0 against the same team, but that isn't what we are talking about.  we are talking about different teams and different weeks. so the number looks good, it is certainly better on the surface but i don't see how you put significant weight because of the differences.  the closest comparison are the MIN and CHI games, both against the same teams and unless i'm mistaken both without Rodgers in the line up.  and neither guy did much in the preseason either.  i see these guys as a lot closer than what some have said they are.  i'm buying into the GB offense, either guy can emerge as the go to RB this season.

It was not my intention to emphasize and weight individual games because anything can happen any given week.  

 

But you can just compare their numbers as a whole and see one was clearly a better runner (on the surface). If Jones improves as both a blocker and catcher, why would he not get most of the work? 

 

For the record, I am not sure either back is that great. I just think Jones is (slightly) better and the only back that can have stand alone value this season. 

 

Jones was a late round pick or waiver add. You are happy if he brings RB3 numbers and ecstatic if you get RB2 or better somehow. I do not think anyone is praising Jones and his talent as much as they are simply saying there is not much standing in his way to fantasy relevance.  

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50 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

way too many pages about a Packers RB - GB doesn't run the ball and doesn't want to run the ball.  Yes - Rodgers is hurt but this team is coached by Mike McCarthy, when has he ever used conventional wisdom in his game plans.  Packers RBs have not been useful for fantasy the last several years mostly bc of how unpredictable their usage has been.  

 

If anyone thinks Aaron Jones is gonna roll into cheesehead town and carve out a RB2 role this year I have some beans Id also like to sell you.  

 

He's at best a matchup play flex/ bye week dart throw that COULD possibly become slightly more useful should injuries ravage the passing game or the other RBs. 

 

Monte was plenty useful last year and plenty predictable before getting hurt, he had like a 94% snap count, 3 TDs in the first 2 games, and roughly 100 total yards in each game.  and he was on his way to ripping CHI a new one in week 4 to the tune of a 28 yards on 5 carries before getting hurt. which is almost 2 whole yards more than what Jones managed against that same defense. 

 

the usage has been predictable, the problem is not a single one of the 3 stayed healthy all year.  and last time i checked,  injury isn't used against a player a team when trying to determine how they use or don't use players because it is something that is completely out of everyone's control

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5 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

Monte was plenty useful last year and plenty predictable before getting hurt, he had like a 94% snap count, 3 TDs in the first 2 games, and roughly 100 total yards in each game.  and he was on his way to ripping CHI a new one in week 4 to the tune of a 28 yards on 5 carries before getting hurt. which is almost 2 whole yards more than what Jones managed against that same defense. 

 

the usage has been predictable, the problem is not a single one of the 3 stayed healthy all year.  and last time i checked,  injury isn't used against a player a team when trying to determine how they use or don't use players because it is something that is completely out of everyone's control

 

Disagree.  He was only predictable bc he was also a pass catcher who could play from the RB position.  That's always been what GB would prefer to have but Monty had injury issues so they decided they couldnt use him as a conventional 3 down back.

 

Heading into last season tho, fully agree that he was penciled in to be a consistent RB for GB but to me he is the exception to the GB RB position norm.  We are talking several seasons with no replacement to Eddy Lacy that truely was the bellcow for the Packers and Ty Monty kinda was going to be that guy but it didnt come close to materializing.  That's the crux of my point, this position is a black hole for fantasy currently. 

 

( I drafted him highly and had him the previous year when he had dual elligbility - I follow Packers players ALOT as i mentioned I owned Rodgers for 5 years.  Picked up Davante and Cobb off waivers before people began drafting them as I saw their roles grow, and even this year I already have Allison who should be big time starter next year ) 

Edited by Zak0221

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Just now, Grayson2401 said:

It was not my intention to emphasize and weight individual games because anything can happen any given week.  

 

But you can just compare their numbers as a whole and see one was clearly a better runner (on the surface). If Jones improves as both a blocker and catcher, why would he not get most of the work? 

 

For the record, I am not sure either back is that great. I just think Jones is (slightly) better and the only back that can have stand alone value this season. 

 

Jones was a late round pick or waiver add. You are happy if he brings RB3 numbers and ecstatic if you get RB2 or better somehow. I do not think anyone is praising Jones and his talent as much as they are simply saying there is not much standing in his way to fantasy relevance.  

that is my entire point, i wanted to bring it up because i see it too much in this thread over and over about this 5.5 ypc that Jones had, and it is clearly an inflated number, it is a given that Jones is a "better" runner than Williams the scouting reports acknowledge that.  but "better" is relative.  and in those same scouting reports it is undisputed that Williams is "superior" in pass protection compared to Jones and even Monte.  and my thought is that 5.5 ypc number being thrown around gives a false impression of just how much "better" Jones is compared to Williams because in games against the same team with basically the same game plan due to a lack of Rodgers they were basically the same RB according to those numbers.

