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Aaron Jones 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, KB_IV said:

 

I won't debate you about Jones being the better runner. He is, obviously. But Williams is a better all around player. 

 

Jones is obviously the better runner, but Williams is more valuable is what you’re saying.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

Jones is obviously the better runner, but Williams is more valuable is what you’re saying.

 

 

FDA0118E-01D5-4318-BBA2-9817791294CD.jpeg

Why would a team like the packers, led by the highest paid and arguably best QB in the league, make it a priority to give snaps/touches to the best “pure runner” over the player who was the best all around player in all three phases (pass protection, running, receiving)?

 

the best hope for jones fans is that the packers deploy a true three-way timeshare and put jones out there when they want to run, Williams out there when they want to pass, and montgomery out there when they want to run a screen play or go 5-wide. 

 

Of course, that sort of substitution would be a dead giveaway to opposing defenses and it would end up defeating the purpose altogether.

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1 minute ago, mjb03003 said:

Why would a team like the packers, led by the highest paid and arguably best QB in the league, make it a priority to give snaps/touches to the best “pure runner” over the player who was the best all around player in all three phases (pass protection, running, receiving)?

 

the best hope for jones fans is that the packers deploy a true three-way timeshare and put jones out there when they want to run, Williams out there when they want to pass, and montgomery out there when they want to run a screen play or go 5-wide. 

 

Of course, that sort of substitution would be a dead giveaway to opposing defenses and it would end up defeating the purpose altogether.

 

The fatal flaw for quite a few of you Williams owners is that you believe Jones is a finished product in pass protection based on his rookie season.  It’s embarrassing.  Your typical rookie RB will be like a deer in headlights trying to figure out what defender is coming from where.

 

This will go in one ear and out the other, I have no doubt.

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7 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

The fatal flaw for quite a few of you Williams owners is that you believe Jones is a finished product in pass protection based on his rookie season.  It’s embarrassing.  Your typical rookie RB will be like a deer in headlights trying to figure out what defender is coming from where.

 

This will go in one ear and out the other, I have no doubt.

 

Not so. I believe Jones can (and will?) improve in pass protection and as a receiver. However preferring a player who needs to make strides in both departments over a player who is already receiving praise from the coaching staff and who has exhibited better skill in both areas (as a rookie himself) is puzzling to me. 

 

Jones’ path to snaps and touches is far more muddled than Willaims’ even before you factor in Jones’ suspension. 

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13 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

The fatal flaw for quite a few of you Williams owners is that you believe Jones is a finished product in pass protection based on his rookie season.  It’s embarrassing.  Your typical rookie RB will be like a deer in headlights trying to figure out what defender is coming from where.

 

This will go in one ear and out the other, I have no doubt.

 

Btw that “it’s embarrassing” comment was childish and unnecessarily inflammatory. 

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14 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

The fatal flaw for quite a few of you Williams owners is that you believe Jones is a finished product in pass protection based on his rookie season.  It’s embarrassing.  Your typical rookie RB will be like a deer in headlights trying to figure out what defender is coming from where.

 

This will go in one ear and out the other, I have no doubt.

 

Wasn't Williams a rookie last year, too? Wouldn't it stand to reason, going by your statement, that Williams should be (and is) improving, as well? If Jones is not a finished product as a second-year back, then Williams is not a finished product either...correct? 

 

I have zero shares of either RB. 

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12 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Not so. I believe Jones can (and will?) improve in pass protection and as a receiver. 

 

Jones is a very capable receiver. 

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29 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 

The fatal flaw for quite a few of you Williams owners is that you believe Jones is a finished product in pass protection based on his rookie season.  It’s embarrassing.  Your typical rookie RB will be like a deer in headlights trying to figure out what defender is coming from where.

 

This will go in one ear and out the other, I have no doubt.

Tommy lee jones you spent the whole day trying to prove your point when we already get what your trying to say!!! Will Smith would’ve let it go by now. Just let it go and move on!! 

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5 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

 

Jones is a very capable receiver. 

