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Aaron Jones 2018 Outlook

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He kinda reminds me of Kamara the way he bounces off tackles and his incredibly high yards per touch efficiency.

 

Only difference is he is a victim of this inept coaching staff

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2 hours ago, David Aames said:

looks good...however, if thats true about what rodgers said (15 carries) then he will just be a rb2. 15 carries is not alot

yeah - we were correct and Lebowski54  goes around laughing at peoples post about Jones getting a workhouse load.  He still doesn't but luckily Aaron Jones is so talented he went nuts on just 15 carries and 3 catches.  If he keeps getting around that his floor is a high end rb2!

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A-rod has to get his numbers you know. he probably thinks anything over 5 carries is enough. and don't you dare think about not letting him throw 4 times from the 2 yard line

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1 hour ago, FritzLn said:

A-rod has to get his numbers you know. he probably thinks anything over 5 carries is enough. and don't you dare think about not letting him throw 4 times from the 2 yard line

Seems that way at times, kinda like what Peyton Manning was always doing around the goal line.   

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This is the kind of mid-season WW pickup that we see every year that propels fantasy teams to the promised land.  

 

I didn't get him in one freaking league -_-

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3 minutes ago, Damn Yankee said:

This is the kind of mid-season WW pickup that we see every year that propels fantasy teams to the promised land.  

 

I didn't get him in one freaking league -_-

 

Easy fellow....people were saying those exact words when Marlon Mack when off a few weeks ago and notice what he did yesterday?  Nada.....

 

Yes, I rejoice over AJones and MMack’s success.....but neither are Gurley or Bell (Conner) ......yet.,let’s keep,watching (and hoping).

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8 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

 

Easy fellow....people were saying those exact words when Marlon Mack when off a few weeks ago and notice what he did yesterday?  Nada.....

 

Yes, I rejoice over AJones and MMack’s success.....but neither are Gurley or Bell (Conner) ......yet.,let’s keep,watching (and hoping).

 

Definitely not saying he (or Mack) are RB1 material...but RB2/Flex possible yes. Maybe the missing piece for a good team that is flexing the likes of a WR2/3 with upside, or someone like Matt Brieda.   I think AJ is a little more viable than Mack myself.  

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Well it took long enough but it seems we are finally here.  Congrats to everyone that weathered the storm and held on.  If usage like yesterday's continues, this guy could be a difference maker in critical weeks 13, 14, & 16. 

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Interesting fact I saw when looking over the stat lines for Jones. He's averaged 5.1 YPC or more in every game he's played this season...

 

Week 3 - 7.0 YPC (6 carries)

Week 4 - 5.9 YPC (11 carries)

Week 5 - 5.7 YPC (7 carries)

Week 6 - 5.1 YPC (8 carries)

Week 8 - 7.2 YPC (12 carries)

Week 9 - 5.4 YPC (14 carries)

Week 10 - 9.7 YPC (15 carries)

 

There are only 9 RB's in football with at least 50 carries, that have a 5.1 YPC average on the season...and Jones has achieved that average in every game he's played. 

Edited by Corleone
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Also, of yesterday's 18 total touches for Jones, 8 of them went for either 10+ yards or a touchdown. 

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And this from PFF this morning...

 

"Among all 69 running backs with at least 100 carries over the past two seasons, Aaron Jones leads in yards per carry (6.12). Among all 48 running backs with at least 150 carries over this span, his YPC is 15.5% better than the next-closest running back (Alvin Kamara, 5.24.) Despite seeing 72 fewer carries than teammate Jamaal Williams over this stretch, he totals 117 more rushing yards and three more rushing touchdowns."

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5 hours ago, Corleone said:

And this from PFF this morning...

 

"Among all 69 running backs with at least 100 carries over the past two seasons, Aaron Jones leads in yards per carry (6.12). Among all 48 running backs with at least 150 carries over this span, his YPC is 15.5% better than the next-closest running back (Alvin Kamara, 5.24.) Despite seeing 72 fewer carries than teammate Jamaal Williams over this stretch, he totals 117 more rushing yards and three more rushing touchdowns."

 

Here's some of my own research on top of this stat, using Pro Football Reference's Play Index. Jones has played 19 career games, with 154 career carries. I took a look at all RB's since 2000, who had at least 150 carries in the first 19 games of their career, and achieved at least 5.5 YPC. Here's the full list:
 

      Rushing
Rk Player From To Lg Tm G W L T W-L% Att Yds Y/A TD
1 Aaron Jones 2017 2018 NFL GNB 19 9 10 0 0.474 154 942 6.12 8
2 Clinton Portis 2002 2003 NFL DEN 19 12 7 0 0.632 319 1799 5.64 17
3 Alvin Kamara 2017 2018 NFL NOR 19 13 6 0 0.684 157 869 5.54 10
Edited by Corleone
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6 hours ago, Damn Yankee said:

This is the kind of mid-season WW pickup that we see every year that propels fantasy teams to the promised land.  

 

I didn't get him in one freaking league -_-

WW pickup? I didn't see him get dropped in any of my leagues. He was drafted.

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6 hours ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

Definitely not saying he (or Mack) are RB1 material...but RB2/Flex possible yes. Maybe the missing piece for a good team that is flexing the likes of a WR2/3 with upside, or someone like Matt Brieda.   I think AJ is a little more viable than Mack myself.  

 

Jones should be very close to an RB1 ros.   Not meaning he's any particular fantasy team's #1RB but that he's in the top 12.   Unless it's a clearly bad matchup, I'll start him over Michel.   I would think he's only below the true workhorses.   Or at least the very top of that group.

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11 minutes ago, devaster said:

WW pickup? I didn't see him get dropped in any of my leagues. He was drafted.