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1 minute ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Disagree.  He was only predictable bc he was also a pass catcher who could play from the RB position.  That's always been what GB would prefer to have but Monty had injury issues so they decided they couldnt use him as a conventional 3 down back.

 

Heading into the season tho, fully agree that he was penciled in to be a consistent RB for GB.   ( I drafted him highly and had him the previous year when he had dual elligbility - I follow Packers players ALOT as i mentioned I owned Rodgers for 5 years.  Picked up Davante and Cobb off waivers before people began drafting them as I saw their roles grow, and even this year I already have Allison who should be big time starter next year ) 

 

isn't that the definition of being predictable? you can point to an aspect of their game, the scheme, the game plan and count on it happening?  so how can you say it wasn't predictable?  you even acknowledge that is what they want a single 3 down back, so how much more predictable can they get.  you're making my argument for me.

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8 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

isn't that the definition of being predictable? you can point to an aspect of their game, the scheme, the game plan and count on it happening?  so how can you say it wasn't predictable?  you even acknowledge that is what they want a single 3 down back, so how much more predictable can they get.  you're making my argument for me.

 

Im not making your argument for you, I am just pointing out that Ty Mont has been literally the only exception to the norm that has been the Packers backfield after the Lacy era ended.  That to me is more of an anomaly than anything that can be used to prove a point.  I am not sure what your point is even exactly tbh.  My point was simple, this backfield is unpredictable in how they use it in terms of who actually gets carries and has been for quite sometime ( except when Ty Mont was coming in last season as the bellcow starter which you pointed out).  One exception is just that and to me the only reason Ty Mont was going to have the old Eddy Lacy role was because he could run AND catch passes effectively.  

 

They won't give him the full workload again after the past two seasons have been riddled with injuries for him, so there is again no RBs on the roster that are really worth much outside of dart throws that could become something if injuries force them to pick up additional work that is currently not planned for them.  Aaron Jones might carve out a RB3/flex role in fantasy circles if he can lock down 1st and 2nd down with some goaline sprinkled in but it will be an uphill climb that he has put on tape.  The Packers don't play you if you don't produce. 

Edited by Zak0221

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1 hour ago, Zak0221 said:

way too many pages about a Packers RB - GB doesn't run the ball and doesn't want to run the ball. 

 

Do you want me to quote you Green Bay's rush attempts over the last 5 years and how they compare to the rest of the NFL? Because the numbers don't agree with your statement.

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2 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

Do you want me to quote you Green Bay's rush attempts over the last 5 years and how they compare to the rest of the NFL? Because the numbers don't agree with your statement.

 

And I am sure last year's rushing attempts when Rodgers was injured for over half the season doesn't skew these numbers, right?

 

I have probably watched more Packer games than some actual Packer fans, Mike McCarthy always says he wants to run the ball, and usually will run it often on 1st AND 2nd down with middling results but he will abandon it quickly and its pass first around goal line.

Edited by Zak0221

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2 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Im not making your argument for you, I am just pointing out that Ty Mont has been literally the only exception to the norm that has been the Packers backfield after the Lacy era ended.  That to me is more of an anomaly than anything that can be used to prove a point.  I am not sure what your point is even exactly tbh.  My point was simple, this backfield is unpredictable in how they use it in terms of who actually gets carries and has been for quite sometime ( except when Ty Mont was coming in last season as the bellcow starter which you pointed out).  One exception is just that. 

 

since the Lacy era ended? you do realize that is the same year that Monte was turned into a RB right?  after Lacy went down mid season Starks was next man up.  he had a couple of decent games as the lead runner and Monte was converted to RB, after the year Monte became a full time RB, and he was teh bell cow for 4 weeks till he got hurt.  still not seeing anything unpredictable here.  the predictability is there, but there were weeks they weren't viable in fantasy, that's a completely argument

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What are the chances all 3 are even active on game days ? I can’t remember if they ever were last year, they all seemed to be hurt at one point or another

Edited by BRIGUY11

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3 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

And I am sure last year's rushing attempts when Rodgers was injured for over half the season doesn't skew these numbers, right?

 

I have probably watched more Packer games than some actual Packer fans, Mike McCarthy always says he wants to run the ball, and usually will run it often on 1st AND 2nd down with middling results but he will abandon it quickly and its pass first around goal line.

 

Why would it skew the numbers if we aren't looking at averages? The Packers are pretty much always in the top half of the league in rush attempts regardless of who is playing QB. Again, do you need them to be posted for you or are you good with your opinion backed by anecdotal evidence? 

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Last year

Jamaal Williams had 6 games in double digit fantasy points

Aaron Jones had 3 games

Ty Montgomery had 3 games 

 

and none one had it on the same week 

 

I for one have no clue 

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27 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

Why would it skew the numbers if we aren't looking at averages? The Packers are pretty much always in the top half of the league in rush attempts regardless of who is playing QB. Again, do you need them to be posted for you or are you good with your opinion backed by anecdotal evidence? 

I don’t get it either. Anyone who can use google can find out that the Packers were in the top half in rushing attempts until about 2015 (when Lacy started falling off).