 

Aaron Jones

18 targets, 9 receptions, 22yds 

 

Jamaal Williams 

34 targets, 25 receptions, 262yds, 2TDs

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6 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Aaron Jones

18 targets, 9 receptions, 22yds 

 

Jamaal Williams 

34 targets, 25 receptions, 262yds, 2TDs

These stats are meaningless in attempting to say Jones isn't a capable receiving Back.

Edited by Bugs bunny
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4 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

These stats are meaningless in attempting to say Jones isn't a capable receiving Back.

 

Well, I mean, you can say small sample size and that would be true, but he’s caught half his targets and averaged about a  yard per attempt. 

 

Is anyone saying Jones is a better receiver than Williams? Or just that he’s “capable”?

 

because he hasn’t shown capability yet. 

Edited by mjb03003

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18 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Aaron Jones

18 targets, 9 receptions, 22yds 

 

Jamaal Williams 

34 targets, 25 receptions, 262yds, 2TDs

What if I told you Jones's drop rate was 5.6% while Williams's was 11.8%?

 

Who would you say is the better receiver then? Could it be that Williams simply had more catchable balls thrown to him last year? Yet Williams still dropped passes at a higher rate? 

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5 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Well, I mean, you can say small sample size and that would be true, but he’s caught half his targets and averaged about a  yard per attempt. 

 

Is anyone saying Jones is a better receiver than Williams? Or just that he’s “capable”?

 

because he hasn’t shown capability yet. 

Well it's not like they have had many opportunities to throw to him.  Game scripts, play calls, formations are all factors in him receiving opportunities to catch the ball.  They really didn't need to throw to him last year, doesn't mean he's not capable. Not to mention Ty and Williams were taking care of that roll last year.  In that small sample size Williams has a bigger drop rate than Jones. Does that make Jones the better receiving back? No . It's just all about opportunity and roles.  By the way Aaron caught 3 balls for 21 yards tonight.

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4 minutes ago, munde53 said:

What if I told you Jones's drop rate was 5.6% while Williams's was 11.8%?

 

Who would you say is the better receiver then? Could it be that Williams simply had more catchable balls thrown to him last year? Yet Williams still dropped passes at a higher rate? 

 

Thats an interesting stat and one I wouldn't completely ignore. However you're still looking and one guy turning his catches into very little and the other turning them into quite a lot. 

 

Atsome point actual production matters. And I'm not talking about week 4 preseason when third stringers and guys on the roster bubble are playing...

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Pass pro is important but it is secondary to being able to run the ball effectively. If Williams doesn't improve on his 3.6 ypc we will see a switch to Jones.  The best way to protect Rodgers is to keep him out of 2nd or 3rd and long.  

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You have to own Aaron Jones if you own Jamaal. That's all that needs to be said for those still drafting. You're basically committing to this backfield by picking either of them. Ty is a non-factor in the backfield unless both of these guys go down.

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31 minutes ago, n4sa said:

You have to own Aaron Jones if you own Jamaal. That's all that needs to be said for those still drafting. You're basically committing to this backfield by picking either of them. Ty is a non-factor in the backfield unless both of these guys go down.

I agree on owning both.

 

Jones was considered the better pass catcher in college (from what I’ve read) but hasn’t show it yet in the NFL.  Williams is clearly the better pass blocker, but the inferior runner.  I think Jones will eventually overtake Williams, but owning both is prudent.  If Williams wins you weeks in the beginning of the season, and Jones at the end... Does it matter as both contribute to wins?

 

I went Carson + Penny over Williams + Jones but the situations are similar (Penny also gets a poor pass blocking grade)

 

Williams + Jones is cheaper Carson + Penny, and it’s probably easier to land both for fantasy.

 

 

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2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I agree on owning both.

 

Jones was considered the better pass catcher in college (from what I’ve read) but hasn’t show it yet in the NFL.  Williams is clearly the better pass blocker, but the inferior runner.  I think Jones will eventually overtake Williams, but owning both is prudent.  If Williams wins you weeks in the beginning of the season, and Jones at the end... Does it matter as both contribute to wins?

 

I went Carson + Penny over Williams + Jones but the situations are similar (Penny also gets a poor pass blocking grade)

 

Williams + Jones is cheaper Carson + Penny, and it’s probably easier to land both for fantasy.

