Aaron Jones 2018 Outlook

[DezedandConfused 2,587]

11 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

Bears defense is really hit or miss against RBs.  When they do well, they really shut a guy down (see: GB week 1, SEA, TB, NYJ, MIN week 11).  Other times, guys are running wild (see: ARI, MIA, NE, DETx2, NYG). 

 

There isn't super strong correlation, but obviously they do better against bad teams/bad RBs, and worse against good teams/good RBs (duh).  I do believe that GB in week 15 of the 2018 season would fall under the good team/good RB category.  Again, not super strong correlation here.

 

Caveat: Gurley's stinker last night really throws a wrench into things, but also a potential outlier since the whole team seemed to stink.  Plus, GB is used to playing in cold weather and @CHI, whereas the Rams are certainly not.

 

In summary, I think we've gotta fire him up.  He hasn't failed us in like 7 weeks.  You don't get up from a hot hand, amiright?

 

Khalil injured his ankle week 6, which he played on not 100% on week 7, then sat out the next week. (from week 9 Bears D got back on track). They also kept D.Johnson to 2.6 yds a carry (12 carries, 31 yards) , how is that running wild?

[griffin727 950]

5 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

Bears defense is really hit or miss against RBs.  When they do well, they really shut a guy down (see: GB week 1, SEA, TB, NYJ, MIN week 11).  Other times, guys are running wild (see: ARI, MIA, NE, DETx2, NYG). 

 

There isn't super strong correlation, but obviously they do better against bad teams/bad RBs, and worse against good teams/good RBs (duh).  I do believe that GB in week 15 of the 2018 season would fall under the good team/good RB category.  Again, not super strong correlation here.

 

Caveat: Gurley's stinker last night really throws a wrench into things, but also a potential outlier since the whole team seemed to stink.  Plus, GB is used to playing in cold weather and @CHI, whereas the Rams are certainly not.

 

In summary, I think we've gotta fire him up.  He hasn't failed us in like 7 weeks.  You don't get up from a hot hand, amiright?

 

 

 

As always it depends on your options. If Ware is active and healthy I am likely playing him over Jones. The Bears matchup and Williams/Philbin issue is enough pause for me to make the change.

[Panthor 813]

1 minute ago, griffin727 said:

 

 

As always it depends on your options. If Ware is active and healthy I am likely playing him over Jones. The Bears matchup and Williams/Philbin issue is enough pause for me to make the change.

 

there is no Williams/Philbin issue, what are you talking about?

[griffin727 950]

11 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

there is no Williams/Philbin issue, what are you talking about?

 

I think we have established that based on one game we really don't know if there is or not. Williams started the game and played more snaps in the first half. The reasoning we have no idea. I'd like to believe Philbin suddenly realized Williams is a JAG and he should be playing Jones but do we really know?

[TTo34 2,947]

17 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

 

I think we have established that based on one game we really don't know if there is or not. Williams started the game and played more snaps in the first half. The reasoning we have no idea. I'd like to believe Philbin suddenly realized Williams is a JAG and he should be playing Jones but do we really know?

 

Maybe this is more basic than we all think.  Like pouring out a forty for your fallen homie, maybe this was simply Philbin's way of honoring the departed McCarthy.  By playing your inferior players and marrying that with deprecated play-calling.

 

[Impreza178 6,046]

1 hour ago, griffin727 said:

 

I think we have established that based on one game we really don't know if there is or not. Williams started the game and played more snaps in the first half. The reasoning we have no idea. I'd like to believe Philbin suddenly realized Williams is a JAG and he should be playing Jones but do we really know?

You’re going to feel awfully silly going on and on about this.   

 

Jones touches: 20

Williams touches: 4

 

Worrisome.     

Yes,  you should play Spencer Ware instead.  

[FritzLn 866]

it was a blowout tho

 

they're saving their best RB

[griffin727 950]

53 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

You’re going to feel awfully silly going on and on about this.   

 

Jones touches: 20

Williams touches: 4

 

Worrisome.     