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-attempts-per-game

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37 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

since the Lacy era ended? you do realize that is the same year that Monte was turned into a RB right? 

 

Id argue the Lacy era ended when he was given less than 200 carries ( 187 in fact in 15 games )  in 2015 after getting 280 and 250 carries his first two years on the Packers.  Those first two years, fantasy owners could comfortably own THE Packers RB for fantasy ( remember we only mostly care about fantasy production / comfort level starting him).

The three seasons since then ( including this brand new season thus far that we are analyzing ) the Packers backfield has been a mess trying to decide who a fantasy owner can actually comfortably start in their line up.  Ty Mont briefly made fantasy owners feel secure going into last year, but it didnt last long and we are back to hard to trust RBBC of GB. 

Edited by Zak0221

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6 minutes ago, kylebward said:

I don’t get it either. Anyone who can use google can find out that the Packers were in the top half in rushing attempts until about 2015 (when Lacy started falling off).

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-attempts-per-game

 

Ding ding ding - this was my point ! Eddy Lacy was the last time the Packers truely had a RB identity that fantasy owners could trust and the rushing attempts were there for him.  Ty Mont made us feel we could trust him but he has proven to be too fragile for the Packers to give him the workload fantasy owners need. 

 

Will Aaron Jones carve out an Eddy Lacy type role this season if he runs the ball very well?  Maybe but he doesn't catch passes, 9 catches last year in 12 games.  

Edited by Zak0221

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19 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Maybe but he doesn't catch passes, 9 catches last year in 12 games.  

"Doesn't catch passes" implies that he his cut from the Alfred Morris cloth in terms of pass catching ability which isn't accurate. Jones's low pass catching totals was product of opportunity not skill. Jones was a well regarded pass catcher coming out of college and he had 8 of those catches during the 5 games he started. During those weeks with Jones as the starter the Packers did not throw to the running back very often as they did later in the year. In fact during the 5 games Jones started the Packers running backs only caught 16 total balls so Jones caught 50% of all the catches made by running backs during that span. Jones also had a lower drop rate (5.6%) compared to both Williams (11.8%) as well as Montgomery (6.5%).

 

The only question in Jones's game in my opinion at this point is his pass protection which by all off season accounts he has been improving upon. 

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49 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Id argue the Lacy era ended when he was given less than 200 carries ( 187 in fact in 15 games )  in 2015 after getting 280 and 250 carries his first two years on the Packers.  Those first two years, fantasy owners could comfortably own THE Packers RB for fantasy ( remember we only mostly care about fantasy production / comfort level starting him).

The three seasons since then ( including this brand new season thus far that we are analyzing ) the Packers backfield has been a mess trying to decide who a fantasy owner can actually comfortably start in their line up.  Ty Mont briefly made fantasy owners feel secure going into last year, but it didnt last long and we are back to hard to trust RBBC of GB. 

 

 

you're not making an argument about predictability though.  you're confusing predictability with effectiveness.  GB is predictable in their use of the  running back they were not an RBBC last year.  they just have had an effective elite level running game that lasted a whole season in a couple of years.  there is a big difference, it doesn't mean that as a fantasy owner you couldn't confidently plug in a starting GB running back with the expectation of volume, it is a different question whether they deliver on that volume. and we all know volume and opportunity are kings.   if you want to talk unpredictable you should be looking at the Lions and their RB  carousel.  or the Eagles who are in full RBBC mode. 

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On 6/25/2018 at 12:29 PM, smeeze said:

sywzLEC.png

 

 

you forgot the most important part! his 'best comparable:
09c0d5e86dce7b7fe0a17f701f66c1b3.png

 

:P

 

I think his value is hard to pinpoint right now. There was a point last year when he was a must-start. He never wowed me with explosiveness or anything, but seemed to get the job done. I'm content to hold and see how it plays out. But I'm in no rush to start him this week. Honestly I'd feel more comfortable starting a guy like Austin Ekeler. 

Edited by RotoBird
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3 minutes ago, RotoBird said:

 

you forgot the most important part! his 'best comparable:
09c0d5e86dce7b7fe0a17f701f66c1b3.png

 

:P

 

I think his value is hard to pinpoint right now. There was a point last year when he was a must-start. He never wowed me with explosiveness or anything, but seemed to get the job done. I'm content to hold and see how it plays out. But I'm in no rush to start him this week. Honestly I'd feel more comfortable starting a guy like Austin Ekeler. 

The guy averaged 5.5 ypc on 81 attempts.  He didn't seem explosive to you?

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2 minutes ago, ccimore said:

The guy averaged 5.5 ypc on 81 attempts.  He didn't seem explosive to you?

Will give him a week though, first game back. 2 guys supposedly in front of him...Would rather start Alf to be honest. 

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2 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Will give him a week though, first game back. 2 guys supposedly in front of him...Would rather start Alf to be honest. 

Oh for sure.  I would not start him.  I just think he's a special runner.

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