 

 


I would much rather have Williams + Jones because their offensive line is much better than Seattles. Obviously having Aaron Rodgers opens things up for even mediocre backs to move the chains.

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I think those relying on Williams' YPC last year are kind of fooling themselves into thinking he is some great receiving back. If I recall correctly, a ton of those yards came on really long screen passes. I believe there were two long screen passes that Williams may have housed last year, at least one of them he was completely untouched. Aaron Jones could have easily  done the same or similar in those situations. 

 

Jones is the man to own here. He took over GB's backfield for like 2 games before he got hurt last year, and he was playing with Hundley under center. This cat can run, really well, and can catch the ball fine. It's much more beneficial for an offense to have a n RB on the field who at least is a threat to run, with Williams on the field the defense pretty much knows the majority of the plays will be throws. I am drafting Jones everywhere I can. 

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if the proponents of Williams are guilty of making too much of last year's receiving stats and pass protection, and ignoring Jones' ability to improve in those areas, then proponents of Jones are guilty of making too much of Williams' YPC last season, and ignoring Williams' ability to improve in that area. 

 

At some point both sides need to agree that both players were rookies last season, both players were thrust into situations that they may not have been fully prepared for, and both players can and probably will be better in year 2 with extra preparation. Unfortunately for Jones, Williams gets a pretty big head start this season since Jones had an injury that cost him time and he is suspended for the first 2 weeks. I don't think it can be overstated how difficult it could be for Jones to fully supplant/overtake Williams if Williams comes out of the gate playing well. 

 

I don't dislike Jones' abilities, I dislike his situation/opportunity as it appears today. 

 

100% agree that the ideal situation is to own both backs and here's why:

I see the value of Williams/Jones being tied to one another, and I expect it will go one of two ways based on what Williams does in the first two weeks:

 

1) Williams starts the year performing at a high level. If this is the case, I could see Jones getting dropped, or he could probably be acquired as a very inexpensive insurance policy.

 

OR

 

2) Williams starts the year poorly. If this is the case, Jones' stock will probably be on the rise as people call for Jones to have a larger role at Williams' expense. 

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This is a tough backfield to peg.  I think people are totally forgetting Ty Montgomery is this equation.  So far I've drafted Aaron Jones in 2 of my completed drafts, with 2 more drafts coming this weekend.  The conundrum with this backfield is twofold.  For starters, GB backs tend to not be reliable in fantasy.   GB doesn't seem to be the type of team that features a guy, or running the ball, for whatever reason.  Second, is the fact that there are 3 players who each provide a different set of skills, or skill level, who have shown flashes of ability when on the field.   Strictly from a talent basis, Aaron Jones is the guy to own.  He's clearly imo the most talented of the trio.  From a drafting POV, I've been of the mind to wait till the last one is on the board in a round where the value is clear, and taking that guy.  So far it's been Jones, who I prefer in a vacuum anyway.  I do think that Williams is the most rounded back, albeit the least talented/explosive, and could very much take the lead role based on the coaching staffs trust in him.  There's also the outside shot that Ty Montgomery can stay healthy and outsnaps the other two.  Because of this I'm staying away from this backfield until very late in the draft, and am only drafting a piece of it as a lottery like investment.   

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3 hours ago, dicka24 said:

This is a tough backfield to peg.  I think people are totally forgetting Ty Montgomery is this equation.  So far I've drafted Aaron Jones in 2 of my completed drafts, with 2 more drafts coming this weekend.  The conundrum with this backfield is twofold.  For starters, GB backs tend to not be reliable in fantasy.   GB doesn't seem to be the type of team that features a guy, or running the ball, for whatever reason.  Second, is the fact that there are 3 players who each provide a different set of skills, or skill level, who have shown flashes of ability when on the field.   Strictly from a talent basis, Aaron Jones is the guy to own.  He's clearly imo the most talented of the trio.  From a drafting POV, I've been of the mind to wait till the last one is on the board in a round where the value is clear, and taking that guy.  So far it's been Jones, who I prefer in a vacuum anyway.  I do think that Williams is the most rounded back, albeit the least talented/explosive, and could very much take the lead role based on the coaching staffs trust in him.  There's also the outside shot that Ty Montgomery can stay healthy and outsnaps the other two.  Because of this I'm staying away from this backfield until very late in the draft, and am only drafting a piece of it as a lottery like investment.   