Yes,  you should play Spencer Ware instead.  

 

I hope I look really dumb for that. I really do. I wish we had at least an explanation of why Jones was riding the bench most of the first half. Do reporters bother with questions like this anymore? I mean there had to be a reason.

[JJ1223 1,848]

6 hours ago, DezedandConfused said:

Khalil injured his ankle week 6, which he played on not 100% on week 7, then sat out the next week. (from week 9 Bears D got back on track). They also kept D.Johnson to 2.6 yds a carry (12 carries, 31 yards) , how is that running wild?

True. However DJ also had 4 recs for 30 plus a TD, point being a decent fantasy day, which is ultimately what matters. 

[Asapjoshy 240]

What we thinking about AJ this week against the Bears stout defense ?

[youngrice 1,303]

6 hours ago, griffin727 said:

 

I hope I look really dumb for that. I really do. I wish we had at least an explanation of why Jones was riding the bench most of the first half. Do reporters bother with questions like this anymore? I mean there had to be a reason.

But Jones wasn't riding the bench most of the first half.   Williams got the first series, Jones was in on the next two series and Williams was in on the final series of the half.  The second half Jones got 5 of the 6 series.  Hell I agree its not ideal and I was yelling at my tv screen when my opponent had CMC score 2 tds.  All while my player was not starting.  But at this point I don't think many of us have a better option then a guy that has been a RB1 over the past 5 weeks.

[Asapjoshy 240]

Who are some RBS value wise you’d play over Jones. And some you’d play Jones over ? For value sake this week

[youngrice 1,303]

10 minutes ago, Asapjoshy said:

Who are some RBS value wise you’d play over Jones. And some you’d play Jones over ? For value sake this week

Gurley, Barkley, CMC, Kamara, Zeke, Gordon(if healthy), Mixon, Chubb, Lindsay for sure.  Then I would have to think about Fournette, Ware, DJ, Conner or Samuels.  

[HOF12 348]

Definitely start jones, i think arod and the pack have something to prove. Divisional games always bring out the best in teams. 

Only rb i would start over aaron jones this week would be 

saquan 

zeke 

Gurley 

Mixon 

and cook 

based on pure match up. 

I know there is better rb i did not list but that’s just my ranking 

[eg4190 883]

11 hours ago, griffin727 said:

 

I hope I look really dumb for that. I really do. I wish we had at least an explanation of why Jones was riding the bench most of the first half. Do reporters bother with questions like this anymore? I mean there had to be a reason.

 

The reason is always something ridiculous like “he missed curfew” or “he talked back to the coach.”  He likely broke some stupid team rule and his punishment was that he didn’t get the start and was benched for a series. Then the Pack couldn’t stay on the field for most of the first half, and the issue looked worse than it was.

 

This is one of the most aggravating things that can happen in fantasy. I still remember when Joique Bell was benched for the first half during fantasy semifinals because he was late to practice or something, and it almost cost me a title.  But given what Jones did in the second half (and what Williams always fails to do), there’s zero reason to believe Jones lost his job or that this is a timeshare.

[JetsAwesome 638]

4 hours ago, HOF12 said:

Definitely start jones, i think arod and the pack have something to prove. Divisional games always bring out the best in teams. 

Only rb i would start over aaron jones this week would be 

saquan 

zeke 

Gurley 

Mixon 

and cook 

based on pure match up. 

I know there is better rb i did not list but that’s just my ranking 

Yeah Jones even with the matchup should be considered a top 10-12 RB play so most people still alive should be starting him at least as a flex.

[General Gannicus 308]

The only thing keeping me interested in starting Jones this week is the Rodgers "We can run the table and get in" talk from two weeks ago so at least I know they haven't given up yet like the Jags have with Fournette suffering because of it....

 

A smart coaching staff would unleash Jones this game and give him 18+ carries and like 8-10 targets to keep Chicago close to the line and then kill them with play action...