 

Yea...WW pickup.  He wasn't drafted in any of the 4 leagues I'm in...but we carry short rosters in all 4 leagues so Jamaal Williams was the guy everyone went for.  In two of the leagues, he got picked up after he finally showed a little in week 4, only to be dropped in both of them after week 6 due to the massive under-performance in weeks 5 & 6).   Picked back up again after week 8 (this is when I tried to grab him and missed in all three leagues).  

 

Only big roster leagues were drafting a guy not playing the first two games who's status was muddled with the likes of Jamaal Williams.  He certainly didn't do enough through week 6 to garner a draft or WW pickup...averaging 8 touches per game...out weeks 1/2...1 TD in 4 games.  

 

It's really not that much of a mystery as to why I would say he's a good WW pickup in most leagues.

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14 hours ago, oban14 said:

Delicious pasta.

 

I would start saquon against the best defense, over jones against the worst. If jones does this for six games in a row i may change that.

My post came off as completely idiotic, i laughed when i read it again. (Went to the Tits game and had a lot to drink.)

 

What I'm thinking is...is it possible Saquon is at risk of being shelved? G Men SUCK and i dont see what they gain by putting him at risk behind that garbage line. Of course hes better, but its difficult to truat his situation. Barkley is also approaching a tough gauntlet of defenses. On top of that, the team could get worse if Lauletta plays and is somehow worse than Eli.

 

Three big reasons why I'd prefer Jones.

 

Jones, on the other hand, is proving himself a big part of the puzzle on a team that needs exactly what he can provide.

 

If I could parlay Barkley into maybe Hopkins + a TE, I would, since Jones is hitting his stride like he is.

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17 minutes ago, DrDoom9 said:

Jones is really good. It’s baffling to me that people thought Williams would get anything more than 30% of snaps moving forward after witnessing the sequence of events that transpired leading up to this week. Jones is crucial to the overall success of the Packers. Easily top 12 ROS 

 

I thought this was hyperbolic but looking at things closer I can only come up with 10 names I'd certainly take over him. Gurley, Gordon, Kamara, Hunt, Barkley, Conner, Elliot, McCaffrey, DJ, Mixon. The next 10 or so I have issue sorting between for a myriad of reasons but White, Michel, Fournette, Ingram, Chubb, Cook, Mack, Cohen, Lindsay, KJ and Jones I think are in the conversation for the spots after those top 10 who I consider clear RB1s due to their talent and opportunities. Jones has the talent and his opportunities are trending up so I don't think it is impossible for him to join that tier in the near future.

Edited by Jaw1
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56 minutes ago, mmurph20 said:

My post came off as completely idiotic, i laughed when i read it again. (Went to the Tits game and had a lot to drink.)

 

What league do they play in? Double-D League? ?

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Even though he would just be my flex, I still have pause starting him on Thursday. Reason being, I see it as a very competitive, Rodgers-airing-it-out-type of game. Am I over thinking it??

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Just now, JJ1223 said:

Even though he would just be my flex, I still have pause starting him on Thursday. Reason being, I see it as a very competitive, Rodgers-airing-it-out-type of game. Am I over thinking it??

Yes.  You should not bench him ROS, regardless of matchup.

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What was that ARod - did you say 30 carries this Thursday against Seahawks??

 

Aaron Rodgers believes the Packers "need to continue to give [Aaron Jones] more opportunities."

Rodgers has been advocating for Jones all season, and there is no reason for him to stop after the running back broke out for 145 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries against the Dolphins. Jones is already the clear No. 1 in Green Bay, and it sounds like his role could continue to grow. He is almost a must-start this week against the Seahawks.
 
 
Nov 13 - 12:40 PM
Edited by JetsAwesome
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39 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

What was that ARod - did you say 30 carries this Thursday against Seahawks??

 

Aaron Rodgers believes the Packers "need to continue to give [Aaron Jones] more opportunities."

Rodgers has been advocating for Jones all season, and there is no reason for him to stop after the running back broke out for 145 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries against the Dolphins. Jones is already the clear No. 1 in Green Bay, and it sounds like his role could continue to grow. He is almost a must-start this week against the Seahawks.
 
 
Nov 13 - 12:40 PM

 

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19 hours ago, JJ1223 said:

Even though he would just be my flex, I still have pause starting him on Thursday. Reason being, I see it as a very competitive, Rodgers-airing-it-out-type of game. Am I over thinking it??

Depends on options. I love this guy, he runs hard, fast and has been great. Packers Oline is pretty good as well. I have him on my bench with Fournette now unwillingly with barkley, gordon in. Julio, cooks and Sanders as my flex. Im having a miserable time pulling sanders out of my flex due to a good match up and just giving up AJG for him. 

 

Jones with lesser options is a must start. Seattle has been tough (think they are hardest) against qbs this year...Fantasy wise. This could be another 100+/2 td game for jones. Seattle run d has been middle of the road if I recall stats correctly

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On 11/12/2018 at 1:17 AM, sSektor said:

 

I don't see how anyone in their right mind can think about benching Saquon after seeing what he did against the Eagles. Aaron Jones is electric but he couldn't hold Saquons jock.

How about now Saquon last night? Battled his way to less than 20 pts against the lowly Niners. 

 

On 11/12/2018 at 1:06 AM, sSektor said:

 

Saving this obscene comment as a copypasta template.

 

2019 edition preview:

 

Duke Johnson is necessary to his team's success, whereas Gurley is pry going to end up on IR or rested in a lost season for the Rams. I'm currently 9-1 and am 100% right like I have been all season.

 

 

 

 

 

Lets reconvene at the end of the season

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