 

Until he gets hurt in week 4 and is Q for the rest of the season.  Guy cant stay on the field.  I think he has the most talent out of all three but durability is a big fat 0!

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38 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

Until he gets hurt in week 4 and is Q for the rest of the season.  Guy cant stay on the field.  I think he has the most talent out of all three but durability is a big fat 0!

 

I certainly wouldn't write him off. 

 

Packers coach Mike McCarthy said people will "see a bigger, stronger Ty Montgomery this year."

Montgomery stuck around in Green Bay over the offseason to work with Packers strength and conditioning coordinator Mark Lovat in hopes of improving his durability. "I know that I can be a really good football player; I just need to stay healthy," Montgomery said. "I’m looking forward to getting one full healthy season under my belt." Unlikely to get true lead-back workloads with Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones also vying for touches, Montgomery should have a better shot to stay healthy this season, but that competition also makes him much less interesting from a fantasy perspective.
 
 
Source: ESPN
 

ESPN's Rob Demovsky writes Ty Montgomery appears set for a "significant role in the offense."

Demovsky added Montgomery "didn't appear to lose any ground" to Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones during OTAs. "We have to take advantage of Ty's skills, and there's no question about that," coach Mike McCarthy said. "The offense is suited for that." While it still seems more likely Williams or Jones wins the early-down role, Montgomery is clearly not going away. He could end up being a value in the double-digit rounds.
 
 
Source: ESPN
Jun 11 - 9:36 AM

 

 

ESPN's Rob Demovsky writes Ty Montgomery has worked as the third-down back early in training camp.

According to Demovsky, Jamaal Williams has handled the majority of the "normal down-and-distance situations" while Montgomery has been in during "two-minute and no-huddle drives." Aaron Jones, who is currently sidelined by a hamstring injury and will serve a two-game suspension to start the season, should push Williams for the early-down work, but the passing-down job should be Montgomery's as long as he can stay healthy, making him a solid pick at his ninth-round ADP.
 
 
Source: ESPN
Jul 30 - 12:40 PM

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Just now, theSPANKER said:

 

I certainly wouldn't write him off. 

 

Packers coach Mike McCarthy said people will "see a bigger, stronger Ty Montgomery this year."

Montgomery stuck around in Green Bay over the offseason to work with Packers strength and conditioning coordinator Mark Lovat in hopes of improving his durability. "I know that I can be a really good football player; I just need to stay healthy," Montgomery said. "I’m looking forward to getting one full healthy season under my belt." Unlikely to get true lead-back workloads with Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones also vying for touches, Montgomery should have a better shot to stay healthy this season, but that competition also makes him much less interesting from a fantasy perspective.
 
 
Source: ESPN
 

ESPN's Rob Demovsky writes Ty Montgomery appears set for a "significant role in the offense."

Demovsky added Montgomery "didn't appear to lose any ground" to Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones during OTAs. "We have to take advantage of Ty's skills, and there's no question about that," coach Mike McCarthy said. "The offense is suited for that." While it still seems more likely Williams or Jones wins the early-down role, Montgomery is clearly not going away. He could end up being a value in the double-digit rounds.
 
 
Source: ESPN
Jun 11 - 9:36 AM

 

 

ESPN's Rob Demovsky writes Ty Montgomery has worked as the third-down back early in training camp.

According to Demovsky, Jamaal Williams has handled the majority of the "normal down-and-distance situations" while Montgomery has been in during "two-minute and no-huddle drives." Aaron Jones, who is currently sidelined by a hamstring injury and will serve a two-game suspension to start the season, should push Williams for the early-down work, but the passing-down job should be Montgomery's as long as he can stay healthy, making him a solid pick at his ninth-round ADP.
 
 
Source: ESPN
Jul 30 - 12:40 PM
 

 

I mean anything can happen but I'm not drafting the guy after 2 straight years of missing time.  They said that he "looked bigger and stronger" last year two, doesn't change the fact that he has a sickle cell disease and cant stay healthy.

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