 

Instead it may/will be a nominal Jones up the middle on 1st for 3 yards before Rodgers is right back in the shotgun and under pressure all game because he "is the captain now" and would rather it be 100% in his control even if it is detrimental to their chances...

 

I have a few other choices I could use instead of Jones but I'd hate to not use him and then for some crazy crazy reason this coaching staff actually gets it right and he is the most productive packer this week...

[Joe Odam 925]

I know it's crunch time but can we please try and keep the "who should I start" discussions out of this forum and stick to analysis?

[Impreza178 6,046]

37 minutes ago, General Gannicus said:

The only thing keeping me interested in starting Jones this week is the Rodgers "We can run the table and get in" talk from two weeks ago so at least I know they haven't given up yet like the Jags have with Fournette suffering because of it....

 

A smart coaching staff would unleash Jones this game and give him 18+ carries and like 8-10 targets to keep Chicago close to the line and then kill them with play action...

 

Instead it may/will be a nominal Jones up the middle on 1st for 3 yards before Rodgers is right back in the shotgun and under pressure all game because he "is the captain now" and would rather it be 100% in his control even if it is detrimental to their chances...

 

I have a few other choices I could use instead of Jones but I'd hate to not use him and then for some crazy crazy reason this coaching staff actually gets it right and he is the most productive packer this week...

 

Since week 8 he has had the same role with almost the same production EVERY WEEK.    He’s outtouched JW 4 to 1 in that span, and outscored him far more than that.   If you’re hoping for Gurley or Saquon production then you’ll be disappointed, but Jones is one of the safest bets going for 14-20 ppr pts.  

 

Its ok for JW to have a few series...or even out snap Jones in stretches-  that’s par for the course with 90% of starting rbs.    Williams doesn’t do anything but block.   4 carries and 0 catches last game.     

 

The bears are a tough D but the Packers are well aware of what’s coming.   This isn’t some warm weather or dome team with a qb who can’t move and folds when the play goes off schedule.   It’s Rodgers.   And the worse the pass rush is...the more jones will be needed as the outlet to compliment his 11-17 carries and 2-3 GL chances.     

 

Roll out confidently

[griffin727 950]

I'm back on the Jones train (can't trust Ware's health on short week). I'm not optimistic for him to light it up, but I'd take 80-100 total yards with a chance at a score and 4 or 5 catches as a floor. Perhaps that's a bit much for his floor?

[Joe Odam 925]

20 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

I'm back on the Jones train (can't trust Ware's health on short week). I'm not optimistic for him to light it up, but I'd take 80-100 total yards with a chance at a score and 4 or 5 catches as a floor. Perhaps that's a bit much for his floor?

yes....too much.

His floor is what you saw out of Gurley last week. With that said, I believe the best way to beat the pass rush is to run straight at it. The difference in blocking between Williams and Jones is NOT enough for them to all of the sudden feel good about dropping Rodgers back a million times. Now, whether or not Rodgers has the humility to recognize that is a totally different story. I believe Jones' success hinges totally on whether or not he scores. I believe that he will, thus I am starting him. 

[Corleone 1,962]

22 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Since week 8 he has had the same role with almost the same production EVERY WEEK.    He’s outtouched JW 4 to 1 in that span, and outscored him far more than that.   If you’re hoping for Gurley or Saquon production then you’ll be disappointed, but Jones is one of the safest bets going for 14-20 ppr pts.  

 

Its ok for JW to have a few series...or even out snap Jones in stretches-  that’s par for the course with 90% of starting rbs.    Williams doesn’t do anything but block.   4 carries and 0 catches last game.     

 

The bears are a tough D but the Packers are well aware of what’s coming.   This isn’t some warm weather or dome team with a qb who can’t move and folds when the play goes off schedule.   It’s Rodgers.   And the worse the pass rush is...the more jones will be needed as the outlet to compliment his 11-17 carries and 2-3 GL chances.     

 

Roll out confidently

 

Week 8 it indeed an important week to note for Jones. That was the first game out of the bye for Green Bay, and there definitely has been an increase in usage for Jones since then. I tracked the most RB points since Week 8, for all guys with 70 or more points since then (note this is with a .25 PPR format).

 

**Week 8 through Week 14**

--CMC: 22.29 PPG (156 points in 7 games)

--Zeke: 19.33 PPG (116 points in 6 games)

--Saquan: 18.53 PPG (111.2 points in 6 games)

--Conner: 16.57 PPG (99.4 points in 6 games)

--Gurley: 16.10 PPG (96.6 points in 6 games)

--Lindsay: 15.42 PPG (92.5 points in 6 games)

--Chubb: 15.40 PPG (92.4 points in 6 games)

--Kamara: 15.04 PPG (105.3 points in 7 games)

--Aaron Jones: 14.20 PPG (99.4 points in 7 games)

--D.Henry: 13.72 PPG (82.3 points in 6 games)

--Mixon: 13.23 PPG (79.4 points in 6 games)

--L.Miller: 11.87 PPG (71.2 points in 6 games)

--Cohen: 11.01 PPG (77.1 points in 7 games)

 

[jtbgator 1,869]

25 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

I'm back on the Jones train (can't trust Ware's health on short week). I'm not optimistic for him to light it up, but I'd take 80-100 total yards with a chance at a score and 4 or 5 catches as a floor. Perhaps that's a bit much for his floor?

 

1 minute ago, Joe Odam said:

yes....too much.

His floor is what you saw out of Gurley last week. With that said, I believe the best way to beat the pass rush is to run straight at it. The difference in blocking between Williams and Jones is NOT enough for them to all of the sudden feel good about dropping Rodgers back a million times. Now, whether or not Rodgers has the humility to recognize that is a totally different story. I believe Jones' success hinges totally on whether or not he scores. I believe that he will, thus I am starting him. 

 

Agree, too much. However, these 2 teams know each other well, so it should be a competitive game. I think most overestimated the Rams last week. They're not a cold weather team and temps in CHI were in the 20's. GB of course plays well in the cold.

 

I'd say something around 70-80 yards rushing and 25 yards receiving for Jones. He likely won't bust a long TD since CHI's D is fast; just gotta hope for a GL plunge.

[dropshadows 269]

Not excited, but confidence is raised just a tiny little bit in my PPR matchup with his pass catching abilities.

[jtbgator 1,869]

10 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

Week 8 it indeed an important week to note for Jones. That was the first game out of the bye for Green Bay, and there definitely has been an increase in usage for Jones since then. I tracked the most RB points since Week 8, for all guys with 70 or more points since then (note this is with a .25 PPR format).

 

**Week 8 through Week 14**

--CMC: 22.29 PPG (156 points in 7 games)

--Zeke: 19.33 PPG (116 points in 6 games)

--Saquan: 18.53 PPG (111.2 points in 6 games)

--Conner: 16.57 PPG (99.4 points in 6 games)

--Gurley: 16.10 PPG (96.6 points in 6 games)

--Lindsay: 15.42 PPG (92.5 points in 6 games)

--Chubb: 15.40 PPG (92.4 points in 6 games)

--Kamara: 15.04 PPG (105.3 points in 7 games)

--Aaron Jones: 14.20 PPG (99.4 points in 7 games)

--D.Henry: 13.72 PPG (82.3 points in 6 games)

--Mixon: 13.23 PPG (79.4 points in 6 games)

--L.Miller: 11.87 PPG (71.2 points in 6 games)

--Cohen: 11.01 PPG (77.1 points in 7 games)

 

 

Nice post. This makes me feel better about trading away Kamara this year (for Landry, Gronk, Ekeler, Ridley). Also traded for Jones (gave McCoy) right around that same time.

 

--Chubb: 15.40 PPG (92.4 points in 6 games)

--Kamara: 15.04 PPG (105.3 points in 7 games)

--Aaron Jones: 14.20 PPG (99.4 points in 7 games)

 

Sincerely,

CMC, Chubb, Jones owner